frbsf university symposium board of governors ben s. bernanke, chairman darrin howard quang le layla...
TRANSCRIPT
FRBSF University Symposium
Board of Governors
Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman
Darrin Howard
Quang Le
Layla Mansfield
Nabiha Parvez
Michelle Staples
Labor
Unemployment4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings Increased 3.9%
Non-farm Payrolls 92,000 Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Gross Domestic Product
3rd Quarter Real GDP
Increased 2.2%Real Personal ConsumptionExpenditures
Increased 2.9%
GDP: Annual Percent Change
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2006
Q1 Q2 Q3
Nominal annualized% chg
Real annualized % chg
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Balance of Payments
Account Deficit6.6% of GDP
Balance of Payments(millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Current Account -137163 -131103 -131542 -127711 -145838 -166771 -166327 -186356 -191724 -193258 -183415 -223109 -213198 -218410
Capital Account 137613 132726 132406 128095 146295 167170 167250 186838 194415 193847 183972 223623 214954 219292
Balance of Payments 450 1623 864 384 457 399 923 482 2691 589 557 514 1756 882
2003Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006Q1 Q2
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Energy
Inflation
Durable GoodsNew ordersDecreased 8.3%
InventoriesIncreased 0.7%
CPIDecreased 0.5%
HousingNew Housing Starts
Down 15% to the lowest level in more than six years
Privately owned starts14.6% (±7.6%) below the revised
September estimate.27.4% (±5.3%) below the October
2005 rate.Single-family starts
15.9% (±7.4%) below the September figure
Median price for new homes10% decrease over the past 12 months
Foreclosures42% increase from last year.
FRBSF University Symposium
FRBSF University Symposium
Board of Governors
Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman
Darrin Howard
Quang Le
Layla Mansfield
Nabiha Parvez
Michelle Staples