59

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

BtKmf Imem-hÿ hyXn-bm-\hpwtIcf-Ønse h\-ßfpw

tUm. tPmkv I√-d-°¬tIcf h\-K-th-jW C≥Ãn-Syq- v

]o®n ˛ 68065, Xriq¿, tIcf

`utam-]-cn-XeØnse Ic-]-tZ-i-Øns‚ GI-tZiw 30 iX-am-\-tØmfw h\-\n-_n-

V-am-Wv. h\-ß-fn-epw AXnse Bhm-k-hy-h-ÿ-I-fn-ep-ambn Zi-e-£-°-W-°n-\p≈

Poh-Pm-e-߃ ]c-kv]-c-]-h¿Ø-\-߃ \S-Øp-∂Xp hgn-bpw, Ah hmbp, Pew,

aÆv F∂n-h-bp-ambn _‘-s∏-Sp-Øp-∂-Xp-h-gnbpw a\pjy Pohn-X-Øn\v Bh-iy-amb

F√m ASn-ÿm\ hkvXp-°fpw e`n-°p-∂p. h\-ß-fnse kky-Pm-e-ß-fnepw aÆn-ep-

ambn 1200 ssKKmS¨ Im¿_WmWv \nt£-]n-®ncn-°p-∂-Xv. A¥-co-£-Øn¬ 762

ssKKm-S¨ amXw Im¿_¨ D≈-t∏mƒ, h\-߃ Im¿_-Wns‚ FX hen-sbmcp

Ie-h-d-bm-sW∂p \ap°v A\p-am-\n-°mw.

h\-ß-fpsS LS-\-bpw, Bhm-k-hy-h-ÿ-bpw, Ah-bpsS a‰p kz`m-h-ßfpw \n¿W-

bn-°p∂ G‰hpw ][m\ LSIw Imem-h-ÿ-bm-Wv. Cu \q‰m-≠ns‚ Ah-km-\-

tØmsS BtKm-f-Xm-]-\ne GI-tZiw 40C hsc Db-cm-\p≈ km[y-X-bmWv IPCC2007- ¬ ]kn-≤o-I-cn® \mem-asØ Ah-tem-I\ dnt∏m¿´n-ep-f-f-Xv. ASp-Ø-Imew

hsc \mw h\-ßsf I≠n-cp-∂Xv Km¿ln-I- -hy-h-kmb Bh-iy-߃°v XSn D¬]m-

Zn-∏n-°p-Ibpw Aßs\ k¿°m-cns‚ dh\yp h¿[n-∏n-°p-Ibpw sNøp∂ Hcp D]m-[n-

bm-bn- mWv. h\-߃ ]mtZ-inI taJ-e-I-fnse Imem-h-ÿsb \nb-¥n-°p∂hbm-

sW-∂pw, Pe-Øns‚ h≥ tkmX- m-sW∂pw \man-t∏mƒ IqSp-X-embn a\- n-em°n

hcn-I-bm-Wv. F∂m¬, BtKmf Imem-hÿ hyXn-bm\w F∂ ]Xn-`mkw aqew

\ΩpsS h\-ßfpw AXns\ ]Xy-£-ambpw ]tcm-£-ambpw Bi-bn®p Ign-bp∂

kaqlw apgp-h\pw hen-sbmcp `ojWn t\cn-Sm≥ t]mI-bm-Wv. Cu `oj-Wn-sb-°p-

dn®pw AXp-aqew tIc-f-Ønse h\-߃°v Fs¥ms° kw -hn-°m≥ km[y-X-bp-

s≠-∂-Xn-s\-°p-dn®pw imkvXo-b-amb Hcp hni-I-e-\-amWv Cu teJ-\-Øn-eqsS

Dt±-in-°p-∂-Xv. IqSm-sX, Imem-hÿ hyXn-bm-\-sa∂ ]Xn- mkw aqew D≠m-Im-\n-

60

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

S -bp≈ \mi-\-jvS -ß-fn¬

\n∂pw h\-ßsf Fßs\

kwc-£n-°m-sa∂pw ChnsS

]Xn-]m-Zn-°p-∂p-≠v. BtKmf

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w tIc-

f-Ønse h\-ßsf GsXms°

coXn -bn¬ _m[n -°p -sa∂v

\ap°p t\m°mw. Imem-hÿm

hyXn-bm\w `qan-bpsS hnhn[

taJ-e-Isf hfsc hyXy-ÿ-

amb coXn -bn -em -bn -cn°pw

_m[n-°pI F∂p≈ Imcyw

Cu ]Xn -`m -ksØ hfsc

k¶o¿W-am-°p-∂p. AXn-s\-°p-dn®v Nne- A\n-›n-Xm-h-ÿ-Iƒ \ne-\n¬°p-∂-Xn-

\m¬ k¶¬]-ßsf (scenarios) B[m-c-am-°n-bmWv ]h-N-\-߃ \S-Øp-∂-Xv. DZm-

l-c-WØn\v, A2 k¶¬]sØ B[m-c-am-°n-bm¬ C¥y-bn¬ 4.20C hsc Xm]-\ne

Cu \q‰m-≠ns‚ A¥y-tØmsS Db-cm≥ km[y-X-bp-≠v. AtX-k-a-bw, B2 k¶¬]-

Øn¬ CXv 2.90C hsc amX-am-Wv. B2 k¶¬]-a-\p-k-cn®v ]›naL -Øn-¬ 2.40 Chsc amXamWv Xm]-\ne Db-cm-\p≈ km[y-X. CtX k¶¬]-Øn¬ ag-bpsS Afhv

C∂-tØ-°mƒ 376 an.-ao. F√m h\-ta-J-e-I-fnepw IqSm-\mWv km[y-X. C¥y-bnse

h\-ta-J-e-I-fpsS Hcp XmcXay ]T\w \S-Øn-bm¬ ]›n-a-L- -Ønse Xm]-\n-e-bn-

emWv G‰hpw Ipd™ hyXymkw D≠m-Im-\p≈ km[y-X. AXn-\m¬ tIc-f-Ønse

h\-߃°v Imcy-amb \mi-\-jvS-߃ D≠m-Im≥ CS-bn-s√∂v \ap°p tXm∂n-tb-

°mw. F∂m¬ bYm¿∞Øn¬ Cu Xm]-hy-Xn-bm\w \ΩpsS h\-ß-fpsS LS-\-sb-

bpw, D¬∏m-Z-\-sØbpw AXn-\p-≈nse ssPh-ssh-hn-[y-sØbpw kmc-ambn _m[n-

°m-\n-S-bp-≠v. DZm-l-c-W-am-bn, hf-sc-b-[nIw ssPh sshhn-[y-ap≈ tIc-f-Ønse

Ce-s]m-gnbpw ImSp-I-fn¬ 35 iX-am-\-tØmfw Cu \q‰m-≠ns‚ A¥y-tØmsS \nXy-

l-cnXh\-ß-fm-Ip-sa-∂mWv ]h-N-\w. CXv ag-bpsS Afhpw Xm]-\n-ebpw Db-cp-∂-

Xp-sIm-≠m-Wv. imkvX-RvP-∑m-cpsS \nK-a-\-Øn¬ G‰hpw Ipd™ hyXymkw hcm≥

t]mIp∂ C¥y-bnse h\߃ ]›n-a-L- -Ønse \nXy-l-cnX h\-ßfpw Xoc-]-tZ-

i-ß-fnse I≠¬°m-Sp-I-fp-am-Wv.

Ct∏mƒ Xs∂ \ΩpsS h\-߃ Imen-ta-®n¬, hnd-Ip-ti-J-c-Ww, Nhdv tiJ-

cWw apX-em-b-h-bn¬ \n∂pw \miw t\cn- p-sIm-≠n-cn-°pI-bm-Wv. Imem-hÿm hyXn-

bm-\-Øns‚ ]¶p-IqSn CXn-t\m-sSm∏w hcp-tºmƒ h\--\-io-I-cWw ]Xn-∑-Sßv h¿≤n-

°m-\mWv km[y-X.

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w aqew kw -hn-°m≥ km[y-X-bp≈ as‰mcpImcyw h\-

ß-fpsS D¬∏m-Z-\-£-a-X-bmWv (Net Primary Prductivity - NPP).tI-cfØnse h\-ß-

fpsS D¬∏m-Z-\-£-aX H∂c aSßv h¿≤n-°p-sa-∂p tI´m¬ AXn-ibw tXm∂mw.

61

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

Im¿_¨ Utbm-Ivssk-Uns‚ A¥-co-£-Ønse kmµX IqSp-∂Xp sIm≠m-WnXp

kw`-hn-°p-∂-Xv. Ce-I-fnse ]Imi kwt«-jWw hgn-bmbn IqSp-X¬ Im¿_¨

Utbm-IvsskUv Cu Ah-k-c-Øn¬ Ce-I-fn¬ ]th-in-°p-Ibpw AXv Jc-]-Zm¿∞-

ß-fmbn amdp-Ibpw sNøp-∂p. F∂m¬ F√m C\w sNSn-Ifpw Cu coXn-bn¬ IqSp-

X¬ D¬∏m-Z\w \S-Ø-W-sa-∂n-√. Ign-™-Im-e-ß-fnse Kth-j-W-߃ ]cn-tim-[n-

®m¬ \ap°p ImWm≥ Ign-bp-∂Xv Nne sNSn-I-fn¬ ]Imi kwt«-jWw A¥-

co£ Im¿_¨ Utbm-Ivssk-Uns‚ Afhv IqSp-tºmƒ, Ipd-bp-∂-Xmbn ImW-s∏-

Sp-∂p. tIc-fØnse hr£bn\-߃ GXp coXn-bn¬ C°mcyw sNøp∂p F∂-Xn-

s\-∏‰n \ap°v IqSp-X¬ Adn-hn-√.

]e h\-]-tZ-i-ßfpw C∂sØ Bhm-k-hy-h-ÿ-bn¬ \n∂pw amdn as‰mcp

Bhm-k-hy-h-ÿ-bn-tebv°v t]mIm-\p≈ km[y-X-bmWv F√m ]T-\-ß-fnepw ImWp-

∂-Xv. CXp-sIm≠v ]tXy-In®v henb ]iv\-ß-sfm-∂p-an-s√∂p tXm∂p-sa-¶n-epw,

]e-Po-h-Pm-e-ßfpw Imem-h-ÿm-hy-Xn-bm-\-tØmSv ]e hn[-Øn¬ ]-Xn-I-cn-°p-∂-

Xn-\m¬ Hcp ]s£ CXns‚ BLmXw \mw ]Xo-£n-°p-∂-Xn-t\-°mƒ hfsc IqSp-

X¬ B-bn-cn-°pw. DZm-l-c-W-am-bn, F√m C\w ac-ßfpw ]Imi kwt«-jWw hgn

IqSp-X¬ hf¿® IqSp-X¬ Im¿_¨ Utbm-Ivssk-Uns‚ km∂n-[y-Øn¬ ]m]n-°-

W-sa-∂n√ F∂v ]e ]T\ßfpw sXfn-bn-°p-∂p-≠v. Nne hr£-ß-fn¬ CXv Ipd-bp-

I-bm-sW∂v ]T-\-߃ hy‡-am-°p-∂p. Aßs\ t\m°n-bm¬ Nne C\w hr£-

߃ ]q¿Æ-ambpw A]-Xy-£-am-tb-°mw. At∏mƒ Ahsb Bi-bn-°p∂ a‰p

Poh-Pm-e-߃ Fßs\ ]Xn-I-cn°pw F∂-Xn-s\-°p-dn®v A[nIw ]T-\-߃ \S-

∂n- n-√. Bhm-k-hy-h-ÿ-bn-ep≈ ]c-kv]c _‘-߃ AXbpw k¶o¿Æ-am-Wv.

Cu kml-N-cy-Øn¬ Imem-hÿm hyXnbm\w aqew D-S-se-Sp-°p∂ ]pXnb

]cn-ÿn-Xn-bp-am-bp≈ A\p-cq-]o-I-c-Ww (adaptation) hfsc ]m[m-\y-a¿ln-°p-∂p.

tIc-f-Øn¬ CXn\p th≠n \mw i≤n-t°≠ Nne Imcy-߃ Xmsg sImSp-°p-∂p.

1. h\-kw-_-‘-amb \b-cq-]o-I-c-W-Øn¬ Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm-\-Øn\v Hcp

][m\ ÿm\w sImSp-°p-I.

2. h\w Xp≠p-I-fmbn apdn-°m≥ A\p-h-Zn-°m-Xn-cn-°pI.

3. kwc-£nX h\-߃, tZio-tbm-Zym-\-߃ F∂n-h-bpsS hnkvXrXn Iq´m≥

ian-°p-I.

4. tXm -ta-J-e-bn¬ GI-bn-\-tXm- -߃°p]Icw ]e-P-\p- p-I-fn-ep≈ hr£-

߃ hf¿Øp-I.

5. Im´qXo ]q¿Æ-ambn XS-bp-I.

6. IqSp-X¬ BLmXw D≠m-Im≥ km[y-X-bp≈ Poh-Pm-e-߃°v th≠-co-Xn-

bn-ep≈ kwc-£Ww Dd-∏m-°p-I.

A\p-cq-]oIcWw amX-a-√, Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm-\sØ eLq-I-cn-°m-\p≈ am¿§-

߃°pw \mw ap≥Xq°w sImSp-°-Ww. h\-߃ Im¿_-Wns‚ hen-sbmcp Ie-h-d-

62

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

bm-sW∂v BZyw ]d-™-t√m. h\-ß-fn¬ _‘n-°-s∏-´n-cn-°p∂ Cu Im¿_¨

A¥-co-£-Øn-te°v Im¿_¨ Utbm-Ivssk-Umbn t]mIm-sX, AXns\ Ahn-sS-

Øs∂ kq£n-°p∂ ]Inb-bv°mWv Im¿_¨ koIz-kvtS-j≥ F∂p ]d-bp-∂-Xv.

IqSp-X¬ h\-߃ h®p]n-Sn-∏n-°p-∂-Xphgn Im¿_-Wns‚ Afhv Cu coXn-bn¬ IqSp-

Ibpw A¥-co-£-Ønse Im¿_¨ Utbm-Ivssk-Uns‚ Afhv Ipd-bp-Ibpw sNøpw.

]Imi kwt«-jWw hgn hr£-߃ A¥-co-£-Ønse hmX-I-amb Im¿_¨

Utbm-Ivssk-Uns\ Ah-bn¬ Xs∂ Jc-cq-]-Øn-ep≈ Im¿_-Wmbn kq£n-°p-

∂p. C∂sØ Imem-hÿmhyXn-bm-\-Øns‚ kml-N-cy-Øn¬, Hcp ]s£ CXm-bn-

cn°mw h\-߃ \ap°p \¬Ip∂ G‰hpw henb tkh-\w.

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm-\sØ eLq-I-cn-°m≥ h\-\-io-I-cWw ]msS \n¿Ø-em-

°p-Ibpw IqSp-X¬ h\-߃ h®p ]nSn-∏n-°p-Ibpw sNtø-≠Xv \Ωp-sSbpw `mhn-X-e-

ap-d-bp-sSbpw \ne-\n¬∏n\v AXym-h-iy-am-Wv. hnI-kz-c-˛-A-hn-I-knX cmPy-߃°v

Cu Bh-iy-Øn-\mbn bp.-F≥. t\Xr-Øz-Øn¬ D≠m-°nb Hcp IcmdmWv tIymt´m

t]mt´m-t°mƒ. CXns‚ ASn-ÿm-\-Øn¬ D≠m-°nb ‘¢o≥ Uh-e-]vsa‚ v sa°m-

\nkw’ (CDM) F∂ ]≤Xn hgn-bm-bn, hnI-kn-X-cm-Py-߃ A¥-co-£-Øn-tebv°p

X≈p∂ lcn-X-Krl hmX-I-߃°p kam-\-amb AXbpw Im¿_¨ hnI-kz-c- -A-

hn-I-knX cmPy-ß-fn¬ h\-ß-fm-tbm, Du¿÷-hn-I-k-\-Øns‚ mK-amtbm am‰n hbv°p-

∂p. CXn-\p≈ sNehv hnI-knX cmPy-߃ hln-°-Ww. C∂v Cu ]≤Xn \S-∏n-em-

°m≥ At\Iw IS-º-Iƒ IS-°-W-sa-¶nepw 2012- \p tijw Hcp ]s£ Cu ]≤-Xn-

bpsS \S-Øn∏v IqSp-X¬ efn-X-am-tb-°mw. `mhn-bn¬ \mw h\-ß-fmbpw tXm -ß-

fmbpw kq£n-°p∂ Im¿_-Wn\v hyh-km-b-h¬°-cWw \S-Øp∂ cmPy-߃ ]Ww

\¬t°-≠-Xmbn ht∂-°mw. AXn-\m¬ \mw h®p-]n-Sn-∏n-°p∂ Hmtcm hr£hpw

A¥-co-£-Ønse Im¿_¨ Utbm-Ivssk-Uns‚ Afhv Ipd-bv°p-sa-∂-dn-bp-I. hr£-

߃ hf¿Øp-∂-h¿ BtKmf Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm-\sØ eLq-I-cn-°p-∂p. a\p-

jy-Ip-e-Øn\pw \¬Ip∂ henb tkh-\-am-Ip-∂p.