formation of interregional distribution grid company jsc idgc of the center
DESCRIPTION
Formation of Interregional Distribution Grid Company JSC IDGC of the Center. December 20 , 200 7. Strategy of cost evaluation of IDGC/DGC and main proposals. Evaluation Strategy. Date of evaluation – June 30, 2007. Termination of prognostic period. –. 2015. DCF. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Formation of Interregional Distribution Grid Company JSC IDGC of the Center
December 20,2007
2
Strategy of cost evaluation of IDGC/DGC and main proposals
3
Evaluation Strategy
Date of evaluation – June 30, 2007 . Termination of prognostic period – 2015
Main proposals - Switch during 2010-2012 to RAB regulation- - Restriction of transfer tariff growth in 2010-2014 - Payment for connection is taken into account in proceeds, capital ,
investments but is not considered in the capital base,
100%DCF
Calculation is based on the net asset method.Market value = RCN (full replacement cost) t
– Physical depreciation– External depreciation
External depreciation is defined as correlation between the existing capital investmentsand the required ones.
Expense approach was not used because it is impossible to define the amount of external Depreciation during absence of the technical audit and detailed information ( load,
transfer volume, etc) on each center of the distribution grid.
,
.
0%Expense approach
Method of similar companies was not applied because the selected companies that render services on Transfer of electric energy do not possess characteristics necessary for applying the comparative
approach – there is considerable difference in the scale, maturity, level of diversity and organisation models of their business. The transition method was not applied because the data on
Purchase contracts of distribution grid assets is absent due to the business monopoly.
- ,
–
.
0%Comparative
approach
4
Main propositions of DCF evaluation
* Plan of organic growth** On the basis of average historical exceeding of the tariff growth over inflation.
*
Regulation
2H2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Expenses + Transition period RAB regulation
Macroeconomicindicators Deloitte
Electric energy supply Business plans of DGC Growth rates included (Deloitte)*
Volume of losses Business plans of DGC By 2015 is to enter the target levelг
Payment of losses Business plans of DGC According to day-ahead prices (Deloitte)
Operational expenses Business plans of DGC- Inflation growth rate included
Capitalinvestments Business plans of DGC-
At the amortization level of the previous year
Restriction of Tariff growth Business plans of DGC- At inflation growth rate of + 4%**
Capital base Fixed assets 1H2007 (re-estimated according to Russian
Accounting Standards) + investments (without payment for Connection) + circulating capital
5
Calculation of tariffs according to the method of the investment capital profitability (RAB)
It is supposed that from 2010 to 2012 Expenses+ strategy of tariff regulation on transfer of e/energy through distribution grids will be replaced by the method of profitability of the invested capital ( RAB –return on Regulatory Asset Base).
The essence of RAB strategy is guarantee of full return of the means invested into the assets of the company during the fixed period that corresponds to the terms of validity of the assets and reception of the stable income the level of which is defined by the regulator that must conform to the risk profile of DGC and guarantee attractiveness of the branch for the investors.
Operational expenses include all the field costs of the company except for amortization of the fixed assets, intangible assets.
Return on the capital base must guarantee reproduction of the assets that are effectively used at transfer of electric energy through DGC’s grids.
Profit of the capital base is defined by the norm of profitability (regulatory WACC) fixed by the regulator the stake of which will be fixed for the long-term period of regulation equal to all DGC.
= + +Necessary gross return
by RAB method
Operational expenses
Return on the capital base
Profit of the capital base
Capital base x WACC
(regulatory)
6
Calculation of the capital base for tariff calculation by RAB method
= + +Regulatory
capital base (as of the
beginning of 2010)
Initial capital as of the beginning of
2010
Cost of capital investments for 2H2007-2009.
Circulating capital as of the
beginning of 2010
For the purpose of correct prognosis of indicators of the operational activity of the distribution grid companies after switch to the system of regulation of their tariffs on the basis of RAB method, calculation of the regulator capital base for the moment of the planned introduction of new rules of tariff design (beginning of 2010) was realised.
The initial capital is defined as the cost of the fixed assets that are on the balance of the company as of June 30,2007 and that were re-estimated according to Russian Accounting Standards for the end of 2009.
Capital investments for 2H2007-2009 from business plans of the companies
Circulating capital is defined on the basis of the existing circulation factors and their correspondence to average branch indicators during the accounting period.
In the following years of the regulation period the regulatory capital base is calculated by the following way:
= +-Regulatory capital base
Regulatory capital base of the previous
year
Investments on the level of amortization of the previous year
Change of the
circulating capital
+Amortization
7
• The initial capital used for defining of the regulatory capital base as of the beginning of 2010 is defined as the full cost of asset replacement with regard of their physical depreciation:
The initial capital is defined proceeding from the current legislation concerning estimation of cost of the fixed assets for the purpose of book keeping
Only the industrial assets are included into initial base of the invested capital (OL, substations, transformer substations), non-profile assets are not considered at calculation of the capital base
The investments that were realised at the expense of payment for technical connection are not included into the capital base in order to avoid double calculation.
Full cost of replacement is defined as cost of production or construction under the current conditions of the similar new object that by its functional characteristics is as much as possible similar to the estimated object.
• Physical depreciation is price decrease due to depreciation, dilapidation and aging, and also deterioration of properties that cannot be eliminated at the expense of the current service.
Calculation of the capital base for tariff calculation by RAB method
8
Discount rate and regulatory norm of profitability
Cost of the owned capital Risk-free rate (nominal) 5.21%
Market premium 5.50% Beta (unlevered) 0.87
Corrected Beta ratio 0.60 Country risk 0.01
Specific risk for the reformation period 0.00%Final cost of the owned capital of the company 10.95%
Premium for small-cap 2.28% – 6.27%Debt capital cost
Cost of debt funds (before taxation) 10.32%Tax profit rate 24.00%Cost of debt funds (after taxation) 7.84%
Structure of the capitalTarget correspondence of debt to owned capital 61.00%
WACC for discounting 11.18% – 13.67%Regulatory WACC before taxation 9.78%
Regulatory WACC after taxation 12.86%
Calculation of WACC rates
9
Macroeconomic assumptions for model building
The main cost items are predicted on the basis of price indexes in the industry of the RF.
Wage expenses are predicted in accordance with the pay indexes
Prognosis of electric energy losses in physical terms is based on linear variation of the given indicator during the horizon period and achievement of the target indicator by 2015
Prognosis of electric energy losses in percent to net supply for 2015 is provided by JSC UES FGC
Calculation of flat cost is based on the following assumptions:
Macroeconomic assumptions
Indicators6 months of
20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inflation in the RF,CPI 4,50% 8,00% 7,60% 7,10% 6,50% 6,00% 5,50% 4,50% 4,00%
Cumulative inflation index 108,00% 116,20% 124,50% 132,50% 140,50% 148,20% 154,90% 161,10% 167,50%
Price index in the industry of the RF, PPI
4,90% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,50% 5,50% 5,00% 4,00% 3,50%
Pay index in the RF 10,10% 13,00% 12,00% 11,00% 13,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 7,00%
Exchange rate ruble/ US dollar (average annual)
26,50 27,20 28,20 29,00 29,10 30,04 30,85 31,39 31,79
Inflation in the USA, CPI 1,80% 2,50% 2,50% 2,50% 2,50% 2,50% 2,50% 2,50% 2,50%
Source: documents adopted by the Evaluation Committee under the Board of Directors of JSC RAO UES of Russia
10
Review of indicators of DGC that are included in the zone of responsibility of JSC IDGC of the Center
11
IDGC of the Center
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000 ВН
СН
НН
Length of OL in DGC, kmGeographical position of IDGC
Refusals of connection, МВА
Investment requirements of DGC, billion rublesDepreciation of the fixed assets, %
Data: Business plans of DGC
Summed installed capacity of TCP and Sb, MVA
2 734
743
1 513 1 349 1 313
1 015 792
1 798
939
1 545
904
2 877
2 209
4 281
1 627
3 216
2 364
1 640
2 978
2 399
3 880
2 782
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
CTS capacity
Sb capacity
Belgorodenergo, 7.3
Bryanskenergo 1.9
Voronezhenergo, 2.9
Kostromaenergo, 1.4
Kurskenergo, 2.8
Lipetskenergo, 4.7
Orelenergo 1.4
Smolenskenergo, 2.7
Tambovenergo 1.3
Twerenergo, 1.8
Yarenergo, 2.6
40,00%
47,50%
55,00%
62,50%
0 150 300 450
12
10,0% 12,5%17,9% 21,0%
7,2% 6,2%
6,9%8,8%13,7% 12,3%
13,0%10,2%6,8% 8,2%
4,5%6,3%9,1% 9,5%
9,1%7,7%7,0% 7,3%
12,4% 9,6%7,6% 6,4%
3,8% 4,6%10,2% 11,2%5,8% 7,6%
7,8% 7,0% 5,5% 4,7%
13,7% 12,5%8,2% 8,7%
6,9% 6,9%12,8% 10,8%
YarenergoTverenergoTambovenergoSmolenskenergoOrelenergoLipetskenergoKurskenergoKostromaenergoVoronezhenergoBryanskenergoBelgorodenergo
Length 367.7 thous.km.*
Power 1 318,8 thous.
c.u.*
Productive supply 27 958,2 Mio.kWh **
Proceeds15 820,6 mln.rbl. **
* Data as of the end of the 1st half of 2007** for the 1st half of 2007.
IDGC of the Center
13
4 109,6
1 920,4
2 202,5
1 216,2
2 585,8
4 427,0
1 253,3
2 696,8
1 273,4
1 750,2
2 359,6
3 209,7
730,0
14,0
228,7
187,2
316,3
170,0
5,5
0,0
0,0
285,9
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000
Inv estment program, thous.rbl.
Belgorodenergo
Bry anskenergo
Voronezhenergo
Kostromaenergo
Kurskenergo
Lipetskenergo
Orelenergo
Smolenskenergo
Tambov energo
Tw erenergo
Инвестпрограмма без тех присоед. Тех присоединение
0,26
0,14
0,14
0,10
0,15
0,27
0,08
0,09
0,11
0,09
0,22
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3
Belgorodenergo
Bryanskenergo
Voronezhenergo
Kostromaenergo
Kurskenergo
Lipetskenergo
Orelenergo
Smolenskenergo
Tambovenergo
Twerenergo
Yarenergo
7,7%
5,2%
10,7%
16,9%
10,1%
8,7%
13,7%
18,1%
7,7%
15,3%
7,6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Belgorodenergo
Bry anskenergo
Voronezhenergo
Kostromaenergo
Kurskenergo
Lipetskenergo
Orelenergo
Smolenskenergo
Tambov energo
Tw erenergo
Yarenergo
Investment program of DGC for 2Н2007-2010, mln rbl. Amount of losses at transfer of e/e in 2006, %
Correlation – transfer of e/e (mln kW*hour)/ length of OL (km) in 2006.
IDGC of the Center
9 580,4
3 767,5
7 289,1
2 485,0
5 152,0
6 973,6
2 248,8
3 265,5
3 038,1
4 500,7
5 743,4
795,4
871,4
812,8
206,8
508,6
580,0
661,5
357,4
719,7
253,8
470,8
1 000 2 500 4 000 5 500 7 000 8 500 10 000 11 500
Belgorodenergo
Bryanskenergo
Voronezhenergo
Kostromaenergo
Kurskenergo
Lipetskenergo
Orelenergo
Smolenskenergo
Tambovenergo
Twerenergo
Yarenergo
Передача э/э
Потери э/э
Productive supply and losses of e/e in DGC in 2006, mln. kWhour
Data: DGC Business plans
14
Results of evaluation
15
JSC Bryanskenergo7,0%
JSC Kostromaenergo5,3%
JSC Kurskenergo8,9%
JSC Lipetskenergo8,5%
JSC Orelenergo3,9%
JSC Smolenskenergo6,5%
JSC Tambovenergo3,8%
JSC Belgorodenergo25,4%
JSC Voronezhenergo16,6%
JSC Twerenergo5,1%
JSC Yarenergo9,0%
* On the basis of the assumption that all DGC will take resolutions on reorganisation of the companies in the form of connection to the corresponding IDGC, without consideration of the stake of the existing IDGC.
Stake of RAO UES – 50.23%
Stake of DGC at technical connection to IDGC of the Center*
16
Calculated ratios of conversion/exchange
ORS/PRSJSC IDGC of the CenterJSC Belgorodenergo 78 000 / 738 687 280JSC Bryanskenergo 78 000 / 18 572 663JSC Voronezhenergo 78 000 / 7 453 771JSC Kostromaenergo 78 000 / 327 431 JSC Kurskenergo 78 000 / 212 429JSC Lipetskenergo 78 000 / 1 798 460JSC Orelenergo 78 000 / 542 455JSC Smolenskenergo 78 000 / 918 754JSC Tambovenergo 78 000 / 73 076JSC Twerenergo 78 000 / 371 625
Ratios of conversion/exchageCompany
17
Appendices
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IDGC of the Center
OL 110-150 kV, km OL 35 kV, km OL 1-20 kV, km OL 0,4 kV, kmRate of OL110-150
kV, %Rate of OL 35 kV,
%Rate of OL 1-20
kV, %Rate of OL 0,4 kV,
%
JSC Belgorodenergo 1 645 2 450 17 454 15 333 8% 8% 10% 11%JSC Bryanskenergo 1 751 1 755 12 333 10 481 8% 6% 7% 7%
JSC Voronezhenergo 3 105 3 685 20 452 23 059 15% 12% 12% 16%
JSC Kostromaenergo 1 770 2 549 11 497 9 014 8% 8% 7% 6%
JSC Kurskenergo 1 909 2 824 15 007 13 735 9% 9% 9% 9%JSC Lipetskenergo 1 517 2 311 11 706 10 339 7% 8% 7% 7%JSC Orelenergo 1 361 1 864 12 877 11 712 6% 6% 8% 8%JSC Smolenskenergo 2 561 3 770 19 120 12 118 12% 12% 11% 8%
JSC Tambovenergo 1 876 3 155 11 896 11 803 9% 10% 7% 8%JSC Twerenergo 2 720 3 988 26 317 17 321 13% 13% 15% 12%JSC Yarenergo 1 030 2 084 12 024 10 396 5% 7% 7% 7%
Total 21 245 30 435 170 683 145 311 100% 100% 100% 100%
Productive supply of e/e (with regard of
losses) in 2006, mln kW*hour
Productive supply of e/e (with regard of
losses) for the 1st half of 2007, mln kW*hour
Losses in 2006, mln kW*hour
Amount of losses in 2006, %
Proceeds in 2006, thous.rbl.
Proceeds for the 1st half of 2007, thous.
rbl.
Tariffs on transfer of e/e in 2006, rbl/MW*hour
JSC Belgorodenergo 9 580,4 5 006,4 795,4 7,7% 4 962 756,7 3 328 613,4 480,2
JSC Bryanskenergo 3 767,5 1 920,7 206,8 5,2% 1 527 536,0 1 389 297,9 400,0JSC Voronezhenergo 7 289,1 3 636,3 871,4 10,7% 2 756 784,1 1 620 382,7 372,8JSC Kostromaenergo 2 485,0 1 271,4 508,6 17,0% 1 664 313,8 995 249,7 640,6JSC Kurskenergo 5 152,0 2 556,0 580,0 10,1% 2 398 718,0 1 216 634,4 460,9JSC Lipetskenergo 6 973,6 3 475,1 661,5 8,7% 2 524 778,5 1 520 684,2 333,5JSC Orelenergo 2 248,8 1 075,8 357,4 13,7% 1 085 440,0 732 802,0 473,7JSC Smolenskenergo 3 265,5 1 623,1 719,7 18,1% 2 316 465,9 1 203 321,6 660,2JSC Tambovenergo 3 038,1 1 527,6 253,8 7,7% 1 423 596,0 737 977,0 463,9JSC Twerenergo 4 500,7 2 292,6 812,8 15,3% 2 378 545,0 1 370 221,3 514,6JSC Yarenergo 5 743,4 3 573,2 470,8 7,6% 2 872 758,8 1 705 374,3 481,8Total 54 044,1 27 958,2 6 238,2 25 911 692,6 15 820 558,5
Length of OL by classes of voltage, km
Economic indicators of work of DGC for 2006 and 1st half of 2007 *
*Preliminary data for the 1st half of 2007 Source: Business plans of DGC
19
Technological connection- refusals in connection for 2006 – 1st half of 2007.
Refused connection to DGC, (2006 ), kW
Refused connection to DGC (1st half of 2007 ), kW
JSC IDGC of the CenterJSC Belgorodenergo 0 0JSC Bryanskenergo 0 1 287JSC Voronezhenergo 168 0JSC Kostromaenergo 0 0JSC Kurskenergo 0 0JSC Lipetskenergo 12 358 16 360JSC Orelenergo 29 000 10 983JSC Smolenskenergo 0 0JSC Tambovenergo 0 0JSC Twerenergo 6 936 2 046JSC Yarenergo 0 0Total 48 463 30 676
Source: data of UES FGC
20
System of standard units
According to the System of standard units for distribution of the general tariff proceeds by classes of voltage adopted by Decree N 25/3 of the Energy Commission of the RF as of May 12, 2000 as appendix to the Strategy of calculation of the amount of payment for the services on transfer of electric energy:
Amount of the overhead power transmission lines (OPTL) and cable power transmission lines (CPTL) is defined in standard units depending from length, voltage,design and material of the supports *:
PTL Voltage, kV Amount of chains on the support Material of the supportsAmount of standard units for 100 km of
OL right-of-way
OPTL 110-150 1 wood 180Metal 160
ferroconcrete 1302 metal 270
ferroconcrete 18035 1 wood 170
metal 140ferroconcrete 120
2 metal 180ferroconcrete 150
1-20 1 wood 160Wood on ferroconcrete stubs 140
ferroconcrete, metal 1100,4 1 260
220150
CPTL 110 230020-35 4703-10 350
Up to 1 kV 270
Amount of substations, transformer substations (TS), complex transformer substations (CTS),etc. *:
Name Measurement unit Amount of standard units for 1 measurement unit110-150 kV 35 kV 1-20 kV
Substation SB 105 75 -
Power transformer (one- or three-phase) or reactor or booster transformer
Equipment unit 7,8 2,1 1,0
One-transformer TSB, CTSB TSB, CTSB - - 2,3
Two-transformer TSB, CTSB TSB, CTSB - - 3,0
One-transformer substation 34/0,4 kV SB - 3,5 -
* Extracts on certain kinds of equipment are presented