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Page 1: Foreword · Web viewOrganisations are already considering how the Scheme can create new business and employment opportunities in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities

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Page 2: Foreword · Web viewOrganisations are already considering how the Scheme can create new business and employment opportunities in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities

Foreword

The National Disability Insurance Agency (the Agency) is pleased to present the Northern Territory (Territory) Market Position Statement (MPS), the seventh in a series developed to inform and prepare market stakeholders for the opportunities the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will create in coming years.

The MPS series provides information about the emerging NDIS marketplace, allowing current and prospective providers to better understand areas of expected demand growth and the characteristics of particular markets around Australia.

The Agency values providers and the critical role they play in delivering high quality, person centred supports that help participants achieve their aspirations. The Agency is seeking to facilitate a market with a diverse array of providers that maximises choice and control for participants but also enables strong links with mainstream services, family and community support so people with disability experience increased social and economic participation.

The NDIS provides an unprecedented opportunity to collect market data based on early implementation experience and use it to support development of the market as the NDIS expands.

Each MPS is intended to be as practical as possible for current and prospective providers, incorporating the information most useful for commercial decision making. To achieve this, the Agency is committed to sharing data about the market as it becomes available.

As the Scheme continues to develop and the number of participants grows from approximately 35,000 to 460,000 by 2020, the expanding information set will facilitate creation of new information products. Consistent with our commitment to ‘Listen, Learn, Build and Deliver’ we welcome feedback about what additional information would be most valuable.

David BowenCEONational Disability Insurance Agency

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ContentsForeword...................................................................................................................

Contents.................................................................................................................... i

Emerging NDIS Market highlights.............................................................................

1. Overview...........................................................................................................2

1.1 What is this document and who is it for?....................................................5

1.2 Feedback....................................................................................................6

2. Northern Territory..............................................................................................7

3. Demand.............................................................................................................9

3.1 Demand: Participant characteristics...........................................................9

3.2 Demand: Participants by region................................................................11

3.3 Demand: Supports by category................................................................15

3.4 Demand: Supports by region....................................................................17

4. Supply.............................................................................................................20

4.1 The experience of suppliers in Barkly region............................................25

5. Growth: From current supply to future demand...............................................34

5.1 Growth: Estimated workforce required......................................................35

6. NDIS Service Model........................................................................................36

7. Provider aspirations and challenges...............................................................39

7.1 Provider journey and readiness................................................................40

7.2 Themes of the emerging marketplace......................................................44

8. Supporting NDIS transition..............................................................................48

8.1 Provider Toolkit.........................................................................................49

8.2 Outcomes Framework..............................................................................50

8.3 Rural and Remote Strategy......................................................................52

8.4 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Engagement Strategy.....................53

8.5 Scheme Public Reports............................................................................54

8.6 Business support and resources..............................................................55

8.7 Infographic – accessible content..............................................................57

8.8 Data considerations..................................................................................58

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Page 4: Foreword · Web viewOrganisations are already considering how the Scheme can create new business and employment opportunities in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities

Emerging NDIS Market highlights

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Page 5: Foreword · Web viewOrganisations are already considering how the Scheme can create new business and employment opportunities in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities

1January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Northern Territory

1. Overview The NDIS creates new and expanded opportunities to provide innovative and personalised supports to people with disability in increasingly contestable markets.

The NDIS is not another government-controlled social welfare Scheme. It is underpinned by new national consumer-controlled markets and sub-markets with enormous growth potential. It is based upon individual commissioning, where eligible people with disability can use their NDIS plans to choose those supports and services that best help them achieve their specific life goals.

This empowered consumer model for disability services harnesses the power of the market to achieve better outcomes for people with disability. Participants drive and shape the supply of services through their choices. This fundamentally changes the funding relationships characteristic of the disability support system in the past.

Delivering on the aspiration of providing supports that facilitate choice, inclusion and independence requires changes within the disability sector and more active involvement from communities and the broader Australian economy.

NDIS markets will expand dramatically in the coming years, creating significant opportunities for the existing service sector and for new entrants, as well as mainstream businesses who seek to make their services accessible and inclusive. Nationally, the level of expenditure on disability supports will more than double, reaching approximately $22 billion per annum and supporting 460,000 participants once the NDIS is fully implemented.

The focus of this Market Position Statement (MPS) is on the Northern Territory (Territory). While the Territory will be the smallest market within the NDIS with around 6,500 NDIS participants, the growth in people with a disability receiving funded supports is one of the greatest at 103 per cent. Although there are recognised difficulties in ascertaining the exact level and incidence of disability amongst Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people1, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander participants are expected to be key beneficiaries of the Scheme in the Territory. In addition to participants receiving services, the significant growth in disability expenditure and intended increase in localised service delivery is also expected to contribute to improved community capacity, economic opportunities and job creation.

1 Complexities arise from such things as: under-identification of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in data and population surveys; gaps in coverage of survey data; limitations on the degree to which data collected on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders is comparable to non-indigenous people; cultural appropriateness of survey instruments; differing concepts of disability and self-reported measures of disability.

2January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Northern Territory

Reform occurring in other industries unrelated to the NDIS, such as aged care, is likely to provide further opportunities for the Territory’s already diversified organisations. This includes opportunities for organisations to aggregate commercial opportunities, leverage multiple change programs, improve business systems and evolve service delivery to be able to grow services under the NDIS.

The diverse markets in the Territory are estimated to grow by $160 million reaching approximately $320 million per annum by June 2020. In the Territory, there are already over 155 participants in the Barkly region (Barkly) benefiting from the Scheme.2 Participants in East Arnhem and those residing in Darwin-based supported accommodation are to begin phasing in from January 2017.

NDIS generated growth presents significant opportunities for expansion in service provision. With this opportunity comes the challenge of delivering high quality and value-for-money supports that build the capacity of participants in diverse and geographically dispersed regions, including remote and very remote parts of Australia.

The Territory covers over 1.3 million square kilometres meaning a significant proportion of supports delivered will be in remote locations. The vastness, along with the cultural diversity of the Territory, not only means that there are significant differences between urban, regional and remote Territory markets, but also between regional and remote markets themselves. Importantly, market entrants looking to succeed in this environment are considering new business models and products, and exploring new ideas, collaborations, technologies and service offerings that are not only responsive to individual choices, but to the needs of individual communities.

The Agency will encourage providers (including new market entrants) to respond to the new demand. The Scheme will be developed and rolled out in a respectful and culturally appropriate manner, supported by the Northern Territory Government’s Quality and Safeguarding Framework which emphasises the need for providers to demonstrate cultural safety, security and competence in service delivery and will include the creation of opportunities for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander economic participation.

The NDIS will also be a major driver of new jobs and career pathways in the sector. Organisations are already considering how the Scheme can create new business and employment opportunities in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.

2 This reflects the entry of 6 more participants than anticipated under the Bilateral Agreement. Source: 2015-2016 Quarter 4 COAG report

3January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Developing the market will take time and collaboration The NDIS aims to harness the power of consumer commissioning in vibrant, competitive and efficient markets to create value for participants, the community and the overall economy.

Developing strong and contestable markets for disability supports where levels of demand are low is a developmental process that requires collaboration with a variety of stakeholders. There is a risk that participants will obtain greater consumer power but will be faced with overly constrained choices or a lack of supply. In the Territory the Agency will use a deliberative approach to Scheme roll out, co-designed with the community focussed on fostering models of sustainable local supply and introducing greater expression of consumer choice. The objective will be to ensure holistic market responses, shaped by the diverse community and the participants the Scheme is serving.

All stakeholders in the market will require time to build capability, confidence and systems. Organisations where disability service provision is a small part of their business will need to consider and position appropriately the NDIS participant-driven model alongside their other non-NDIS person-centred programs, that may currently include block funded elements. Diversified organisations will be faced with specific opportunities and challenges in developing fit for purpose infrastructure and a strong multi-skilled workforce.

The market is already responding and growingAlthough the growth challenge is significant, the markets are already expanding and diversifying in response to participant demand.

In a vote of confidence in the Scheme nationally, the number of registered providers increased 50 per cent in the three months to 30 June 20163, and further increased to 4,732 by the end of November 2016.

Across Australia new providers emerged, and along with many existing providers, expanded during trial to fill supply gaps in the market. Registered businesses include new business types and industries not typically associated with the disability sector such as fitness and sports, financial services, information technology, trades and builders.

As at September 2016, 111 providers had registered in the Territory. Other providers are considering their options whilst being cautiously optimistic about the potential growth prospects in the NDIS.

3COAG Quarterly Report 30 June 2016, p31

4January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Data considerationsThis MPS draws on data provided by the Northern Territory Government, Scheme Actuary, published reports and interviews with providers and other key stakeholders. Interviews were conducted with 35 organisations from across the Territory to provide a picture of supply in both urban and remote areas. A diverse mix of organisations were interviewed to share their views about the emerging NDIS opportunities. These local, ‘on the ground’ perspectives provide a helpful picture of the supply landscape.

More information on the data used in this MPS is found at Section 8.8.

1.1 What is this document and who is it for?

This MPS is the first market information product developed by the Agency that provides jurisdiction-wide information for the Territory.

Like all publications in the MPS series, the Agency shares this information to facilitate vibrant and competitive markets for services and supports which is a core part of its role as a market steward. The Agency’s role as market steward during transition is further described in the NDIS Market Approach available on the Agency’s website.

This vision for the NDIS and the aim of market stewardship is to create a marketplace able to meet the structural changes created by a consumer driven market. Current and prospective providers across Australia are enthusiastic about growth in the NDIS however need more information about market demand and supply to inform investment decisions about where to grow, or how to re-orient supports to ensure they become providers of choice in new markets. This information is vitally important for organisations in the Territory who are faced with making decisions in a market with complex and diverse sub-markets associated with very remote service delivery.

This document provides high level market information for local and interstate organisations considering entering or expanding into the Territory. In addition, information is provided on alternative business models used to deliver services as well as innovative examples of remote supply issues being addressed by organisations. The Agency is sharing this information to encourage development of viable service solutions that enable participants to exercise an increasing amount of choice and control.

5January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Northern Territory

1.2 Feedback

Given the Agency’s commitment to continuous improvement of its information resources, we would like to obtain feedback on:

what information you found useful and what needs clarification? what additional information would you like to know about the market? what sub-markets are of interest?

Email [email protected] with the subject heading ‘Feedback on NT MPS’.

6January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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2. Northern TerritoryThe Territory has a population of 244,000 people as at 31 March 2016 representing 1 per cent of the Australian population. The Territory has the youngest median age (approximately 32 years), yet as a result of increased life expectancy in the Territory in the past 20 years the proportion of the Territory’s population over 65 years has increased from just over three per cent to over seven per cent.4 The Territory has the largest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents of any Australian jurisdiction (30 per cent)5, yet this only accounts for approximately 10 per cent of the overall Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia. In 2011 there was more than three times the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in New South Wales than in the Territory.

According to the 2011 ABS Census, 43.5 per cent of people living in the Territory aged 0 to 64 years with a need for assistance with the core activities of daily living are Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. In recognition of this and the unique geographic characteristics of the Territory, the Agency, in partnership with the Northern Territory Government, is incorporating a community by community approach in the roll out of the Scheme in remote locations. This approach recognises the unique characteristics of each community and seeks to tailor its engagement and build capacity directly with communities by working closely with Aboriginal land councils, corporations and service providers to promote local decision making.

In the Bilateral Agreement for transition to the NDIS6 the Commonwealth and Northern Territory Government have agreed that transition in the Territory will be implemented on a service and geographical basis. Subsequent to the Barkly trial, the first participants to enter the Scheme from 1 January 2017 will come from the East Arnhem region and supported accommodation services, including residential aged care, in Darwin Urban.

This will be followed from 1 July 2017 by residents in supported accommodation in Alice Springs and Katherine and participants residing in Darwin Remote and Katherine. From 1 July 2018 participants living in Darwin Urban, Central Australia and Alice Springs will begin entering the Scheme (Figure 1).

4 Australian Demographic Statistics 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Latestproducts/3101.0Feature%20Article1Jun%202016?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3101.0&issue=Jun%202016&num=&view= 5 2011 Census http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3238.0.55.001 6 Bilateral Agreement between the Commonwealth and the Northern Territory for the transition to an NDIS Schedule A

7January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Figure 1 Map Northern Territory Figure 2 Remote classification in NT

Source: Scheme Actuary

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 45 per cent of the Territory’s population reside in remote or very remote areas.7 The Modified Monash Model (MMM) is a classification system that categorises metropolitan, regional, rural and remote areas according to both geographical remoteness and town size (Figure 2). The Agency uses the MMM system to classify remote and very remote areas. Areas meeting the MMM Class 7 are considered very remote and those attracting a MMM Class 6 rating, remote. As can be seen the vast majority of the Territory is classified as meeting the MMM Class 7 scale. More granular classification by town can be accessed via the interactive map on the doctorconnect website.

7 Description of the Territory’s remoteness is found here on the ABS website http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/4102.0Chapter3002008

8January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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3. DemandThis section details expected participant characteristics across the Territory drawing on experience to date in Barkly (NT) and contrasting this with the Barwon (Victoria) and Hunter (New South Wales) regions. The data from Barwon and Hunter regions provides the best picture of full Scheme experience having been operating since 1 July 2013 and being available to all people with a disability aged 0 to 64 who meet the access requirements. Using this comparative information provides insight into how the Scheme in a remote location may align or deviate from average experience.

3.1 Demand: Participant characteristics

Participant demographics in the Territory as a whole are expected to vary from those in Barwon and the Hunter in line with general population demographics. For instance the Territory has the lowest median age, the second highest rate of population growth from immigration and the highest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons in comparison to other states and territories8.

While the deviation from the Barwon and Hunter participants does not appear significant in most age ranges (i.e. less than 10 per cent), the low proportion of current Territory participants between the ages of 15-24 (Figure 3) is noteworthy.

This may reflect greater movement of young people across interstate borders, a level of undiagnosed disability and/or young people not identifying as having a disability. This third issue was noted during interviews.

The greatest proportion of participants in the Territory were aged 45 – 64 years (Figure 3). This proportion is higher than all other Scheme locations with the average proportion of participants in this age range being 16 per cent. Also unique to Barkly is the higher proportion of primary disability of ‘other physical disability’ (Figure 4). Participants in Barkly with other neurological conditions are also overrepresented compared to the national average. The data should be treated with caution given the small numbers of the Barkly trial.

82011 Northern Territory Regional Statistics http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Latestproducts/1362.7Feature%20Article1Mar%202011

9January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Figure 3 Proportion of participants with an approved plan by age group

0-6 yrs 7-14 yrs

15-24 yrs

25-34 yrs

35-44 yrs

45-54 yrs

55-64 yrs

65+ yrs

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

NT (Barkly) NSW (Hunter) VIC (Barwon)Source: Based on NDIS quarterly dashboards 30 June 2016

Figure 4 Participants with an approved plan by primary disability

Psychosocial Disability

Other Physical

Other Neurological

Deafness/Hearing Loss

Cerebral Palsy

Global Developmental Delay

Other Sensory/Speech

Intellectual Disability

Developmental Delay

Autism and Related Disorders

Multiple Sclerosis

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

11%

5%

12%

3%

4%

2%

5%

26%

6%

23%

2%

4%

27%

17%

5%

7%

3%

5%

25%

4%

3%

1%

14%

4%

10%

1%

3%

3%

3%

29%

8%

22%

3%

VIC (Barwon) NT (Barkly) NSW (Hunter)

Source: Based on NDIS quarterly dashboards 30 June 2016

10January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Further, at 30 June 2016 approximately 20 per cent of participants in Barwon and Hunter regions have Autism or a related disorder which is a marked difference to the rate for Barkly at three per cent (Figure 4). This difference is expected to relate to lower levels of diagnosis, rather than prevalence, which may also partially explain the lower numbers of young people entering the Scheme in the Territory. During interviews for the MPS some organisations suggested that until the Scheme was better understood and trusted there would be reluctance from some Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families to seek support.

3.2 Demand: Participants by region

The distribution and growth of NDIS participants has been estimated using population projections and phasing as per the Bilateral Agreement between the Commonwealth and Territory (Table 1, Figure 5).

Geographic modelling may be of limited utility for providers seeking to provide services outside of central hubs. Postcode information, a key past metric used to determine the home location of a service user, is also expected to be unreliable due to unavailable or incorrect data. Due to the small population in some areas, demand at a site level may be more reliably assessed once participants enter the Scheme. The Agency is committed to closely monitoring estimated demand to increase the reliability of its data and sharing information with markets as it becomes available.

In order to estimate demand at a regional level a number of assumptions are made based on the estimated prevalence of disability in each region. However, the specific mix and severity of disability in each region cannot be determined and hence this is assumed to be constant across regions. Similarly with supply, national service type benchmarks9 are used as specific geographical variation is not currently available. Therefore, regional information presented in this report should be treated with some caution.

9 The seven disability service types used in the Productivity Commission’s Report on Government Services http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2016/community-services/services-for-people-with-disability/rogs-2016-volumef-chapter14.pdf

11January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Below is the estimated intake of participants by year to full Scheme across the entire Territory (Table 1 and Figure 5). At the end of the financial year 2016-17, an estimated 546 participants will be part of the Scheme.

Table 1: Estimated NDIS participants in the Northern Territory by end of financial year (cumulative)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

New Participants 149 397 1,077 3,310 1,612Cumulative total 149 546 1,623 4,933 6,545

Source: Bilateral Agreement

Figure 5 Estimated NDIS participants in the Northern Territory at 30 June 2020*

Source: Scheme Actuary *Rounded to closest 100

In 2017-18 an additional 1,077 participants will enter and in 2018-19 a further 3,310 will enter, bringing the total to 4,933 which includes all existing Territory clients.

12January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Finally in 2019-20 an additional 1,612 new and Commonwealth participants will enter, bringing the grand total number of participants to 6,545.

Figure 6 Estimated NDIS participants in the Northern Territory by end of financial year (cumulative)

2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

149546

1,623

4,933

6,545

Source: Scheme Actuary

Participant numbers and participant density across each service region varies considerably (Figure 7, Table 2).

Figure 7 Estimated NDIS participants in the Northern Territory at 30 June 2020 by region

Katherine

East Arnhem

Darwin Urban

Darwin Remote

Central Australia

Barkly

0 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000 3,600

Source: Based on COAG Quarterly Report 30 June 2016

13January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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All but the Darwin Urban service region will have a participant density of less than 5 participants per 100 square kilometres which will present challenges to providers operating in these areas (Table 2). Participant density in Barkly, Central Australia and Darwin Remote is expected to be even lower, with less than five participants per 1,000 square kilometres.

Table 2 Estimated number of NDIS participants in the Northern Territory at end of financial year by region

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Participants per 100 km2 as at 2020

Barkly 155 200 200 200 200 <5Central Australia 0 0 100 800 1,200 <5Darwin Remote 0 0 600 600 700 <5Darwin Urban 0 100 100 2,700 3,600 70East Arnhem 0 300 400 400 500 <5Katherine 0 0 200 200 300 <5Total 155 600 1,600 4,900 6,500 <5Source: Scheme Actuary. Note: Rounded to nearest 100

Darwin Urban will be the region with the greatest number of participants. A further breakdown of participants in the region by local government area is shown Figure 8.

Figure 8 Expected participants in Darwin Urban by local government area

Source: Scheme

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3.3 Demand: Supports by category

The NDIS is being rolled out across Australia to provide participants with the reasonable and necessary support to assist them to live an ordinary life. It is expected participants will use the funding available in their support package to assist them to fully realise their potential, to participate in and contribute to society, and to have a say in their own future.

The NDIS provides a range of supports aimed at increasing participation, independence, inclusion and social and economic participation. These supports are specific to the individual and designed to be more flexible than those provided under the former model of block funded commissioning. The Scheme includes core supports (those that enable participants to complete activities of daily living and work towards their goals), capacity building supports (enabling a participant to build and improve their independence and skills) and capital supports (investment or funding of capital costs). Core, capacity building and capital supports align with the Outcomes Framework used to monitor the progress of participants, their families and carers in key life domains.

The support needs for participants in the Barkly may not provide the best picture of the support needs across the Territory at full Scheme, however they provide insight into early participant purchasing behaviour for very remote areas. Across the Barkly, Barwon and Hunter sites purchasing practices were broadly similar with approximately 80 per cent of funds being committed to providing assistance with daily life and to improve living skills.

Figure 9 provides information on the proportion of participant goals that have been identified in each of the life domains in the Outcomes Framework. Participants can identify more than one goal within and across each life domain.

15January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

Spotlight: Participants achieve efficiencies by aggregating demand

The family of a young person with a disability sought ways to reduce the costs associated with purchasing continence products. The family recognised that significant costs were associated with freight charges to deliver the products to a remote area in the Northern Territory. In an attempt to address this issue, the family sought out others in the community who purchased continence products and they decided to buy in bulk. This allowed the families to take advantage of supplier discounts, including free freight for orders over a certain size. When the supplier’s pricing changed, the families shifted to an alternate source and were able to continue to buy their products freight free.

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The lower proportion of participants seeking employment and education is likely to reflect the older age profile of participants in Barkly. Likewise, the greater proportion of participants in Barkly seeking health and wellbeing supports may be associated with a larger proportion of participants with a primary physical disability. Of note is the significantly lower proportion of participants in Barkly seeking goals in the area of relationships. The reason for this difference is not apparent at this stage and the Agency will continue to monitor this to understand whether these differences relate to cultural or other factors.

Figure 9 Outcome Domains in participant plans10

Dai

ly li

ving

Inde

pend

ence

Rel

atio

nshi

ps

Hea

lth a

nd W

ellb

...

Com

mun

ity, S

ocia

...

Hom

e Li

ving

Edu

catio

n

Em

ploy

men

t0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100% 95%

73%

1%

31%

13%5%

0% 2%

98%

64%

16% 16%19%

10%

1%

12%

99%

68%

17% 20%27%

14%

1%

13%

NT (Barkly) NSW (Hunter) VIC (Barwon)

Source: NDIS Quarterly report, June 2016

The proportion and mix of supports will change over time. Participants are at the centre of the NDIS and will shape the market through their individual preferences. It is envisaged the current array of supports and services the market offers will change significantly as participants demand new supports and services and assess value and price, and as new and innovative markets emerge to respond to this consumer demand. In particular through careful community by community planning the development of self-employment, micro businesses and

10 Participants are able to have more than one goal (life domains) in their plan.

16January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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local entrepreneurial ideas are more likely to flourish. While service delivery is more challenging in remote and sparsely populated parts of Australia such as the Territory there are promising signs in Barkly with participants reporting, for example, having improved choice in supported independent living and greater access to exercise physiology.

3.4 Demand: Supports by region

The NDIS in the Territory is expected to involve funding of approximately $20 million in 2016-17, $80 million in 2017-18, $180 million in 2018-19 and $320 million by the end of 2019-20 (Figure 10). This represents growth of 100 per cent on 2014 levels and will involve supporting an additional 3,345 people with disability.

Figure 10 Estimated value of NDIS supports – annualised as at 30 June 2020

Source: Scheme Actuary

17January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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Table 3 Estimated value of NDIS supports in Northern Territory by end of financial year ($, million)11

2017 2018 2019 2020

Barkly >$5 >$5 >$5 >$5Central Australia $5 $35 $60Darwin Remote $20 $20 $40Darwin Urban $10 $25 $95 $170East Arnhem $5 $15 $15 $30Katherine $10 $10 $15Total Demand $20 $80 $180 $320

Note: Estimates by service region have been rounded to the nearest $5 million.Source: Scheme Actuary

Overall, expenditure in the Territory will double with the Darwin Urban region experiencing the largest portion of this growth at 53 per cent of the Territory’s full Scheme costs. The smallest service region is expected to be the Barkly.

When considering the total value of supports in each service region it is also important to consider the expected distribution of support packages for participants at full Scheme. Figure 11 shows the expected national distribution of support packages.

Figure 11 Expected distribution of annualised support packages at full Scheme

$0-$5,000 $5,001-$10,000

$10,001-$30,000

$30,001-$$50,000

$50,001-$100,000

$100,001+0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: Scheme Actuary

Nationally, 71 per cent of participants are expected to have an annualised package of supports of less than $30,000, while around 9 per cent are expected to have an annualised package of supports greater than $100,00012. Slight variation in the value 11 Note: the 2019-20 dollar amount is an annualised figure. Total figures are from the Bilateral Agreement.12 Quarter Four 2015 -16 COAG Report 30 June 2016 p27

18January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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of support packages in the Territory compared to the national estimate is expected due to the remote and very remote pricing levels and service delivery models. While it may be reasonable to expect the distribution of support packages to vary in the Territory due to the different profile of participants this cannot be quantified at this stage.

More detail on the early support packages developed so far in the Barkly trial is found in Section 4.1.

Further information comparing actual Scheme experience to expectations is available in the Quarterly Reports and Quarterly Dashboards.

19January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

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4. SupplyThe formal disability service sector in the Territory is younger than in other states. No specific information is available on the cost of disability support or the demographics of the disability workforce in the Territory. Consequently, information from the Productivity Commission’s Report on Government Services (ROGS) on spending on broad service groups is used to infer the costs of supporting people in the existing system. The size of the workforce is then calculated based on these costs (Table 4).

Table 4 Estimated current supply in Northern Territory – participants, cost, and workforce

Current Supply Participants Cost ($ millions)

Workforce FTE Range

Total 3,200 $160 975 - 1,375Note: that the data has been rounded to nearest 100 participants and $10,000,000.This table reflects disability services provided as at 2014-15 and does not capture NDIS trial experience in Barkly

As at 30 June 2016 there were approximately 42 providers registered to provide NDIS funded supports in the Territory. This represents an increase of 180 per cent from the number of registered providers at the commencement of the Barkly trial. The growth in providers compares favourably to national changes which has seen a growth rate of 136 per cent13.

As the Territory’s new Quality and Safeguarding Framework14 is implemented it is expected that there will be further growth in the number, range and diversity of providers in the Territory. The framework takes a risk based approach to address those areas where the risks are greatest or the consequences of harm most severe. The framework will apply to all providers seeking NDIS registration to deliver supports in the Territory including existing providers who wish to continue or expand support types delivered and new providers wishing to enter the market.

13 There were 3,519 registered providers as at 30 June 2016 (Quarter 4 2015 COAG Report p31) and 1,494 as at 30 September 2014 (Quarter 2 2014 COAG Report p24)14 https://nt.gov.au/wellbeing/disability-services/ndis

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Implementation of the framework during transition will be used as an opportunity to assist the Territory’s disability sector strengthen its support offerings and establish a sustainable market for the future. This framework will also help prepare providers for implementation of the National Quality and Safeguarding Framework.

The Northern Territory Government, with the support of the Commonwealth Department of Social Services’ Sector Development Fund, is offering a range of capacity building activities, including providing tailored assessment and advice to providers on their financial management, governance arrangements and business planning, in the NDIS context

Providers are registered to provide support across a number of support clusters and in the Territory the clusters with the highest proportion of registered providers are therapeutic supports and life skills development (Table 5). The spread of Territory providers and the proportions against each support category are broadly similar with both Barwon and Hunter with the notable exception of travel assistance. This is likely to reflect the lower availability of independent transport options in remote areas.

Given the much higher level of physical disability in the Territory as compared to all other states and territories, the number of providers registered to provide physical wellbeing supports appears to be low.

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Table 5 Proportion of active Northern Territory registered providers by support cluster contrasted with Victoria and New South Wales

% Providers % Providers

Support Category NT Vic NSW Support Category NT Vic NSW

Therapeutic Supports 8 13 12 Accommodation/ Tenancy

5 2 3

Assess-Skill, Ability, Needs

6 10 10 Physical Wellbeing 1 2 2

Assist-Life Stage, Transition

5 5 5 Plan Management 1 2 2

Participate Community 7 6 6 Assist Prod-Pers Care/ Safety

3 2 2

Early Childhood Supports

2 4 5 Personal Mobility Equipment

2 2 2

Development-Life Skills 7 5 7 Home Modification 3 1 1Assist-Personal Activities

6 4 5 Other Innovative Supports

0 3 2

Assist-Travel/ Transport 7 4 4 Comms & Info Equipment

1 1 1

Equipment Special Assess Setup

3 4 6 Assistive Equip-Recreation

3 2 2

Household Tasks 5 6 5 Assistive Prod-Household Task

2 1 1

Assist-Integrate School/ Ed

4 2 3 Community Nursing Care

1 1 1

Behaviour Support 1 4 5 Interpret/Translate 1 0 0Daily Tasks/ Shared Living

4 3 3 Vision Equipment 0 1 0

Training-Travel Independence

3 4 3 Hearing Equipment 1 1 0

Assist Access/Maintain Employ

3 3 3 Vehicle Modifications 2 1 1

Source: NDIS quarterly market dashboard

Providers of disability support under the NDIS have lower barriers to entry and no longer have to apply to government for direct funding. Similarly, supply is no longer linked primarily to government and not for profit organisations, but can include for profit and other new entrants from adjacent markets.

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This is particularly important in the Territory where many organisations have diverse service offerings, only a small proportion of which relates to disability service provision. These organisations can leverage the existing skill set of workers in adjacent markets to meet growth in the disability side of their business.

23January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

Spotlight: Community developed solution

A remote community identified the need to be able to quickly respond to the needs of people with a disability in their community when a large provider ceased operating in the region. The community was able to negotiate to store a small amount of mobility equipment which could be accessed at short notice in appropriate circumstances by people with a disability. This ensured that people’s immediate needs were met while allowing the administrative arrangements to occur afterward.

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The Barkly Region

4.1 The experience of suppliers in Barkly region

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This section focuses on the Scheme roll-out area of Barkly, which covers the areas of Tennant Creek, Elliot, Urapuntja (Utopia), Alpurrurulam, Ali Curung, Canteen Creek and Wutunugurra (Epenarra) (Figure 12). The Barkly trial ran from July 2014 to June 2016 providing the Scheme with valuable insights not just about operations in a remote location, but also how suppliers are responding and learnings to date.

Figure 12 The Barkly Trial Site

Source: NDIS website

The information in the following sections includes insights from Scheme data and interviews with 14 of the 22 active providers in Barkly, which represent 97 per cent of current Scheme market share in the region. This section analyses data as at the end

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The Barkly Region

of June 2016 which represents the point of transition from trial to commencement of full Scheme. It demonstrates how marketplaces and supply are emerging, the characteristics of purchasing behaviour of participants and the response by local and other suppliers.

Overview of the Barkly regionBarkly represents just three per cent of the total population in the Territory however there are core characteristics that define the region. The Barkly region has an estimated population of over 8,000 people15, and the most recent estimate is 69 per cent of the population identifies as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. This is more than double in the Territory as a whole16. The unemployment rate is almost double the Territory average (10.6 compared to 5.3 per cent)17 and the region has a slightly lower median age than the Territory (29 compared to 32 years).

Only one per cent of businesses in the Territory are based in Barkly, with a higher proportion of sole traders or small businesses, mostly operating from Tennant Creek.

The town of Tennant Creek is a central hub for public administration, health, education and training with these industries representing over half the employment base18. The closest community to Tennant Creek is Ali Curung which is 173 kilometres away (Table 6). As with many of the remote locations, it is accessed by a mix of sealed and unsealed roads.

During the wet season (Tennant Creek has an annual average rainfall of 475 millimetres) some of the more remote communities may only be accessible via air.19

15 ABS, Barkly Local Government Areas 2014, Table 12, as at 30 June 201416 ABS statistical data, as at 2011 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island People’s Census17 ABS statistical data, as at 30 June 201418 ABS statistical data, as at 2011 Census19 Bureau of Metrology, Monthly rainfall summary statistics, Tennant Creek, accessed November 2016 http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/rainfall-percentages/index.jsp)

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Table 6: Barkly region community distance indicator (km)

Ali

Cur

ung

Alp

urru

rula

m

Am

pila

twat

ja

Arlp

arra

Ellio

tt

Tara

(Neu

tral

Ju

nctio

n)

Tenn

ant C

reek

Wut

unug

urra

Ali Curung 471 141 208 426 104 173 206

Alpurrurulam 471 337 390 774 804 571 461

Ampilatwatja 141 337 74 567 245 313 219

Arlparra 208 390 74 634 410 380 286

Elliott 426 774 567 634 488 254 463

Tara (Neutral Junction)

104 804 245 410 488 234 268

Tennant Creek

173 571 313 380 254 234 210

Wutunugurra 206 461 219 286 463 268 210

Courtesy of Barkly Regional Shire Council

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Participant characteristics and needThe majority of participants in Barkly identify as being Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander and for 67 per cent English is not their first language20. Detailed participant characteristics are presented in Section 3 of this report.

In the final year of the trial, participant numbers increased 154 per cent (61 to 155) increasing committed expenditure by over 200 per cent. Services recognised this growing demand and the number of providers engaging in the Scheme almost doubling (registered providers increasing 24 to 42).

The distribution of the cost of support packages in the Territory differs from the average distribution. In particular, a higher proportion of low cost participants were expected compared with actual experience, and there are a higher proportion of participants receiving mid-range packages than expected (Figure 13). The majority of participants in Barkly have annualised plan costs of between $10,001 and $30,000.

Figure 13 Estimated distribution of support packages in NT

Committed supports in participant plans totalled $9,411,073 in 2015-16, and consistent with national purchasing patterns, a significant proportion of actual expenditure was for supported living arrangements (70 per cent). Outside of supported

20 This is captured in the CALD profile of participants.

28January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

$0-$

5,00

0$5

,001

-$10

,000

$10,

001-

$30,

000

$30,

001-

$50,

000

$50,

001-

$100

,000

$100

,001

-$15

0,00

0$1

50,0

01-$

200,

000

$200

,001

-$25

0,00

0

$250

,001

+

0

20

40

60

80

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

NT Actual # Expected # Expected % NT Actual %Annualised committed support band

Num

ber o

f par

ticip

ants

Dis

tribu

tion

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The Barkly Region

living, there were seven types of supports representing at least 5 per cent of expenditure (Table 7).

Table 7: Proportion of purchased supports when excluding supported independent living, June 2016

Support typeProportion of expenditure (excluding shared living)

Personal care 21%Equipment 20%Community access 18%Exercise physiology 10%Short-term housing assistance 9%Therapy 5%Group activity 5%

Whilst this paints a picture of current demand, it may not depict true need. Participants in Barkly have the third highest level of unutilised funding, with only 41 per cent of committed supports spent in 2014-15. This increased to 64 per cent in 2015-16 which is a good indicator of suppliers responding to demand. Reasons for unexpended funding, include:

availability or accessibility of supports in the local community ability to effectively coordinate services including availability of coordination

support and time taken to build relationships plan or referral issues providers not claiming.

Lack of understanding of the Scheme was a contributor to provider activity and claiming issues. There were instances of participants receiving service without knowing that it was part of their funded plan. Therefore providers continued to deliver the service under existing grant/block funding allocation and did not initially claim against the Scheme.

Early on, limited understanding of the Scheme may impact on participant purchasing practices, including how effectively people can express their preference and exercise choice. Similar information gaps on the supply side may also initially frustrate providers’ ability to engage and grow their NDIS business. This highlights the challenge and importance of the Agency engaging and educating all stakeholders. This includes enabling intermediaries (particularly support coordinators) and providers in remote locations to assist participants to understand how funded supports are intended to work. These challenges are part of the rationale for a community by

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community approach to Scheme implementation in East Arnhem and other regions in the Territory.

Provider characteristics servicing BarklyWith the implementation of the Scheme in Barkly, there has been a 100 per cent increase in new providers servicing the area. Many had a presence elsewhere in the Territory prior to the Scheme and/or were providing services in other industries such as health, community, mechanical/trade and therapy (Table 8).

Table 8: Proportion of claimed services by new or existing suppliers, June 2016

New to region Provider (%) Expenditure (%)Expenditure

excluding shared living (%)

No 50 26 69Yes 50 74 30Total 100 100 100

New providers met 74 per cent of the support needs by participants, based on payments. However, when shared living arrangements is excluded the relationship reverses and existing services provided 70 per cent of supports, demonstrating their ability to grow or diversify to meet a range of needs (Table 9).

Table 9 Origin of organisational, June 2016

Organisation type Provider (#) Provider (%) Market Share (%)

Interstate organisation 3 14 >1Not registered 1 5 >1Territory organisation 14 67 95Total 18 86 98

Providers who entered the region to deliver supports under the Scheme noted the length of time it took to form respectful relationships with participants and other organisations in the community. One provider operating a visiting business model noted they had been operating for nearly a year and felt it would be another year before they had earned the trust of the community. They believed the time taken to develop trust was due to the lack of an ongoing physical local presence.

Other providers found that success was dependent upon collaboration with local providers including deep acknowledgement of their experience and existing relationships. Collaborative relationships influenced the strength of the connection with

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participants, both in terms of understanding their needs and provision of more holistic services.

The number of registered providers in the Territory has steadily increased since the Barkly trial commenced as shown in Figure 14. The fourth column segments the number of registered providers at 30 June 2016 by their organisational type.

Figure 14 Number of registered providers in NT (cumulative) and proportion by entity type as at 30 June 2016

31 Dec 2013

30 Jun 2014

31 Dec 2014

30 Jun 2015

31 Dec 2015

30 Jun 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

15

2429

Registered providers Australian Private Company, 29%Australian Public Company, 12% Family or Other trust, 5%Incorporated Entity, 21% Individual/Sole Trader, 17%Partnership, 5% Other Private, 5%

42

Source: Scheme Actuary

Some similarities in the entity type exist between Barkly, Barwon and Hunter. In all three regions Australian Private Companies account for nearly one third of registered providers. A notable difference is in the percentage of individuals or sole traders. In Barwon and Hunter individual or sole traders account for more than 33 per cent of registered providers. The lower percentage in Barkly (17 per cent) may be partially a result of the use by large health care providers of contracted therapists to service the region. It is also consistent with learnings from interviews that infrastructure and supports are necessary for viable, locally based business operations.

Registration numbers indicate there is a growing interest in the Scheme in the Territory. Of the 42 organisations, around half have received payment for services to a participant. Of these organisations, most were non-government providers

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(approximately 85 per cent), three were identified as Aboriginal organisations and 50 per cent operated from a local base in the Barkly region.

A range of business models are actively servicing Barkly including fly-in-fly-out, drive-in-drive-out, sole traders, state and national providers, sub-contracted arrangements and a collaborative partnership.

Those with a local presence, i.e. not fly-in-fly-out, received the majority of the funding expended by participants (88 per cent). This is explained by the high proportion of funding being used to support participants in a supported living arrangement.

Coordination and service engagement with participants in BarklyMany of the opportunities and challenges of providers in the Barkly region were reflected in the provider interviews across the Territory (refer to Section 7).

A common challenge was reported around coordinating the delivery of supports. Providers noted that awareness and understanding of the Scheme by people with disability was generally low. In some instances this resulted in participants not engaging until providers were able to explain the Scheme and link the delivery of services to the Agency planning conversation.

Coordination, sometimes informal sometimes formal, was an existing area of capability for many organisations. The coordination role was understood to be a function of both strong cultural competency and high levels of trust, and was common to services whose business model was related to a particular geography or community.

Coordination across both services and with communities was reported as being essential to ensuring a participant would be present when the service was visiting. This was particularly a theme for community mental health services, who identified a significant proportion of time was spent finding and coordinating people in order to support medication regimes and well-being programs. For visiting services, efforts were made to avoid ‘no shows’ which enhanced the organisation’s ability to deliver services on a sustainable basis. Not only is coordination seen by many providers as the key to service delivery it also forms an underlying principle in the Agency’s Rural and Remote Strategy. The Strategy aims to ensure effective and appropriate supports are available where people live and outlines how the Agency will work with individuals and their community to identify strengths, and develop creative ways to support people with disability. More detail on the Rural and Remote Strategy is in Section 8.3.

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Provider Story: Growing business and the community in Barkly

Since the introduction of the NDIS, ITEC Health General Manager Chris Anderson says ITEC’s business model has a renewed focus “on the specific needs of individual participants and the choice of services available to meet those needs.”

ITEC Health undertook considerable research and planning early on to understand what the market would look like under the NDIS. “In the first instance, we participated in several forums and discussions on the NDIS. We also conducted a two-day scoping exercise in Tennant Creek where we met with NDIA staff to create awareness of our capabilities and forged relationships within the local community.”

Mr Anderson says that the organisation is committed to exploring and pursuing opportunities that will be mutually beneficial for both ITEC Health and the Tennant Creek community. “We have also explored the creation of employment, training and upskilling opportunities for local people. In Tennant Creek, we employ a 100 per cent local workforce of which 80 per cent are Indigenous people and that is something we are extremely proud of,” he says.

ITEC Health currently have three houses in Tennant Creek providing assisted living support to participants. There was previously only one supported accommodation house in Tennant Creek so ITEC’s involvement brings the total to four.

Mr Anderson says that community consultation and engagement is critical to working effectively with remote communities in Barkly.  This is a key part of the organisation’s practice model when commencing service delivery in a community. 

“Indigenous people want to be able to have access to someone to talk to or ask questions.  We are committed to obtaining the support of the community through consultation and engagement and this is essential to making in roads and a true difference in these communities.” he says. “Having an ongoing physical presence in a community including someone on the ground in the community for people to talk to is essential to building strong and sustainable relationships.”

ITEC Health is currently trialling a satellite program to deliver services in very remote locations to ensure people in these communities have access to NDIS. They hope to roll out the model in other remote locations in the future.

“Although we are not an Indigenous-specific organisation, we specialise in providing services to Indigenous communities in remote areas,” he says. “As an Indigenous person, the NDIS presents opportunities for Indigenous people in these communities and has the potential change lives.

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5. Growth: From current supply to future demand

By full Scheme the total number of people receiving funding for disability supports in the Territory is expected to increase by around 103 per cent. Similarly, the estimated value of supports in the Territory is forecast to double in size. The Scheme therefore represents a significant growth opportunity for existing and new providers of disability supports (Table 10).

Table 10 Growth in estimated demand in NT – participants and cost

Participants Cost ($ millions)

RegionFull

Scheme

Full Schem

e

Barkly 200 5Central Australia 1,200 60Darwin Remote 700 40Darwin Urban 3,600 170East Arnhem 500 30Katherine 300 15

Territory Pre NDIS

Full Schem

e

Growth #

Growth %

Pre NDIS

Full Schem

e

Growth #

Growth %

Total 3,200

6,500 3,300 103 160 320 160 100

Source: Scheme Actuary estimates of demand as at 30 June 2016

The largest service region in absolute terms for both the numbers of participants and the value of supports is expected to be Darwin Urban.

Overall, the growth in participant numbers is expected to be just over 100 per cent (from 3,200 to 6,500) and the growth in participant expenditure is expected to be 100 per cent (from $160 to $320 million). Increases in the value of expected demand in Darwin Remote and East Arnhem region is likely to be greater than the expected increase in the number of participants. Even in the areas of Central Australia and Katherine where participant numbers remain static, demand for services is expected to increase. In all regions this is likely to reflect the level of unmet demand.

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5.1 Growth: Estimated workforce required

The current workforce engaged in delivering disability supports in the Territory is estimated to be 975 – 1,375 FTE workers.

It is estimated that the required workforce under the NDIS will be 2,150 – 2,700 FTE by the end of 2019 – 20 (Table 11). Given the prevalence of part time and casual workers in the sector, the actual number of additional workers required will be greater than the FTE estimates.

The Territory’s unique geography results in service delivery models which differentiate it from all other states and territories. This presents challenges for estimating workforce growth at the regional level. For instance, service delivery is commonly centralised in population centres and service providers deliver services across large geographical areas. As a result, the estimates of current and future workforce supply are aggregated across the Territory.

Table 11 Current and future workforce in

Region Current Workforce Supply

Estimated Required Workforce

Total 975 - 1,375 2,150 - 2,700

Source: Scheme ActuaryNote: see data considerations in Section 8.8

The required increase in workforce numbers will be unevenly distributed across the Territory. Not only will the number of participants influence the size of the workforce in a region, but also service delivery models, such as fly-in-fly-out, will mean the workforce may not be based in regions where participants are located. Further, participants traveling to access services will influence workforce growth outside their home location.

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6. NDIS Service ModelThe NDIS service delivery model, underpinned by insurance principles, is designed to invest early in meeting the needs of participants whilst ensuring the long term sustainability of the Scheme. It has a number of unique features that are important for providers entering the Scheme to understand as they develop their service offering.

National Disability Insurance AgencyThe Agency is the independent Commonwealth agency responsible for implementing the NDIS.

The role of the Agency is to help empower and inform people with disability to be confident consumers, while also providing service providers with clarity and transparency so they can grow their business and respond to need.

The Agency provides information and referrals, links to services and activities, individualised plans and where necessary, funded supports to people over a lifetime. It also has a role to raise community awareness and encourage greater inclusion and access for people with disability to mainstream services, community activities and other government initiatives.

The Agency is committed to remaining flexible in the delivery of the Scheme and this includes working with a network of community partners to grow and deliver the NDIS in certain areas.

Community by Community ApproachIn recognition of the unique geographic and cultural characteristics of the Territory, the Agency and the Northern Territory Government have agreed on a community by community approach to the roll out of the Scheme in remote locations. The approach recognises that no two communities in the Territory are alike and that there needs to be a focus on co-design with each community and its leaders. The implementation of the Scheme will be guided by a number of principles captured in the Bilateral Agreement between the Northern Territory and Commonwealth Governments. The principles include:

Place based, tailored solutions Coordinated, person centred approaches in remote communities Culturally competent engagement and professional practices

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This means the service delivery model will be collaboratively designed and flexibly provided. It will ensure the views of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with a disability are central to the design, delivery of services which affect them. This may include engaging organisations who are embedded in and trusted by their local community. These community connectors will help ensure the Scheme is understood. They will also help people understand access requirements and ensure they are confident to engage with the Scheme.

By adopting this community by community approach the Scheme will take into account cultural and geographic factors and the needs and aspirations of participants in a remote and/or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander context. This will be successful when the Agency and the community connectors recognise existing infrastructure and build strong and respectful partnerships with participants, their families and carers, the community, service providers, community partners, and all tiers of government.

An added expectation of this close deliberative work with each community is the opportunity to increase economic participation of people with disability and others in their community.

Implementation of the Community by Community Approach in East ArnhemThe first region where the Community by Community approach will be tested is in East Arnhem, as eligible individuals move into the Scheme commencing January 2017.

The East Arnhem area epitomises the unique cultural and demographic characteristics in the Territory. The region is located in the north east corner of the Territory approximately 600 kilometres east of Darwin. The original inhabitants of the area were the Yolngu Aboriginal people who continue to live throughout the area and have strong traditional ties with the land.

Rapid population growth took place in and around Nhulunbuy during the 1970s and early 1980s with an increase in bauxite mining and the building of an alumina refinery on the Gove Peninsula. The population increased to over 13,000 in 2006 and remained relatively stable until 2011 and since that time has been impacted by the closure of the alumina refinery in 2014.

Key employment sectors include manufacturing, mining, construction, public administration, safety, education, training and health care. The major industrial areas are located at Gove and Grooyte Eylandt, including mines and ports. Education facilities include the Nhulunbuy Training Centre and a number of schools. The main

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health care facility is the Gove District Hospital which is supported by a number of government and non-government run health centres.

Additional information about conducting business in East Arnhem is available at Developing East Arnhem at www.developingeastarnhem.com.au.

The community by community approach is based on co-design principles with community elders, families and people with disability to develop tailored strategies to support the market, participants and communities in East Arnhem. The Northern Territory Government is a strong supporter of this approach, as is the Commonwealth Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. A key focus is to increase employment opportunities for local Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

Information, Linkages and Capacity Building (ILC)The focus of ILC is community inclusion – making sure people with disability are connected into their communities and ensuring the community becomes more accessible and inclusive of people with disability.

This will be done in two ways:

personal capacity building – making sure people with disability and their families have the skills, resources and confidence they need to participate in the community or access the same kind of opportunities or services as other people

community capacity building – making sure mainstream services or community organisations become more inclusive of people with disability.

Individuals are not funded under ILC, rather grants will be provided to organisations to carry out activities in the community that can demonstrate outcomes for individuals and communities in building inclusion.

The NDIA will provide the funding through open grant rounds when each state/territory reaches full scheme and until then the jurisdiction retains responsibility for these supports. The funding will be outcomes based and organisations will need to develop skills and knowledge in understanding and measuring outcomes.

More information about the roll out of ILC can be found in the ILC Commissioning Framework, Program Guidelines, and ILC Outcomes Framework available at: www.ndis.gov.au/communities

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7. Provider aspirations and challenges Each disability marketplace is unique and to understand the specific context in the Territory the Agency continued its practice of meeting with and listening to current and potential suppliers and key stakeholders as part of developing this MPS. Interviews provided useful insights into:

the provider journey, and themes of the emerging marketplace.

The Agency conducted 35 interviews with organisations in Alice Springs, Barkly, Katherine, Darwin and East Arnhem, speaking with a range of stakeholders including large and small not-for-profit and for-profit providers, Aboriginal community controlled organisations, peak bodies and locally based services (Table 12).

The service delivery footprint of organisations interviewed was extensive, with five of those interviewed present in all regional locations with outreach into more remote communities.

Table 12 Characteristics of organisations interviewed

Organisational Type

Aboriginal community controlled

Not for profit For profit Government Peak or other stakeholder

13 10 6 2 4Service Delivery Locations (note: excludes non-delivery organisations; some organisations serviced multiple areas)

Entire NT

Darwin Alice Springs

Tennant Creek

Katherine Nhulunbuy Remote communities

3 15 12 13 10 9 15

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7.1 Provider journey and readiness

Prior to the decision to enter the Scheme organisations work to become better informed about the Scheme and its opportunities. Armed with this information, organisations then make the decision to become registered providers and commence a range of activities, such as workforce development to be in a position to deliver services and supports.

Interviews identified three main readiness steps21 and these are depicted alongside the Provider Pathway below (Figure 15). The Agency’s interviews suggest nearly half of organisations interviewed are in the ‘becoming aware’ stage and are learning about the Scheme and how it works. Around a quarter were exploring the commercial opportunities and assessing entry, and less than a third were delivering services and supports to participants.

Figure 15 Organisation’s journey overlaying the Provider pathway

21 Becoming aware – involves firstly becoming aware of the NDIS and then learning more about its operations. Understanding Opportunities – broadly speaking this is the “what’s in it for me” stage. Without the understanding that comes through examination of the Scheme at the Awareness stage, organisations in the Understanding Opportunities stage are unlikely to realise the full range of opportunities the Scheme presents. Finally, having identified potential opportunities, organisations in the Service Delivery stage take steps to become “NDIS Ready”. Steps include changes to business processes, workforce and service design and at this time organisations are ready to commence the process of becoming a registered provider.

41January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement

1. Becoming aware

2. Exploring opportunities

3. Service Delivery

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Becoming aware

Awareness was highest in organisations that had been able to make dedicated resources available to examine the approach of the NDIS.

As the implementation schedule progresses provider interest in understanding the Scheme increases. Other factors impact on the perceived relevance of the Scheme in the Territory including:

services were organised around another funding source i.e. health or aged services

perceptions that current service users with disability might not meet the eligibility criteria of non-disability programs

services were not cognisant of the strategic alignment between their existing health or aged services and the range of disability supports that could be delivered under the NDIS.

Understanding commercial opportunities

Many organisations were seeking to understand how they fitted in the Scheme and the level of flexibility the Scheme presented.

A strength of the Territory market is that each region contained services with complementary multidisciplinary service delivery skills. For instance, most regions contained organisations delivering, in addition to disability supports, aged care, health and general community services.

Approximately 25 per cent of organisations had engaged a project officer or consultant to assist their transition to the NDIS. Examples of readiness work undertaken by organisations included identifying business strengths, conducting market research into people in their community that might benefit from the Scheme, mapping existing services to supports provided under the Scheme, unbundling the cost elements of block funded services and doing activity based costing. Some organisations have examined their workforce mix including considering alternate staffing models such as greater use of therapy assistants and the development of a workforce pipeline through collaborative training and labour-hire type arrangements.

Mental health organisations interviewed indicated their focus was on better understanding how people with a psychosocial disability, as a result of a mental health condition, would enter the Scheme. Dual disability was acknowledged, however organisations were generally unaware that over 10 per cent of current

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2

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Scheme participants have a psychosocial disability22 and that most recent figures indicate that 79 per cent of people with a psychosocial disability submitting a request to access the Scheme are found eligible23.

The long history of block funding means the transition challenge to a model of individualised service that is paid upon delivery is particularly steep.24 However complementary reform directions in aged care and health are helping to ease the transition. For instance organisations delivering aged care services were taking steps to understand what it means to operate in an environment where the funding follows the person rather than the block funding model25.

It was commonly reported that organisations in remote areas take longer to prepare because of staff availability and/or turnover impacting on the capacity of organisations to accumulate knowledge of the Scheme. Similarly, organisations reported a lack of organisational resources for conducting their own market research. Further, service design from a community perspective takes time to seek advice and agreement from communities as to the way the organisation might become involved and develop its service offer.

When considering how the new disability marketplace might look, organisations interviewed were clear that individual agencies are typically not currently providing all the required services to meet the full range of participant’s disability needs in the community. Thus partnerships and collaboration was identified as the preferred model for working.

Organisations stated that there is a strong interest in working collaboratively with new suppliers to build their understanding and capability. Organisations believed new suppliers should demonstrate a commitment to engage and build local capacity, especially where possible, through locally employing staff. Organisations believed new suppliers could benefit from respecting and working closely with existing organisations, their communities and relationships as communities have a significant level of trust in existing organisations.

22 For 7% of current participants a psychosocial disability is their primary disability – see COAG Quarterly Report, 30 June 2016 page 3423 National Mental Health Sector Reference Group Communique October 2016 https://ndis.gov.au/NMHSRG-October-2016.html 24 For a fuller discussion of pricing challenges associated with remote service delivery see A National Costing and Pricing Framework for Disability Services http://business.curtin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2015/09/national-costing-pricing-framework-for-disability-services-Oct-2014.pdf 25 A ten year program of rolling reform in the aged care sector has increased choice and flexibility with altered funding arrangements so that funding is linked to the individual rather than the service. For more detail see https://agedcare.health.gov.au/aged-care-reform

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As one organisation stated, new suppliers to a community should be able to answer the question ‘What is (going to be) your legacy?’ This indicates that many suppliers are committed to a careful balancing of service delivery, community contribution and truly being a part of their community. Those organisations experienced in practical application of triple bottom line principles will be well placed to make good traction in these communities.

Service delivery

A third of the organisations interviewed were already providing NDIS supports. Some had grown their business whilst others were focusing on maintaining existing service delivery levels.

The range of services being provided to people with a disability included daily living support, accommodation, skill development or training, home maintenance and inclusion activities. Several providers had begun thinking about what additional supports they might deliver or how they might adapt existing culturally-focused community services to the needs of participants. Organisations particularly identified trust and cultural competency as foundational for successful remote service delivery. The challenges of remote service delivery are well documented26 and in the context of the NDIS a number of key themes were identified:

quality and safeguards27 – many providers supported improving the quality and safeguards in place, with some identifying this as their value proposition but that associated costs and potential implications for the required workforce growth needed to be carefully considered

infrastructure - existing infrastructure was seen as either limited, aging or potentially insufficient with a number of providers entering negotiations around use of shared resources

technology – the experience was mixed in relation to the availability and effectiveness of technology in remote communities and organisations reported a low to medium level of proficiency in the use of technology and systems

funding portability – when a participant moved outside of the Barkly difficulties were faced in procuring all of the supports a participant needed.

Organisations noted participant choice and control needed to be operationalised differently in the context of remote service delivery. It was commonly accepted that while provider choice may be limited, participants may be offered increasing choice in terms of being able to select specific support workers or nominate the day or time

26 http://www.aihw.gov.au/uploadedFiles/ClosingTheGap/Content/Publications/2011/ctgc-rs-08.pdf 27 Since the interviews the NT government have released the NT Quality & Safeguarding Framework which is available at https://www.ntmhc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/NT-Quality-and-Safeguarding-Framework.pdf

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in which a service is delivered. It was highlighted that attitudes which saw a person as a client of a single organisation that met all their needs were changing as a result of the introduction of the Scheme. This required effective coordination between organisations including seeking participant consent for organisations to share information about the person.

7.2 Themes of the emerging marketplace

Supply GapsMany organisations accepted that a level of unmet need is a current feature of remote communities. Providers also noted that whilst every service is likely to have the potential to expand, it may be insufficient to meet the range of needs of NDIS participants. One organisation preparing for Scheme entry in East Arnhem noted that whilst providers collectively possess a great knowledge of the people in the community, the knowledge around their disability related needs was less developed because disability has been a hidden need.

Organisations traditionally operating in an environment of limited funding had previously found it challenging to explore the needs of a person with a disability without creating an expectation of additional service provision which may go unrealised. Culture is another important consideration within Aboriginal controlled organisations who need to respond to the diversity of needs in the community when making decisions about service delivery.

The implementation of the Scheme is creating opportunities for organisations to better understand the extent of unmet need as recognition and understanding of disability increases. Aboriginal organisations with good governance and infrastructure were interested in taking advantage of these opportunities and looking at establishing commercial ventures, including labour hire, training and targeted infrastructure development.

Opportunities to address supply gaps were generally understood in terms of the potential to increase the volume of existing service offers including: allied health and paediatric services, supported accommodation, employment support and community activities. Opportunities to respond to new areas of need were less commonly identified. As one organisation noted, “if you don’t know what’s out there, you don’t know what to ask for”. An important exception was recognition of the need for new services to be developed to respond explicitly in a way that is culturally relevant to the community and participant.

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At this stage, participant plans in Barkly are largely Agency managed. However, other intermediary supports may be funded and included in a participant’s plan to assist and enable them to access supports and implement their plan. A number of providers identified the need for a greater supply of these intermediary type services.

WorkforceIn the Territory, business models are strongly influenced by workforce supply and can vary significantly between regions.

Organisations with a specialised workforce (especially allied health) tended to adopt fly-in-fly-out or drive-in-drive-out models as a means of delivering services in remote communities. Sources of labour included interstate professionals seeking career advancement or international arrangements i.e. international students or exchange programs. A number of organisational impacts associated with use of interstate practitioners were identified. For example:

workers had the necessary skills but took longer to build relationships and develop trust which impacted on desired outcomes

workers had a greater sense of social isolation and felt less connected to the organisation or community

complex and costly logistics around the management of workplace health and safety resulting in reduced service frequency

need to offer salary packages above award rates which is costly to maintain staff turnover.

While there were examples of visiting models being viable, providers repeatedly commented that outcomes were enhanced through having strong local relationships or local service infrastructure.

Organisations utilising a more generalist workforce (such as those providing assistance with daily living) tended to prefer a more localised staffing model which was associated with the following benefits:

workers build relationships of trust and have a closer connection to the needs of participants and the community

greater job flexibility, including part time employment and job-share type arrangements

flow-on community and economic benefits from local job creation opportunity to attract and develop local staff with complementary experience

in aged care and health

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training is more relevant, culturally appropriate28 and effective when it is delivered to workers close to the community or on-site.

A number of providers highlighted that it was difficult to source local training and that considerable investment was required to support the workforce to achieve minimum qualifications.

Supporting local Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employmentDuring interviews for the MPS the Agency regularly sought comment from organisations about what worked in supporting local and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employment. The following tips reflect the collective wisdom of those organisations.

Organisational considerations for improving local, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employment include:

Make a company-wide commitment from the top and embedded throughout the company noting that non Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander staff must work alongside and support the development of their Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander colleagues.

Seek partnerships with local employment organisations, work with training programs and utilise transition support to enable job readiness.

Implement a recruitment process in the community, explain the jobs and skills, support people with the application process, recruit for attitudes and provide on-the-job training to support development

Get to know your Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander staff members by understanding the cultural differences, their family obligations and at the same time informing families about the job their family member performs and their responsibilities.

Understand that supporting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employment is more than just entry level jobs; it’s about training and upskilling people and deliberately creating future career pathways.

Avoid making assumptions about performance and remember that English is a second/third/fourth language for many people.

Establish structures for open two-way conversations that facilitate problem solving and conflict management

Develop a workplace cultural policy that includes –

o cultural awareness for staff and management

28 Cultural considerations included: appropriateness of family members to stay in community; meeting family obligations and feeling social isolation when away from community

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o tools or systems to embed cultural understandingo consultation with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander staff on the

business and policies.

More information on resources to assist workforce and business development are included in Section 8.6.

Supporting Market Readiness The Commonwealth Department of Social Services (DSS), through the Sector Development Fund (SDF), in conjunction with states and territories, is providing support to the market, sector and workforce to transition to the NDIS. The SDF provides assistance to individuals and organisations to undertake sector development activities. Part of the role of the SDF is to examine and support mechanisms to ensure supply — including how to support existing providers to make the transition, and how to encourage innovation and change. Details on how to access some of the tools, resources and guides developed under the SDF are contained in Section 8.6.

The Agency as part of its market stewardship role, will continue to monitor the market issues raised by providers and undertake a number of actions to assist in building the capability of providers and the market more generally including:

reviews of price controls for supported independent living, community participation and high intensity supports

creation of a tool to assist providers negotiate pricing for supported independent living

benchmarking of service delivery models in the disability and adjacent sectors to establish an evidence base of efficient best-practice models

online provider toolkit, providing the most up to date information and assistance for registration and claiming

regular newsletters, both general and provider specific a rural and remote strategy to enable provision of supports in thin markets,

including development of a Provider of Last Resort framework

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8. Supporting NDIS transition

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Northern Territory8.1 Provider Toolkit

The Agency has developed a Provider Toolkit to assist Providers do business under the NDIS.

The purpose of the NDIS Provider Toolkit is to assist individuals and organisations become a registered provider under the NDIS. The Provider Toolkit includes answers to the most frequently asked questions from providers about aspects of the Scheme focusing on systems and processes. It also references key elements of the Agency’s operational policy which providers need to understand.

The Provider Toolkit contains important information about:

how the Scheme operates how to manage registration including relevant quality and safeguard

arrangements how to engage with and manage the supports provided to participants

(including how to claim for payment) changes in full Scheme to key provider processes which is of particular

importance to providers that have participated in the NDIS during trial.

The Toolkit is routinely being updated and is available on the NDIS website.

Figure 16 shows a diagrammatic view of the provider pathway as it relates to modules in the Provider Toolkit.

Figure 16 ‘Your guide to being a registered NDIS provider’ handout

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Northern Territory8.2 Outcomes Framework

The NDIS allows participants to use their support package to assist them to fully realise their potential, to participate in and contribute to society, and to have a say in their own future, just as other members of Australian society do.

The NDIS Outcomes Framework has been co-designed with the NDIA Independent Advisory Council and other stakeholders. The NDIS Outcomes Framework will monitor the progress of participants, their families and carers in key life domains.

The purpose of the Outcomes Framework is to:

assist with planning establish indicators of Scheme performance so Scheme progress can be

tracked and identify drivers of good outcomes for individuals.

The Outcomes Framework was piloted with a sample of participants and their families and carers in trial sites. There were different versions of the Outcomes Framework for different life stages: children from birth to school age, children from school age to 14, young adults 15 to 24, adults 25 to 55, and older adults over 55. The summary report of this pilot study can be found on the NDIS website.

There are different family/carer versions for participants aged 0 to 14, 15 to 24, and 25 and over. Easy English/pictorial versions have also been developed.

For the adult participant versions there are eight domains: choice and control, daily living, relationships, home, health and wellbeing, lifelong learning, work and social, community and civic participation.

Table 13 on the following page shows the domains of life around which the Framework is based. These domains apply to both participants and their families/carers and differ depending on the life stage of the participant.

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Northern TerritoryTable 13 Outcome framework domains

Participant version Family version, for participant aged…

DomainChildren from

0 to before starting school

Children from starting

school to age 14

Young adults 15 to 24

Adults 25 and over 0 to 14 15 to 24 25 and

over

1

Daily living Daily living Choice and control

Choice and control

Families know their rights and advocate effectively for their child with disability

Families know their rights and advocate effectively for their child with disability

Families know their rights and advocate effectively for their child with disability

2

Choice and control

Lifelong learning

Daily living Daily living Families feel supported

Families have the support they need to care

Families have the support they need to care

3

Relationships Relationships Relationships Relationships Families are able to gain access to desired services, programs and activities in their community

Families are able to gain access to desired services, programs and activities in their community

Families are able to gain access to desired services, programs and activities in their community

4

Social, community and civic participation

Social, community and civic participation

Home Home Families help their children develop and learn

Families help their young person become independent

Families have succession plans

5Health and wellbeing

Health and wellbeing

Families enjoy health and wellbeing

Families enjoy health and wellbeing

Families enjoy health and wellbeing

6 Lifelong learning

Lifelong learning

7 Work Work

8Social, community and civic participation

Social, community and civic participation

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Northern Territory8.3 Rural and Remote Strategy

The Agency has developed a Rural and Remote Strategy which guides how it will work with communities, governments and local service providers in rural and remote Australia.

One of the key outputs under this strategy is:

The range, choice and quality of disability supports available to a person in a rural or remote community is sustainable and as diverse as possible.

In rural and remote areas, geographic spread, low population density and limited infrastructure may adversely impact on the range, cost and availability of disability supports and services. Rural and remote communities may also experience difficulties in attracting and retaining a skilled workforce.

Supports and services may take on different forms or be provided in different ways in rural and remote areas. For example: leveraging off the high demand and success of tele-health, videoconferencing or support workers/therapy assistants working with support and professional supervision provided off site. In some instances, families, carers and informal support networks may play a greater role as there are fewer registered or mainstream supports and fewer people currently accessing disability supports.

At the same time there may be strong community networks that exist and local solutions that are already effective. These may be able to be further developed and strengthened to support people with disability, their families and carers to coordinate and integrate with other supports and services.

Where there are very few or no local providers or monopoly suppliers, the Agency may need to intervene to ensure the delivery of supports that facilitate achievement of outcomes for participants. Consistent with the Bilateral Agreement, the Agency is currently developing a Provider of Last Resort (POLR) framework to guide any necessary action.

The Agency wants to work with communities, governments and service providers who are committed to building capacity in rural and remote communities. Under the Rural and Remote Strategy, the Agency identifies the need to work closely with all governments, identifying local strengths to build on, and using new and accessible technologies. There will be significant opportunities for innovation, including through mainstream services.

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Northern Territory8.4 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Engagement Strategy

The Agency has developed an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Engagement Strategy which reflects the different needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with disability living in urban, rural and remote areas across Australia.

The Strategy articulates the Agency’s commitment and approach to meaningful engagement with diverse Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with disability in rural and remote regions of Australia, recognising the need for different approaches when engaging with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with disability in urban areas. The approach focuses on strengthening practical engagement activities to facilitate inclusion for all.

The Strategy has been developed through extensive consultation with stakeholders, including feedback and input from jurisdictions, NDIA business areas, and members of the Rural, Remote, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Reference and Working Groups. The Strategy builds on experience and work undertaken by states and territories to date and reflects the cross government approach.

The Strategy is expected to be available on the NDIS website early in 2017.

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Northern Territory8.5 Scheme Public Reports

Quarterly ReportsThe Actuary is responsible for monitoring Scheme performance and financial sustainability. Each quarter, the Actuary produces a public report to the COAG Disability Reform Council which is published on the NDIS website.

The most representative trial sites for full Scheme are Hunter and Barwon. This is due to those sites being inclusive of all ages, and having commenced on 1 July 2013, thus having the most experience and data.

The quarterly report to the COAG Disability Reform Council provides information about participants and the funding or provision of supports by the NDIA in each jurisdiction. The report includes:

progress against Statement of Strategic Guidance summary Report on Management of Scheme Cost Drivers and Agency Performance, split into three parts:

o Participant Outcomeso Financial Sustainabilityo Community Inclusion.

Participant DashboardsThe participant dashboard provides participant and plan statistics as at the end of each quarter. These include:

number of participants by eligibility and access type approved plans by month, age group, primary disability, management type

and cost bands and approved funded supports and actual committed supports.

Market dashboardsThe market dashboard provides snapshots of providers and market analytics as at each quarter along with detailed participant goals, outcomes and support package information by age band. These include:

registered providers by type, support cluster and registered support item participants with approved plans by age band, primary disability, cost band

and support category outcome statements for participants and family carers by age group total committed cost by support category for each age group.

The quarterly reports and state based dashboards can be found on the NDIS website.

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Northern Territory8.6 Business support and resources

Governments across Australia have undertaken a range of activities to assist providers become ready to deliver supports under the NDIS. The following, non-exhaustive list of resources, often developed using resources from the Commonwealth’s Sector Development Fund, are freely available and may be of some assistance in areas of business development, workforce planning and cultural competency. A list of Territory-based supports and resources is also provided. Hyperlinks are included where available.

Business development a self-assessment tool developed by National Disability Service (NDS), which

helps organisations rate their business practices for alignment to the NDIS a Costing and Pricing Learning Program developed by Curtin University to build

costing and pricing practice in small to medium sized organisations provider support resources addressing different aspects of engaging and

responding to consumer demand a self-paced self-assessment process developed by Queensland Council of

Social Services to assess readiness and develop a plan for the future end-to-end series of tools and resources developed by the Queensland

Government to assist organisations respond to consumer demand in the NDIS a range of information and readiness resources developed by the ACT

Government covering most facets of a disability business developed by the NSW government this program is designed to help

organisations develop their governance knowledge and board management skills also developed by the NSW government these tools assist businesses to

accurately cost their services and undertake financial management published by the Victorian government this Business guide is designed to assess

current organisational capability to deliver NDIS supports the Not For Profit Law Information Hub provides a range of information on

establishing a not for profit organisation and their legal obligations developed by Mental Health Australia in partnership these resources assist

businesses looking to deliver psychosocial supports determine their costs, workforce needs and marketing strategies

this toolkit developed by the NSW Government is designed to teach businesses how to calculate their unit costings

Workforce planning resources developed by Indigenous Allied Health Australia to support employers

of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islan der allied health workers

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Northern Territory developed under the auspices of ProjectABLE this site provides a free program for

students, offering interactive disability awareness training established by the NDS, CareCareers provides Jobs, Careers Advice & Courses

for the disability care sector developed by the ACT government the Workforce awareness checker allows

organisations to assess staff’s awareness of the NDIS this tool, the Community Sector Workforce Capability Framework developed by

the Victorian Government describes the broad capabilities required by people in community sector organisations

Local business supports and resourcesThe following is a list of the local services and supports to assist Territory businesses. Further detail and additional resources can be found at <http://www.startrungrow.nt.gov.au>:

Small Business Champions to help local business access government programs. The Business Growth program provides a package of assistance to help build

profitable, sustainable and capable businesses. the Business Innovation Support Initiatives program is an voucher scheme to

assist NT business to commercialise solutions to everyday problems. the Not-for-Profit Organisations Business Support program is a suite of

incentivised continuous improvement strategies to meet organisational needs. Smarter Business Solutions program provides tailored assistance and advice to

reduce energy, waste and water costs Grants to support Aboriginal employment initiatives Industry Buildskills Program assists NT employers to upskill or re-skill existing

workers. Indigenous Business Development Program assists Indigenous people to enter

commercial business or expand existing businesses Indigenous Responsive Program provides training for Indigenous people that links

to work ready or employment in Indigenous communities. Training for the Future - Employer Support Scheme and the Employer Incentive

Scheme provides financial assistance to businesses that employ apprentices and trainees.

Cultural competency the Northern Territory Government has developed a range of material to assist

organisations build their cultural capability and become “bush ready”.

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Northern Territory8.7 Infographic – accessible content

The Market highlights section contains an infographic that summarise key market information and estimates for the full implementation of the NDIS

The infographic shows a map of the Territory showing that the market will grow from $160 million in 2014 to $320 million in 2020.

On the left of the map is an expanded map of the Darwin Urban area showing the number of expected participants by 2020 in each local government area. Darwin is expected to have 2,050 participants, Litchfield 510, Palmerston 1,020 and Wagait, Belyuen and Coomalie each having less than 25 participants.

On the right is an arrow pointing to the East Arnhem area showing that roll out in that region commences 1 January 2017 and that 500 participants are expected by 2020.

Underneath the maps is a bar graph showing that the workforce needed to meet the increased demand will grow from between 975 and 1,375 in 2014 to between 2,150 and 2,700 by 2020.

On the right of the infographic at the bottom of the page is a column graph showing the number of participants entering the Scheme each year from 2016 to 2020. The graph shows that the numbers increase from 3,200 people in 2014 to 6,545 by 2020.

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Northern Territory8.8 Data considerations

This MPS is being released knowing there are some data limitations but consistent with the Agency’s commitment to provide as much useful information for the disability marketplace as possible.

The growth projections are based on the work of the Productivity Commission and their inquiry into disability care and support.29 The inquiry provided national figures for the number of people eligible for the Scheme (approximately 460,000 in 2019/20) and these have been used as the basis for projections of the number of participants in the Territory. Using the work of the Productivity Commission, participant population estimates for each state and territory were developed based on that jurisdiction’s share of the national population estimate. State and territory splits were based on the same methodology developed by COAG.

The data on the extent and prevalence of disability in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities has some limitations30. The Productivity Commission also noted it was very difficult to provide accurate numbers of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with disability for two reasons – higher rates of non-response to surveys and their likely inaccuracy in capturing accurate rates of disability due to some Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons finding the concept of disability hard to understand or irrelevant. There is certainly a different cultural understanding of disability amongst Indigenous populations that will present challenges for the roll out of the Scheme in the NT.

The Productivity Commission’s estimates allow for a higher prevalence of disability amongst Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The Productivity Commission cited research indicating the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with a profound or severe core activity limitation is around 2.2 times the rate of non-Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.

Demand for supports is based on Agency modelling of the full Scheme participant population. A number of assumptions have been made to estimate the prevalence of disability at a service region level. The specific mix and severity of disability in each area cannot be determined and hence this is assumed to be constant across service regions.

Similarly, national benchmarks have been used to estimate the types of supports and services in demand for each state and territory. This allows the Agency to provide estimates where specific geographical data is not yet available.

29 http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disability-support/report 30 http://aihw.gov.au/indigenous-statistics-quality-availability/

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Northern TerritoryRegional participant projections should also be treated with caution. Participant location is extrapolated from residential postcodes however in some instances this data is not currently available. Service delivery location is an unreliable alternative to postcode due to the large distances – sometimes interstate - a person may travel to access service.

Providers are therefore encouraged to undertake their own extensive market research before making decisions about growth or changing their service types to account for the NDIS.

Another matter of note is the rounding of figures. The same approach has been used in this document as in earlier MPSs, however when dealing with small numbers readers need to be aware of the potential effect. For instance, all expected participants have entered the Scheme in Barkly. Estimates were that 149 persons would enter, with the current number of participants being 155. Rounding up to the nearest fifty suggests that numbers may increase to 200 participants – a 100 per cent increase from the 100 people receiving disability supports prior to trial. Whilst on current expectations this is unlikely, the rounding effect does allow for some natural growth in participant numbers.

Naturally interpretation of this data is subject to challenge and where relevant, this MPS has referenced where interpretation is in dispute. However for the most part interpretation is left for the reader and organisations are encouraged to supplement this MPS with their own market analysis.

60January 2017 Northern Territory Market Position Statement