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© Dirección de Tecnología Repsol YPF S.A. July 2011
Fossil Fuels: present situation and future developments in a Carbon Constrained WorldJavier ArízteguiSenior Technologist
Basque Centre for Climate ChangeSummer School 2011
Adaptation to Climate Change: An essential part of Climate Change PolicyJuly 2011
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
• Future developments
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
• Future developments
Future challenges for energy
• Growing demand to provide social and economical welfare around the world• Growth driven by non-OECD countries• Transport sector dominated by oil products in the near future
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Energy demand forecast
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Source : BP (2011) BP Energy Outlook 2030
Future challenges for energy
• Growing demand to provide social and economical welfare around the world• Growth driven by non-OECD countries• Transport sector dominated by oil products in the near future
• Crude oil in difficult places
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Area Reserves (billions of barrels)
Share(%)
Middle East(Saudi Arabia)
752.5(264.5)
54.4(19.1)
Former USSR 125.4 9.1
Europe 14.2 1.0
Asia-Pacific 45.2 3.3
Africa 132.1 9.5
N America 74.3 5.4
S & C America 239.4 17.3
TOTAL 1383.2 100.0
Countries belonging to OPEC: 76.1%
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011
Crude oil reserves at end of 2010
54.4 %
Future challenges for energy
• Growing demand to provide social and economical welfare around the world• Growth driven by non-OECD countries• Transport sector dominated by oil products in the near future
• Crude oil in difficult places
• Growing concerns about climate change require a decarbonisation of the energy supply• Transport sector major contributor to GHG emissions• Transport sector increasing its contribution and its share of
GHG emission in UE
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GHG: well to wheels balance
Final energy
Well-to-Tank WtT
Primary energy
Tank-to-Wheels TtW
Well-to-Wheels WtW
Energy source Transformation Transport & distribution
Application
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GHG: emissions from transport in the UE
• In the European Union (UE-15) during 2009 (TtW data):• Transport responsible for 21 % of GHG emissions (26 % Spain)• 93 % of those emissions come from road transport (91 % Spain)
• Transport is the only sector with emissions increasing in the UESource: EEA (2011) - Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2009 and inventory report 2011
Source: EEA (2009) - Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2009
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
• Future developments
Objectives
• Supply the growing demand of energy for transport in a secure and affordable way• Diversify sources of energy • Diversify origins of those sources
• Reduce the carbon footprint of energy for transport• Taking into account well to wheels analyses
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
• Future developments
• Conclusions
Boundary conditions
• Energy demand for transport is sizeable• In Spain, transport accounts for 38.8 % of final energy demand
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Source: MITYC (2010). La energía en España 2009
33.3 %
38.8 %
28.0%
IndustryTransportOthers
Boundary conditions
• Energy demand for transport is sizeable• In Spain, transport accounts for 38.8 % of final energy demand
• Backwards compatibility with existing fleet of vehicles• In Spain, 29.8 million vehicles at end of 2009
16© Dirección de Tecnología Repsol YPF S.A. July 2011Source: DGT (2010). Anuario estadístico general 2009
Boundary conditions
• Energy demand for transport is sizeable• In Spain, transport accounts for 38.8 % of final energy demand
• Backwards compatibility with existing fleet of vehicles• In Spain, 29.8 million vehicles at end of 2009
• Limits for regulated emissions of vehicles must be fulfilled
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(mg/
km)
Year of first homologation
Homologation limits for M1 Diesel vehicles
CO (mg/km) HC+NOx (mg/km) NOx (mg/km) PM (mg/km)
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1992 1996 2000 2005 2009 2014
HC
, NO
x &
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in N
EDC
(mg/
km)
CO
& H
C+N
Ox
in N
EDC
(mg/
km)
Year of first homologation
Homologation limits for M1 Otto vehicles
CO (mg/km) HC+NOx (mg/km) HC (mg/km) NOx (mg/km) PM (mg/km)
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Boundary conditions
• Energy demand for transport is sizeable• In Spain, transport accounts for 38.8 % of final energy demand
• Backwards compatibility with existing fleet of vehicles• In Spain, 29.8 million vehicles at end of 2009
• Limits for regulated emissions of vehicles must be fulfilled
• Regulation to introduce biofuels in Europe (and Spain)• In the UE, mandatory objective of 10 %e/e of biofuels in 2020• In Spain, stringent requirements for the period 2011-2013
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• Real Decreto 1738/2010 sets mandatory objectives globallyand per fuel
• Real Decreto 459/2011 (1st April) increases the objectives setby RD 1738/2010
2011 2012 2013
Global biofuel objective 5.9 % 6.0 % 6.1 %
Biofuel objective in diesel fuel 3.9 % 4.1 % 4.1 %
Biofuel objective in gasoline 3.9 % 4.1 % 4.1 %
19
2011 2012 2013
Global biofuel objective 6.2 % 6.5 % 6.5 %
Biofuel objective in diesel fuel 6.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 %
Biofuel objective in gasoline 3.9 % 4.1 % 4.1 %
Biofuels in Spain
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
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• Fuels obtained from vegetables o animals (renewable)• Biofuels at full marketing scale
• Biodiesel (Fatty acid methyl ester, FAME) • Bioethanol (Ethyl Alcohol from carbohydrates)
• Biofuels at small marketing scale• Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
• Biofuels at R&D scale• Synthetic renewable diesel (BtL, Sunfuel)• Lignocellulosic bioethanol
• CO2 production during use largely neutralised by CO2 capture due to photosynthesis processes
• Miscible with conventional fuels (gasoline or diesel)
Biofuels characteristics
• Transesterification of fatty acids
* FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Esters)** FAEE (Fatty Acid Ethyl Esters)
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•Vegetable oils•New•Recycled
•Animal fats•Fish oils•Algae oils
Alcohol
Feedstock
•Methanol•Ethanol
Transesterificationprocess
Fatty acid esters•Methyl (FAME*)•Ethyl (FAEE**)
Glycerine
Biodiesel production
• Fermentation of biomass with high contents of sugar or starch
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•Grape•Beetroot•Sugar cane
Starch way
Sugar way
•Cereals•Tubers
Fermentationand distillation Bioethanol
Conversionpretreatment
Bioethanol production
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Well to wheels analysis
neutral
Source: JEC (2008). Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context
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HVO production
• Hydrogenation of oils in dedicated units or in conventional refinery units (HDS, FCC)
•Vegetable oils•New•Recycled
•Animal fats•Fish oils•Algae oils
Hydrogen
Feedstock
Hydrogenationprocess
Diesel
Gas (propane)
Heat
Gasoline
Water
IsomerizationKerosene
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Well to wheels analysis
neutral
Source: JEC (2008). Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context
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Lignocellulosic biofuels
• The use of lignocellulosic biomass to produce synthetic diesel or ethanol is still at R&D or demonstration stage
• Lignocellulosic biomass enables a better utilization of available biomass (3 times better than conventional biofuels)
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Feedstock• Straw• Forest residues• Sawmill residues• Farming residues
BtL(Sunfuel)
Lignocellulosic biofuels production
Synthesis gas
Feedstock• Straw• Forest residues• Black liquor
BioethanolConversion pretreatment Hydrolisis Fermentation
GasificationOxygen or
steam reforming
Upgrading(Hydrocracking)
Fischer-Tropschprocess
• BtL (biomass to liquid): Renewable synthetic diesel
• Lignocellulosic ethanol
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Well to wheels analysis
neutral
Source: JEC (2008). Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
• Future developments
• Admixtures of conventional fuels with bioethanol and FAME• Low concentration of biofuels for backwards compatibility
• Today 7 %v/v of FAME in diesel and 5 %v/v of bioethanol in gasoline• Due to massive demand, it amounts to massive volumes of biofuels
• Necessary agreement of all stakeholders• Authorities, car manufacturers and oil suppliers• Negotiations at CEN level
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Mainstream fuels
Candidates:• Bioethanol E85
• Low cost adaptation from a conventional Otto engine (~200 €)• Suitable technology for the standard customer (flexi-fuel vehicle)• Poorer mileage than gasoline
• Biodiesel B30• Reluctance from car manufacturers to widespread use• Some manufactures admit it for captive fleets
(taxis, public fleets, etc)• More frequent vehicle maintenance requested
• HVO or BtL neat or in high concentrations• No concerns about tolerance by the vehicle• Probably limited deployment due to product cost
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Niche markets: high concentration biofuels
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Objectives
• Boundary conditions
• Biofuels
• What is the oil sector doing?
• Mainstream fuels
• Energies for niche markets
• Future developments
Co-processing in hydrotreatment units
• Demo plant research:• Use of non edible or economical oils:
• Non-used vegetable oils (critical properties: acidity, metals and free fatty acids)
• Recycled frying oils or fats
• Process studies to modify industrial units in order to co-process oils
• Exploratory research: • More selective catalysts• Catalysts to minimize hydrogen consumption
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Rationale:• Elimination of regulated pollutants• Diversification (security of energy supply)• GHG emissions (heavily dependant on electricity origin)
Approaches:• Hydrogen Fuel Cell
• Several technical barriers still to overcome• Electric vehicles
• One technical barrier: the battery Promising improvements in Li-ion batteries
• Interest from the electric sector (utility companies)• In principle, mutually exclusive alternatives
Massive deployment (if it comes) beyond 2020• Demonstration projects within the period 2009-2020
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Electric propulsion