For the first time since the inception of the

Fifth Republic in 1958, a president running for

re-election has failed to win the first round

poll.

Nicolas Sarkozy won 27.18% of the vote, finishing

second to the Socialist candidate, François

Hollande (right), who won 28.63% of the vote in

the first round of the presidential election on

Sunday.

Mr Hollande’s victory was not unexpected, with

pre-election polls suggesting that he would win

the run-off against Mr Sarkozy. Instead, the real

surprise of the election was the significant vote for

the far right candidate, Marine Le Pen, who scored

17.9% - a record for a National Front (FN)

candidate.

While Mr Hollande and others on the left consider

the results to be a rejection of the policies of Mr

Sarkozy, the President’s supporters will look to the

possibility of picking up votes from FN supporters.

Opinion polls suggest that between 60 and 70 per

cent of Mrs Le Pen’s voters will back Mr Sarkozy in

the second round.

Meanwhile, Mr Hollande has already secured the

support of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front

(FdG) candidate, and Eva Joly, the Green candidate.

The second round will be held in two weeks’ time,

on Sunday 6 May, with a televised debate between

Mr Hollande and Mr Sarkozy scheduled for 2 May.

Despite predictions of voter apathy, turnout for Sunday’s first

round vote was high, at almost 80%. Even though the

participation rate was slightly lower than in the last poll (in 2007,

where there was a record turnout of 84%), a higher percentage

voted than in the 1995 or 2002 presidential elections.

French voters had the choice of ten candidates - a wide field but

one that is relatively small number in comparison to other French

presidential elections. Some commentators have suggested that

the more restricted list of candidates helped voters to better

understand issues at stake.

Many observers predicted that the first round of the election

would be crucial: while it seemed fairly clear that the Socialist

candidate, François Hollande, and his centre-right opponent and

current President, Nicolas Sarkozy, would go through to the run-

off, there was much attention on who would emerge in first place.

Mr Sarkozy’s relegation to second position has generally been

interpreted by many - especially on the left - as a rejection of his

record as President and his policies.

The President’s score seems also to have been impacted by a

strong showing for the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen.

Although she did not repeat the success of her father and

founder of the National Front (FN), Jean-Marie Le Pen, in reaching

the second round in 2002, she did achieve a higher share of the

vote than ten years ago.

Marine Le Pen’s success came despite an attempt by Mr Sarkozy

to squeeze the FN vote by adopting strong positions on

immigration control, including a promise to reform the European

Union’s Schengen agreement on free movement of EU citizens.

In 2007, the promises of Mr Sarkozy managed to prise far-right

voters away from Jean-Marie Le Pen. In 2012, the experience of

his time in office did not prevent these voters moving back to the

FN to the extent that more than one in six ballots was cast for

Marine Le Pen.

The record vote for the FN will have a large bearing on the

second round campaign and the vote on 6 May.

4.8 million voters chose Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002; 6.3 million

voted for his daughter. Mr Sarkozy now faces a dilemma: he may

move to the right to pick up FN votes, but in doing so may risk

alienating centrists, such as the supporters of François Bayrou,

who may withhold their support for the President.

After the first round, Marine Le Pen stated that Mr Sarkozy had

‘lost’ the election and did not call on her supporters to back the

President in the second round (although it remains to be seen if

this position will change over the next fortnight).

Soon after the announcement of the results, analysts almost

unanimously said Mr Hollande was in a good position to win the

second round. The Socialist candidate will be bolstered by a

strong vote for left-wing parties: the vote for the combined left

came to more than 43%, and Mr Hollande has already received

the backing of the Green candidate, Eva Joly (who is also Chair of

the European Parliament’s Development Committee), and the

tacit approval of the Left Front candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,

who did not mention Mr Hollande but called on supporters “to

beat Sarkozy”, asking his supporters “to mobilise yourselves as if it

was a case of making me president”.

Ségolène Royal, who ran unsuccessfully as Socialist candidate for

the presidency in 2007, also tried to attract some FN voters,

stating that the Socialists should understand those who backed

the far-right leader.

The centrist candidate, François Bayrou, hoped to repeat his high

score of 2007 (18%), but garnered only 9.1%. He should

announce his support to one of the two remaining candidates

next week.

The result for Mr Mélenchon was a slightly disappointing one,

given his higher poll ratings (of between 13 and 15 per cent).

Despite topping ten per cent, it seems that the ‘radical’ votes

went to Mrs Le Pen instead.

The international press and some local analysts were scornful of

the lack of focus of the campaign. Some secondary issues - like

the reform of the driving licence system or the alleged

‘generalisation’ of halal meat in French supermarkets - attracted

much more attention from the candidates and the media than

issues such as the economic crisis and the public debt. The tone

of the debate certainly favoured Mrs Le Pen and may have helped

to inflate her score.

Another interesting aspect of this presidential campaign is that it

was less passionate than in previous years (despite the high

turnout). Several opinion polls have shown that a significant

section of Mr Hollande’s support were expressing a rejection of

the President, rather than voting enthusiastically for the Socialist

candidate. The second round is now considered by many as a

referendum on the performance of Nicolas Sarkozy over the past

five years.

Arguments against European Union measures to combat the crisis

seem to have been successful in the campaign. Mr Hollande has

been vocal in denouncing the austerity measures to which Nicolas

Sarkozy agreed, including the Fiscal Compact, and the alignment

between France and Germany on many issues. If elected, Mr

Hollande aims to renegotiate the Fiscal Compact and promote

growth, rather than austerity, as a way of emerging from the

crisis.

Nicolas Sarkozy dismissed criticism of his European policy,

highlighting his management of the crisis, but has also been

critical of EU policies in other areas. If re-elected, he plans to

renegotiate the Schengen agreement, in order to better control

French borders - seen by many as a ‘dog whistle’ to FN voters. He

also promises to fight for more flexible procurement rules that

Presidential election, 1st round

allow governments and others to favour domestic suppliers

(potentially introducing rules unilaterally if there is no agreement

at EU level), and to freeze France’s contribution to the EU budget.

In the end, the campaign and result did highlight the continuing

issue of Europe in France, twenty years after the ‘petit oui’ in the

Maastricht Treaty referendum. Around one-third of voters

supported anti-EU or Eurosceptic parties - something that, along

with the current President’s criticism of Schengen and some

aspects of the single market - should worry EU leaders.

Opinion polls taken on Sunday showed that Mr Hollande is likely

to win the election, taking between 53 and 56 per cent of the vote

in the second round.

Mr Sarkozy’s team sees the second round as a new campaign,

and both candidates see the next two weeks as crucial - not least

in picking up endorsements from other candidates. The

organisation of a debate between the two candidates has

become a controversial issue. Mr Sarkozy has called for three

debates over the next fortnight – focusing on the economy, social

issues, and international relations.

Mr Hollande rejected the idea, stating that the candidates had

previously agreed on holding the now traditional single televised

debate ahead of the second round vote. Despite accusations from

Mr Sarkozy’s team that his challenger is running scared, Mr

Hollande will point to the desperation of a President that is

running second. The debate will probably be held on 2 May, with

a focus on the economy and employment.

After the election of the President, parliamentary elections will

take place, on 10 and 17 June, and the new incumbent of the

Elysée Palace will hope to gain a parliamentary majority for the

five years to come.