fourth quarter presentation feb 2021
TRANSCRIPT
Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021
2
MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATIONREFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGECOMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDESTATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYINGASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.
FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACTOF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS“BELIEVE,” “ANTICIPATE,” “INTENDS,” “ESTIMATE,” “FORECAST,” “PROJECT,” “PLAN,” “POTENTIAL,” “MAY,” “SHOULD,” “EXPECT” “PENDING”AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, INTURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATINGTRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE’S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINEBELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TOSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE’SCONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS ORPROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NODUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES INEXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE’S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSEDIN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES,GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THETANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OILCONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE’S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING ANDINSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE’S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITHCOVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US,CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITYFROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OFSHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANTFACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE’SBUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE’S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITEDTO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANYSECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.
Forward Looking Statements
Highlights
3
• Net loss of $9.2 million, or $0.05 per diluted share
• Adjusted net loss of $20.2 million, or $0.10 per diluted share
• Net income of $412.9 million or $2.09 per diluted share and adjusted net income of $421.6
million or $2.13 per diluted share for the full year 2020 – strongest yearly result since 2008
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 est. % done
$17,200 $22,600 78%
$9,800 $17,800 68%
$12,500 $12,200 65%
Reported earnings basis load to discharge
VLCC
LR2/Aframax
Suezmax
• Entered into three term loan facilities of up to $485.2 million;
o $351.5 million to refinance two existing term loan facilities maturing in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and
o up to $133.7 million to partially finance the 4 LR2 tankers under construction
• Extended the terms of the senior unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $275.0 million
by 12 months to May 2022
2020 2020 2020 2019
(in thousands of $ except per share data) Oct - Dec Jul - Sep Jan - Dec Jan - Dec
Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses) 100 633 177 815 868 089 561 841
Other operating gain 6 996 (1 313) 29 902 3 422
Contingent rental (income) expense 2 472 3 827 14 568 (2 607)
Ship operating expenses 50 456 52 775 183 063 157 007
Charter hire expenses 2 547 2 556 9 557 8 471
Administrative expenses 13 178 10 456 44 238 45 019
EBITDA 38 976 106 888 646 565 357 373
EBITDA adj (*) 31 144 108 374 632 407 359 473
Interest expense (15 197) (16 104) (72 160) (94 461)
Net income (9 187) 57 068 412 875 139 973
Net income adj (*) (20 224) 56 411 421 602 146 625
Diluted earnings per share (0,05) 0,29 2,09 0,78
Diluted earnings per share adjusted (0,10) 0,29 2,13 0,82
4
Note: Diluted earnings per share is based on 197,692 and 197,796
weighted average shares (in thousands) outstanding for Q4 2020
and Q3 2020, respectively
*See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP
figures
Adjustment items for Q4 2020:
Income Statement – Highlights
• $6.9 million gain on the sale of SeaTeam
• $1.9 million unrealized gain on marketable
securities
• $2.5 million gain on derivatives
• $1.6 million share of losses of associated
companies
• $1.3 million amortization of acquired time
charters
2020 2020 2019
(in millions $) Dec 31 Sep 30 Dec 31
Assets
Cash 190 211 177
Other current assets 189 194 271
Non-current assets
Vessels and newbuildings 3 418 3 443 3 067
Goodwill 112 112 112
Other long-term assets 10 24 70
Total assets 3 918 3 984 3 698
Liabilities and Equity
Short term debt and current portion of long term debt 167 221 439
Obligations under finance and operational lease 12 15 288
Other current liabilities 102 127 121
Non-current liabilities
Long term debt 1 969 1 936 1 254
Obligations under finance and operating lease 53 58 84
Other long-term liabilities 4 5 1
Noncontrolling interest (0) 0 0
Frontline Ltd. stockholders' equity 1 612 1 621 1 510
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 3 918 3 984 3 698
5
Balance Sheet - Highlights
Notes
• $413 million in cash and cash equivalents,
including undrawn amount of unsecured
facility which was extended by 12 months
to May 2022, marketable securities and
minimum cash requirements bank as per
31.12.20
• “Fully funded” Newbuilding Program
• No material debt maturities until 2023
$21 600
$17 800
$15 600
$7 800
$9 700
$8 300
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
VLCC Suezmax LR2
Cash breakeven 2021 Opex Q4 2020 Avg. breakeven Fleet 2021
$18 200
Daily cash breakeven and OPEX
Note: Daily cash breakeven in USD based on estimate for 2021. Cash generation 365 days from 1. January 2021 and adjusted for NB deliveries
Cash sensitivity above breakeven levels
6
Cash Breakeven and Cash Generation PotentialLow cash breakeven levels provide significant operating leverage & protect our cash
flows during periods of market weakness
$240
$461
$683
$905
$1,21
$2,33
$3,46
$4,58
-
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
-
200
400
600
800
1 000
$10 000 $20 000 $30 000 $40 000
$ p
er s
hare
/ ye
ar
$ m
illio
ns /
year
$/day above BE rates
Cash generation above BE rates Total cash generation per share
7Source: EIA Feb-21, Clipper data
Q420 Tanker Market
• Oil inventories drew at a record pace in Q4-20, both in floating and land-based capacity
• Global Oil Demand recovered to 95.4mbd in Dec-20, nearly 10 mbd above lows in Q2-20
• Crude oil prices rallied to $50 USD/bbl, all major commodity prices firmed significantly
• Vessel supply weighted on the market as floating storage was released
• Chinese oil consumption reached all time high in Dec-20 at 15.6 mbd.
19,61
-3,17
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
2020 2021
Mill
ion
BB
L/D
ay
Total Crude and Other LiquidsStock balance
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
Jan-
20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb
-21
Tho
usan
d B
BL
Floating StorageStationary Vessels 21d+
8Source: Fearnleys; Frontline
VLCC fleet
Global fleet capacity continue to slowTanker recycling activity muted as the fleet continues to age
Commentary
• The argument that ships older than 20
years struggle to trade in the
conventional oil market is undisputed.
• With freight rates at zero to negative
for non-eco tonnage, we struggle to
see the prospects for this portion of the
fleet.
• There is a limited demand for storage,
in a steeply backwardated market.
• The upcoming regulatory changes with
regards to GHG emissions will
challenge the fleet going forward.
• Ordering activity is muted and does
not match the age profile of the fleet.Suezmax fleet
3827 36 36 29 31
19 2839
53 58 6549
31 23 21
47 49 40
68
37
4
35 42
9
-28 -26 -34 -28
-3 -1 -3 -9 -13 -6-16 -18
-7 -1 -2 -10-31
-4 -1 -2
-61
-34 -35
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
# of
ves
sels
Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+
18 1424 21 25 23 25 23
14
4537 43 45
178 9
26
51
31 2618
7
14 29
1
-18 -24-15 -13 -7 -4 -1 -6 -10 -8
-19-4 -8
-1-12
-23
-4 -1
-55
-24 -21
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
# of
ves
sels
Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+
9Source: Fearnleys; Frontline
Clean Product Market, a ton-mile storyCOVID-19 refinery margin squeeze, closure of old inefficient capacity
Commentary
• The reduction in Jet-fuel demand as travel
got restricted in 2020 hit refinery margins
severely.
• Refinery margins in Europe and US have
been under pressure for years, last years
depressed margins accelerated decisions
to permanently close or convert.
• Asia in general, and particularly Middle
East and China have over the last 3 years
expanded refining capacity significantly.
• Modern refineries can process a wider
range of crudes more efficiently.
• As product demand normalizes post
COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and US,
Jet-fuel and other products will to a larger
degree be sourced in Asia, incurring longer
ton-miles.
• LR2 offers great economies of scale for the
expected development in product trade
flows.
LR2 fleet
5 26 7 9 11 14 13
2835
29
1218
713
2732 35
2029
104
23
136
-25
-6 -7
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
# of
ves
sels
Delivered Sum on order 20Y+
-508
000
-689
000
-705
000
1 40
0 00
0
-1 000 000
-500 000
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
Europe USA MEG/APAC
BB
L/D
ay C
apac
ity
Refining capacity permanently closed and capacity additions
in the past 18 months
10Source: EIA Feb-21, Bloomberg
Tanker Market Outlook
• Saudi Arabia signaled a reversal of their voluntary 1 mbd cut in April-21
• Unusual cold weather in the northern hemisphere distorts usual demand patterns for oil.
• Oil demand continue to recover, despite extended lock downs. Oil prices indicate tightening markets.
• Floating storage no longer a significant factor weighing on the tanker market.
• In April alone, oil supply is expected to increase by ~3mbd according to EIA.
93,65
96,65
100,09
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
day
EIA's 2021 Outlook
Total World Supply Total World Consumption
World Supply
+ 3 mbd in Apr
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb
-21
US
D/B
BL
Brent 1st month Oil Price
11Source: IMF, Clarkson SIN
Summary
• Global tanker markets have corrected sharply during 2H-20, after a significant retraction in world growth.
• Leading commodity markets are ‘pricing in’ a strong recovery in 2021, global GDP expected to grow by 5.5%.
• Oil demand is recovering, global production is expected to increase by ~5.3 mbd in 2021.
• When the recovery starts for tankers is unknown, but we are low in the cycle.
• OPEC+ is expected to ease on cuts from Q2-21 onwards.
• Frontline is well positioned for a recovery in tanker markets with our modern, spot exposed fleet.
5,5
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Annual GDP WorldYear on Year % change
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
Q1-
2000
Q1-
2001
Q1-
2002
Q1-
2003
Q1-
2004
Q1-
2005
Q1-
2006
Q1-
2007
Q1-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q1-
2010
Q1-
2011
Q1-
2012
Q1-
2013
Q1-
2014
Q1-
2015
Q1-
2016
Q1-
2017
Q1-
2018
Q1-
2019
Q1-
2020
US
D /D
ay
Average Weighted Earnings - All Tankers
Questions & Answers
www.frontline.bm
This presentation describes: total operating revenues net of
voyage expenses, net income attributable to the Company
adjusted for certain non-cash items ("Net income adj.") and
related per share amounts and Earnings Before Interest, Tax,
Depreciation & Amortisation adjusted for the same non-cash
items ("EBITDA adj."), which are not measures prepared in
accordance with US GAAP (“non-GAAP”).
We believe the non-GAAP financial measures presented in this
press release provides investors with a means of evaluating and
understanding how the Company’s management evaluates the
Company’s operating performance.
These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered
in isolation from, as substitutes for, nor superior to financial
measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
14
Appendix
Appendix I
Reconciliation
(Million $ except per share) Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 FY 2020 FY 2019
Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses
Total operating revenues 175 247 387 412 1 221 957
Voyage expenses -74 -70 -86 -123 -353 -395
Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses 101 178 301 289 868 562
Net income adj.
Net income attributable to the Company -9 57 200 165 413 140
Add back:
Unrealized loss on marketable securities 0 0 0 5 5 1
Share of losses of associated company 2 1 3 0 6 1
Loss on derivatives 0 0 6 16 22 12
Less:
Gain on sale of subsidiary -7 -7 0
Gain on termination of lease (net of cash received) 0 0 0 -4 -4 0
Share of results of associated company 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3
Gain on settlement of claim 0 0 0 -2 -2 0
Unrealized gain on marketable securities -2 0 -1 0 -3 -3
Gain on derivatives -3 -1 0 0 -3 -2
Amortization of acquired time charters -1 -1 -1 0 -4 0
Net income adj. -20 56 206 179 422 147
(in thousands)
Weighted average number of ordinary shares (basic) 197 692 197 692 197 692 189 428 195 637 173 576
Weighted average number of ordinary shares (diluted) 197 692 197 796 197 810 197 764 197 808 179 315
(in $)
Basic earnings per share adjusted for certain non-cash items -0,10 0,29 1,04 0,95 2,16 0,84
Diluted earnings per share adjusted for certain non-cash items -0,10 0,29 1,04 0,91 2,13 0,82
EBITDA adj.
Net income attributable to the Company -9 57 200 165 413 140
Add back:
Interest expense 15 16 18 23 72 94
Depreciation 36 36 34 32 139 118
Income tax expense 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net income attributable to the non-controlling interest 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share of losses of associated company 2 1 3 0 6 1
Unrealized loss on marketable securities 0 0 0 5 5 1
Loss on derivatives 0 0 6 16 22 12
Less:
Gain on sale of subsidiary -7 -7
Gain on termination of lease (net of cash received) 0 0 0 -4 -4 0
Unrealized gain on marketable securities -2 0 -1 0 -3 -3
Gain on settlement of claim 0 0 0 -2 -2 0
Share of results of associated company 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3
Gain on derivatives -3 -1 0 0 -3 -2
Amortization of acquired time charters -1 -1 -1 0 -4 0
EBITDA adj. 31 108 259 234 632 359