fourth quarter presentation feb 2021

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Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

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Page 1: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

Page 2: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

2

MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATIONREFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGECOMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDESTATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYINGASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.

FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACTOF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS“BELIEVE,” “ANTICIPATE,” “INTENDS,” “ESTIMATE,” “FORECAST,” “PROJECT,” “PLAN,” “POTENTIAL,” “MAY,” “SHOULD,” “EXPECT” “PENDING”AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.

THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, INTURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATINGTRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE’S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINEBELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TOSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE’SCONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS ORPROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NODUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES INEXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.

IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE’S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSEDIN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES,GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THETANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OILCONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE’S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING ANDINSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE’S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITHCOVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US,CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITYFROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OFSHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANTFACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE’SBUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE’S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITEDTO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANYSECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.

Forward Looking Statements

Page 3: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

Highlights

3

• Net loss of $9.2 million, or $0.05 per diluted share

• Adjusted net loss of $20.2 million, or $0.10 per diluted share

• Net income of $412.9 million or $2.09 per diluted share and adjusted net income of $421.6

million or $2.13 per diluted share for the full year 2020 – strongest yearly result since 2008

Q4 2020 Q1 2021 est. % done

$17,200 $22,600 78%

$9,800 $17,800 68%

$12,500 $12,200 65%

Reported earnings basis load to discharge

VLCC

LR2/Aframax

Suezmax

• Entered into three term loan facilities of up to $485.2 million;

o $351.5 million to refinance two existing term loan facilities maturing in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and

o up to $133.7 million to partially finance the 4 LR2 tankers under construction

• Extended the terms of the senior unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $275.0 million

by 12 months to May 2022

Page 4: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

2020 2020 2020 2019

(in thousands of $ except per share data) Oct - Dec Jul - Sep Jan - Dec Jan - Dec

Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses) 100 633 177 815 868 089 561 841

Other operating gain 6 996 (1 313) 29 902 3 422

Contingent rental (income) expense 2 472 3 827 14 568 (2 607)

Ship operating expenses 50 456 52 775 183 063 157 007

Charter hire expenses 2 547 2 556 9 557 8 471

Administrative expenses 13 178 10 456 44 238 45 019

EBITDA 38 976 106 888 646 565 357 373

EBITDA adj (*) 31 144 108 374 632 407 359 473

Interest expense (15 197) (16 104) (72 160) (94 461)

Net income (9 187) 57 068 412 875 139 973

Net income adj (*) (20 224) 56 411 421 602 146 625

Diluted earnings per share (0,05) 0,29 2,09 0,78

Diluted earnings per share adjusted (0,10) 0,29 2,13 0,82

4

Note: Diluted earnings per share is based on 197,692 and 197,796

weighted average shares (in thousands) outstanding for Q4 2020

and Q3 2020, respectively

*See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP

figures

Adjustment items for Q4 2020:

Income Statement – Highlights

• $6.9 million gain on the sale of SeaTeam

• $1.9 million unrealized gain on marketable

securities

• $2.5 million gain on derivatives

• $1.6 million share of losses of associated

companies

• $1.3 million amortization of acquired time

charters

Page 5: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

2020 2020 2019

(in millions $) Dec 31 Sep 30 Dec 31

Assets

Cash 190 211 177

Other current assets 189 194 271

Non-current assets

Vessels and newbuildings 3 418 3 443 3 067

Goodwill 112 112 112

Other long-term assets 10 24 70

Total assets 3 918 3 984 3 698

Liabilities and Equity

Short term debt and current portion of long term debt 167 221 439

Obligations under finance and operational lease 12 15 288

Other current liabilities 102 127 121

Non-current liabilities

Long term debt 1 969 1 936 1 254

Obligations under finance and operating lease 53 58 84

Other long-term liabilities 4 5 1

Noncontrolling interest (0) 0 0

Frontline Ltd. stockholders' equity 1 612 1 621 1 510

Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 3 918 3 984 3 698

5

Balance Sheet - Highlights

Notes

• $413 million in cash and cash equivalents,

including undrawn amount of unsecured

facility which was extended by 12 months

to May 2022, marketable securities and

minimum cash requirements bank as per

31.12.20

• “Fully funded” Newbuilding Program

• No material debt maturities until 2023

Page 6: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

$21 600

$17 800

$15 600

$7 800

$9 700

$8 300

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

VLCC Suezmax LR2

Cash breakeven 2021 Opex Q4 2020 Avg. breakeven Fleet 2021

$18 200

Daily cash breakeven and OPEX

Note: Daily cash breakeven in USD based on estimate for 2021. Cash generation 365 days from 1. January 2021 and adjusted for NB deliveries

Cash sensitivity above breakeven levels

6

Cash Breakeven and Cash Generation PotentialLow cash breakeven levels provide significant operating leverage & protect our cash

flows during periods of market weakness

$240

$461

$683

$905

$1,21

$2,33

$3,46

$4,58

-

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

$10 000 $20 000 $30 000 $40 000

$ p

er s

hare

/ ye

ar

$ m

illio

ns /

year

$/day above BE rates

Cash generation above BE rates Total cash generation per share

Page 7: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

7Source: EIA Feb-21, Clipper data

Q420 Tanker Market

• Oil inventories drew at a record pace in Q4-20, both in floating and land-based capacity

• Global Oil Demand recovered to 95.4mbd in Dec-20, nearly 10 mbd above lows in Q2-20

• Crude oil prices rallied to $50 USD/bbl, all major commodity prices firmed significantly

• Vessel supply weighted on the market as floating storage was released

• Chinese oil consumption reached all time high in Dec-20 at 15.6 mbd.

19,61

-3,17

-10,00

-5,00

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

2020 2021

Mill

ion

BB

L/D

ay

Total Crude and Other LiquidsStock balance

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

Jan-

20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb

-21

Tho

usan

d B

BL

Floating StorageStationary Vessels 21d+

Page 8: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

8Source: Fearnleys; Frontline

VLCC fleet

Global fleet capacity continue to slowTanker recycling activity muted as the fleet continues to age

Commentary

• The argument that ships older than 20

years struggle to trade in the

conventional oil market is undisputed.

• With freight rates at zero to negative

for non-eco tonnage, we struggle to

see the prospects for this portion of the

fleet.

• There is a limited demand for storage,

in a steeply backwardated market.

• The upcoming regulatory changes with

regards to GHG emissions will

challenge the fleet going forward.

• Ordering activity is muted and does

not match the age profile of the fleet.Suezmax fleet

3827 36 36 29 31

19 2839

53 58 6549

31 23 21

47 49 40

68

37

4

35 42

9

-28 -26 -34 -28

-3 -1 -3 -9 -13 -6-16 -18

-7 -1 -2 -10-31

-4 -1 -2

-61

-34 -35

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

# of

ves

sels

Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+

18 1424 21 25 23 25 23

14

4537 43 45

178 9

26

51

31 2618

7

14 29

1

-18 -24-15 -13 -7 -4 -1 -6 -10 -8

-19-4 -8

-1-12

-23

-4 -1

-55

-24 -21

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

# of

ves

sels

Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+

Page 9: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

9Source: Fearnleys; Frontline

Clean Product Market, a ton-mile storyCOVID-19 refinery margin squeeze, closure of old inefficient capacity

Commentary

• The reduction in Jet-fuel demand as travel

got restricted in 2020 hit refinery margins

severely.

• Refinery margins in Europe and US have

been under pressure for years, last years

depressed margins accelerated decisions

to permanently close or convert.

• Asia in general, and particularly Middle

East and China have over the last 3 years

expanded refining capacity significantly.

• Modern refineries can process a wider

range of crudes more efficiently.

• As product demand normalizes post

COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and US,

Jet-fuel and other products will to a larger

degree be sourced in Asia, incurring longer

ton-miles.

• LR2 offers great economies of scale for the

expected development in product trade

flows.

LR2 fleet

5 26 7 9 11 14 13

2835

29

1218

713

2732 35

2029

104

23

136

-25

-6 -7

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

# of

ves

sels

Delivered Sum on order 20Y+

-508

000

-689

000

-705

000

1 40

0 00

0

-1 000 000

-500 000

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

Europe USA MEG/APAC

BB

L/D

ay C

apac

ity

Refining capacity permanently closed and capacity additions

in the past 18 months

Page 10: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

10Source: EIA Feb-21, Bloomberg

Tanker Market Outlook

• Saudi Arabia signaled a reversal of their voluntary 1 mbd cut in April-21

• Unusual cold weather in the northern hemisphere distorts usual demand patterns for oil.

• Oil demand continue to recover, despite extended lock downs. Oil prices indicate tightening markets.

• Floating storage no longer a significant factor weighing on the tanker market.

• In April alone, oil supply is expected to increase by ~3mbd according to EIA.

93,65

96,65

100,09

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2021

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

day

EIA's 2021 Outlook

Total World Supply Total World Consumption

World Supply

+ 3 mbd in Apr

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb

-21

US

D/B

BL

Brent 1st month Oil Price

Page 11: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

11Source: IMF, Clarkson SIN

Summary

• Global tanker markets have corrected sharply during 2H-20, after a significant retraction in world growth.

• Leading commodity markets are ‘pricing in’ a strong recovery in 2021, global GDP expected to grow by 5.5%.

• Oil demand is recovering, global production is expected to increase by ~5.3 mbd in 2021.

• When the recovery starts for tankers is unknown, but we are low in the cycle.

• OPEC+ is expected to ease on cuts from Q2-21 onwards.

• Frontline is well positioned for a recovery in tanker markets with our modern, spot exposed fleet.

5,5

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Annual GDP WorldYear on Year % change

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

Q1-

2000

Q1-

2001

Q1-

2002

Q1-

2003

Q1-

2004

Q1-

2005

Q1-

2006

Q1-

2007

Q1-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010

Q1-

2011

Q1-

2012

Q1-

2013

Q1-

2014

Q1-

2015

Q1-

2016

Q1-

2017

Q1-

2018

Q1-

2019

Q1-

2020

US

D /D

ay

Average Weighted Earnings - All Tankers

Page 12: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

Questions & Answers

Page 13: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

www.frontline.bm

Page 14: Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2021

This presentation describes: total operating revenues net of

voyage expenses, net income attributable to the Company

adjusted for certain non-cash items ("Net income adj.") and

related per share amounts and Earnings Before Interest, Tax,

Depreciation & Amortisation adjusted for the same non-cash

items ("EBITDA adj."), which are not measures prepared in

accordance with US GAAP (“non-GAAP”).

We believe the non-GAAP financial measures presented in this

press release provides investors with a means of evaluating and

understanding how the Company’s management evaluates the

Company’s operating performance.

These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered

in isolation from, as substitutes for, nor superior to financial

measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

14

Appendix

Appendix I

Reconciliation

(Million $ except per share) Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 FY 2020 FY 2019

Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses

Total operating revenues 175 247 387 412 1 221 957

Voyage expenses -74 -70 -86 -123 -353 -395

Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses 101 178 301 289 868 562

Net income adj.

Net income attributable to the Company -9 57 200 165 413 140

Add back:

Unrealized loss on marketable securities 0 0 0 5 5 1

Share of losses of associated company 2 1 3 0 6 1

Loss on derivatives 0 0 6 16 22 12

Less:

Gain on sale of subsidiary -7 -7 0

Gain on termination of lease (net of cash received) 0 0 0 -4 -4 0

Share of results of associated company 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3

Gain on settlement of claim 0 0 0 -2 -2 0

Unrealized gain on marketable securities -2 0 -1 0 -3 -3

Gain on derivatives -3 -1 0 0 -3 -2

Amortization of acquired time charters -1 -1 -1 0 -4 0

Net income adj. -20 56 206 179 422 147

(in thousands)

Weighted average number of ordinary shares (basic) 197 692 197 692 197 692 189 428 195 637 173 576

Weighted average number of ordinary shares (diluted) 197 692 197 796 197 810 197 764 197 808 179 315

(in $)

Basic earnings per share adjusted for certain non-cash items -0,10 0,29 1,04 0,95 2,16 0,84

Diluted earnings per share adjusted for certain non-cash items -0,10 0,29 1,04 0,91 2,13 0,82

EBITDA adj.

Net income attributable to the Company -9 57 200 165 413 140

Add back:

Interest expense 15 16 18 23 72 94

Depreciation 36 36 34 32 139 118

Income tax expense 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net income attributable to the non-controlling interest 0 0 0 0 0 0

Share of losses of associated company 2 1 3 0 6 1

Unrealized loss on marketable securities 0 0 0 5 5 1

Loss on derivatives 0 0 6 16 22 12

Less:

Gain on sale of subsidiary -7 -7

Gain on termination of lease (net of cash received) 0 0 0 -4 -4 0

Unrealized gain on marketable securities -2 0 -1 0 -3 -3

Gain on settlement of claim 0 0 0 -2 -2 0

Share of results of associated company 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3

Gain on derivatives -3 -1 0 0 -3 -2

Amortization of acquired time charters -1 -1 -1 0 -4 0

EBITDA adj. 31 108 259 234 632 359