french-german institute for environmental research (dfiu/ifare) university of karlsruhe fraunhofer...

French-German Institute for Environmental Research (DFIU/IFARE) University of Karlsruhe

Fraunhofer•ISI

Institute Systems and Innovation Research

1/15

Integration of a Hydrogen EconomyIntegration of a Hydrogen Economy

into the German Energy System: into the German Energy System:

an Optimising Modelling Approachan Optimising Modelling Approach

EHEC 2005

“2nd European Hydrogen Energy Conference”

November 22 – 25, 2005

Zaragoza, Spain

Michael Ball, Otto Rentz

(University of Karlsruhe, Germany)

Martin Wietschel

(Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany)


Fraunhofer•ISI


2/15

Objective and model approach

Model approach: The MOREHyS model

MOREHyS (Model for Optimisation of Regional Hydrogen Supply)

based on the open-source BALMOREL© model

technology-based (bottom-up), mixed-integer, linear optimisation model (myopic optimisation)

- Technologies are described by techno-economic parameters

- Optimisation criteria: cost minimisation

- Several bounds: emission restrictions, use of renewables, etc.

Objective:

Development and application of a novel modelling approach to assess by means of an energy system analysis the economic and environmental effects of implementing a supply infrastructure for a hydrogen-based transport system


Fraunhofer•ISI


3/15

Major features of MOREHyS

conventional energy supply system (electricity and heat generation)

integration of hydrogen supply infrastructure (production, transport, distribution)

tradeoffs between hydrogen and electricity production (energy system analysis)

time horizon: 2010 – 2030

geographic distribution of hydrogen demand centres based on population density

application of Geographic Information System (GIS)


Fraunhofer•ISI


4/15

Penetration rates of hydrogen vehicles

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Passenger car uptakeLDV uptakeBus uptake


Fraunhofer•ISI


5/15

Selected scenarios

Name Assumptions

Infrastructure scenarios low natural gas price

cap of CO2 emissions for power generation

Reference “URB” initial hydrogen penetration primarily in urban areas

“RUR” immediate hydrogen penetration in urban and rural areas

“URB aggr.” high geographic aggregation of demand areas in model

“LH2” 50 % of vehicle hydrogen is required as LH2

Energy price scenarios

“gas high, CO2 cap” high natural gas price with CO2 cap on electricity generation

“gas high, no CO2 cap” high natural gas price without CO2 cap on electricity generation

further scenarios: surplus wind electricity, hydrogen from nuclear energy, etc.


Fraunhofer•ISI


6/15

Hydrogen production (Infrastructure scenarios)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030

URB RUR URB RUR URB RUR URB RUR

Pro

du

ced

Hyd

rog

en [

GW

h]

Industrial byproduct

GS-HC-300 MW

SMR-ONS-2,4 MW

SMR-50 MW

SMR-300 MW


Fraunhofer•ISI


7/15

Total supply costs (Infrastructure scenarios)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2015 2020 2025 2030

URB aggr. URB RUR URB aggr. URB RUR URB aggr. URB RUR URB aggr. URB RUR

M€

RefuellingDistributionTransportLiquefactionProduction

11.9 ct/kWh

8.1 ct/kWh

7.2 ct/kWh

7.2 ct/kWh


Fraunhofer•ISI


8/15

Total supply costs (LH2 scenario)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030

URB URB LH2 URB URB LH2 URB URB LH2 URB URB LH2

M€



Fraunhofer•ISI


9/15

Hydrogen production (High gas price scenarios)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2025 2030

gas low, CO2 cap gas high, CO2 cap gas high, no CO2cap


Pro

du

ced

Hyd

rog

en [

GW

h]

Industrial byproduct

IGCC-300 MW (CCS)

GS-HC-300 MW

Electrolysis

SMR-ONS-2,4 MW

SMR-50 MW

SMR-300 MW


Fraunhofer•ISI


10/15

Load curve electrolysis (2030, no CO2 cap)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2:0

0

4:0

0

6:0

0

8:0

0

10

:00

12

:00

14

:00

16

:00

18

:00

20

:00

22

:00

24

:00

2:0

0

4:0

0

6:0

0

8:0

0

10

:00

12

:00

14

:00

16

:00

18

:00

20

:00

22

:00

24

:00

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Electricity without electrolysis Electrolysis Marginal costs electricity generation

Working day Weekend

mar

gin

al e

lect

rici

ty g

ene

rati

on

co

sts

[ct/

kWh

]

use

d p

ow

er e

lect

rici

ty g

ener

atio

n [

MW

]


Fraunhofer•ISI


11/15

Load curve IGCC (2030, CO2 cap)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2:0

0

4:0

0

6:0

0

8:0

0

10

:00

12

:00

14

:00

16

:00

18

:00

20

:00

22

:00

24

:00

2:0

0

4:0

0

6:0

0

8:0

0

10

:00

12

:00

14

:00

16

:00

18

:00

20

:00

22

:00

24

:00

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Electricity without IGCC IGCC Marginal costs electricity generation

Working day Weekend

mar

gin

al e

lect

rici

ty g

ene

rati

on

co

sts

[ct/

kWh

]

use

d p

ow

er e

lect

rici

ty g

ener

atio

n [

MW

]


Fraunhofer•ISI


12/15

Total supply costs (High gas price scenarios)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2025 2030



M€



Fraunhofer•ISI


13/15

CO2 emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030

Mio

. t

CO

2

Production "URB, gas low"

Production "URB, gas high, no CO2 cap"

CO2 savings traffic


Fraunhofer•ISI


14/15

Major conclusions

production mix highly sensitive to gas/coal price ratio (total supply costs relatively unchanged)

introduction of hydrogen in high-demand areas leads to economies of scale in hydrogen production

LH2 trailer transport/distribution economic for large production plants and dispersed hydrogen demand

large production plants imply higher transportation costs

industrial by-product hydrogen important source for initial hydrogen supply


Fraunhofer•ISI


15/15

Major conclusions (continued)

production dominates total supply costs (7 – 8 ct/kWh)

hydrogen is competitive at crude oil prices around 50 $/barrel (no taxes, no vehicle costs included)

positive CO2 balance: CO2 savings transport > CO2 emissions hydrogen production

coproduction of electricity and hydrogen with IGCC (CCS) especially interesting with cap on CO2 emissions

use of renewables for electricity rather than hydrogen production, if CO2 emissions are to be reduced


Fraunhofer•ISI


16/15

Thank you very much for your attention


Fraunhofer•ISI


17/15

Back-up slides


Fraunhofer•ISI


18/15

Outlook and further research

application of Geographic Information System (GIS) for location planning of production sites

integration of conventional transport and supply chains of other alternative fuels optimal penetration rates

further focus on tradeoffs between hydrogen production and electricity generation


Fraunhofer•ISI


19/15

Schematic structure of MOREHyS

Transmission constraints

Production constraints

CHP Renewables potential EmissionsFossil fuel potential

Current capacity

Newcapacity

Heat generation

Electricity generation

Heatdemand

Electricity demand

Transmission

Balance constraints

Capacity constraints

Hydrogen production

Hydrogen demand

H2 balance constraint

H2 transport &distributionconstraints

Currentcapacity

Newcapacity

H2 transport & distribution

Current capacity

Newcapacity

H2 capacity constraints

Currentcapacity

Newcapacity


Fraunhofer•ISI


20/15

Hydrogen infrastructure options

Ruhr area

Stuttgart

Munich

Area h2

Area ah2

Area ah2’

2ph,2h,2ah12vph

GH2 LH2 GH2 LH2

GH2 LH2 GH2 LH2

Central production

On-site production

Virtual nodeTrailer

Large Pipeline

Pipeline network

2ph,2ah12nph

2ph,2h,2ah22vph

2ph,2ah22nph

2ph,2h,2h12vph

2ph,2h,2honsite,12vph

pipe,2h,2ahpipe2vth

pipe,2h,'2ahpipe2vth

trail,2ph,''2ah,'2ahtrail2vthpipe,2h

centralvdish2

trailph2,,2hdecentralvdish2pipeph2,,2h

decentralvdish2

trail,2hcentralvdish2

GH2 LH2

Munich

BERLIN

Hamburg

Ruhr area

Stuttgart

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