french council of investors in africa

Foreign private sector in Africa: analysis by French investors

2016Annualreport

Special issue - June 2016 - 25 euros

French Council of Investors in Africa

www.lemoci.com LE MOCI - Special issue - June 2016 3

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The following contributed to this issue:

Alix Camus (CIAN), Thierry Apoteker

(TAC ECONOMICS), Bndicte Chtel and

Anne Guillaume-Gentil (Commodafrica)

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amarena / www.amarena.fr

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CONSEIL FRANAIS

DES INVESTISSEURS EN AFRIQUE

(French council of Investors in Africa)

45, rue de la Chausse dAntin

75009 Paris

Tel.: +33 (0)1 45 62 55 76

Email: [email protected]

Site: www.cian-afrique.org

Founder of the report

Jean-Pierre Prouteau

Editorial committee

Alix CamusStephen DecamEtienne Giros


Copyright: all reproduction, even partial, of the

texts and documents published in this issue is

subject to the prior authorization of the editorial

committee.

2016 REPORT / CONTENTS

Towards an urban Africa 5

Alexandre Vilgrain, Chairman of CIAN

Highlights of 2015 6

Country risks 2016 8

Growth in Africa: risks and opportunities for 2016

Trade between France and Africa 12

The strong impact of falling prices

Introduction 14

Urban Africas great challenges 14

An interview with Jean-Pierre Elong Mbassi 16

Conceptualizing the cities of the future 18

Finding the right contacts and designing cities 18

An interview with Armelle Choplin 20

New urban markets 22

An interview with Michle Pappalardo 22

Sanitation: a profitable market, though not

politically sexy 24

Housing: a policy in difficulty 26

Transport and energy: ambitious projects 28

Communication and street furniture: the billboard jungle 30

Public lighting: Africas cities are 32

gradually lighting up

Economic analysis by zone and country 34

The 2015 results of the CIAN survey 34

North Africa 46

West Africa 60

Central Africa 84

Southern and East Africa and the Indian Ocean 102

CIAN ACTIVITY REPORT 2016

CIANs actions and projects


Editorial

Towards

an urban Africa The explosion in Africas population is well-known, long hoped-for by some

and feared by many others. From 1.1 billion inhabitants in 2013, Africa is

expected to rise to 2.4 billion in 2050 1.3 billion more people in 35 years.

To provide food, housing, care and jobs for so many people in so little time is

a major challenge. Its up to Africa and to the international community to

rise to it. This requires all the development players, businesses, governments,

funding agencies and NGOs to concentrate on priority projects and acce-

lerate their completion: do the useful things quickly.

A second phenomenon, linked to the first and with equally important conse-

quences if not more so, is the urban development of the continent. Today,

there are 400 million African city-dwellers. They are expected to be 1.2 billion

in 2050, a three-fold increase with a progression of 800 million. We will see

gigantic cities develop. Currently, three African cities have more than 10 mil-

lion inhabitants Lagos, Cairo and Kinshasa and there are expected to be

more than thirty cities in this position in 2050.

To avoid the risk of urbanized poverty and misery, we will need to indeed,

we will have to re-invent the African city by devising new models mid-way

between the disorganized urban sprawl of today and the ultra-modern pro-

jects inspired by Dubai and Singapore.

This is where the private sector comes in, and French businesses in particular:

large groups and small-to-medium-sized companies. They can offer real

expertise in this area, with considerable know-how in designing clean, inno-

vative towns with low CO2 emissions. Its obviously also a question of wor-

king together with planners, architects, builders, specialists in networks and

flows, funding agencies and financiers.

We can do it: urban development is a vital need for Africa and an opportunity

for French companies. Lets get organized and get going.

Alexandre Vilgrain, Chairman

D.R

.

6 LE MOCI - Special issue - June 2016 www.lemoci.com

2015 / Highlights

January Frequent and deadly flooding in Africa throughout the year:

in Malawi in January, Mozambique in February, Sierra Leone inSeptember, in the usually arid region of Tindouf in Algeria inNovember and in Somalia, Kenya and Egypt, etc.

The United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon sup-ported the African Unions decision (AU) to launch an attackon the terrorist group Boko Haram, which operates in Nigeria,Cameroon, Nigeria and Mali.

France and Morocco re-established their legal co-operation. The president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, was appoin-

ted as the new president of the AU with a one-year term ofoffice.

Senegal opened its borders with Guinea after closing themfor 5 months as part of the fight against the Ebola virus.

February The WHO reported a total of 22,525 cases of Ebola (sus-

pected, probable and confirmed) and 9,004 deaths in thethree affected West-African countries (Guinea, Liberia andSierra Leone) but the epidemic, which began in December2013, is gradually fading.

The United States appointed an ambassador to Somalia forthe first time since 1991.

March In Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim, was elec-

ted president, replacing Goodluck Jonathan (13.3 millionvotes), a Christian from the south.

The Arab League Heads of State met in Egypt and announ-ced that they would set up a joint military force to fight againstterrorist groups, such as the Islamic State.

April The two former Central African presidents, Franois Boziz

and Michel Djotodia, signed the Nairobi agreement in favour ofreconciliation.

Six months before the United Nations conference on cli-mate change (COP21), the mayors of the large African citieslaunched an appeal, particularly in favour of sustainable elec-tricity in Africa, from the town hall in Paris, at the invitation ofAnne Hidalgo and Jean-Louis Borloo.

The Nigerian Minister for Agriculture, Akinwumi Adesina,was elected as head of the African Development Bank (ADB).May 5,645 foreigners left South Africa, as a result of violence

against foreigners. An agreement for peace and reconciliation in Mali was signed

at an official ceremony.June Lionel Zinsou, a banker and intellectual, left his post as chair-

man of the French investment fund PAI Partners, to becomePrime Minister of Benin. He remains as head of the Africa-France association, sharing the chairmanship with StphaneRichard, CEO of Orange, since December.

PSAs CEO signed an agreement with Morocco to build aPeugeot and Citron assembly plant locally.

Facebook opened an office in Johannesburg, the first inAfrica.

July The French president Franois Hollande carried out a state

visit to Benin, Angola and Cameroon. The American president Barack Obama visited Kenya his

fathers native land for the first time since he came to powerin 2009.

South Africa held the Universities of Africa summit meetingwhich drew up a list of the 30 leading universities on the conti-nent, many of them South African.

After years of tension, the Zimbabwean government decidedto return plots of lands confiscated from their white owners.

In South Africa, demand for pay rises in certain sectors conti-nued: miners are asking for up to +67 % and civil servants+10 %.

August President Salva Kiir Mayardit signed a peace agreement to

settle the conflict with Southern Sudan, which had been goingon since December 2013.

Libyan Prime Minister, Abdallah al Thinni, resigned. For the first time in nearly 14 years, the South African rand

fell to 13 rands to the dollar. September The International Cocoa Organization announced that itwas transferring its headquarters to Abidjan. October Students in South Africa went on strike against the rise in

tuition fees. The Nobel peace prize was awarded to Dialogue national

tunisien led by the Union gnrale tunisienne du travail(UGTT) and made up of political parties, unions, employersand representatives of civil society; this initiative has enabledthe country to emerge from the political crisis after the fall ofBen Ali.

The out-going Ivorian president Alassane Ouattara wasre-elected with 83.66 % of the votes in the first round of thepresidential elections.

November Pope Francis toured Kenya, Uganda and Central Africa. The Prime Minister of Benin, Lionel Zinsou, was designa-

ted as the governing partys candidate for the presidentialelection in 2016.

In Burkina Faso, two and a half months after a failed attemptto overthrow the government, Roch Marc Kabor (MPP) waselected in the first round of the presidential election with over50% of the vote.

COP 21During COP21 in Paris (30 November-11 December),Groupe Africa, formed in 2000, pleaded for more financialaid from wealthier countries to pay for the energy transition

D.R

.

D.R

.


A global environmental and economic

performance distinctly less favourable

in 2015

The pace of economic growth on the Afri-can continent had already slowed signi-ficantly after the global financial crisis (theregions GDP grew by an average of4.7% a year between 2009 and 2014,compared to 6.2% between 2003 and2008). Since mid-2014, the headwindsof the international environment haveblown even stronger, with a sharp fall inthe price of oil and most of the raw mate-rials exported by Africa, a collapse indemand and international trade in Europeand especially in China, and internatio-nal tension and financial volatility thathave raised the cost of capital that Africastill needs. Combined with domestic dif-ficulties in several countries (political ten-sion, ebola pandemic, infrastructure pro-blems), these international developmentshave once again influenced the pace ofAfrican development, with an averagegrowth in GDP estimated at around3.6% for 2015, compared to 3.9% in2014.At the same time, budget and externalaccount imbalances, partially concealedduring the rapid rise in raw materialprices, have returned with a vengeanceand several countries on the continenthave suffered more acute difficulties overthe last 18 months, with the IMF retur-ning to the bedside of former successstories such as Ghana, Zambia and, morerecently, Mozambique.It is essential for companies to have acorrect reading of these macroeconomicand financial developments and draw theright conclusions in terms of a strategicor tactical approach to the African mar-kets in an environment that is no doubtgoing to remain less favourable over thelong term than over the last 15 years!Three key aspects need to be incorpora-ted: (1) Africa is very dependent on raw

Growth in Africa: risks and opportunities for 2016

materials and a fall in world pricesmechanically creates pressure onexchange rates, growth and the publicaccounts; (2) the continent is stillenjoying a high rate of growth comparedto the rest of the world and long-term fac-

tors will continue to drive development;(3) the impact of external factors acts asan indicator of the various countriescapacity for resilience or their vulnera-bility, and this leads to a growing diffe-rentiation within the African continent.

A slowdown in growth and worldwide trade significantly marked 2015. What has been theimpact on African economies and what can we hope for 2016? Thierry Apoteker, of TACECONOMICS, provides us with exclusive answers.

FOCUS ON COUNTRY RISKS 2016

Commodity exports(% GDP, 2014)

(% GDP)

Sourc

e :

TA

C E

CO

NO

MIC

S

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

Uganda

Egypt

Kenya

Sudan

Morocco

Tanzania

Tunisia

Senegal

Madagascar

South Africa

Cameroon

Nigeria

DR of Congo

Mozambique

Ghana

Algeria

Ivory Coast

Zambia

Libya

Gabon

Angola

Congo

Energy Metals Other raw materials

49 %

47 %

40 %

36 %

35 %

29 %

29 %

26 %

19 %

17 %

15 %

14 %

13 %

13 %

8 %

8 %

7 %

7 %

6 %

5 %

5 %

57 %

Table 1


Great sensitivity to raw material prices,

which is differentiated by country

Despite the progress observed in thediversification of the economic fabric inmost African countries over the lasttwenty years, there is still a very high levelof dependence on raw materials withregard to maintaining a balance in thecurrency trading accounts and budgetrevenues. Table 1 shows the weight of raw materialexports (energy, metals, agricultural pro-ducts) in the GDP of a broad sample ofAfrican countries: only a handful of coun-tries shows ratios below 20% (Egypt,Morocco, Kenya) while, at the otherend of the scale, the ratio for countriessuch as Angola, Zambia and even theIvory Coast is above 30%. From mid-2014 and throughout 2015,most countries were therefore left tomanage the consequences of very sud-den external changes with, in the end,only a limited number of possible options,each with an economic, financial or socialcost: very quickly adjust public expendi-ture and imports to limit the damage tothe accounts, devalue the currency tocompensate, in currency and local reve-nues, for all or part of the fall in the priceof exported products, or look for one-offfunding to allow the deficits to run andspread the adjustment over a longerperiod. In the first case, the impact onthe growth of internal activity is heavy andrapid; in the second one, the impact isnegative on inflation and therefore onspending power and eventually ongrowth; in the final option, the conse-quences are severe for the publicaccounts, debt and future financialconstraints. In reality, African countrieshave generally mixed the three options,with the exchange rate adjustment for thecountries in the free zone assisted by the depreciation of the euro against thedollar.

Africa remains a high growth region in

an uncertain global context

The headwinds that have influenced Afri-can growth have naturally affected allcountries, especially the emerging ones:China is in difficulty, Brazil and Russia inrecession. There has been no shortageof bad news for the economies of thedeveloping countries.In this context, Africas situation remains

attractive in many ways. The annual pro-gression in the activity of the whole conti-nent will still be among the most rapid onthe planet in 2016, and current forecasts,including those by international organi-zations, suggest that it will remain so forthe rest of the decade (see table 2, illus-trating the IMFs latest forecasts).Africas relative resilience stems largelyfrom favourable domestic trends and thecontinuing structural transformation of thecontinent, which may be directly or indi-rectly linked, firstly, to a favourable long-term demographic trend, with a gradualreduction in the percentage of thedependent population (mainly childrenunder 15) compared to those old enoughto work, combined with the rapid expan-sion of the middle classes and the rapidurban development process being expe-rienced by most of the African countries

Growth rate of GDP per region(in %)

Sourc

e :

TA

C E

CO

NO

MIC

S

Middle East

Europe

CEI

Asia

Latin America

Africa

2010

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Table 2

and, secondly, to a process of integra-tion at both a regional level and in termsof international trade.

The key word:

differentiation between countries

In this context, the relative consistencyof African success over the last decade isat an end. Countries differentiatedassets, their ability to adapt and their flexi-bility (financial and cyclical) and the qua-lity of economic governance will now actas major differentiators within the conti-nent. Considering the short-term chal-lenges that the international environmenthas brought to light, the key componentsof the risk analysis concern, firstly, thedegree and intensity of the imbalancesin the external and public accounts and,secondly, currency liquidity and the deve-lopment of exchange rates. Tables 3

Africas relative resilience stems largelyfrom favourable domestic trends


and 4 show the performance of a broadrange of African countries in relation tothese criteria.Table 3 presents the forecast figures for2016 in terms of budget position and thecurrent balance of payments (externaltrade in goods, services and revenues).The most resilient countries are thosethat have both a government balance anda current account balance in a low deficitsituation respectively (e.g. Morocco); onthe other hand, the most vulnerable coun-tries are those that have one or two ofthese balances in a very high deficit situa-tion (e.g. Mozambique).The second table is linked to the level of

exchange reserves held by the central bank(measured in months imports), as econo-mic resilience in a period of uncertainty, isclosely linked to these reserves and to themargins for manoeuvre that they give tothe authorities. The countries whosereserves cover less than three monthsimports are, by nature, more vulnerable.We can therefore identify a group of coun-tries that should get through the currentturbulent period without too much damage:this includes the Ivory Coast and Morocco,two key partners for French companies.Conversely, Mozambique and, to a lesserextent, Tanzania both appear to be in adangerous situation: the former has already

asked the IMF for financial support, inNovember 2015, while the latter shouldbe watched very carefully over the next fewquarters. Senegal and Cameroon are lessvulnerable but should also be watched astheir performance is not convincing. Forthis group of countries, the combination ofconstraints is suggestive of acute difficul-ties in terms of growth in demand and acti-vity bearing in mind that the currentperiod can also be used for moving intocountries and markets, sometimes on moreattractive terms than during the period ofrelative euphoria that is now behind us.

Thierry ApotekerChairman, TAC ECONOMICS

FOCUS ON COUNTRY RISKS 2016

34.5

Sourc

e :

TA

C E

CO

NO

MIC

S

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Exchange reserves in month of imports(In month, 2015 T2)

Uganda

Egypt

Kenya

Sudan

Morocco

Tanzania

Tunisia

Senegal

Madagascar

Cameroon

Nigeria

DR of Congo

Mozambique

Ghana

Algeria

Ivory Coast

Zambia

Gabon

Angola

Congo

South Africa

Algeria

Zambia

South Africa

Angola

Cameroon

Congo

Ivory Coast

Egypt

Gabon

Ghana

Kenya

Madagascar

Morocco

Mozambique

Nigeria

Uganda

DR of Congo

Senegal

Sudan

Tanzania

Tunisia

Public accounts balances and external

accounts

(IMF projection for 2016)

-45.3 %

-5-10-15-20 0

Sourc

e :

TA

C E

CO

NO

MIC

S

Public balance (%GDP) Current balance (%GDP)

Table 3 Table 4

Table

s : C

hantr

ieux

Among the group of countries that should get through the currentturbulent period without too much damage are the Ivory Coastand Morocco, two key partners for French companies


In 2014, trade between France andAfrica was on a slightly downward trend,according to French customs statistics(table opposite): a 2.28% decline inimports from Africa at 26.284 billionEUR, and a slight fall, -0.61%, in Frenchexports (27.448 billion EUR). However,Frances trade surplus with Africa impro-ved, from 441M EUR in 2013 to 1.164billion EUR in 2014. On the import side, the trend is explai-ned by the fall in the price of oil productsand certain ores (manganese for Gabon,uranium for Nigeria). Frances leadingsuppliers still include two major hydro-carbon producers, Algeria and Nigeria,followed by Morocco and Tunisia, whosegoods are diversified between agricultu-ral and industrial products. Imports fromAngola, mainly hydrocarbons, were upby 70%, compensating for lower importsof crude oil from Libya and EquatorialGuinea. Concerning exports from France, flowsare almost stationary, 0.61% down on2013. Algeria remains by far Francesleading customer on the continent, repre-senting over 22% of French exports toAfrica, a rise of 4.3%. The leading Frenchexport is cereals, followed by pharma-ceutical products and vehicles. BehindAlgeria are two other North African coun-tries: Morocco and Tunisia. French exports to South Africa, the big-gest customer in sub-Saharan Africa,rose by 9% in 2014. However, this pro-gression is largely due to the very sharpincrease in aeronautical exports (six Airbus A320-200), which doubled to406 M EUR. If we exclude the aeronau-tical sector, they fell by 2.8%. Finally, Egypt took over fourth place fromNigeria with a 17% increase in Frenchexports linked to the resumption of acti-vity in this country.

The strongimpact offalling prices

TRADE BETWEEN FRANCE AND AFRICA

FRENCH EXPORTS TO AFRICATHE TOP 20 CUSTOMER COUNTRIES IN AFRICA IN 2014 (IN EUROS)

2013 2014 2014/2013 (%)

South Africa 1,785,528,746 1,946,791,048 9.03

Algeria 5,901,169,885 6,157,295,481 4.34

Angola 461,101,122 769,684,846 66.92

Burkina Faso 332,036,176 269,209,744 - 18.92

Benin 269,158,069 263,659,258 - 2.04

Cameroon 707,462,792 654,189,016 - 7.53

Congo 580 535 135 635,892,211 9.54

Ivory Coast 1,024,747,743 1,064,768,648 3.91

Egypt 1,347,627,927 1,577,381,456 17.05

Gabon 728,111,622 679,724,563 -6.65

Libya 801,166,733 261,069,928 - 67.41

Madagascar 296,328,366 290,960,799 - 1.81

Mali 306,655,593 349,534,635 13.98

Morocco 3,856,138,552 3,777,609,639 -2.04

Mauritius 334,890,141 332,820,309 - 0.62

Mauritania 221,033,837 209,821,226 -5.07

Nigeria 1,520,799,816 1,516,041,893 - 0.31

Senegal 706,037,606 729,083,632 3.26

Togo 397 891 483 730 020 533 83.47

Tunisia 3 702 903 362 3 354 292 397 - 9.41

Total Africa 27 615 899 859 27 448 353 238 - 0.61

Sou

rce

: Fre

nch

cust

oms

FRENCH IMPORTS FROM AFRICATHE TOP 20 SUPPLIER COUNTRIES IN AFRICA IN 2014 (IN EUROS)

2013 2014 2014/2013 (%)

South Africa 808,770,925 874,834,431 8.17

Algeria 4,241,671,489 4 390,355,379 3.51

Angola 923,112,520 1,565,768,570 69.62

Congo 424,610,182 201,241,335 - 52.61

Ivory Coast 662,778,984 630,232,200 - 4.91

Cameroon 227,638,079 230,758,094 1.37

Egypt 1,196,796,613 1,035,876,359 - 13.45

Gabon 342,527,536 125,119,514 -63.47

Ghana 859,934,276 761,842,049 - 11.41

Equatorial Guinea 1,141,849,118 748,605,327 -34.44

Libya 3,217,685,948 1,859,839,168 - 42.20

Morocco 3,329,790,367 3,622,834,519 8.80

Madagascar 382,180,396 379,433,138 - 0.72

Mauritius 272,717,020 280,112,735 2.71

Namibia 128,812,109 118,684,751 - 7.86

Niger 595,774,643 390,766,474 - 34.41

Nigeria 3,795,827,587 4,115,690,577 8.43

Senegal 90,278,860 82,123,701 - 9.03

Seychelles 120,427,644 103,938,732 - 13.69

Tunisia 3,744,868,509 4,049,819,193 8.14

Total Africa 27,174,360,773 26,284,221,537 - 3.28

Sou

rce

: Fre

nch

cust

oms


Only 39% of Africas population currentlylives in cities, which ranks the regionamong the least urbanized in the world, just ahead of Southern Asia (33%), according to the World Bankdata for 2014. However, urban develop-ment is progressing at a rapid pace. Forthe whole continent, the level of urbandevelopment is expected to reach 50 %by 2035 and 58% in 2050! The numberof city-dwellers is therefore set to risefrom the current 400 million to 1.26 bil-lion in 2050.All eyes are therefore riveted on Africaspolitical and/or economic capitals, towhich ever larger numbers of people areflocking. However, it is not the capitalsthat are growing the fastest. Accordingto the UN Human Settlements pro-grammes 2014 report on The State ofAfrican Cities(1), the conurbations withat least one million inhabitants are onlyabsorbing an average of some 25% of

Urban Africas great challenges

a countrys urban population growth,while the other 75% is absorbed by themid-sized cities. However, despite a few recent interna-tional initiatives, relatively little attentionhas been paid to these cities. And yetmost of them are deprived of economicresources and political power. In manycountries, decentralization is in itsinfancy and few, if any, local electedrepresentatives those who are closestto local realities are able to pick upany international funding to even drawup a blueprint for their city, deal withland issues or invest in infrastructures,services or housing. Very often, theseelected representatives remain in theshadows and are little prepared for themassive challenges that they will haveto face and are already beginning toexperience.The debate is therefore currently focu-sed on the capital cities.

By 2035, 50% of Africas population will be living in cities. Africas urban development ismoving forward with giant steps, driven by an increasingly well-informed population ofyoung people and a middle class aspiring to modernity. The authorities will therefore needto double their efforts to plot the course, keep to it and learn to delegate.

INTRODUCTION

A change of appearanceApart from the quantitative changes,which pose enormous challenges, capi-tal cities and secondary cities are alsochanging their appearance. Althoughthey live in the suburbs, informal districtsand shanty towns, todays youth alwayshave a mobile phone in their pockets. Ascitizens and consumers, they are muchbetter informed than those who are onlyjust 10 years older, and their demand forservices and consumer goods is totallydifferent and much more diversified andexacting. As for the famous middle classes which have become a bit of a catch-all, with a very broad definition as beingthat part of the population living with 2to 20 US dollars (USD) a day theirdesire to consume is not always veryecological or sustainable, to use thefashionable term: car, air-conditioning,waste production. The lifestyle of urban

F. P

arg

ny


middle managers is resolutely based onconsumption. We should therefore notethat African cities, which have hithertocaused little pollution by world stan-dards, are likely to become more pollu-ting, unless we see a technological gene-rational leap as we have seen in thetelecommunications sector.

Challenges for everyoneAfricas cities are therefore a challengefor everyone. For the citizen, first of all,who must learn urban living, living in acommunity with rules governing housing,transport and sanitation. This urbanliving should encourage some youngpeople to train in dealing with urban pro-blems: in Mali, according to the NGOUrbaniste sans Frontires, there areonly 17 town planners in the wholecountry! For the central authorities,secondly, who have the difficult task ofplanning and delegating. The entirestructural organization of the countryneeds to be overhauled to achieve themaximum effect from any action carriedout in the cities by funding agencies orcompanies. Companies, too, must constantly re-appraise their performance and theiroffer of goods and services in order tobe ever more accessible to a demanding,well-informed population with spendingpower that is on the increase but is stilllimited. In addition, and curiously, tech-nical proposals need to be examined onan individual basis as the latest techno-logies are not always those best adap-ted to the context of African cities. Sothe African cities of the future require aleap of imagination. Africa needs to pre-pare for urban configurations that arevery different from the traditional ideasthat see cities as urban areas with clearlydefined boundaries, governed by a singlemunicipal authority, warns the UNHuman Settlements programme.CIANs 2016 Africa Report opens withsome of the aspects of these new urbanissues to which the French touch canhelp to contribute some original solu-tions.

Survey carried out by Bndicte Chtel and Anne Guillaume-Gentil,

Commodafrica

(1) The UN Human Settlements programme,

The State of the African cities 2014

Evolution of the population in the 10 largest African cities (in thousands)

Sourc

e:

UN

-Hab

itat, T

he S

tate

of

Afr

ican C

itie

s 2

01

4, p. 2

5

Lagos

Cairo

Kinshasa

Khartoum

Abidjan

Dar esSalaam

Johannesburg

Nairobi

Kano

Cape Town

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015proj.

2020proj.

2025proj.

1,925

1,8612,0952,3392,6022,895

3,2713,902

4,7485,724

1,0901,380

1,7552,214

2,6773,237

3,9584,939

6,143

1,7731,898

2,2652,732

3,2723,763

4,1144,421

4,732

1,0461,316

1,6682,116

2,6833,415

4,3955,677

7,276

1,7162,102

2,5353,028

3,5454,151

4,9235,896

6,971

1,6112,360

3,0883,505

3,9794,516

5,1616,028

7,090

2,7223,520

4,4935,414

6,7668,415

10,31212,322

14,535

8,3289,061

9,70710,170

10,56511,031

11,94413,254

14,740

3,5004,764

5,9837,281

8,85910,788

13,12115,825

18,857

2,1552,394

2,7153,100

3,4923,8104,096

4,388

Chantr

ieux


INTRODUCTION

Le Moci. As each Africits show has

taken place, what changes have you

seen in peoples approach to unders-

tanding African cities?

Jean-Pierre Elong Mbassi. When westarted Africits in 1998, urban deve-lopment in Africa was around 25 to 30%.Were now around 40% and in 2030were due to go over 50%. The changehas been accompanied by great pres-sure from the populations to improvelocal management. In 1998, the question was to know howthe local authorities, which manage theday-to-day lives of their inhabitants, couldearn the right to express their views, beconsulted and take initiatives so that localpopulations could be included in natio-nal and continental policies. There wereonly 10 local authority associations onthe continent; today there are 40. Wehave seen the rise in decentralization poli-cies: local authorities have been givenadministrative and financial autonomy tomanage peoples day-to-day lives on acontinuous basis. This is a major changeas public authority now has two faces:one national and one local.We wanted this decentralization to beirreversible. In Malabo in June 2014, theheads of state and government and theAfrican Union adopted the Charter ofvalues and guidelines for governmentdecentralization and local development.This will be the AUs legal instrumentwhen it is signed and ratified by 15 coun-tries; at the moment, only Mauritania andGuinea Bissau have signed it. So wevejust embarked on a powerful ratificationcampaign.

Le Moci. Are there any special features

to decentralization in Africa?

J-P. E. M. Theres a demand for localmanagement thats increasing with urban

An interview with Jean-Pierre Elong Mbassi

Theres a demand for local management thats increasing with urban developmentJean-Pierre Elong Mbassi, secretary-general of Cits et gouvernements locaux unisdAfrique (Cities and local governments of Africa united - CGLU-A) and chairman of theAfricits show, believes that answers to the challenges of urban development will befound through responsible decentralization.

development. And you know that everytime this demand is not satisfied, theresa great risk that people will fall back intoan introverted assertion of identity andinto violence. What has happened in Nor-thern Mali can be partly explained by thisproblem. There are movements in at least27 countries demanding to be more clo-sely associated with the management oflocal affairs.

Le Moci. What are the main challenges

and what innovative solutions are

emerging?

J-P. E. M. People initially felt that citiesshould be like those they are familiar within the West. Living in districts that looklike African villages would not be living inthe city. We realized that this European-style city represented only 10 to 20% ofthe city. The rest is an African city thatgrows by adding buildings in accordancewith a village-type pattern of occupation.We use the terms informal housing,informal district and informal economyfor what represents 80% of the city andits economic activity. The big question isto know whether the Africans, citizensand decision-makers, will accept that Afri-can cities are real cities and not just apoor copy of European cities.The way in which we go about planningour cities will depend on this accep-tance. Planning means organizing spaceaccording to a vision of the role we wantour cities to play. We know that our citiesare going to triple their population andsurface area over the next 20 years. Sowe can plan them even if we dontalways have the means to carry out ourplans: we can set aside the land to becovered by future roads so that peoplecan move in, in an orderly fashion, andhave at least some idea of how the landwill be used.

Le Moci. Can you give some examples

of successful urban development

management in Africa?

J-P. E. M. Ethiopia is one of the leasturbanized countries in Africa, at around30%. But Ethiopia is currently buildingits entire economic transformation around urban development management,land use planning and property develop-ment programmes. Another example isMorocco, which has a long urban tradi-tion and is setting up the Living withoutshanty towns programme: the aim is torestructure so-called informal housingand provide it with minimum facilities thatare installed in a systematic fashion.

Le Moci. Do you think that companies

are offering an adequate response to

the challenges of urban development?

J-P. E. M. The population of Africas citieswill double between now and 2050:there will be 1.3 billion city-dwellers. Atthe same time, Europe will have 400 mil-lion inhabitants. Urban Africa will be 3 times Europe, with 300 to 400 millionpeople with spending power similar tothat of the average French person. Thatswhere things are going to happen. A lotof people will come were seeing italready and offer innovative solutions.Because the solutions cant be a carboncopy of whats happening elsewhere.How can you install a Parisian-stylesewerage system in a city like Kinshasawhich covers an area the size of theLebanon? Well have to innovate.These innovative solutions requiredecentralized solutions, which are lessexpensive and easy to implement. Thisis one of the ways of tackling the manyissues linked to the development ofAfricas cities.

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There is not really a French-style urbanconcept behind which Frances variousorganizations and companies line up inbattle formation to go out and accom-pany and conquer the markets derivedfrom Africas rapid urban development. We intervene more in terms of localissues and needs expressed by the citiesrather than the idea of a city concept,says Nicole Madariaga, an economist inthe French Development Agencys (FDA)Local Authorities and Urban Develop-ment division. In Latin America, the chal-lenge for the FDA and this is its man-date is to intervene for greener, moremutually-supportive growth. In sub-Saha-ran Africa, the FDAs priority interventionzone, the emphasis is placed on sustai-nable development, peace and securityin the region.

Indispensable planning Territories are complex in Africa. Depen-ding on the size of the cities, youll findsome quite old, structured districts,recent formal or informal urban develop-ment and trends towards an urban sprawlspreading towards the desert or coast-line, often to the detriment of agriculturalland. And we try to achieve an unders-tanding of the whole, says the FDA. To do this, the French plan and draw up ablueprint. France is not the only countryto do this, even though planning is deeplyrooted into its culture. Others use itwidely, such as Japan, through its JICAcooperation agency, which is currentlyheavily involved in issues relating to Afri-can cities: in 2014, it even undertook arevision of the urban plan for Dakar. In Addis-Ababa, we accompanied theestablishment of the blueprint and wor-ked with the city council on both a phy-sical and a strategic plan. That led to aclarification of property rights, intendeduses and structuring projects such as thefirst bus service using separate lanes,more efficient waste management tobuild up a network between the rag col-

Finding the right contactsand designing cities

lectors, recycling and the final landfill site,says Pierre-Arnaud Barthel, project lea-der for the above-mentioned FDA divi-sion.

Secondary cities upgradingProject management capacity oftenneeds to be reinforced in Africa in orderto run and oversee projects, as the citycouncils rarely have all the technical andadministrative expertise; they are dele-gated little authority or borrowing capa-city, notes Maggie Cazal, chairman andfounder of Urbanistes sans Frontires.Apart from a few rare projects such asDakar, Addis-Ababa, Nairobi and a fewcities in Morocco and South Africa, someof which have solid tax resources oftenlinked to the property boom, the funding

agencies rarely lend directly to the cities,capitals or secondary cities. There arealso expertise problems and political pro-blems too. And yet, as the recipients of a frantic ruralexodus, and as the barometer of demo-cracy and often cost-effective as aresult of strong local links secondarycities are beginning to attract attentionfrom the World Bank, UN Human Settle-ments programme and the FDA, whichfinanced its first direct project in 2011.In 2014, it allocated 125 million EUR tourban development for secondary cities inCameroon and 20 million EUR for drin-king water supplies in Ethiopia. The French city contract concept fits inwell with this idea of urban projects car-ried out under a contract between thegovernment, the regional authority andother partners (funding agencies orothers). But here, too, expertise and deci-sion-making authority, i.e. real decentrali-zation, are essential.The Chinese talk directly to the govern-ment, not to the local authorities, offeringan investment-project approach ratherthan a global approach to the city. Chinaalso works more on new city projectsrather than trying to re-develop existingcities. It trains people on the spot, butoften for precise projects. Beijing is thechampion of tied aid, thereby offering itscompanies rapidly-growing markets.

Strategic planning is central to the development of cities. In order to plan, you need exper-tise and contacts with decision-making authority. What can French companies offer?

CONCEPTUALIZING THE CITIES OF THE FUTURE

Over the last 10 years the NGO Urbanistes sans Frontires (Urban developerswithout borders) has been working on informal districts and climate change, trainingand informing inhabitants and local authorities and drawing up blueprints and pro-jects with volunteer town planners. The NGO is organizing an international confe-rence and African meeting, Town planning and sustainable development, inBamako from 16 to 19 May 2016, with the town hall and government, with theaim of incorporating climate risks into the design and development of cities and therestructuring of shanty towns and informal districts: treating and recovering rain-water, managing sanitation systems ecologically, putting emergency work to pro-tect against flooding on the agenda, etc.

Urban development and climate risks

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Le Moci. Do we need to design African

cities differently from those on other

continents?

Armelle Choplin. Yes and no. No,because we find urban trends similar tothose in Latin America and Asia. Yes,because some African cities are develo-ping rapidly: everything is to be built andinnovated in these cities, which are in themidst of an economic and demographicboom. Were not talking about one Africa,but several Africas: Cotonou is close toLagos, but the trends are very different.

Le Moci. What are the main challenges

for Africas cities?

A. C. One of the biggest challenges ishousing. We need to house this growingurban population and also the newco-mers. Then there are the new middleclasses, those thousands of people whoare starting to demand urban services:housing, electricity, energy, health andeducation. These middle classes are verywide-ranging because they start at 2 euros a day. They ask for simple thingslike air-conditioning, motor vehicles, etc.Their needs are not in tune with the sus-tainable city model of the future. Theyhave no intention of following the ins-tructions issued by the countries of theNorth. It has long been said that Africascities were ecological in that they consu-med little energy. But in the future, thesecities will be big energy consumers.Theres also the planning issue: how dowe anticipate the future development ofthese cities? We need to train urbanexperts, but there are very few dedicatedschools in Africa. In Lom, the African

School of Architecture and Town Plan-ning (EAMAU) operates throughout WestAfrica. There are also universities in theEnglish-speaking countries, such asNigeria and Ghana. But some countrieshave only a handful of town planners andarchitects. Some city council technicaldirectors have had little or no training.

Le Moci. Does French thinking offer

anything innovative to the challenges

of urban development?

A. C. Today, a fair proportion of the urbandevelopment models are linked to theinfluence of the World Bank. France is incompetition with other funding partnersand ways of building cities. There is aconsiderable amount of Japanese coope-ration in Africas cities, and the Germansare there too. By deciding to invest less incooperation, France has clearly reducedits influence: the JICA (Japanese coope-ration) is producing blueprints for Dakar,Nouakchott and Abidjan. It often bringsin its own companies to finance the studyand the subsequent developments.

Le Moci. Does that mean that French

companies have been overtaken by

their competitors?

A. C. No, because the French companies

are highly competitive and quite often winthese contracts, particularly in the trans-port, utilities and Building/Public Workssectors. Things are more difficult in thefield of cooperation policy.

Le Moci. Is the debate beginning to

turn towards Africas secondary cities?

A. C. The UN Human Settlements pro-gramme and the World Bank are nowstarting to take an interest in the secon-dary cities. Although less in the limelight,these cities are home to most of Africascity-dwellers.

Le Moci. Is Africa a laboratory once

again?

A. C. Africas cities are laboratories in theircurrent form! Were seeing urban trendsthat weve never seen before: for exam-ple, were seeing vast urban corridorsalong the Gulf of Guinea, while, at theopposite end of the scale, some townswith over 20,000 inhabitants still have vil-lage status. As for the suburbs, weregenerally faced with the dormitory townissue, with all its related transport pro-blems. The populations, particularly theyounger people, have very urban lifestyles:they leave their suburb early in the mor-ning to go and work in the city centre andcome home late in the evening. They maytake up to 3 hours to get to work in themorning and 3 hours to come home in theevening. So, setting up new developmentprojects is very much like a laboratory.This is why its difficult to train people,because were asking experts from theNorth to go and train people in the Southin urban methods and forms that we knownothing about in Europe. We need to des-ign cities differently, using alternativemethods and more flexible blueprints thatcan evolve from year to year. We need toinnovate in terms of tools and land tenure,which is a crucial issue.

CONCEPTUALIZING THE CITIES OF THE FUTURE

An interview with Armelle Choplin

As they are today, Africas cities are laboratoriesHousing, planning, transport. The African city, especially the secondary city, is a real labo-ratory in which we need to find tailor-made solutions, says Armelle Choplin, lecturer in geo-graphy at the University of Paris (Paris Est-Marne-la-Valle) and a specialist in African cities.

By deciding to invest less in cooperation,France has clearly reduced its influence

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Le Moci. What is a French-style sus-

tainable city? Is it an innovative

concept?

Michle Pappalardo. I dont think theresa definition for the French-style sustai-nable city; were working more on theapproach to this concept, which is orga-nized around a four-point strategy.First of all, weve put people at the centreof the project, with the aim of improvingliving conditions for the inhabitants. Theprimary aim for our sustainable city isnot to be green or smart, but to be aplace in which the inhabitants live well interms of health, mobility, economic acti-vity, etc. The city should be attractive and its therole of elected representatives to workon this. Secondly, the city should be fru-gal in its use of natural resources. Wedont waste anything, we manage wasteefficiently, we save on energy, land, water,etc.To achieve these two primary objectives,we need a third: strong, transverse, par-ticipative governance. The importancethat we place on this issue often sets usapart from other approaches. Strong,because we need to have the ability towork over the long term, obtain funding,introduce standards and check them.Transverse, because the idea of perfor-mance in-volves integrating the citysvarious functions: we think about mobi-lity at the same time as buildings, andabout waste at the same time as energy.Participative, because nothing works if

the inhabitants dont take part in theurban project itself.

Le Moci. Can this approach be applied

in every foreign region?

M. P. The fourth characteristic is thattheres no model. Everything needs to beadapted to the geographical context, theclimate and the culture. Thats whytheres no definition of the sustainablecity; its an approach: we first of all takean interest in the inhabitants then wework on governance because a city isabout elected representatives, a territory,inhabitants and an ecosystem. To bringall that together as harmoniously and

effectively as possible, we look at thepast, the terrain, the climate, etc.

Le Moci. How do the smaller compa-

nies manage to apply this approach?

M. P. First of all, theyre not afraid of goingabroad and our task is to accompanythem as a group, by bringing the public(Ministry, FDA, etc.) and private stake-holders together. This reassures compa-nies and allows them to immediatelyopen up a high-level dialogue. We orga-nized a forum in the Ivory Coast this year,which was opened by the Ivorian minis-ters concerned and senior elected repre-sentatives who explained their needs. Wethen ran workshops that were attendedby elected representatives, Ivorian mana-gers and French companies. They wereable to talk, make suggestions and worktogether.Thats where Vivapolis is of interest. Onthe one hand, we have the ability toexplain what a French-style sustainablecity is and how we work, while on theother we offer our ability to exchangeideas, organize meetings and followthings through with, for example, Francesexternal trade advisors.

Le Moci. What types of projects have

you identified?

M. P. At the Forum, for example, themayor of the Plateau district in Abidjancame to present his ambitious renova-tion programme. Links are being forgedbetween French companies such asBouygues, architects, the FDA, etc. Dis-cussions have also taken place concer-ning other very dynamic Ivorian citiessuch as Bouak. Now its up to thecompanies to do their work. Theresnothing we can do if they dont come

NEW URBAN MARKETS

An interview with Michle Pappalardo

Everything needs to be adaptedto the geographical context, the climate and the culture

Living better in the city is the slogan used by Vivapolis, the umbrella trademark for thenetwork of French public and private operators in a range of disciplines and professionswho, two years ago, opted for a united commercial approach to international trade in orderto conquer markets and promote the French-style sustainable city through turn-keyoffers. Below, an interview with its coordinator, Michle Pappalardo.

Now its up to the companies to do their work

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up with some good responses to theinvitations to tender. But I have confi-dence in them!

Le Moci. Lets take the example of the

Ivory Coast: where has your French-

style sustainable city approach chan-

ged the outlines of a project?

M. P. I dont ask the question that way.Were not trying to sell a product or cre-dit ourselves with the success of a pro-ject. Our primary aim is to make life easierfor French companies and for the foreignpartner. In cities, you come across pro-blems with water, traffic, waste, buildings,etc. If you want to meet French operatorson these matters, youre faced with a vastnumber of companies and public stake-holders. Providing a single contact, Viva-polis can introduce you to a range ofpublic and private operators that arrivewanting to know what you want. and thattry to provide answers. This is a majorfactor in making life simpler for ourforeign interlocutors.Also, with our French-style sustainablecity approach and the characteristics thatIve just mentioned, we can give our inter-locutors an idea of the spirit in which wework.The innovation not an especially Frenchone in the way in which we think aboutcities today is the place given to the inte-gration factor. Certainly, well settle alagoon pollution problem first, then awaste problem, then a traffic one. Wellsettle them separately but with a globalview of the city; we need to deal witheach problem by being aware of theconse-quences for the other aspects ofthe city.Thats integration: the search for globalcoherence. Were not talking about greattheories or, necessarily, the latest tech-nological innovations. Its simply a way ofdoing things and our interlocutors arevery keen to buy into organizational andplanning components that follow thisapproach. Obviously, the digital techno-logies are very useful in facilitating thisintegra-tion and thats a strong compo-nent of our offer.

Le Moci. Do other countries have a

similar approach?

M. P. A group and consultation-basedapproach? I havent come across oneyet. Its no doubt something to do withour special French character: we have alot of companies. In Germany, the bigcompanies arrive with the small ones. TheAnglo-Saxons have some very big engi-neering companies and the others followin their wake.We have a lot of large companies and alot of small ones, which means that wehave to work together. We also have alot of large companies that are amongthe world leaders in their field Veolia,Suez, EDF, ENGIE, Schneider, Alstom,etc. They need this joint approach inorder to get there together. Otherwisetheyd be competing with each other.

Le Moci. When a small company joins

Vivapolis, is it a sort of guarantee for

your interlocutors?

M. P. No, we simply bring people alongand put them in touch with potentialclients. We have no responsibility forwhat the companies do afterwards. Viva-polis isnt a label or an association: its anetwork. To become a member, werequire a company to be French, to workon cities and to be looking to workabroad. And we help them do it.

Le Moci. Vivapolis is two years old.

What does Africa represent as a pro-

portion of your activities?

M. P. Its not a very big proportion at themoment but that will change. Weve beenoperating in Morocco and organized theforum in the Ivory Coast in July 2015. Butweve also spent a lot of time in Chinaand the Emirates. Were now also wor-king in Singapore, Indonesia and Mexico,particularly after the Mexican presidents

visit to France last July. We go wherecompanies ask us to go, and whereopportunities come up.

Le Moci. Does membership of CIAN

give companies a helping hand in

Africa?

M. P. Yes, Im sure it does. A lot of Frenchcompanies go to Africa, but to very dif-ferent countries. CIAN will help us drawup the priorities.

Le Moci. With the influx of refugees

into Europe, is there a political will

prompting you to focus on cities in

countries close to Europe, including in

Africa?

M. P. No, our member companies guidethe work we do. But Africa is in themidst of demographic and economicdevelopment, with cities springing upeverywhere. Its an obvious target forFrench companies that have an interestin cities. We dont need political incen-tives.

Le Moci. But your distinctive feature is

that you bring public and private sta-

keholders together?

M. P. Yes indeed. But the public stake-holders know full well that they wont beable to persuade companies to go wherethey dont want to go. No one is givingorders or instructions. Vivapolis is a net-work of stakeholders, so the aim is tomake sure that they are as competitiveas possible and listened to as much aspossible. Our job is to persuade peopleof the desirability of working with theseFrench companies on a French-style, pre-dominantly human sustainable cityapproach. When you attend colloquiums at themoment, everyones talking about smart,low carbon and green cities. Thatsfine, but where do people fit into all that?The primary question is to know whetheror not you can live well in the cities andthe inhabitants and elected representa-tives are fully aware of this: so are ourforeign interlocutors.

We simply bring people along and putthem in touch with potential clients

Our member companies guide the work we do


We estimate that three-quarters of theinhabitants of Africas large cities haveaccess to a water supply, but the reality isthat less than a third have access to aservice that you could call modern, i.e. aconnection to the home. Most inhabitantshave access to water via a public waterfountain or a retailer/carrier who buys thewater, transports it and redistributes it,explained Bruno Valfrey, Managing Direc-tor of Hydroconseil (see photo). Thesituation is even more critical for sanita-tion, he continued. In most Africancities, only a few percent of inhabitantshave access to a collective system, i.e. asewerage system. The vast majority uselatrines or shared facilities. The latrinesare emptied by trucks but theres oftenno facility for properly treating this was-tewater, which is often discharged intothe natural environment.Patrice Fonlladosa, Director Africa at Veo-lia, believes that sanitation is second onlyto energy as the major project for urbanand suburban areas. And yet it onlyattracts a low level of attention from thefunding agencies, which are all focusedon water, todays fashionable theme. Itsfine to provide a water supply. But whenyou provide and distribute it, if you havent got the infrastructures requiredto disperse and carry away its effluents,youre just another polluter! Obviously,

Sanitation: a profitable market, although not politically sexy

drainage pipes and treatment centresarent an electoral argument or somethingyou can inaugurate with great cere-monyHowever, since International SanitationYear in 2008, the subject has become apriority for the funding agencies theWorld Bank with some highly innovativefinancial instruments, the EuropeanUnion, the African Development Bank,the Islamic Development Bank, the FDAand the British CDC.French companies are among the leadersin these sectors and face little competi-tion. But ambitious local political deci-sions are needed to achieve the requiredresults, as sanitation requires majorinvestment, a change in the methodsused by public companies and some diffi-

cult negotiations in areas such as landownership. Large parts of Africas citiesare informal, with no street names andno title deeds. To set up a sewerage sys-tem, you need to be able to lay pipes,said Bruno Valfrey. Hence the decisionby Hydroconseil, which specializes in in-formal urban areas, to build small sys-tems that are easy to size, finance andmaintain.But the technical aspect is only one partof the problem. With drinking water, peo-ple know what a tap is and what its usedfor. With sanitation, theres simply a lotof work to be done to provide informa-tion and hygiene education. Hydrocon-seils teams therefore include not justengineers, economists and financiers butalso social sciences specialists who drawup communication and information cam-paigns.Other aspects include the question ofpayment for the service. The challenge inAfricas cities is to provide a water andsanitation service for less than a dollarper cubic metre all in, 3 to 5 times lessthat in Europes major cities. Most of thewater and sanitation companies in Africaare public and poorly managed. We needto help them become more capable oflowering their costs and becoming via-ble by offering a better service to as manypeople as possible, said the expert.

While water is a politically profitable subject, issues linked to waste and latrines, are muchless so. However, these issues are fundamental in cities in terms of public health and theenvironment.

NEW URBAN MARKETS

At the embryonic stage ten years ago and still in its infancytoday, the environment is gradually becoming a concern forAfrica and therefore a business for companies. A study pre-sented in May 2015 by the French environment and energymanagement agency ADEME concerning the involvement ofFrench eco-companies in the 450 international invitations totender in sub-Saharan Africa showed that water and sanita-tion topped the list (40%), followed by energy (29%), theenvironment and waste (19%), agriculture (7%) and the cli-mate (5%). In terms of the number of invitations to tender,

Kenya came first (50 out of 450), then South Africa (24) fol-lowed by Mali, Senegal, Tanzania, Burkina Faso and DRCongo. French companies were relatively well placed with abroad, diversified and technically sound offer, but often ratherweak in terms of the management of project monitoring, saidCcile Carlier from Onudi and Emmanuel Bentejac from Arte-lia, quoted by Environnement Magazine. These French eco-companies are also too often confined to Francophone Africa,whereas the greatest need is most often expressed in Kenyaand Tanzania.

Water and sanitation top the list of invitations to tender

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NEW URBAN MARKETS

Housing in Africas large cities is beco-ming a real problem. Luanda, NDjamena,Libreville, Kinshasa, Lagos, Brazzaville,Dakar, Bamako and Conakry are nowamong the most expensive capitals in theworld! From the new arrival from the countrysidewith limited experience of housing in thecity to the young manager looking tohouse his family, were seeing a realexplosion in demand while, at the sametime, property developers are looking toprofit from the windfall, often stimulatedby a diaspora investing in property.Faced with this situation, the question ofurban housing seems to have somewhatby-passed a certain number of Frenchoperators who could well be involved.The FDA doesnt see it as a priority tofinance cities or new housing fromscratch, said Pierre-Arnaud Barthel fromthe FDA. As in Johannesburg, weaccompany private, public or semi-publicoperators who are renovating their low-cost or social housing stock and testingeco-construction systems. We also tar-get the upgrading (urban services andsupport for local economic development)of poor districts, as in Cairo and Nairobi.In Johannesburg but this is a very spe-cific project the FDA has helped a pri-vate operator renovate a building thatwas being squatted and is now givenover to social housing. Bouygues is still at the discussion stage.Were thinking about global urbanconcepts but dont yet have any refe-rences or feedback. We have a sustai-nable district or eco-district offer and aninnovative building concept that we callABC Autonomous Building Concept which were developing for GrenobleCouncil. They could be adapted to deve-loping countries where theres a lack ofenergy, because these buildings aretotally autonomous in terms of water,energy and waste optimization, explai-ned Mathieu Carr from the groups com-muni-cation department. For the Archi-tectes franais lexport (Afex), its not a

Housing: a policy in difficulty

priority. Within the framework of urbandevelopment, I think that housing is not agreat issue as long as you already have agood urban development plan. Becauseyou can always build if you have controlover the land and the infrastructures thatmake up the city. We dont have a hou-sing model, said its chairman, FranoisRoux.

More active involvement in thesegment including makeshifthousing and shanty townsOperators are much more involved in thespecific but very broad segment thatincludes make-shift housing and shantytowns, no doubt because thats wherethe funding agencies are active. But tar-gets are not always achieved. Social housing programmes are setup using funding methods arranged bysomewhat opaque public-private part-nerships, which are considered neces-sary because governments have limited

investment capacity but are made possi-ble by the large number of investors, of-ten from the emerging countries. In thiscase, despite the initial intention, very little housing is produced for the poorpopulations: it is mostly for first-timebuyers and requires a salaried job and abank loan; this automatically excludes themajority of city-dwellers who are living onoften irregular incomes from informal acti-vities and do not have access to a bank,said researchers Armelle Choplin, Alexan-dra Biehler and Marie Morelle. But noteverything is negative. Morocco offers an enlightening example.Firstly, there was a clear political will: in2001, access to decent housing wasdeclared a national priority. Following onfrom this, the Action Programme for theClearance of Unsanitary Housing(PRAHI) was launched, then, in 2004,the Cities without Shanty Towns pro-gramme. The aim was to integrate thepoorer districts into the urban fabric. Witha grant from the FDA (15 million EUR)and the city contract concept (seeabove, chapter 1 article 3, The urbanconcept), a joint Government and citycouncil initiative was used to develop aterritorial approach rather than a projectapproach. And with success: today, 52of Moroccos 85 cities have been decla-red Shantytown-free cities.

In the housing sector, priority is generally given to the poorest sector of the population livingin Africas shanty towns, no doubt to the detriment of those who are looking for affordablehousing.

() North Africas youth criticized the public authorities for not having anticipatedthe propensity to form urban households combined with the disproportionate number of young people in the age pyramid. A serious shortage of low-rent housingunits has prevented many young people from marrying and starting a family. Whichmeans that young people generally continue to live with their parents until a relati-vely advanced age. In light of the way in which prenuptial relations are traditionallyconsidered in North Africa, it could be said that the Arab Spring came about notjust as a result of a lack of political participation; it was also rooted in a frustrationof a much more socio-personal kind.Extract from the UN Human Settlements Programme report, The State of AfricasCities 2014, p. 32

Housing and the Arab Spring

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NEW URBAN MARKETS

It is estimated that 50 to 80% of jour-neys in most African cities are made onfoot. But given the demographic growthin the cities and the increasing urbansprawl, this means a lot of people wal-king for hours on often non-existent pave-ments! Fatigue, wasted time and inse-curity are just some of the directconsequences. In addition, there has been a hugeincrease in the use of 2 and 4 wheelmotorized transport as a result of greaterspending power, the rise of the middleclasses and, once again, the constantlyexpanding boundaries of the cities. Col-lective taxis and minibuses sometimestake up to 20 people on board andmotorbikes responsible for over halfthe CO emissions in Benin often carrytwo, three or even more passengers aswell as goods.

Is it because of the SRU Law, in 2000,which forced conurbations in France withover 100,000 inhabitants to draw up anUrban Mobility Plan (PDU) that Frenchcompanies are particularly competitivein this segment in Africa, offering highlyinnovative concepts? It may well be thecase, but they are certainly involved inlarge-scale projects, particularly thoselinked to rail solutions.Systra, an engineering subsidiary ofSNCF and RATP, won the contract toupdate Casa-blancas transport plan anddelivered a tramway in July 2015. Itsnow the French operators task toconquer the 85% of Casablancans whohave not used public transport up to now.The French group is also working on the

Transport and energy: ambitious projects

future underground system for Medina.Without doubt, when it comes to urbanAfrica, and especially Lagos, Kinshasa,Dakar and Abidjan, the French group willlearn a number of lessons from theWorld Banks Global Environment Faci-lity contract, which it also won in July2015, to reduce vehicle congestion inChinas large cities.Alstom is set to supply 600 suburbantrains to South Africa by 2024 (4 billionEUR) the trains are to be built in thecountry while Bollor delivered its all-electric Bluebuses in 2014 to serve theUniversity of Yaound.Bouygues has also been busy. It produ-ced the Gautrain in 2011, the fastestand most modern train (100 mph) on theAfrican continent, linking Johannesburg

Airport to the city centre. Cairo also usedthe French company for its undergroundsystem and its extension to the airport.More recently, in 2014, it built Abidjansthird (toll) bridge, a revolution for the cityin which the number of cars has risenfrom 100,000 to nearly 300,000 in 20years with little change to its road sys-tem. However, there still remains the problemof spending power: many city-dwellersdo not have the means to pay a toll orbuy transport tickets on a regular basis.

In the transport and energy sector, the large French groups have won some major contractsin Africas urban environments, offering a range of innovations. Whats the recipe for thissuccess?

On 8 October 2015, the Bollor Group launched its second Bluezone in Cona-kry. Following on from the Kaloum district in 2014, it was the turn of Dixinn, inthe heart of Guineas capital, to take delivery of this 1.6 ha of living space, whichis totally energy-independent as a result of its photovoltaic panels coupled withLMP batteries designed by Blue Solutions, a Bollor subsidiary. It produces,stores and continuously supplies clean, free, inexhaustible electricity and pro-vides the Bluezone with a Wi-Fi network and a drinking water supply. The complexincludes sports and cultural facilities and a company incubator for start-ups insectors such as the new technologies, the environment and sustainable deve-lopment.

French companies with bright ideas

Competitive when it comes to rail solutions

The Casablanca tramway

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ATp

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aubouss

in


The urban population issensitive to advertising incities because it has grea-ter spending power thanthe rural areas. This urbanmiddle class is also sensi-tive to anything thats inno-vative, modern and new,said Isabelle Aimonetti,chairman of AG Partners, inwhich Publicis Africa has aminority holding. The demand is there,greater than ever, but the offer appearsvague to our French professionals. Youcan now see cities disfigured by adverti-sing boards which dont provide much ofa return because theyre often placedhaphazardly. Theyre built up over time,and everyone has his little billboardbecause he has a contact or is enterpri-sing. Unfortunately, we can see that itsnot a virtuous system, said Jean-Sbas-tien Decaux, Managing Director Africa ofJCDecaux (see photo). A virtuous system? For whom? The advertising board market in Africa ismainly in the hands of local companies,often operating in a closed market. InSenegal, for example, three local firmsshare the market and are protected bylaw. There is relatively little internationalcompetition. In the Anglo-Saxon marketswe find the British WPP and the SouthAfrican Global Outdoor, which is wellestablished even in Francophone Africawith its big billboards; it was the first com-

Communication and street furniture: the billboard jungle

pany, 15 years ago, to install trivisions (rotatingboards). The South African Conti-nental Outdoor was boughtout in June 2015 by JCDe-caux; Publicis has acquireda minority holding in AGPartenaires, the only Frenchgroup present in Africasince the 90s.

So what can be done? Perhaps follow anexample. Lagos, Cape Town and Kigaliare administered in the noble sense of theterm. There are regulations, guidelinesand a clear political will (Lagos), some-times rather collegiate as in Kigali: the cityis welcoming because theres an adver-tising system thats beneficial to its shop-keepers, provides services for its citizensand is financially rewarding for the coun-cil. The other cities are still thinking aboutit or are focused on issues other than ours , said Jean-Sbastien Decaux.The stakes are high for the world no. 1.Were active in the Ivory Coast, but werenot operating. As long as there are invi-tations to tender and youre in a sort ofadvertising jungle, you enter the marketby buying billboards because theres nopoint in installing street furniture thatsslightly different amongst this advertisinganarchy! You cant be seen. In its presentstate, the market favours the companiesthat are already established and preventsnew players from getting a foothold.

Thats our main difficulty.Isabelle Aimonetti has a different chal-lenge as AG Partners is already well-esta-blished, with African earnings up by 37 % in 2014. Here, the aim is to cap-ture this new, dynamic clientele by using atried and tested professional approach.We dont try to fire the imagination in theWestern way; we tend to highlight thosemoments in life that appeal to them, sheexplained. A lot of brands use football,which is very popular in Africa. We useallusions, local expressions, fashions forwomen, etc. But we mainly place theemphasis on the pleasure of the mo-ment.

With the increase in population and spending power, the urban advertising market hasbecome strategic. But its not an easy market to break into

NEW URBAN MARKETS

Street furniture needs to be designed specifically for Africa, says the JCDecauxGroup. In Europe, for example, city centres are not so sprawling and there is less needfor furniture than in Africa. In Africa, the use of street furniture and the quality differaccording to whether it is located in the city centre or the suburbs. Should we be offe-ring African users a uniform quality of service across the territory, with the risk that itmight not be as good? The answer is strategic and political.

A double standard in streetfurniture?

ADVERTISING TIPS

In the world of advertising, billboardsare not an aim in themselves, but atactical extension of a campaign thatexists elsewhere. And the elsewherein Africa is television, with all the newpan-African series channels such asNollywood and TV Novelas, whichhave achieved huge success in justtwo years. For example, in the IvoryCoast, they rank third, just behind thetwo national channels, and its Face-book that makes even more buzz thanthe buzz itself. In the intellectual mid-dle class, its RFI, said Isabelle Aimo-netti. The audiences are phenome-nal because people are looking forthe most accurate information. Moreinnovative extensions of advertisingcan be found on hub-caps in Sene-gal or, more traditionally, on the roofsof taxis in the Ivory Coast. As for bill-boards, some specialized care isrequired: for example, as red does notstand up well to UV rays, a coat ofvarnish must be applied to paper pos-ters. Finally, the sky is often greyish-white in Africa: to be more visible, theposter should have a coloured back-ground.

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Public electrification in towns and cities isof particular importance in Africa. Itmeans extra economic growth, greatersecurity and a response to the essentialneeds of city dwellers for whom publiclighting is crucial to their daily lives, asmany of them have no lighting in theirown homes. These challenges led Frances formerEnvironment Minister, Jean-Louis Borloo,to set up an Energy Foundation for Africain March 2015. His aim is to quickly intro-duce a Marshall Plan for Africa so that80% of the continent can be lit within adecade. The projects are already on thetable. The money can be easily found.The only thing thats missing is a globalmeans of support, a sort of EnergyAgency, run by and for Africans, thatmakes up for the weakness of publicauthorities, attracts funding and providesa proportion of subsidies to help launchthe projects, said Jean-Louis Borloo.Some 38 mayors of African capitals andlarge cities met in Paris on 17 April 2015on the invitation of Anne Hidalgo, mayorof Paris and chairman of the Internatio-nal Association of Francophone Mayors(AIMF), and Jean-Louis Borloo. Sixmonths prior to COP 21, they launchedan appeal to the international communityfor sustainable electrification in Africa.Utopic?

Adapted solutions Perhaps not. To be sustainable, urbanlighting sometimes needs to adapt exis-ting techniques rather than using recenttechnologies. That is, at least, the viewof the French company Neo Light, whichhas been working in Dakar since 2011.Contacted by a Senegalese design officewhich was in need of technical expertiseto respond to an invitation to tender, itwon an initial 50,000 euro contract for alighting audit and a second contractworth 300,000 euros to study the instal-lation of 16,000 lighting points in the dis-tricts in Dakar that were not yet lit, all fun-

Public lighting: Africas cities are gradually lighting up

ded by the FDA. Dakar had had an initialdisastrous experience with China, whichhad paid for public lighting along a largesection of the Dakar motorway, but thesystem had lasted for less than 10 years:the lamps rusted, the lamp-posts felldown and the maintenance hatches wereall open and easy to vandalize. This time,Senegal wanted durable, professionalequipment, explained Sylvain Bigot,director of Neo Light. Durable, profes-sional and also inexpensive, because youcant install lamps at 600 euros each asyou do in France. We needed to thinkabout an installation in a very difficult envi-

ronment. Dakar is prone to sea spraysthat are highly corrosive to metal, violentwinds and desert sand. Also, the Senelecnetwork isnt very stable and voltagelevels rise and fall suddenly, which isntgood for any sort of electrical appliancethat is not very heat-resistant. So wecouldnt use the same technology as inEurope: we therefore opted for older, fer-romagnetic technologies. We also hadto use equipment that required little main-tenance as the big problem with publiclighting is that its often poorly maintai-ned. We had to use long-life bulbs, self-cleaning bowls if possible, maintenancehatches placed as high as possible andconcrete posts that couldnt be vandali-zed, said Neo Lights lighting designer. Aseries of challenges that required a lot ofbright ideas.

Thanks to its cities, the map of Africa is gradually becoming studded with points of light.And French companies are adopting a pragmatic approach to the new markets.

NEW URBAN MARKETS

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Public lighting in Dakar

A citys attraction is often judged on its festive and commercial illuminations. And thelack of a reliable energy supply in Africa means that designers have to come upwith some ingenious ideas. Four or five years ago we designed some solar illumi-nations for the European market but with the more widespread use of LED ligh-ting, which consumes very little power, we hardly ever use them. Weve been offe-ring them in Africa over the last two or three years, explained Johan Hugues,Managing Director of Blachre Illumination. The French company has been involvedin Morocco, South Africa and Nigeria, the 2015 African Games in the Congo andthe Abidjan shopping centre for Christmas. While Africa only accounts for 5% of itsearnings at present, demand is growing with the development of shopping centresand new festive urban concepts, and its changing. For example, Ouagadougou isnow investing in decorations that it maintains so that it can re-use them. A god-send for the French company if the idea spreads. In Africa, were often in compe-tition with the Chinese, either directly or via importers, who are often Lebanese,said Johan Hugues. But its not really competition, be-cause we arrive in Africawith the same quality equipment as in France, the same way of working and thesame technology. The Chinese, on the other hand, are offering very cheap equipmentthats thrown away after its been used.

The city of lights


ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BY ZONE AND COUNTRY

AMU

Arab MaghrebUnion

ECOWAS

EconomicCommunity

of West AfricanStates

CEMAC

Economicand MonetaryCommunity

of Central Africa

SADC

Southern Africa

Development Community

AMU

Arab MaghrebUnion

ECOWAS

EconomicCommunity

of West AfricanStates

CEMAC

Economicand MonetaryCommunity

of Central Africa

SADC

Southern Africa

DevelopmentCommunity

Four major economic zones for one continent

AT

LA

NT

IC

O

CE

AN

M E D I T E R R A N E A N

S E A

IN

D

IA

N

OC

EA

N

SI E RRA LEON E

LI BE RIA

SENEG

AL

GU

IN

EA

MA

UR

ITA

N

IA

REP.

OF C

ON

GO

E Q U A T O R I A L

GUINEA

SAO TOM E

& PRI NCI PE

ERITREA

DJ I BOUTI

TU

NIS

IA

ALGERI A

SU DAN

SUDAN

SOU TH

UGAN

DA

Z IMBABWE

LESOTHO

COMOROS

SEYCH E LLES

MA

DA

GA

SC

AR

L I BYA

EGYPT

MO

ZA

MB

IQU

E

SO

MA

LIA

ETH IOPI A

TAN ZAN I A

DEM. REP

OF CONGO

MALI

N IG E R

CHAD

IVORY

COAST

CAPE V E RDE

GAM BI A

GUINEA BISSAU

TOGO

MOROCCO

BU RKI NA

FASO

GH

AN

A

BE

NIN

N IG E RIA

CA

ME

RO

ON

CENTRAL

AFRICAN REPUBLIC

GABONKE NYA

ANGOLA

NAM I BI A

BOTSWANA

SO

UTH

AFR

ICA

MAU RIT IUS

MALAW I

ZAM BI A

RWAN DA

BU RU N DI

SWAZ I LAN D

Chantr

ieux


The 2015 results of the CIAN survey

Investment, profitability, business environment. Every year, CIAN sur-veys the companies operating in Africa to draw up its Barometer of their activities and of the business climate, including testimoniesfrom the field and reference indices for any investors interested inthe continent.

For the 27th CIAN Barometer, companies opera-ting in Africa were once again questioned on arange of topics affecting business developmentand divided into two major parts:

1. the first, cyclical, concerns the companys per-formance and business prospects over a three-year period: earnings, investment, profitability,claims on the Government and claims on local pri-vate industry;

2. the second, more structural, concerns anassessment of the business environment in thecountry examined: 39 criteria spread across sevenmajor headings infrastructures, administration,the economy and finance, social, socio-cultural,input costs and sustainable development.

In 2015, 645 heads of companies or subsidiariesof French groups responded to the survey: 107in North Africa, 268 in West Africa, 110 in CentralAfrica and 160 in Southern and East Africa andthe Indian Ocean (SEAIO).

I/ An assessment of companyactivity 2014-2016 Falling raw material prices, downturn in worldwidegrowth, particularly in China, health crisis, com-plex security environment, elections. Despite themany factors that have undermined growth in theAfrican countries this year, the continent remainsa dynamic market, as can be seen from the Frenchcompanies established there.

Over the 2014 financial year, more than half ofthem recorded higher revenues and forecasts for2016 are encouraging, with 58% predicting anincrease in revenues. North Africa comes top ofthe table for this indicator with 68% of compa-nies surveyed predicting an increase in revenuesin 2016. Among the most dynamic countries in which morethan two-thirds of companies are predicting an

increase in revenues in 2016 are Egypt (100%),Morocco (94%), Nigeria (76%), South Africa (86%), Mauritius (83%), Tanzania (78%) and Zambia (80%). The situation is less flourishing inMauritania, Tunisia, Angola and Equatorial Gui-nea, where 100%, 73%, 86% and 75% respecti-vely of those surveyed predicted stable or fallingrevenues in 2016.

Investment is stable on the continent, after a slightcontraction in 2015 with 43% of companieshaving increased their investment compared to46% in 2014; 51% are planning extra investmentin 2016. SEAIO is the region in which companiesare investing most: from 51% in 2014, nearly60% are expecting to increase their investmentin the region in 2016. In Djibouti, Ethiopia, Mozam-bique, Tanzania and Mauritius, over 65% of com-panies questioned are planning to invest in thecoming year. Outside SEAIO, we note Senegalwith 63% and Egypt with 89% of investmentintentions in 2016.

This increase in investment is explained in parti-cular by a level of profitability that is high andquickly achieved in Africa. This has been confir-med again this year: while 28% of companiesrecorded losses in 2014, only 11% are expectedto do so in 2016. In 2015, 78% of those surveyedmade a profit or broke even. Unlike last year, when the largest number of com-panies making a profit were to be found in CentralAfrica, SEAIO has taken the lead, with 71% ofcompanies making a profit or breaking even in2014, 82% in 2015 and 91% for 2016. For exam-ple, in Gabon, the percentage of companiesmaking a profit was 53% of those surveyed in2014 but is down to 32% in the 2016 forecasts,while we see the reverse in Kenya, with 42% in2014 and 75% for 2016.

Debt and payment arrears (local public and pri-vate sectors together) remain globally containedon the continent with only 23% of those surveyed


ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BY ZONE AND COUNTRY

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

46 28 26

58 32 10

50 22 28

38 50 12

38 50 12

38 46 16

20 72 8

12 72 16

14 62 24

46 36 18

52 28 20

52 26 22

64 18 18

56 14 30

68 14 18

Global trend in profit (%)

Profit Balanced Loss

Government's outstanding liabilities (%)

Global trend in turnover (%)

Global trend in investment (%)

Level of debt in the local private sector (%)

Low Normal High

Low Normal High

Recovery DeteriorationStagnation


2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

45 36 19

57 34 9

44 29 26

48 29 23

45 35 20

45 31 24

17 66 17

16 74 10

17 67 16

42 39 19

38 44 18

47 39 14

45 32 23

49 37 14

59 37 4







Low Normal High

Low Normal High



2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

46 32 22

55 34 11

47 25 28

43 33 24

41 35 24

42 32 26

21 62 17

20 67 13

21 60 19

46 35 19

43 37 20

51 30 19

50 26 23

49 30 21

58 31 11







Low Normal High

Low Normal High



NorthAfrica

WestAfrica

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

41 26 33

44 39 17

53 16 31

44 14 42

46 12 42

45 11 44

28 46 26

30 49 21

31 45 25

50 25 25

47 27 26

48 20 32

54 23 23

40 28 32

45 31 24






Level of debt in the local private s

french council of investors in africa

Documents