fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference...
TRANSCRIPT
Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings
Conference Call
February 3, 2016
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this presentation is forward‐looking information based on current expectations and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward‐looking information includes, among other things,
statements concerning projected costs and schedules for the completion and start-up of ongoing construction projects, earnings per share guidance, expected economic development, expected credit metrics,
expected regulatory approval timing for the acquisition of AGL Resources Inc., and projected financing plans. Southern Company cautions that there are certain factors that can cause actual results to differ materially
from the forward‐looking information that has been provided. The reader is cautioned not to put undue reliance on this forward‐looking information, which is not a guarantee of future performance and is subject to a
number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Southern Company; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such suggested results will be realized. The following factors, in
addition to those discussed in Southern Company’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and subsequent securities filings, could cause actual results to differ materially from
management expectations as suggested by such forward‐looking information: the impact of recent and future federal and state regulatory changes, including legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation
and restructuring of the electric utility industry, environmental laws including regulation of water, coal combustion residuals, and emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, soot, particulate matter, hazardous air
pollutants, including mercury, and other substances, and also changes in tax and other laws and regulations to which Southern Company and its subsidiaries are subject, as well as changes in application of existing
laws and regulations; current and future litigation, regulatory investigations, proceedings, or inquiries, including Federal Energy Regulatory Commission matters and Internal Revenue Service and state tax audits; the
effects, extent, and timing of the entry of additional competition in the markets in which Southern Company's subsidiaries operate; variations in demand for electricity, including those relating to weather, the general
economy and recovery from the last recession, population and business growth (and declines), the effects of energy conservation and efficiency measures, including from the development and deployment of
alternative energy sources such as self-generation and distributed generation technologies, and any potential economic impacts resulting from federal fiscal decisions; available sources and costs of fuels; effects of
inflation; the ability to control costs and avoid cost overruns during the development and construction of facilities, which include the development and construction of generating facilities with designs that have not been
finalized or previously constructed, including changes in labor costs and productivity, adverse weather conditions, shortages and inconsistent quality of equipment, materials, and labor, contractor or supplier delay,
non-performance under construction or other agreements, operational readiness, including specialized operator training and required site safety programs, unforeseen engineering or design problems, start-up
activities (including major equipment failure and system integration), and/or operational performance (including additional costs to satisfy any operational parameters ultimately adopted by any Public Service
Commission (“PSC”)); the ability to construct facilities in accordance with the requirements of permits and licenses, to satisfy any environmental performance standards and the requirements of tax credits and other
incentives, and to integrate facilities into the Southern Company system upon completion of construction; investment performance of Southern Company's employee and retiree benefit plans and the Southern
Company system's nuclear decommissioning trust funds; advances in technology; state and federal rate regulations and the impact of pending and future rate cases and negotiations, including rate actions relating to
fuel and other cost recovery mechanisms; legal proceedings and regulatory approvals and actions related to Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4, including Georgia PSC approvals and Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions
and related legal proceedings involving the commercial parties; actions related to cost recovery for the integrated coal gasification combined cycle facility under construction in Kemper County, Mississippi (“Kemper
IGCC”), including the ultimate impact of the 2015 decision of the Mississippi Supreme Court, the Mississippi PSC's December 2015 rate order, and related legal or regulatory proceedings, Mississippi PSC review of
the prudence of Kemper IGCC costs and approval of permanent rate recovery plans, actions relating to proposed securitization, satisfaction of requirements to utilize investment tax credits and grants, and the ultimate
impact of the termination of the proposed sale of an interest in the Kemper IGCC to South Mississippi Electric Power Association; the ability to successfully operate the electric utilities' generating, transmission, and
distribution facilities and the successful performance of necessary corporate functions; the inherent risks involved in operating and constructing nuclear generating facilities, including environmental, health, regulatory,
natural disaster, terrorism, and financial risks; the performance of projects undertaken by the non-utility businesses and the success of efforts to invest in and develop new opportunities; internal restructuring or other
restructuring options that may be pursued; potential business strategies, including acquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, which cannot be assured to be completed or beneficial to Southern Company or
its subsidiaries; the expected timing, likelihood, and benefits of completion of the proposed acquisition of AGL Resources, including the failure to receive, on a timely basis or otherwise, the required approvals by
government or regulatory agencies (including the terms of such approvals), the possibility that long-term financing for the acquisition may not be put in place prior to the closing, the risk that a condition to closing of the
acquisition or funding of the bridge financing may not be satisfied, the possibility that the anticipated benefits from the acquisition cannot be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected, the possibility that
costs related to the integration of Southern Company and AGL Resources will be greater than expected, the credit ratings of the combined company or its subsidiaries may be different from what the parties expect, the
ability to retain and hire key personnel and maintain relationships with customers, suppliers, or other business partners, the diversion of management time on acquisition-related issues, and the impact of legislative,
regulatory, and competitive changes; the ability of counterparties of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to make payments as and when due and to perform as required; the ability to obtain new short- and long-
term contracts with wholesale customers; the direct or indirect effect on the Southern Company system's business resulting from cyber intrusion or terrorist incidents and the threat of terrorist incidents; interest rate
fluctuations and financial market conditions and the results of financing efforts; changes in Southern Company's and any of its subsidiaries' credit ratings, including impacts on interest rates, access to capital markets,
and collateral requirements; the impacts of any sovereign financial issues, including impacts on interest rates, access to capital markets, impacts on currency exchange rates, counterparty performance, and the
economy in general, as well as potential impacts on the benefits of the U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantees; the ability of Southern Company's subsidiaries to obtain additional generating capacity at
competitive prices; catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, explosions, floods, hurricanes and other storms, droughts, pandemic health events such as influenzas, or other similar occurrences; the direct or
indirect effects on the Southern Company system's business resulting from incidents affecting the U.S. electric grid or operation of generating resources; and the effect of accounting pronouncements issued
periodically by standard-setting bodies. Southern Company expressly disclaims any obligation to update any forward‐looking information.
2
Vogtle Construction Site – January 2016
3
Vogtle 3&4 Construction Update
Recent Progress
Unit 3
Placed concrete in initial Shield Building panels (“Course 1”)
Placed Turbine Building Table Top concrete
Unit 4
Set Containment Vessel Ring 1
Cooling Tower installation to 50% vertical (300 ft)
Major Modules
Ongoing assembly of CA-03 (Unit 3), CA-05 (Unit 4), and
CA-01 (Unit 4)
Unit 4 – Ring 1 Set on Containment Vessel
4
Unit 3
Near Term
Unit 3 •Continue setting Shield Building panels (“Course 2”)
•Set Containment Vessel Ring 2
Unit 4 •Complete Cooling Tower
•Set up main step-up transformers
On the Horizon •Erect turbine generator (Unit 3)
•CA-20 assembly (Unit 4)
Permanent rates in place for in-service assets • Combined cycle operating reliably and efficiently
Expected in-service date for remainder of project in third quarter 2016 • Repairs and improvements to refractory lining
Working towards next set of milestones • Commissioning of Lignite Feed and Dryer Systems
• Gasifier refractory cure
• Fluidization of Train ‘B’
• First syngas
Kemper Project Update
5
Q4 2015
Reported Earnings Per Share $0.30 $2.60
Impact of increase in Kemper cost estimate $0.12 $0.25
MCAR settlement costs - $0.01
AGL Resources acquisition costs $0.02 $0.03
Earnings Per Share x-items $0.44 $2.89
6
2015 Earnings Results
FY 2014 FY 2015
$2.80
$2.89
+24¢
-7¢
-3¢
-4¢
Retail
Revenue
Impacts
Weather
Interest
Expense
Traditional
Operating
Companies +7¢
-5¢
-1¢
FY 2015 vs. FY 2014 Adjusted EPS Drivers
7
-4¢
Shares
+3¢
Retail
Sales
Non-Fuel
O&M
Note: Excludes 2015 & 2014 EPS impacts of -25¢ & -61¢, respectively, for Kemper IGCC impacts, 2015 EPS impact of -3¢ for AGL Resources acquisition cost, and
2015 EPS impact of -1¢ for the MCAR Insurance Settlement; GAAP EPS was $2.60 for 2015 vs. $2.19 for 2014
D&A +1¢
Southern
Power
+5¢
+1¢
-1¢
Income
Taxes
-1¢
+1¢
Parent &
Other
Wholesale
Operations
Taxes Other
Other
Operating
Revenues
Other
Income &
Deductions
Weather Normal Retail Sales Growth
8
Note: Weather Adjusted Retail Sales Growth also reflects adjustment of 2014 KWH sales consistent with Mississippi Power’s updated
methodology to estimate the unbilled revenue allocation among customer classes implemented in the first quarter 2015
Residential Commercial
Industrial
Total
Retail Sales
Residential Commercial Industrial Total
Retail Sales
0.4%
0.9%
-0.3%
0.3%
1.2%
1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
Expected 2016 Sales Growth 2015 vs 2014
• Strong residential customer growth continued in 2015 (+37K customers year-over-year)
• Every quarter of 2015 reflected year-over-year commercial growth (first time post-recession)
• Housing-related industries and automotive production are the bright spots for industrial
• Economic development pipeline remains robust, with recent announcements and prospects spanning
automotive, aerospace, chemicals, and fabricated and primary metals sectors
Total
$billions 2016 2017 2018 '16-'18
New Generation 1.2 0.7 0.4 2.3
Environmental 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.8
Generation Maintenance 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.5
Transmission 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.0
Distribution 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.5
Nuclear Fuel 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8
Other 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1
Traditional OpCo Total 4.9 4.1 3.9 13.0
Southern Power Base 1.6 0.1 0.1 1.9
Southern Power Placeholders 0.8 0.9 1.4 3.1
Total 7.3 5.2 5.5 17.9 $ $ $ $
2016 – 2018 CapEx Forecast – by Function
9
(1) Does not include any potential costs for compliance with EPA clean power plan regulations. Also excludes costs related to compliance with coal combustion residuals regulations accounted for as
asset retirement obligations. (2) Includes amounts for which Mississippi Power will not seek recovery above the $2.88 billion Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions of ~$450 million in 2016. (3) Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2015 10-K.
(1)
(2)
(3)
Total
$billions 2016 2017 2018 '16-'18
Alabama Power 1.3 1.3 1.3 3.9
Georgia Power 2.5 2.4 2.1 7.0
Gulf Power 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6
Mississippi Power 0.8 0.2 0.3 1.3
Other Subsidiaries 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
Traditional OpCo Total 4.9 4.1 3.9 13.0
Southern Power Base 1.6 0.1 0.1 1.9
Southern Power Placeholders 0.8 0.9 1.4 3.1
Total 7.3 5.2 5.5 17.9
2016 – 2018 CapEx Forecast – by Company
$ $ $ $
10
Does not include any potential costs for compliance with EPA clean power plan regulations. Also excludes costs related to compliance with coal combustion residuals regulations accounted for as
asset retirement obligations.
Includes amounts for which Mississippi Power will not seek recovery above the $2.88 billion Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions of ~$450 million in 2016.
Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2015 10-K.
Financing Plan Summary
• Debt issuance for AGL Resources acquisition ($8B) expected
to be completed prior to closing
• Still expect to have issued at least $1B of equity by closing,
with $1.2B in calendar year 2016
• Remainder of 2016 to 2018 financing plan is heavily
influenced by extension of bonus depreciation
– Improved credit metrics 2016-2018
– No equity requirements beyond 2016
– Less exposure to capital markets for traditional operating companies
• Remain committed to a high degree of financial integrity and
targeting a credit profile supportive of current ratings
11
2016 Guidance
$2.76
$2.88
$2.84
$3.00
$2.92
$2.86
2015
-6¢
-4¢
Impact of shares to fund
AGL Resources transaction
Estimated impact of
bonus depreciation
$2.76
$2.88
$2.82 $2.82
2015 Guidance 2016 Guidance
2016
12
13
2016
$2.76
$2.88
2016 & Long-Term EPS Guidance
• 2016 Guidance is standalone (excludes AGL Resources in 2016)
• Long-term growth rate assumes AGL Resources acquisition
closes in the second half of 2016
• All years exclude cost to achieve the AGL Resources merger
Q1 2016 Estimate: $0.53 per share
Appendix
2015 Southern Power Project Announcements
15
2015 Facility Location Type Owned MW Contract Length Expected COD
1st Quarter
Decatur – Parkway GA Solar 84 25-yr 2015
Decatur – County GA Solar 20 20-yr 2015
Kay OK Wind 299 20-yr 2015
2nd Quarter
Lost Hills-Blackwell CA Solar 18 29-yr 2015
North Star CA Solar 31 20-yr 2015
Pawpaw GA Solar 30 30-yr 2016
Butler Solar Farm (Strata)
GA Solar 20 20-yr 2016
Butler Solar Facility (Community)
GA Solar 104 30-yr 2016
3rd Quarter
Desert Stateline CA Solar 153 20-yr 2016
Tranquillity CA Solar 105 18-yr 2016
Grant1 OK Wind 152 20-yr 2016
4th Quarter
Morelos del Sol CA Solar 14 20-yr 2015
Roserock TX Solar 82 20-yr 2016
Garland CA Solar 105 16-yr2 2016
In 2015, Southern Power contracted for over 1,000 MW of renewables at an average contract length of ~22 years
466 MW COD in 2015
751 MW expected COD in 2016
1,217 MW Total
1 Acquisition subject to closing. 2 Weighted average contract length of two power purchase agreements.
2017 2018 2016 - 2018
Issued Remaining Total Projected Projected Total
Projected Debt Issuances
Georgia Power DOE Loan - 450 450 350 275 1,075
Mississippi Power Bank Debt(1)
- 1,200 1,200 - - 1,200
Mississippi Power Securitization - - - 1,000 - 1,000
Capital Markets
Alabama Power 400 - 400 600 300 1,300
Georgia Power - 600 600 700 1,000 2,300
Gulf Power - 150 150 100 - 250
Mississippi Power - - - 1,000 250 1,250
Southern Power(2)
- 1,200 1,200 500 500 2,200
Parent(3)
- 8,000 8,000 - 750 8,750
Total Capital Markets 400 9,950 10,350 2,900 2,800 16,050
Total Debt Issuances 400 11,600 12,000 4,250 3,075 19,325
Common Equity Needs - 1,200 1,200 - - 1,200
2016
2016 – 2018 Projected Financing Plan $ in millions
16
(1) Includes the refinancing of $900 million of existing bank debt in 2016 (2) Includes $600 million, $250 million, and $500 million in financing associated with placeholder projects in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively (3) Includes $400 million in financing associated with Southern Power placeholder projects in 2018
Senior Unsecured (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch)
Southern Company Baa1/BBB+/A
(N/N/N*)
Alabama Power A1/A-/A+ (S/N/S)
Georgia Power A3/A-/A+ (S/N/S)
Gulf Power A2/A-/A (S/N/S)
Mississippi Power Baa3/BBB+/A-
(N/N/N)
Southern Power Baa1/BBB+/BBB+
(S/N/S)
Note: A securities rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to revision or withdrawal at any time.
The graphic above represents a simplified diagram highlighting major SO issuing entities.
S – Stable outlook, N – Negative Outlook, N* - Negative Watch 17
Southern Company and Subsidiary Ratings
2016** 2017 2018 2019 2020
Long-term Debt Maturity Schedule $ in millions - as of 12/31/15
18
(1) Excludes $475 million of short term bank loans maturing in 2016 (2) $576 million of Mississippi Power intercompany loans, maturing in 2017, are eliminated at the consolidated level
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SO Consolidated Long-Term
Debt Maturities 2016-2020
$9,214
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Alabama Power 200 561 - 200 250
Georgia Power 704 450 750 500 37
Gulf Power 110 85 - - 175
Mississippi Power(1) 725 611 - 125 7
Southern Power 400 500 350 - 300
Parent 500 800 500 350 600
SO Consolidated(2) 2,639 2,431 1,600 1,175 1,369
Unused Credit Lines $ 1,340 $ 1,732 $ 275 $ 195 $ 2,250 $ 566 $ 70 $ 6,428
Cash(3)
156 95 69 97 46 832 99 1,395
Total 1,496 1,827 344 292 2,296 1,398 169 7,823
Less: Outstanding CP - 158 142 - 388 - 52 740
Less: PCBs Floaters(4)
810 872 82 40 - - - 1,805
Net Available Liquidity $ 686 $ 797 $ 120 $ 252 $ 1,908 $ 1,398 $ 117 $ 5,278
Other(2)
SO ConsolidatedAlabama Power Georgia Power Gulf Power Mississippi Power Parent(1)
Southern Power
• Extended the maturity of syndicated credit facilities from 2018 to 2020 with total available credit of $4.4B under these facilities
• Concurrent with the syndication of the AGL Resources bridge facility, added an additional $1B credit facility at the parent level
which matures in 2018
Southern Company Liquidity and Credit $ in millions - as of 12/31/15
19
(1) Does not include $8.1B AGL Resources acquisition bridge facility (2) Other includes balance amounts from non-SEC reporting subsidiaries including SEGCO, Southern Nuclear, SouthernLINC and others (3) Includes Cash and Cash Equivalents; subject to revision prior to filing 2015 Southern Company 10-K (4) PCB Floaters include all variable rate pollution control revenue bonds outstanding
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consolidated Credit Facilities Expirations(1)
410$ 30$ 1,665$ -$ 4,400$
Georgia • Filed merger approval application on December 18, 2015
• Evidentiary hearings scheduled for March 15, April 14 and May 3, 2016 2nd Quarter
Illinois • Filed merger approval application on October 8, 2015
• Evidentiary hearings scheduled for April 20 – April 21, 2016 3rd Quarter
Maryland • Filed merger approval application on November 3, 2015
• Evidentiary hearings scheduled for March 1-2, 2016 2nd Quarter
New Jersey • Filed merger approval application on October 16, 2015
• Evidentiary hearings scheduled for May 17 – May 20, 2016 3rd Quarter
Virginia • Filed merger approval application on October 26, 2015 1st Quarter
California • Filed merger approval application on November 9, 2015 1st Quarter
Status of Major State Filings for AGL Resources Merger
20
The waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act expired on December 4, 2015
Generation Portfolio Diversity
21
Capacity Factors Q4 FY
2014 2015 2014 2015
Coal - PRB 68% 50% 71% 61%
Coal - Non-PRB 21% 14% 38% 32%
Gas - Combined Cycle 73% 70% 66% 72%
Energy Mix Q4 FY
2014 2015 2014 2015
Natural Gas 49% 52% 40% 47%
Coal 31% 23% 40% 33%
Nuclear 16% 19% 16% 16%
Hydro/Other 4% 6% 4% 4%