Fossil Fuel Trends

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2000 2050

Global population (in millions) 6065 9030

Energy demand (quads) 385 1500

North America 90 120

Latin America 35 150

Europe 110 130

Africa 15 200

Asia 135 900

Carbon emission (gigatons/year) 7 26

PROJECTIONS 2000-2050

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Global Energy Consumption

● In 2005 total was 447 Quads/yr = 15 TW

1 Quad = 1015 Btu 1 TW-year = 29.9 Quads

US share ~22% ~86% from fossil fuels

● By 2030, total is expected to be 702 Quads/yr

fossil fuel fraction still ~86%

● Fossil fuels are a finite resource. When will we run out?

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4

5

6

6000 QuadsGlobal usage = 100 Q/y

503 to 1500 Quads

960 Quads

105 to 3x109

Quads

10,000 QuadsGlobal usage = 161 Q/yUS ~ 25%

500 Quads

2,000 Quads

14,000 Quads

World coal reserves ~22,000 Quads

Fossil Fuel Reserves

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8

9

10

QAd4150x PPT

PRODUCED

TO BE DISCOVERED

FIELD RESERVE GROWTH

PROVED RESERVES

TOTAL

REMAINING

875

150

0

900

1925

1050

BEARS USGS MEAN BULLS

ULTIMATE OIL RECOVERY ESTIMATES (BB)

710

732

688

891

3021

2311

950

900

950

1265

4065

3115

(1995)

(1995)

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Has oil production peaked? A sampling of opinion (2008)

“For the past three years, global oil production has remained constant at roughly 85 million barrels per day. OPEC production has remained largely flat while non-OPEC supply growth has been well below levels seen just four years ago… If there are no additional supplies of oil, for every 1 percent increase in demand, we would expect a 20 percent increase in price to balance the market.”

Samuel Bodman, U.S. Energy Secretary, at a June 22 oil summit in Saudi Arabia

“Political factors, barriers to entry and high taxes all play a role here. In other words, when it comes to producing more oil, the problems are aboveground, not below it. They are not geological, but political.”

Tony Hayward, BP CEO, during a June 11 presentation on BP’s annual world energy report

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Has oil production peaked?

“The imminent peak in global oil production has been predicted for a century – but incorrectly; it has not occurred. This does not mean that it will not occur ever… But we need to be aware that some of the very arguments we are hearing today have been heard before – and have, in retrospect, been scaremongering.”

Peter Davies, BP’s Special Economic Adviser, in January 16 speech to a peak oil group in London

“The global economy is facing the third great oil shock of recent decades… We are becoming increasingly aware of the technical, financial and political barriers to the production of more oil.”

Gordon Brown, Prime Minister of Britain, in a May 28 commentary published in the Guardian

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Has oil production peaked?

“There is enough oil and gas in the ground, but the access is what’s impeding production. So we could have a squeeze in the years ahead if we don’t get after increasing our supplies.”

David O’Reilly, Chevron Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive, CNN, June 17

“it’s supply and demand… We don’t have excess (production) capacity in the world anymore. That’s why you’re seeing the oil prices.”

Warren Buffet, CNBC, June 25

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“The consensus view is that oil above $100 a barrel is going to be with us for some time. So we have two choices. One, continue exporting our wealth overseas … and hope that American consumers can outbid the Chinese and Indians in the world oil market; or two, we can commit to blazing a new path, one that frees our country from the shackles of oil.”

Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., at June 11 congressional hearing

Has oil production peaked?

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3,500

3,000

Billion Kilowatthours

History Projections Electricity Demand

2,500

1,392

4,804

Coal

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1970 2020

Renewables

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860B, “Annual Electric Generator Report - Nonutility;” EIA, Annual Energy Review 1999, DOE/EIA-0384(99) (Washington, DC, July 2000); and Edison Electric Institute. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001.

Electricity Generation by Fuel1970-2020

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Lower 48 Natural Gas Wells Drilled1970-2020

25,000 Number of W ells

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

History Projections 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Sources: History: Consumption and Production: Energy Informa- tion Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA- 0130(2001/03) (Washington, DC, March 2000), Table 2. Successful Lower 48 Wells Drilled, EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA- 0035(2001/03) (Washington, DC, March 2001), Table 5.2. Projec- tions: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0383(2001) (Washington, DC, December 2000).

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Projected Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2020

Trillion Cubic Feet

12 History Projections

10 Lower 48 NA Conventional Onshore

Lower 48 NA Unconventional 8

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Lower 48 NA Offshore 4

Lower 48 AD 2

Alaska

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Note: Unconventional gas recovery consists principally of produc- tion from reservoirs with low permeability (tight sands) but also includes methane from coal seams and gas from shales.

Sources: History: Total production and Alaska: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 1998, DOE/EIA-0131(98) (Washington, DC, October 1999). Offshore, associated-dissolved, and nonassociated: EIA, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liq- uids Reserves, DOE/EIA-0216(90-98). Unconventional: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. 1999 and Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001. 20

“Hydraulic Fracturing for Enhanced Natural Gas Production”

http://www.halliburton.com/public/projects/pubsdata/hydraulic_fracturing/fracturing_101.html#

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Natural Gas Consumption by Sector1990-2020

Trillion Cubic Feet 12

History Projections

10 Industrial

8 Electricity Generation

6

Residential

4

Com m ercial

2

Natural Gas Vehicles 0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Sources: History: Electric Utilities: Energy Information Administra- tion (EIA), Electric Power Annual 1999, Vol. 1, DOE/EIA-0348(99)/1 (Washington, DC, August 2000). Nonutilities: EIA, Form EIA-867, “Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report, 1998.” Other: EIA, State Energy Data Report 1997, DOE/EIA-0214(97) (Washington, DC, Sep- tember 2000). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001.

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Environmental Consequences of Fossil Fuel Use

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Global Carbon Cycle (Billion Metric Tons CO2)

About ½ of the anthropogenic flux accumulates in the atmosphere24

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CO2 Capture and Storage

● Separate CO2 from flue gas in power generation

● Change combustion process to avoid this separation

● Storage- how long can we store CO2 and how effectively

● Does not address emissions from transportation and some modes of heating

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Ultimately Need a Sustainable Energy Supply

• Renewable Energy– Biofuels– Biomass– Geothermal– Hydro Power– Solar Power– Tidal Power– Wave Power– Wind Power– Nuclear (?)

• Lower Usage– Conservation– Efficiency

• Automotive• Power generation• Process• Lighting

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