fourth quarter 2015 first - valuewalk · – our businesses have greater staying power and superior...

11
FPA International Value Fund FPIVX Fourth Quarter 2015 Webcast Presentation January 28, 2016 Presented by the International Value Team: Pierre Py Portfolio Manager Jason Dempsey Analyst First Pacific Advisors, LLC

Upload: others

Post on 19-Jun-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

FPA International Value Fund FPIVX

Fourth Quarter 2015

Webcast Presentation

January 28, 2016

Presented by the International Value Team:

Pierre Py Portfolio Manager

Jason Dempsey Analyst First

Pacific A

dvisors,

LLC

Page 2: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

Key fund attributes

1

Absolute value – Seek genuine bargains and flexibility to hold cash.

Broad universe and benchmark agnostic – Invest across market caps, sectors, geographies.

Bottom-up – Select and value companies based on fundamentals. Look for high quality.

Downside focused – Avoid low quality and high leverage. Buy at a significant discount to fair value.

Research-based – Portfolio is output of research. Discounts dictate portfolio weightings.

Concentrated – Focus on best ideas - typically 25-35 holdings. Non-diversified investment vehicle.

Long-term, often contrarian approach – 20% expected average turnover. Time for discount to unwind dictates holding period.

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 3: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

Performance as of December 31, 2015

2

Highlights:

■ A mad end of the year. ~500bps lost in quarter, mostly in last 2 weeks. 153bps of incremental alpha on first day of trading in 2016.

■ Cash exposure decreased from about 30% at 09/30/15 to 19% at 12/31/2015.

– Underweight cash. Would have continued to re-balance towards low to mid 20%s after the year end.

– Continues to come down as weighted average discount to intrinsic value increases, and new opportunities come up.

■ Since inception, cash exposure has averaged close to 35%. Fluctuated along with opportunity set from low teens to >40%.

Perspectives:

■ Short-term volatility always possible. Not very meaningful. Encourage shareholders to evaluate returns over multi-year period.

■ Monetized fully valued holdings and redeployed capital towards genuine bargains. Continued short-term pressure as a result.

■ Headlines market numbers skewed by:

– Currencies deterioration relative to the US dollar.

– High dispersion: specific areas of the market have experienced massive price dislocation.

* Inception December 1, 2011. Annualized. Calculated using Morningstar Direct.

Net expense ratio: 1.13%. A redemption fee of 2% will be imposed on redemptions within 90 days. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown.

This data represents past performance and investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so

that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost. Current month-end performance data may

be obtained via http://www.fpafunds.com/internationalvalue or by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372. The MSCI ACWI ex US Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging market countries excluding the United States.

QTD 1 Year 3 Year 2014 2013 2012 2011* Inception*

FPA International Value -2.20 -6.34 0.12 -9.19 18.00 24.04 1.10 5.79 MSCI ACWI Ex US (Net) 3.24 -5.66 1.50 -3.87 15.29 16.83 -1.12 4.73

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 4: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

FPA International Value (NAV) / MSCI ACWI Ex US: Growth of $10,000

3

The chart illustrates the performance of a hypothetical $10,000 investment made in the fund since inception. Figures include reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, but do not reflect the effect of any applicable redemption fees, which would lower these figures. An investor cannot invest in an index. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of the fund. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Performance chart as of December 31, 2015

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

$15,000

$16,000

FPIVX

$12,586

MSCI ACWI Ex US

$12,079

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 5: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

FPA International Value MSCI ACWI Ex US 12 - Month Forward P/E 14.6x 14.7x Price/Book 1.7x 1.6x Return on Equity 15.2% 15.1% Debt/Equity 0.5x 0.6x Median Market Cap (billions) $3.9 $6.8

■ 14.6x Forward P/E: High quality companies that trade at attractive valuations.

– Divergence in trend with the Index, despite continued positive relative standing.

– Many holdings are cyclical businesses generating highly depressed earnings. Much lower P/E on normalized basis.

– Specific sectors like Financials drive index P/E down. We believe our names are much cheaper than the market.

– Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies.

Weighted average discount to estimated intrinsic value increased to close to 40%, the highest since inception.

■ 15.2.% ROE: Strong fundamentals drive industry-leading margins, high cash flows, and attractive returns. Good managers allocate capital in value creative manner.

– Particularly good in light of cyclical downturn or significant changes many of our companies are going through.

■ 0.5x Debt to Equity: Financially robust companies positioned to become stronger through difficult times.

Portfolio metrics as of December 31, 2015

4

Source: Mellon, Bloomberg and FPA data. 12-Month Forward P/E is calculated using harmonic averaging, which helps avoid extreme results that may occur due to small relative numbers. Price/Book ratio is the market price of a stock divided by the book value per share. Return on Equity measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. Debt to Equity is the measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its total debt by stockholders' equity. First

Pacific A

dvisors,

LLC

Page 6: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

■ Worst performer was Spotless: – Added to the portfolio following sharp correction of nearly

50% in share price.

– Based in Australia. Leading provider of food catering, facility management, and laundry services.

– Back to being listed company in 2014, after less than two years of private equity ownership. Dramatic turnaround and improvement in the business during the period.

– New management in August including former KPMG partner as CEO. Group warned on write-downs and one-offs, weaker market conditions, and integration challenges of new acquisitions. More cautious on outlook.

– Stock price fell from A$2.2 to below $1. General history of service businesses re-rating hard following change in ownership/management. Recent local precedents.

Expect further short-term challenges and normalization in operating performance. High quality business nonetheless at very depressed valuation in weak currency.

■ Best disclosed performer was Hypermarcas: – Added to portfolio in third quarter 2014. Reduced in

second quarter 2015. Raised again in third quarter 2015.

– Based in Brazil. Second largest consumer goods, third largest pharmaceutical company in country.

– Business had suffered from weakness in economy and currency headwinds. Cash flow generation had lagged and balance sheet had not improved as expected.

– Previously under review on signs departing from stated strategy by chasing volumes at expense of margins, rather than focusing on core activities, extracting efficiency gains, and generating cash flow to reduce debt.

– Recently announced sale of beauty products business to Coty for R$3.8bn. Compelling valuation. Capitalize on tax credits. Improves positioning and free company of debt.

Deal reinforced our conviction in this management team, and in the group’s attractive prospects. Remain interested in

being invested with the appropriate margin of safety.

Key performers

5

9/30/15 through 12/31/15 Performance (%)

Best performers

Hypermarcas 42.15SAP 23.51Brambles LTD 23.46Adidas 22.10Ansell LTD 18.79

Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as recommendations by the Fund, its Advisor or Distributor. Undisclosed holdings not included in key performers. As of 12/31/15, Hypermarcas represented 0.83%, SAP 0.82%, Brambles 0.54%,

Adidas 0.52%, Ansell 2.70%, Spotless 3.50%, Countrywide 4.59%, LSL 5.47%, Prada 4.75%, and Fenner represented 7.86% of FPIVX.

9/30/15 through 12/31/15 Performance (%)

Worst performers

Spotless -47.79Countrywide -22.53LSL -18.98Prada -18.85Fenner -15.48

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 7: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

Portfolio as of December 31, 2015

6

* Excludes undisclosed holdings. Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as recommendations by the Fund, its Advisor or Distributor. ** Exposure defined as percentage of free cash flow denominated in the currency applied to invested capital.

Overview: ■ 29 disclosed holdings. Top 10 approximately 50%

of assets. Top 5 close to 30%. Overweight at year end.

■ Weighted average market cap of close to $13bn (ca. $400m to >$100bn). Median around $4bn.

■ Size, geography, and sector agnostic. Geographic Analysis: ■ Mostly Europe. No exposure to Japan. Continued

increase in exposure towards challenged geographies, including developing markets.

■ Domicile not very relevant. Close to 60% of free cash flows generated outside Europe.

■ More than 55% of EUR and close to 30% of GBP exposure** hedged defensively.

Sector Analysis: ■ Somewhat misleading (financials, healthcare,

energy). No banks. Geared towards Industrials. Opportunities in cyclical and commodity-related.

■ Biased towards cash generative and capital light businesses: services, consumer goods. IT exposure primarily with ERP software providers.

■ Sector agnostic. Where value opportunities are.

Geographic allocation* (% of assets invested):

Sector allocation* (% of assets invested):

1.0%

3.5%

3.9%

7.7%

8.3%

11.1%

13.2%

51.3%

Materials

Health Care

Consumer Staples

Energy

Consumer Discretionary

Information Technology

Financials

Industrials

Europe 73.3%

Emerging Markets

5.5%

Pacific Basin 15.4%

Other 5.9%

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 8: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

■ Based in Germany. Global leader in ERP (enterprise resource planning) and Business Intelligence and Analytics software. Strong presence in both Europe and the US.

■ Percentage of recurring revenues is high (about 50%):

• ERP software capture and organize all financial and operation data. As such, it is key to doing business for most companies.

• On-premise solutions have costly, lengthy installation requirements and are embedded with operations. Churn rate for support and subscription revenues is negligible as a result.

■ Profitability is attractive (gross margin over 70%, operating margin close to 30%) as the value of the service is high, and the business eminently scalable.

■ Business prospects are attractive as SAP moves to the cloud and adds more products to its portfolio:

• With cloud subscription revenue growing above 25% p.a., while software license are also up, SAP is exposed to favorable long-term demand driven by corporate productivity requirements.

• S/4 HANA suite is a bundle of on-premise or cloud-formatted software running off the internally-developed HANA in-memory database. Database is effectively a new market for SAP.

■ Returns in the teens, even after sizeable acquisitions and a large goodwill (due to the asset light nature of the acquired businesses). Operating returns are in triple digits. With SAP well ahead in its move towards the cloud, and its product development efforts, returns are expected to rise going forward.

■ Solid management with deep industry experience. Founder is an active Chairman of the Board, with CEO particularly focused on strategy and sales. Courageous and intelligent re-positioning of the company, given the fundamental changes in technology over past five years.

■ Net Debt/EBITDA below 1.0x. High margins and limited tangible reinvestment needs lead to healthy free cash flow generation.

■ At time of purchase, SAP traded at about 13x forward earnings, high single digit free cash flow yields, and around 10x normalized EBITA. It remains a compelling investment for the Strategy.

Case study: SAP (SAP GY)

7

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 9: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

We are long-term value investors with a focus on international equities. We look for well-run, financially strong, high-

quality businesses that can be purchased at a significant discount to their intrinsic values.

Investment credo

8

Investment

Candidate:

Continued value creation over time

Discount to

estimated intrinsic

value

Buy Investment Decision

Sell Investment Decision

Intrinsic value line.

Discount to intrinsic value line.

*Chart is a hypothetical example to show our Investment Philosophy and is not an actual holding in the fund.

Price

Time

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 10: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

Question & Answer

First Pacifi

c Advis

ors, LLC

Page 11: Fourth Quarter 2015 First - ValueWalk · – Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams than many other listed companies. Weighted average discount to

Disclosure

10

These slides are intended as supplemental material to the 4th Quarter 2015 FPA International Value audio presentation that is posted on our website fpafunds.com. We do want to make sure you understand that the views expressed on these slides and in the accompanying audio presentation are as of today, January 28, 2016, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These views may differ from other portfolio managers and analysts of the firm as a whole, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Any mention of individual securities or sectors should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell such securities, and any information provided is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. The information provided does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation with respect to any securities, products or services discussed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. This data represents past

performance and investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be

worth more or less than its original cost. Current month-end performance data may be obtained by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.

You should consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before you invest. The

Prospectus details the Fund's objective and policies, charges, and other matters of interest to the prospective investor. Please

read this Prospectus carefully before investing. The Prospectus may be obtained by visiting the fund literature tab on this website,

by email at [email protected], toll-free by calling 1-800-982-4372 or by contacting the Fund in writing.

Investments in mutual funds carry risks and investors may lose principal value. Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The Fund may purchase foreign securities, including American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and other depository receipts, which are subject to interest rate, currency exchange rate, economic and political risks. Foreign investments, especially those of companies in emerging markets, can be riskier, less liquid, harder to value, and more volatile than investments in the United States. Adverse political and economic developments or changes in the value of foreign currency can make it more difficult for the Fund to value the securities. Differences in tax and accounting standards, difficulties in obtaining information about foreign companies, restrictions on receiving investment proceeds from a foreign country, confiscatory foreign tax laws, and potential difficulties in enforcing contractual obligations, can all add to the risk and volatility of foreign investments. Small and mid cap stocks involve greater risks and they can fluctuate in price more than larger company stocks. The Fund is non-diversified and may hold fewer securities than a diversified fund because it is permitted to invest a greater percentage of its assets in a smaller number of securities. Holding fewer securities increases the risk that the value of the Fund could go down because of the poor performance of a single investment. Performance returns for the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index assume dividends were reinvested for the entire period. Returns for periods greater than one year are compounded average annual rates of return. One cannot invest directly in an index. Statistics have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The FPA Funds are distributed by UMB Distribution Services, LLC The portfolio holdings as the most recent quarter end may be obtained by clicking here. First

Pacific A

dvisors,

LLC