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Early warning signals and preventive actions

Introdution understanding conflicts

In theory a conflict cycle can be defined in terms of Peace – Conflict – Resolution but in Practice the situation is much more complex than that.

Because Even in times of relative Peace and stability structural conditions in a country can degenerate over time to potential violent eruptions

Cont…

A combination of factors determine weather a conflict

escalates, recedes or maintains the same tempo

and the passage from one stage to another is not a result

of a single event that takes place at the point of transition

Hence warning signals should be studied carefully and

preventive actions taken in all societies with great caution

What are warning signs?

Warning signals are clues or alerts on potential

eruptions of violent expressions of conflict in any given

context.

Effective early warnings combine historical, social,

political and humanitarian information in order to

forecast the dynamics of a particular conflict.

What are preventive actions?

These are the measures or procedures taken to avoid

or stop an emerging violent eruption

• These measures are usually drafted and implemented by international bodies like UN, AU, SADC & by NGOs

• The UN department of political affairs has primary responsibility within the UN secretariat for preventive action and peacemaking.

• It identifies potential or actual conflict in whose resolution the UN could play a useful role on development and in situations affecting peace and security.

Trainings were held and about 200 staff members

taught on how to identify the causes and stages of

conflict, structuring early warning analysis and

considering and coordinating a range of preventive

measures

An effective early warning system involves

1. Information- obtaining the necessary quantity and

quality of intelligence in a reliable and timely fashion

2. Analysis- Avoiding misperceptions or faulty analysis of

the likelihood of diffusion and escalation of the conflict,

the impact on interests and the potential risk and cost of

both action and inaction.

Quality personnel and relevant technology is necessary.

War is a enterprise or a business

Weapons and all sorts of

ammunition is bought and its

business as usual and it is an

investment opportunity to

someone

Someone gains power and

resources

What is in it for the fighters.

Why are the people fighting ? Is

it their love for their nation or

its love for the gun they are

using killing?

Read between the lines and see hidden agendas

"War is brutality with no limits to its appetites for violence.“ Gandhi

Deferent Interests No

communication

No Communication

Interpretation of the situation and a accurate analysis of the conflict is essential in dictating early warning signs

Inevitable Fight. Strained relationship

Peace talks Win-win outcome

Conflict cycle

No- conflict

Latent conflict

Emerging Conflict

Conflict climax

Rising Conflict

Dispute Settlement

De-escalation

Peace building

- This is a conflict map showing the usual transition of a conflict.

- Not all conflicts escalate and settle in this manner

Early warning

signs invisible

Early warning

signs visible

Poverty and Conflicts

World map showing countries above and below the world GDP (PPP) per capita, currently $10,700. Source: IMF (International Monetary Fund). Blue above world GDP (PPP) per capita Orange below world GDP (PPP) per capita

Microsoft word

Virgil Hawkins, provides a useful map representing conflict death tolls between 1990 and 2007 (casualties of conflicts) this also serves as evidence of conflict stricken areas.

There are over 9 million refugees and internally displaced people.

Combined the last two slides can be interpreted as evidence of the relation ship between Poverty and Violent Conflict.

Slide 12 shows a map of poor countries which is

hugely a composition of African and Asian

countries

And slide 13 is a map of countries in conflict which

Insinuates they African and Asian countries have

high conflict death tolls

Poverty and Conflicts

• Unemployment leads to increased poverty levels

• Poverty increases the risk of conflict emergence

• There are political, social, economic and

environmental factors leading to poverty in the

process increasing the chance of violent outbreaks

• Poverty is an international phenomenon hence

Conflicts are all over the world

•Politics is the Drive of all nations. This means it determines violent or peace conflict settlements •Bad governance leads to poverty

•Unfair distribution of wealth – unemployment, gender in-equality and corruption. etc… •An oppressive Government is like a time bomb waiting to explode

Political factors

- Cultural clashes, misunderstandings (tribalism) age distribution - Social inequalities leading to poverty.

•Population growth (Over population) •Health and education facilities

Social Factors

Residents of the Nigerian village of Dogo Nahawa stand by a mass grave on March 8, 2010, as health officials cover bodies of people killed during a religious clash with the Hausa-Fulan Read more:

Extremist religious groups ( intolerance)

Isil Boko Haram Al-qaeda etc

Green represents Islam countries while the tiny red is Israel a Jewish country

Economic Indicators

Alaskan Trommel at the Potato Patch, Blue Ribbon Mine

Loss of Jobs Hyper inflation Abuse of resources

Environmental Factors - Pollution - Land degradation( poor farming, veld fires and un-orthodox mining activities) - Nuclear power effect - Greenhouse effect

Environmental factors ecological and environmental aspects such as weather, land and forest degradation and climate change, may affect industries such as tourism, farming, insurance and other aspects of life leading to unemployment and poverty. Furthermore, growing awareness of the potential impacts of climate change is affecting how companies operate and the products they offer, both creating new markets and diminishing or destroying existing ones which is another impoverishing factor.

Examples of early signs

• Bad or non-existent communications systems (especially in conflict situations)

• Humanitarian Crisis, unfair treatment of people

• Regular Demonstrations protests and strikes

• When people are pushed too far (oppressed) violence becomes inevitable

• Illegitimacy of leaders

• Greed and strife for Power

Constant or Regular demonstrations and protests

African Union

(UN) United Nations

(SADC) Southern African Development Community

These are some of the international

organisations involved in trying

dictate early warning signs and

implement preventive action

The OSCE works to prevent conflicts from arising and to facilitate lasting comprehensive political settlements for existing conflicts. It also helps with the process of rehabilitation in post-conflict areas. It co-operates with representatives of the United Nations and other international organizations operating in areas of conflict.

NGO and Regional organisation are involved in Conflict prevention Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) International Crisis Group (ICG) (ECOWAS) Crisis management is one of NATO's

fundamental security tasks. It can involve military and non-military measures to respond to a threat, be it in a national or an international situation.

Organisations involved in preventive action and dictating early warning signs

How to prevent the outbreak, escalation and recurrence of deadly conflict and mass violence

No One size analysis doesn’t fit all approach - No strait jacket Approach Every conflict is different Conflict is cyclical: the trick is to stop the wheel turning Something has to be done. Inaction is deadly Conflict prevention requires complex strategies: one-dimensional fixes rarely work Use all possible means Conflict prevention requires effective institutional structures. Develop effective conflict prevention structures Conflict prevention requires application of resources Don’t hesitate to spend money on conflict prevention Conflict prevention requires political will. Policies and critical political decisions have to be made to prevent conflicts The World needs leaders who are willing to get their hands dirty and who will deliberately engage in peaceful settlements and do all time takes to prevent violent conflict outcomes.