Forest Restoration and Management in a Changing Climate: Implications for North

Shore WatershedsMark A. White, Meredith Cornett

The Nature ConservancyMatthew Duveneck and Robert Scheller, Portland

State University, Portland OR.

Introduction• TNC Forest Restoration: forest,

watershed, and riparian zone goals

• Range of natural variation (RNV) and forest restoration

• Forest restoration and climate change

• Beyond RNV-climate adaptive management

Conifer Restoration Sites Chris Dunham-TNC Northeast Minnesota

• Plant 200,000 – 300,000 trees/ year

• Browse protection on 2500 ac/ year

• Release 500 acres per year

• Spend $250,000 per year

Forest and Stream GoalsMesic Hardwoods‐ Selective management

‐ Maintain continuous canopy cover‐ Plant white pine, cedar, spruce in gaps→Less sediments delivered→Better maintenance of LWD inputs

Riparian Forest‐Upland Fire Dependent ‐ Plant conifers in riparian zone gaps‐ Plant conifers in recent harvests away from streams→Be er maintenance of LWD inputs, shade→Sub‐basin, long‐term: attenuate runoff‐damp peak flows

Natural Variability and Biodiversity ConservationMN, USA

Boreal hardwood-coniferDry-mesic jack pine-black spruceDry-mesic white pine-red pineLowland coniferMesic birch-aspen-spruce-firMesic white pine-red pineNorthern Hardwood-conifer

Objectives:RNV Historical reference

conditions- Species Diversity- Structural Complexity- Spatial Pattern

Water Quality + QuantityClimate Change?

Source: White and Host 2000

Approach: Use spatially dynamic model that incorporates climate, disturbance and seed dispersal LANDIS II

Forest restoration in a mixed ownership landscape under climate change

Ravenscroft, C., Scheller, R.M., Mladenoff, D.J. White, M.A. 2010. Ecological Applications. 20:327-346

Understand relative influence of climate and disturbance on regional species composition trends

Potential Climatic Changes(Ravenscroft et al. 2010)

Low Emissions: Restoration can maintain boreal species-increase in Acer spp.

High Emissions: Loss of boreal spp. regardless of management

Loss of forest: mismatch between climate & management

Large increase in red maple

Oak/hickory: dispersal limited

Model Climate Adaptive ManagementResilience-Increase Adaptive Capacity• Mix uneven/even-aged, higher retention• Manage for species tolerant of future

climate-overcome migration limits• Red oak, bur oak, yellow birch, basswood,

white pine• Response diversity-life history traits• Favorable response-environmental

change Resistance:• Increase area of forest reserves-buffer

riparian corridors- 1500 m

Above ground biomass

Species Diversity

Temperate Boreal

SummaryLow Emissions• Resistance and resilience-maintain boreal species• Both maintain or increase species diversityHigh Emissions• Resistance not effective in maintaining boreal

species• Lower resilience-less diversity, productivity,

ecosystem services• Resilience-increased productivity and diversity-

maintain ecosystem services-water quality-quantityDuveneck, M, Scheller R., White M. 2014. Effects of forest management resistance and resilience strategies in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region. In press, Canadian Journal of Forest ResearchDuveneck, M, Scheller R., White M., Handler, S, Ravenscroft, C. 2014. Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity. In press, Ecosphere.

Adaptation Forestry in Minnesota’s North Woods

• Plant climate tolerant species in NSU with stock from different seed zones

• Tree SpeciesWhite pine, Bur oak, Red oak, Basswood

• Structural TreatmentsGap, shelterwood w/reserves, thinning, clearcut w/reserves

Adaptation Forestry88,000 seedlings‐2013‐2014bur oak, red oak, white pine, basswood‐northern and southern seed zones

21 sites, 4 native plant communities

34 research plots, 120 seedlings:red oak, bur oak, and white pine 2 seed zones

Compare suitability: growth, mortality, phenology

Collaborators

TNCMeredith Cornett, Director of ScienceChris Dunham, NEMN Forest Manager Kim Hall, Climate Change Ecologist Mark White, Forest Ecologist

University of MN – DuluthJulie Etterson, Associate Professor Laura Kavajecz, MS Candidate

Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science

Chris Swanston, DirectorStephen Handler, Northwoods Coordinator

Support: Wildlife Conservation Society-Climate Adaptation Fundthrough Doris Duke Charitable FoundationConservation Partners Legacy-MNNational Science FoundationCox Family Fund for Science and ResearchUniversity of Minnesota-Duluth

• Short term-resistance strategies can help maintain watershed functions-flow regimes, sediments, LWD inputs

• Longer term: high uncertainty, increased risk-forest change/loss-degraded watershed-riparian zone functions –high emissions

• Adaptive management-resistance + resilience

• Monitor forest and watershed change

• Research: impacts of climate change, land use change, forest changes on watershed functions

Wrap-up

Questions?

Mark_white@tnc.org