forestry program biofuels from oil to alcohol addiction? sten nilsson iiasa, laxenburg, austria...
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Forestry Program
Biofuels ― From Oil to Alcohol Addiction?
Sten NilssonIIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
EUROFORENET Conference, Brussels, 20 November 2007
Forestry Program
Solar Energy Based on the efficiency of biological
collection of solar energy: 4000 m2 of land/person is required for replacement of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the present world energy system (2080 w/person)
250–700g water is needed for the photosynthesis of 1g of dry biomass
Constraints by available land, water, etc.
Source: Burkhardt (2006)
Forestry Program
Bio Resources
All of the products are expected to have future increased demand―with increased demand competition is increasing
Convergence of the markets over time for the products above. Bio raw material will be priced on its energy content
Competition of Resources
Food Production
Forest Industrial
Production
Chemical Industry
HeatElectricity Biofuels
Forestry Program
Underlying Forces for Convergence
Economic security (i.e., rising real price of oil)
Environmental security (i.e., climate change)
National Security (i.e., dependence on Middle East/Russia)
Political security (i.e., support for rural development and rural votes)
Concerns related to:
Forestry Program
Global Agriculture Production of Biomass (in billion ton BMQ)
1992/1994 2030
Available for Energy
Production in 2030
Grain 2.25 2.80–3.00
Vegetable Oil Production
120 million tons of oil 250 50 million tons
Agriculture Residues
3.35 4.20–4.45 1.30–1.40
Manure 2.50 3.10–3.60 0.85–1.00
Food rests, etc. 1.10 1.95–1.95 1.10–1.10
9.20 12.05–13.00 3.25–3.50
25–30%
Source: Modified from Berndes, et al. (2007)
Forestry Program
Forest Biomass
Source: FAO (2006)
435 billion tons of above-ground biomassAvailable for utilization: 5–7 billion tons
ForestOther Wooded LandOther LandWater
Forestry Program
Examples of Conversations of Different Types of Biomass to Different Energy Carriers
Ligno cellulose plants, dry(wood from forests and bioenergy forests)
Cellulose rich plants, dry (straw)
By-products from forest industry (sawdust, black liquor)
Sugar and starch rich plants
Wet bio material (pasture, corn, manure, biological waste, drainage)
Oil rich plants (rape seed)
Chips, pellets, etc., combustion for production of heat and electricity
Fermentation to ethanol (first generation)
Hydrolysis and fermentation to ethanol (second generation)
Termic gasification: electricity; Synthetic gases for production of second generation biofuels, e.g., DME, methanol, FT-diesel and methane
Decomposition to biogas―heat, electricity, biofuel
Production of RME (biodiesel, first generation)
Source: Börjesson (2007)
Forestry Program
Biomass OpportunitiesBioenergy: Electricity and heat from biomass
Liquid Biofuels for Transportation: Examples are ethanol, methanol, FT-diesel, RME (rape methyl ester), DME (dimethyl ether)
Biogas―An in-between Biofuel: Can substitute natural gas and feed into existing natural gas pipeline systems; Can also be processed into a gas-to-liquid
Hydrogen: Can be produced from biomass and coal third generation of fuels)
?
Forestry Program
Biorefinery
BioethanolEsterification
Methanol
Herbaceousbiomass
Torrefaction
Biomasspre treatment
Oil/sugarseparation
Flash pyrolysis
Syngas Production
SynthesisBiodiesel
DME
Chemicals
Woodybiomass
Plantation
Plastics
Electricity
Gas cleaning
tars
SLURRY
Waste material
BioethanolEsterification
Methanol
Herbaceousbiomass
Torrefaction
Biomasspre treatment
Oil/sugarseparation
Flash pyrolysis
Syngas Production
SynthesisBiodiesel
DME
Chemicals
Woodybiomass
Plantation
Plastics
Electricity
Gas cleaning
tars
SLURRY
Waste material
Source: Girard and Fallot (2006)
Forestry Program
Value Added
Pulp/Paper
Source: Hildingsson (2006)
Plants are the most fantastic and efficient chemists in producing complex molecules
Forestry ProgramSource: Svenska Grafikbyrån (2007)
Forestry Program
What To Do?Resource Efficiency: High productivity of biomass,
high rate of re-utilization of rest products
Energy Efficiency: Low energy input and high energy output. Low losses in the energy chain
Environmental Efficiency:
Sustained or improved local environment Low emissions of GHGs and air pollutants
Cost Efficiency: Low production costs
Forestry Program
Resource Efficiency
Source: Obersteiner and Nilsson (2006)
Forestry Program
Resource Efficiency
Wheat
Straw
Rape
Sugar Beet
Pasture
Corn
Hamp
Willow
Poplar
Spruce/Pine
Forest Residues
13%
4%
17%
12%
8%
10%
13%
5%
3%
5%
3%
Energy input (production, harvest and transport 50 km) per produced ton of biomass in percentage: Sweden
Source: Pålsson (2007)
Forestry Program
Energy Efficiency
Heat and Electricity of Biomass: Conversion losses 10–20%
Losses can be kept especially low in co-production of heat and electricity
Biofuels: Losses 30–65% depending on conversion technology and fuel
Forestry Program
Energy EfficiencyEnergy yield Mwh/ha and year by poplar energy forests: Southern Sweden
Source: Pålsson (2007)
Ethanol 15
CHP 40
Co-production of heat (2/3) and electricity (1/3) 40
Energy combines (ethanol 9; heat 16; electricity 7) 32
Electricity and fuels are more valuable energy carriers. Not enough just to look at high energy yields and security aspects
Forestry Program
Energy Efficiency
The two highest yields are associated with cellulosic ethanol―the switch grass and poplar
For conventional ethanol, the top yields are from sugar beets in France and sugar cane from Brazil―roughly double the yields from corn in the US
The above ethanol yields are from optimal growing regions. The energy content of ethanol is about 67% that of gasoline
Source: Roberts (2007)
Forestry Program
Energy Efficiency
For biodiesel, oil palm in S.E. Asia is a strong first―roughly 5x rape seed and 10x soybean. This primarily reflects a much higher oil content per kg and per hectare
The biodiesel yields estimates are conservative. The energy content of biodiesel is about 90% that of petroleum diesel
Source: Roberts (2007)
Forestry Program
Energy Efficiency
Gasoline: Engine 75; Fuel Chain 30; Total: 105
Diesel: Engine 50; Fuel Chain 5; Total: 55
Flexfuel: Engine Fossil 20; Fuel Chain Fossil 5;
Engine Ethanol 70; Fuel Chain Ethanol 125; Total: 220
Kwh/100 km Medium-sized car
Saved C kg/100 km if the biomass used for ethanol production was instead used for replacing fossil heat: 20–25
Forestry Program
Environmental Efficiency
One ton of wood replaces oil (heating) → Reduction of 1.3 ton CO2
One ton of wood replaces coal-based electricity production → Reduction of 1.5 tons of CO2
One ton of wood replaces gasoline by biofuels → Reduction of 0.8 ton of CO2
Forestry Program
Environmental Efficiency
Perennial plants (forests, energy grass, etc.) normally have less local environmental footprints than single year plants (agriculture)
Agriculture uses intense soil preparation, fertilization, irrigation, genetically modified organisms, etc. Hardly any of this is used in, e.g., forestry. If the same production technologies as in agriculture would be used in forestry, the theoretical yield of forest biomass would be 3–4 times higher
Forestry Program
Environmental Efficiency
Biodiesel F-T (IEA)
Biodiesel rapeseed (EU)
EtOH cellulose (IEA)
EtOH wheat (EU)
EtOH maize (US)
EtOH sugar cane (Brazil)
Biodiesel rapeseed (EU)
EtOH cellulose (IEA)
EtOH wheat (EU)
EtOH maize (US)
EtOH sugar cane (Brazil)
€/t CO2 equivalent
- 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2002
Post-
2010
- 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2002
Post-
2010
Post-
2010
Lower limit Upper limit
Source: Adapted from WWI/GTZ (2006)
Forestry Program
Cost EfficiencyAgriculture-based ethanol ~70$/bbl
Brazilian ethanol ~50$/bbl (including fuel economy penalty)
First generation biodiesel Hardly competitive
Second generation (post 2010) biomass-to-liquid from forest biomass
~50$/bbl
Second generation (post 2010) lingo-ethanol
~50$/bbl
Target for being competitive with biofuels ≈50$/barrel
Forestry Program
Raw Material Supply Tightens―Driving Up Costs for Alternative Energies
At prices of $100/barrel―success of biofuels
High demand in alternative fuels
Biofuels
Link Available Land ―
Biofuel Demand ―
Agriculture
Products
Forestry Program
Supply limited (~50 million Toe today―200–300 million ha totally available for additional production)
Agricultural commodity demand increases with increased prices
The cost goal posts have changed dramatically
Raw Material Supply Tightens―Driving Up Costs for Alternative Energies
Forestry Program
Transition will take much longer than expected
Palm Oil (raw material cost +90%)
2004 2007
Economically Competitive $50/barrel $130/barrel
Raw Material Supply Tightens―Driving Up Costs for Alternative Energies
Forestry Program
Biogas
Food
Electricity Heat
Fuel
Or-ganic Waste
Manure, Wet
Energy Biomass
Biogas Reactor
Fermentation rests
Source: Formas (2007)
Forestry Program
Economies of Scale
A production unit for synthetic
biofuels has to be big due to
economies of scale―this means
a 380 million liter plant/year
This will require 2.4 million m3 of
green wood/year
Forestry Program
Economies of Scale
At large scale, estimate cost per installed gallon of $1.70 for cellulosic ethanol vs. $1.45 for starch-based ethanol
Lower variable costs vs corn-based ethanol $1.22-$1.31/gallon for cellulosic ethanol (assuming no carbon credits) $1.55-$1.75/gallon for starch-based ethanol
Higher capital cost driven by energy-efficiency cogen Cogen is elective based on separate ROI analysis Abandoned infrastructure reduces cost vs new
Estimated Scale Economies for Hardwood-based Cellulosic Ethanol
Source: Roberts (2007)
Source: SunOpta Bio Process Inc.
Forestry Program
Spatial Aspects The economies of scale of biofuel plants causes
large logistic challenges Poland Example
To reduce Poland’s current fossil fuel consumption by 20% would require:• 3 production units the size of 380 million liters/year
• This means that each of these units needs a truck delivery every 3rd minute 24 hours around the clock
EU-15 To replace 15% of the fuel consumption would require 120–125
units of the above size The land required for biomass production is the same as the
total land area of Poland The logistic problems are enormous The production units have to be close to ports
Source: Blinge (2007)
Forestry Program
Biomass Production
Source: Obersteiner and Nilsson (2006)
Forestry Program
Transportation Costs of Biofuels
20 €/ton
200 km by truck
600 km by rail
10,000 km by ship
Forestry Program
Jatropha CurcasYield not yet measured; plants are too young
8 month old plantation near Jogjakarta, Java, Indonesia
Good yielding bush
50 year old Jatropha tree
J. Mahafaliensis near Toleara, Madagascar
Forestry Program
Toxic fruit and bark
Can grow on low productive land
Promising for producing environmental neutral fuel
The yield is far below that of palm oil per ha―huge areas needed
Jatropha Curcas
Forestry Program
Average yield: 1.7 tons oil/ha/year
Bush breeding and cultivated conditions yields 2.7 tons oil/ha/year―huge areas needed
The bush needs 600–1500 mm of rainfall/year (ideally 1000 mm) to get yield
Produces fruit and flowers at the same time
Jatropha Curcas
Forestry Program
Jatropha Curcas
China is claiming to have planted
13 million ha of Jatropha Curcas
by 2010 producing 6 million ton
of biodiesel
Forestry Program
Palm Oil
Indonesia and Malaysia produce some 80% of the internationally traded palm oil
Palm oil constitutes 40% of edible oil trade
Average production 3.5 tons oil/ha/year
Hybrid clones 6.5 to 8.0 tons/ha/year
Forestry Program
Indonesia Currently 6 million ha
under palm oil production
18 million ha of forests have been cleared for palm oil plantations
Additional 20 million ha are allocated in development plans for oil plantations
One of the main motors for deforestation
Large scale forest fires
Increased GHG emissions (drainage)
Forestry Program
Competition Food demand will increase over time
Forest industrial products demand will increase in the future (driven by economic growth, demographic development, and energy development)Using the same raw material; pulp and paper industry generates 13 times more employment and 8 times more value compared to energy sectors (Pöyry, 2007)
Chemical industry has the potential to generate much higher value added of the biomassSome 8% of all fossil fuel goes to the chemical industry. Cracking the oil and generating the chemicals consume a lot of fossil fuel. Plants have the possibility to generate some of the chemical structures by themselves
Competition within the bioenergy sector
Forestry Program
Wood Pellets
Europe is driving the global market for wood pellets, and this demand is driven by a series of “carrots” and “sticks”. Consumption already up roughly 10x since 2000 to ~5 million tpy, and expected to rise to almost 13 million tpy by 2010
Consumers? ~60% to co-fire coal power plants, 25% district heating, 15% residential
Source: Roberts (2007)
Source: Wood Pellet Association of Canada
Forestry Program
Difficult to Generalize on Biofuels
The bioenergy systems:
Many combinations of bio feed stocks Many different conversion technologies Many different final bioenergy products Different local conditions Competition on raw material with other
products Security aspects Technological developments unknown
Forestry Program
Modeling Framework
Multigas-MESSAGE
Systems Engineering IA-Model
Exogenous drivers for CH4 & N2O
emissions:
N-Fertilizer use, Rice production, Bovine Livestock
Bottom-up mitigation
technologies for non-CO2 emissions
Black carbon and organic carbon
emissions coefficients
Forest Sinks Potential, FSU
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Rate of carbon sequestration MTC
Incr
ease
in P
rices
21002000
2050
Data Sources: Obersteiner and Rokityanskiy, FOR
Data Sources: Fischer and Tubiello, LUC
Data Sources: USEPA, EMF-21
Data Sources: Bond; Klimont and Kupiano, TAP
Data Sources: Fischer and Tubiello, LUC
Data Sources: Obersteiner and Rokityanskiy, FOR; Tubiello and Fischer, LUC
Biomass supply A2:WEU
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bio
ener
gy
po
ten
tial
(E
J)
Ag. residues
Biomass from forests
1$/GJ
6$/GJ
4$/GJ
5$/GJ
3$/GJ
Agricultural residue potentials
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
PJ
NAM
WEU
PAO
FSU
EEU
AFR
LAM
MEA
CPA
SAS
PAS
Forestry Program
Institutional Aspects Established energy companies are getting bigger and bigger and
have strong possibilities to influence the political power and policy making. The same is true for the agricultural lobby. A power the new bioenergy industry is lacking
Production of bio raw material in agriculture is often operated with substantial subsidies and protected markets. Forest production is largely based on the principles of a market economy. How to get an efficient land use allocation under these conditions?
To create a highly productive economy less or independent of fossil fuels is a transition comparable with the industrial revolution
Important to create environments open for experiments, failures and long-term strategies driving technological innovations. Relying just on the current economic forces will not be sufficient
“Minds are like parachutes―they work best when open”
Forestry Program
Subsidies to Ethanol and Biodiesel
Source: Doornbosch and Steenblik (2007)
UnitsEthanol Biodiesel
Low High Low High
Support per liter equivalent of fossil fuels displaced
United StatesEuropean UnionSwitzerlandAustralia
$/liter equivalent$/liter equivalent$/liter equivalent$/liter equivalent
1.031.640.660.69
1.404.981.331.77
0.660.770.710.38
0.901.531.540.76
Support per tonne of CO2 equivalent avoided
United StatesEuropean UnionSwitzerlandAustralia
$/tonne of CO2 equivalent$/tonne of CO2 equivalent$/tonne of CO2 equivalent$/tonne of CO2 equivalent
NA590340244
5454520 3941679
NQ340253165
NQ1300 768 639
Note: The ranges of values reflect corresponding ranges in the estimates of total subsidies, variation in the types of feedstocks, and in the estimates of life-cycle emissions of biofuels in the different countries
(per liter net fossil fuel displaced & per metric ton of CO2 equivalent avoided)
Forestry Program
Conclusions: Biofuels Competition for land Once markets have stabilized, biofuels will be dominated by ligno-
cellulosics Bio-ethanol will continue to develop as a transport fuel developed in
tropical latitudes Replacement of fossil fuels for electricity and heat production by
biomass in co-generation of heat and electricity is superior to using the biomass for biofuels
Base production units of biofuels close to raw material and distribute finished energy carriers
Wood has some advantages relative to most other cellulosic biomass: Higher sugar content Higher bulk density (less top costs) Longer storage life and lower storage costs Less use of water and fertilizers Forest sector has a well developed collection system
Trade in bio raw material and biofuels will increase substantially