friday, may 01, 2015 page 1 friday, may 01, 2015 weekly...

© 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information.

Friday, May 01, 2015

Despite edging lower from February, March came in at 102.2 and became the 25th straight month in which the RPI measured above 100. A value greater than 100 indicates expansion in the industry. Same store sales were positive for most operators and this was the biggest driver of the positive outlook.

URNER BARRY’S WEEKLY RED MEAT INSIDER’S REPORT is available on FoodMarket.com and through Urner Barry’s flagship service Comtell Online. FoodMarket is available for $19.00 a month.


Number 18- Volume 08

7

114 121 119 121 119 17 610EST. DAILY HOG SLAUGHTER

*LY 2,015344 415 408 415 411

EST. DAILY CATTLE SLAUGHTER

TWLW

M105

T115

W115

TH F S Total5667109115

110 110 110 105 105 4

*LY 23

30.210

European Union, Euro 1.119 1.087 1.387

2 2 2 2 0 10

2 21 22 23 23 114

22 2

39

Taiwan, Dollar 30.670

Data Updated: April 22, 2015

Quotes represent the high side of Friday's trading range

*Last Year's numbers are rounded

COLD STORAGE STOCKS

LoinsSpareribsButts

45,884106,781

35,641

42,139113,663

34,42623 3 18 22

Total

EST. DAILY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER

LW

LW 2

109

102.2306.193 6.259

Brazil, Real 3.015 2.963 2.222

South Korea, Won 1,080.000 1,076.000 1,029.700

China, Yuan (RMB) 6.202

544

20 21 21

*LY 3 2 2 2 2 0 11

TW 2

EST. DAILY SHEEP SLAUGHTER

EST. DAILY CALVES SLAUGHTER*LY 9 8 8 8 6

108

LW

Week

Australia, Dollar

450,48241,346

0.783 0.78315.394

Canada, Dollar 1.216

22 21TW

F S M T W TH4/17 4/18 4/20 4/21 4/22 4/23

22

4/24 4/25 4/30 Total4/27 4/28 4/29

2 0 10

8 6 0 37

7 8 7 0

8

0 39

2 2 2

2,184

TW 429 429 426 425 420 35 2,164

LW 430 432 428 428 417 49

23

9 8

TW 8

460.00

1,110.00

840.00

161.51

625.00

620.00

1,100.00

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

865.00

295.00

540.00

565.00

375.00

925.00

142.00

169.00

170.00

61.00

120.00

330.00

Pork in Freezer, PicnicsHams

9,080 19,339

655.00

195.00

1,100.00

146.11

297.00

775.00

225.00

1,150.00

135.00

214.00

15.82

715.00

270.00

270.00

1,295.00

This Last

465.00

1,110.00

840.00

800.00

290.00

825.00

205.00

800.00

1,295.00

53.00

352.00

820.00

280.00

530.00

560.00

61.00

67.00

104.00

97.00

175.00

23.00

13.76

865.00

320.00

0.28

299.00

135.00

243.00

13.77

860.00

332.00

530.00

550.00

183.00

25.00

61.00

352.00

820.00

280.00

1,150.00

158.85

60.00

69.00

110.00

110.00

Veal Cuts, 332 Loin, 4x4 Trim 12/18

Veal Cuts, 348A Leg, TBS 3-Pc 24/32

968.50

59.15

UNQ

0.28

299.50

110.00

241.00

Lamb Cuts, 206 Shoulder, Cross Cut

Lamb Cuts, 232 Loin Trmd 4x4

Lamb Cuts, 234 Leg, Boneless

Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, NC

Veal Cuts, 306 Hotel Rack, 7-Rib 14/20

Veal Cuts, 310 Shoulder Clod 14/20

1/4 Tr Boston Butts 9/dn

Spareribs, Light, Fresh

Fresh Pork Trim (42%)

Fresh Pork Trim (72%)

Carcass Lamb Y4+55/65

Lamb Cuts, 204 Rack, 8-Rib, 7/Up

136 Coarse Ground 73%

189A 4 Loin, Tenderloin, PSMO CH

Cattle-Fax, 6-State Fed Steer Price

Select Hams 20/23

Sq Cut Bellies 14/16

1/4 Trmd. Loins 21/dn

Aust/NZ Blend Cow 90% EC Spot

USDA Drop Credit

112A 3 Ribeye Roll, Lip-On CH

116A 3 Chuck Roll, Neck-Off CH

168 3 Round, Top (Inside) CH

180 3 Strip Loin, Bnls, 0x1 CH

WEEKLY COMMODITY AT A GLANCE

NYMEX Light Crude Oil

Loose Lard, Chicago Basis

Edible Tallow, Chicago Basis

Beef Trimmings, 90% Fresh

Beef Trimmings, 50% Fresh

3.63Omaha, US No 2 Yellow Corn

CBOT Soybean

3.67

LastWeek Week Year

969.75

57.15

UNQ

1,480.75

99.76

UNQ

0.46

250.00

4.86

106.00

140.00

Last

30.780

LastWeek Year

438,77241,012

(Pounds in Thousands)

Beef in Freezer, Bnls

Cuts

3/31/14 2/28/15 3/31/15364,771

41,016

1.217

Japan, Yen 120.230

This

Mexico, Peso 15.5640.927

13.0061.097

118.881

*LY

Lamb & Mutton in Freezer

Total

79,72141,470

120,60620,16336,87194,722

575,5392,921

28,07630,997

TrimmingsOther Pork in FreezerTotal Veal in Freezer

Bellies

68,874

67,794

34,24442,400

67,454105,917686,063

9,61436,771

46,385

479,784

68,657

19,582127,712 100,685

491,828

PORK & OTHER 3/31/14 2/28/15 3/31/15Total Beef 405,787

98,102668,559

8,156

89,452

$1.80

$2.05

$2.30

$2.55

$2.80

J F M A M J J A S O N D

$/lb

.

Beef Index 2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

$0.40

$0.65

$0.90

$1.15

$1.40


$/lb

. Pork Cutout 2014

2015

Source: Urner Barry

$0.60

$0.67

$0.74

$0.81

$0.88


$/lb

.

Chicken Index 2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

$0.93

$1.11

$1.29

$1.47

$1.65


$/lb

.

Turkey Index 2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry



BONELESS BEEF: Fresh 50s were mixed this week as supplies varied noticeably from packer to packer. The week ended with light to moderate trade developing at significantly lower price levels. This week’s cattle slaughter was higher than most participants anticipated coming in at 566,000 head. Fresh 90s were mostly steady this week. The current call for product was fairly matched with present inventory levels.

Boxed beef and cutout values saw negative pressure develop early in the week, and as the week closed, downward pressure remained in place. Beef processors throughout the week were seeking clearing prices for chucks and rounds, as well as briskets and select ribs. Briskets sold in large volumes, spurred by the price breaks. Ground beef values moved lower, as demand remains weak.

LIVE CATTLE: At press time, cash cattle trading was ongoing in the North. Southern sale barns had completed the weekly trade at $160/cwt for the live animal, $2/cwt higher from week prior. Sales so far in the North had occurred at $158/cwt to $160/cwt, $253/cwt to $255/cwt for the dressed carcass.

SLAUGHTER & BEEF PRODUCTION: Federally Inspected Slaughter continues to see an increase the week/over/week number of cattle entering the slaughter mix. Only a few weeks ago, the weekly tally was 503,600 head. This week’s inspected kill was assessed at 566,000, up 22,000 from week prior. Live cattle estimated weights moved 2 pounds lower to 1344 pounds. Dressed carcass weights gained a pound, reported now at 815 pounds.

RIBS: Rib prices and primal values continue to slip lower in somewhat of a contra-seasonal pattern. Select ribs realized the largest week/over/week declines when looking at primal sections of the carcass, losing almost $15/cwt from week prior.

CHUCKS: Demand for chuck cuts was lackluster, with both the clod and the chuck roll unable to find traction. Chuck cutouts move lower as boxed prices and fresh trimmings pushed values down.

ROUNDS: Rounds found slow movement into both the retail sector as wells as grinding facilities.

LOINS: The loin primal section of the fabricated carcass was the only area where week/over/week gains developed. Strips and short loins continue to find higher trading ranges.

BEEF

*Last Week's numbers are rounded

YS BEEF CUTOUT-CH/SE SPREAD ($/cwt)

8.5510.708.90

10.799.22

10.358.21

TW*LW

9.728.59

9.27M T

BEEF COMMENTARY

-4.29% -4.29% -1.87%

-1.89% -1.69% -1.64%

YS BEEF CUTOUT May-01 v. Apr-24CHOICE SELECT NO-ROLL CAB

Flank -5.24%

-3.91% 0.14%

Brisket -4.79%

Total -1.14% -1.82% -1.14% -0.59%

W TH F

Round -1.96%

Loin 0.94% 1.12% 0.30% 1.51%

-4.79% -3.33% -3.36%

Plate -3.84% -3.91%

-2.45%

Chuck -1.66% -2.57% -0.79% -0.74%

Rib -1.21% -4.08% -1.55%

80

100

120

140

160


Thou

sand

Hea

d/W

eek

Cow and Bull Slaughter 2014 2015

Source: USDA

1.450

1.500

1.550

1.600

1.650

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

Live Cattle Cont. Front-Month Futures

Source: CME

$13.00

$13.99

$14.98

$15.97

$16.96


$/cw

t

Drop Credit 2014 2015

Source: USDA

17%

20%

23%

26%

29%


2014 2015

Source: USDA

Select Grading Percentage

62%

65%

67%

70%

72%


2014 2015

Source: USDA

Choice Grading Percentage

300

352

404

456

508


Mill

ion

lbs.

Beef Production 2014 2015

Source: USDA

$1.29

$1.41

$1.53

$1.65

$1.77


$/lb

.

Live Cattle, 6-State Fed Steer Price 2014 2015

Source: Cattle Fax

$0.90

$0.98

$1.06

$1.14

$1.22

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

YS 50 % Trimmings

Source: Urner Barry

$2.89

$2.92

$2.96

$2.99

$3.02

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

YS 90 % Trimmings

Source: Urner Barry

350

423

496

569

642


Thou

sand

Hea

d/W

eek

Cattle Slaughter 2014 2015

Source: USDA

775

791

807

823

839


lbs.

Cattle Weights 2014 2015

Source: USDA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Last week This week Trim 44.40 91.75

Grind 103.58 140.93

SE 164.18 178.26

CH 375.32 430.60

1 load = 40,000 lbs. Weekly Beef Breakdown (# of loads)

Source: USDA

BEEF



While wholesale values began to rise on a lighter kill and seasonal demand, these gains were severely overshadowed by appreciation in hog values. Urner Barry’s pork carcass cutout climbed gradually throughout the week; going from $69.29/cwt to $72.47/cwt. During the same timeframe, Iowa Minnesota hogs rocketed higher, gaining 15.7 percent on average. The Urner Barry pork packer margin index for standard operations declined throughout the week, reaching ($9.74) by Friday.

PORK PRODUCTION: Total pork production for the week ending May 2, 2015 was estimated at 463.1 million lbs. This total was .9 percent below the previous week and 6 percent over the same week a year ago. Average hog weights, at 285 pounds, were even with last week and three pounds less than last year.

HAMS: Ham values were mixed this week as spots of availability emerged in response to Mexico’s Labor Day which occurred on Friday and essentially temporarily shut down exports to plants there. This was especially noticeable because leading up to this week, exports to Mexico had been described as strong. 17 through 27lb bone-in hams ranged between $1.00 higher and $1.00/cwt lower while boneless hams lost $1.00/cwt by Friday as a result.

BELLIES: Trade in the belly complex occurred within a wide range this week as reductions in the slaughter helped the excess supply situation, yet without strong foodservice demand, offerings still varied widely by location. By Friday, 12 through 20lb square-cut bellies traded between $2.00 higher and $2.00/cwt lower.

TRIMMINGS: Further processors continued to seek trimmings this week, which when combined with a reduced slaughter resulted in full steady to firm trade throughout the period. Fresh 42s closed the week up $2.00/cwt. Meanwhile, 72s gained $5.00/cwt over the course of the week. Boneless picnics were up as well with gains of $6.00/cwt seen by Friday.

RETAIL: Although the week began with mixed undertones in the fresh pork complex, by mid-week most items were finding consistent premiums on balanced to thin inventories and supportive retail interest. The slight reduction in slaughter hog weights this week aided in clearing up excesses in supplies that existed last week. Bone-in loins gained between $4.00 and $6.00/cwt during the week while boneless was up $3.00 to $7.00/cwt. Offerings of tenderloins and sirloins varied more seller to seller than most other items, leading to more conservative gains of $5.00/cwt or 2 percent for tenderloins and $1.00/cwt for both bone-in and boneless sirs. Picnics and fresh boxed cushion meat were up $6.00 and $3.00/cwt respectively. Butts were among the strongest items on the sheet this week, seeing premiums between $9.00 and $13.00/cwt by Friday. Spareribs gained $7.00 to $8.00/cwt while St. Louis style and back ribs were up $10.00/cwt.

PORK PROCESSING ITEMS & RETAIL CUTS

Cutout Value 69.286 72.472 3.186

0.044Belly 10.185 10.472 0.287Ham 13.087 13.131Sparerib 7.843 8.161 0.318

22.71 23.805 1.095

Picnic 5.041 5.425

LoinButt 8.495 9.548 1.053

0.384

LIVE HOGS & CUTOUT PORK COMMENTARYPORK CUTOUT Apr-24 May-01 Change

1,580

1,780

1,980

2,180

2,380


Thou

sand

Hea

d/W

eek

Hog Slaughter 2014 2015

Source: USDA

209

212

214

217

219


lbs.

Dressed weights, Hogs 2014 2015

Source: USDA

340

385

430

475

520


Mill

ion

lbs.

Pork Production 2014 2015

Source: USDA

$0.700

$0.720

$0.740

$0.760

$0.780

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

Lean Hog Cont. Front-Month Futures

Source: CME

$0.44

$0.74

$1.04

$1.34

$1.64


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: USDA

USDA Direct Hogs, Iowa/Minnesota, Carcass Base

$0.98

$1.02

$1.05

$1.09

$1.12

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

TL 1/4 in. Tr Loins 21/dn

Source: Urner Barry

$0.55

$0.58

$0.60

$0.63

$0.65

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

Select Hams 20/23

Source: Urner Barry

$0.62

$0.64

$0.66

$0.68

$0.70

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

TL Sq. Cut Bellies 14/16

Source: Urner Barry

$1.70

$1.75

$1.80

$1.85

$1.90

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

TL Spareribs, Light, Fresh (Vacpak)

Source: Urner Barry

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

TL 1/4 in. Tr Boston Butts 9/dn

Source: Urner Barry

$0.18

$0.21

$0.23

$0.26

$0.28

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

Sausage Materials (TL) Trim (42%) Fr

Source: Urner Barry

$0.50

$0.53

$0.55

$0.58

$0.60

4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1

$/lb

.

Sausage Materials (TL) Trim (72%) Fr

Source: Urner Barry

PORK PRODUCTION

PORK PROCESSING ITEMS & RETAIL CUTS



Veal carcasses were steady to a little higher in some instances. Boxed cuts traded within the previously quoted price ranges. Movement was reportedly a little better in some areas.

Lamb carcasses settled at mostly steady price levels. Boxed lamb cuts were steady to slightly weaker. Discounts were noted on the legs. Trading activity was a little slower this week.

http://shop.meatbuyersguide.comALL NEW! 800-932-0617

shop.meatbuyersguide.comIncludes all USDA revisions to the IMPS40 updated cuts • 50 new photos

CUSTOMCOVERS AVAILABLE

LAMB COMMENTARY

VEAL COMMENTARY

$2.70

$2.95

$3.20

$3.45

$3.70


$/lb

.

2014 2015

YS Carcass Lamb Y4+55/65

Source: Urner Barry

$6.70

$7.30

$7.90

$8.50

$9.10


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 204 Rack, 8-Rib, 7/Up

$2.54

$2.74

$2.94

$3.14

$3.34


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 206 Shoulder, Cross Cut

$5.00

$5.20

$5.40

$5.60

$5.80


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 232 Loin Trmd 4x4

$4.50

$4.85

$5.20

$5.55

$5.90


$/lb

.

2014

2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 234 Leg, Boneless

$3.63

$3.93

$4.23

$4.53

$4.83


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, North Central

$8.60

$9.30

$10.00

$10.70

$11.40


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 306 Hotel Rack, 7-Rib 14/20

$6.10

$6.70

$7.30

$7.90

$8.50


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 310 Shoulder Clod 14/20

$5.90

$6.50

$7.10

$7.70

$8.30


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 332 Loin, 4x4 Trimmed 12/18

$10.20

$10.95

$11.70

$12.45

$13.20


$/lb

. 2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 348A Leg, TBS 3-Piece 24/32

$2.50

$3.25

$4.00

$4.75

$5.50


$/bu

shel

Yellow, Omaha Corn No. 2 2014 2015

Source: CME

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00


$/bu

shel

Kansas City Hard Red Wheat 2014 2015

Source: KCBT

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600


cent

s/bu

shel

CBOT Soybean Features 2014 2015

Source: CME

LAMB

VEAL

FEEDS: CORN, SOY BEAN, RED WHEAT



This report is offered to you conditioned on your acceptance without modification of the terms, conditions, and notices contained herein. Please read the End-User License Agreement (the “Agreement), a copy of which is available at www.urnerbarry.com before utilizing this Urner Barry product. Your use of a particular UB Product(s) may also be subject to additional terms set forth in the Agreement. Your use of the UB Product(s) constitutes your acceptance of all of the terms, conditions, and notices set forth in the Agreement. Urner Barry reserves the right to amend, remove, or add to these terms, conditions and notices at any time without notice. Accordingly please continue to review the Agreement whenever accessing or using the UB Product(s). If at any time you do not accept the Agreement along with the terms and conditions outlined in the Services and Products Order Form, you may not use this or any UB Product. Commodity Indecies, Cattle Fax, Daily Beef Quotations, Daily Pork Quotations, Daily Lamb & Veal Quotations, Daily Poultry Quotations, Beef and Pork Futures, USDA Direct Hogs, are quoted in $/lb; USDA Slaughter is quoted as Head in Thousands; USDA Production is quoted as Pounds in Millions; USDA Weights are quoted in Pounds; USDA Drop credit is quoted in $/cwt live; Feeds are quoted in $/Bushel; Gasoline & Diesel are quoted in Cents/Gallon.

Contributors: Joe Muldowney - [email protected] Longo - [email protected] Smith - [email protected] Kenny - [email protected] Whitman - [email protected] Terence Wells - [email protected] Russ Barton- [email protected] Morrison- [email protected]

There still very much remains a split between the top half and bottom half of the bird for the chicken industry. Boneless breast meat and tenders continue to be absorbed at a steady to full steady rate as needs for further processing and foodservice are active. The same can likely be said for whole birds, WOGs, and wings. Trading ranges for said lines finish the week well supported. Whole legs, leg quarters, and drumsticks have not improved and selling levels trended lower this week so that sellers could keep product moving. The call for thigh meat is still strong. Offerings are in close balance with demand and spot sales are mostly market related. As for leg meat, supplies are deemed at least adequate for needs, which may vary from buyer to buyer, but are no better than fair.

With the current exception of the parts segment, the balance of the turkey complex is a reflection of the intertwining relationships shared by primary breeders, growers, processors and further processors. The existing status of offerings, along with their related prices, has almost everything to do with the course HPAI is taking and the impact it will have on near future

and future supplies. Retailers and distributors are also caught up in the fray. Securing whole bird offerings is a challenge and compounded by the advancing values being asked. Breast meat and tenderloins are firm and wanted and are more of an immediate issue given their relationship with seasonal cold cut requirements. There’s a sense that frozen thigh meat is building as Mexican buyers do what they can to produce more pork ham based products in light of existing price differentials. Overall the market is stronger than anticipated as HPAI related events dictate its immediate course.

http://shop.meatbuyersguide.com

ALL NEW!

shop.meatbuyersguide.com800-932-0617

CUSTOM COVERS AVAILABLE

POULTRY COMMENTARY

$1.30

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10


$/lb

.

2014 2015

UB NE Jumbo Bnls/Sknls Breasts Tender Out

Source: Urner Barry

$0.30

$0.36

$0.42

$0.48

$0.54


$/lb

.

2014 2015

UB NE Leg Quarters (bulk)

Source: Urner Barry

$0.95

$1.03

$1.11

$1.19

$1.27


$/lb

.

2014 2015

UB Toms, East, Frozen 16 lbs

Source: Urner Barry

$0.70

$0.82

$0.94

$1.06

$1.18


$/lb

.

2014 2015

UB NE WOG Chickens Cutting Stock 3 lbs & up

Source: Urner Barry

$1.40

$2.10

$2.80

$3.50

$4.20


$/lb

.

2014 2015

Source: Urner Barry

UB Turkey Meat - Breast, Tom, Fresh

$1.35

$1.46

$1.57

$1.68

$1.79


$/lb

.

2014 2015

UB Turkey Meat - Thigh, Fresh

Source: Urner Barry

$1.75

$2.35

$2.95

$3.55

$4.15


$/G

allo

n

Gasoline 2014 2015

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

$2.50

$2.85

$3.20

$3.55

$3.90

$4.25


$/G

allo

n

Diesel 2014 2015

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

POULTRY ENERGY

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