forex market insight 29 august 2011

8/4/2019 Forex Market Insight 29 August 2011

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Market Insights 29 August 2011

Risk appetite improves after Ben Bernanke uses Jackson Hole speech to state confidence in US economy

Dow closes 1.2% higher (after early losses) on Feds wait-and-see approach

USD weakens substantially against risk currencies, AUD/USD breaks higher

EUR and GBP both see gains after Jackson Hole, but USD/CHF surges after breaking above 80.00

Gold resumes upward trajectory, crude ends virtually flat

Tonight we have German CPI, US pending home sales and ECB president Trichet is speaking

Headlines

AUD/USD

XAU/USD

Resistance

1.0600

Support

1.0500Market Sentiment

Bullish

AUD/USD broke above the upside of the symmetrical triangle formation after Bernankes Jackson Hole speech and this willchange the markets view to bullish. With clear resistance at 1.0600, theres the possibility of a move back to 1.0500 andsuch a move would be seen as a buying opportunity. A break above 1.0600 will also be seen as bullish.

Golds gains on Friday worked as confirmation for the previous days bullish reversal signal and gold traders will now befocused again on the long side. A pullback to support at 1800 will be seen as buyable while a break above 1840 will also beused as a trigger for new longs.

Resistance

1840

Support

1800Market Sentiment

Bullish


2/4

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has moved back into the trading range between 76.30 on the downside and 77.00/20 on the topside. Traders wibe looking to work the trading range in the near term, with an eye on the fact that last weeks false break above 77.20 will bseen as a bearish sign.

The GBP/USD is an uncertain position after seeing its short-term pullback exhaust itself around 1.6200. Traders will belooking for shorts on any move back to 1.6400 or on a break below 1.6200. However, a move above 1.6400 will seen traderstargeting a move back to 1.6600 on the long side.

The Euro provided another opportunity for traders to get long at 1.4350 on Friday before pushing back to the top of the zonat 1.4500. While we have a bullish bias on EUR/USD, traders are likely to work shorts around 1.4500/40 until we see a decisivebreak higher. A pullback to 1.4350 remains buyable.

Resistance

1.4500/40

Support


Neutral

Resistance

1.6400

Support


Neutral

Resistance

77.00/20

Support


Bearish


3/4

SILVER

USD/CHF

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY remains trapped in a bearish phase with traders looking to get in the short side. Toward the end of last week, wsaw GBP/JPY start to increase momentum to the downside, so traders might be looking for more aggressive shorts aroun126.00 rather than waiting for a move back to 127.00.

The dollar-Swisss break above 80.00 will be seen as a bullish sign by the market and traders will be looking for newopportunities to get long this pair. A natural pullback to retest 80.00 will be seen as a buyable in expectation of a move bac

to 81.50.

Silver has continues to push higher after finding lows around 39.00. Looking higher, the next key level of resistance is a42.00, and traders will be looking to build longs on any pullbacks to 41.20 or 40.00, with a break of 42.00 also seen abuyable.

Resistance

42.00

Support


Bullish

Resistance

81.50

Support


Bullish

Resistance

127.00

Support


Bearish


4/4

AUD/JPY

OIL

Economic Calendar

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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last

AUD: HIA New Home Sales -8.7% USD: Personal Spending 0.5% -0.2% EUR: German Prelim CPI 0.0% 0.4% ECB: Trichet Speaks USD: Core PCE Price Index 1.84 2.04 USD: Pending Home Sales -0.8% 2.4%

Oil continues to provide very little action for traders with crude trapped between 85.00 on the downside and 86.30 on the

upside. A break of 86.30 will be seen as bullish.

AUD/JY traders continue to wait for a break above 81.20 for new long positions. Weve seen a break higher in the AUD/USDand this means a break higher on the AUD/JPY should be just around the corner. A break of 81.20 will target 82.00.

Resistance

86.30Support


Neutral

Resistance

81.20Support


Bullish

forex market insight 29 august 2011

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