Caltrain Ridership, Capacity, and Electric Rail Car Design Decisions

Friends of CaltrainAdina LevinSeptember 2014

Caltrain “success disaster” - Long-term ridership growth

Dot.Com Bust

Baby Bullet Launch

Financial crash & recession

Second bike car

Trends - car-light culture

● Today’s workers prefer less driving...○ 40% of Caltrain riders don’t own a car or don’t drive○ Only 24% drive to station and park○ 17% use a bicycle for first/last mile

● ...fostered by transportation incentives and policies○ 42% of Stanford employees drive to work, down

from 72% a decade ago, following Santa Clara County trip cap and Stanford TDM program

○ 50% of Bay Meadows residents prefer to take the train in major City of San Mateo Transit-Oriented Development with transit incentives

Trends - transit corridor growthPlan Bay Area - Priority Development Areas focused on transit corridors Regional goal:

accommodate 80% of housing, 60% of job growth in < 5% of land w/transit access

Price premium for offices, homes near Caltrain

National trend: growth, demand in walkable transit-served areas

How much future ridership growth?

San Francisco expects Ridership to increase 3x by 2040

San Jose Expects Ridership to increase 5x by 2035

Caltrain expects ridership to increase less than 2x by 2040

How much future ridership growth?

Caltrain Electrification Forecast

Continued Growth Trend?

Why Level Boarding? Faster.

Credit: Clem TIllier

Peak period growth and crowding

Train can seat 650 passengersHigh season trains carry over 900Peak and reverse peak crowding

Crowding is concentrated in peak period, faster trains

Baby Bullet

Limited

Local

Why level boarding? Smoother.

Smooth schedule challenges with High Speed Rail blending

Ridership driven by Downtown Extension to Transbay Terminal

Credit: Clem TIllier

Service to Transbay

2 Caltrain trains to Transbay, in Caltrain electrification environmental impact report

6 Caltrain trains in blended system plan

10 Caltrain+HSR trains in blended system plan

16?? Maximum per preliminary engineering analysis???

Current Baby Bullet schedule concentrates ridership

Fast Baby bullets are crowded, locals have room

Stations with strong potential ridership have poor service - e.g. Cal Ave, San Antonio

Keeping up with capacity

SF Central Subway

SF - Downtown Extension to Transbay

SJ - BART to Diridon Station

HSR - 2029+

How to keep up with demand growth

Passengers per peak hour

Today 5 cars seated 3,250

Standing room 5 cars w/standees 4,225

6 car trains 6 cars x 5tph 5,070

Electrification 6 cars x 6tph 6,084

8 car trains 8 cars x 6tph 7,301

Increase freq. 8 cars x 8tph 9,710

Timeline

2016 - Positive Train Control2019 - Caltrain Electrification2019 - Central Subway202x - Longer platforms at major stations202x - BART to Diridon202x - Downtown Extension to Transbay - drives demand for more frequent service~2029 - High Speed Rail

Credits

Clem Tillier - Caltrain High Speed Rail Compatibility BlogGoogle - contributed to capacity analysis

Outtakes

Slides after here will not be presented

Adding Capacity - Standing Room

Current Caltrain goal is for 100% of riders to have a seatAverage Baby Bullet trip: 28 miles, 35 minAverage Peak Non-Baby Bullet: 20 miles, 30 minIn practice, 15-40% stand

Modify Caltrain cars for 25% comfortable standing?

Average BART trip length: 14 miles, ~20minAverage share of standees: 26%New BART cars designed for 10% more standing

Adding capacity: 6th car

Caltrain is purchasing used rail cars from MetroLink to add a 6th car to diesel trainset

Adding Capacity: Electrification

More frequent service: Faster acceleration, can stop at more stations in the same amount of time Spread ridership across peak hour trains: Locals more competitive with driving Less costly to add shoulder service: Electricity cheaper than diesel

Crowding is concentrated in peak period, faster trains

Baby Bullet

Limited

Local

Longer Platforms, Level Boarding

● Faster service (less time at station)

● Better feeder service: reliable transfers to BART, VTA

● Accessible for people with wheelchairs, strollers, luggage, bikes

● 8 car trains

Can fewer bike cars increase capacity?Bicycle takes space of one seat - would fewer bikes help?● 80% of Bay Area jobs are within 3 miles of Caltrain/BART● Many jobs are .5 to 3 miles from train● 5% use shuttle - $5-$6 per ride● 17% of Caltrain riders use a bicycle ● Bikes serve last mile with more flexibility than shuttle

Bike space efficiency opportunities

Secure bicycle parking at origin station● For bike users who can walk or take

shuttle at destination● Data: How many bring bike on board

because of lack of secure bike parking?

Better locations for last-mile stations○ Peninsula stations aren’t at major

work destinations○ How big are last-mile clusters at

N. Bayshore, Stanford Research Park, etc?

Electrification can help smooth service pattern and smooth peak

More frequent trains, grade separation● Blended system deal with High Speed Rail limits Caltrain

to 6 trains/direction/hour - maybe not!● Blended system can accommodate up to 8tph; up to 10tph

with passing tracks

● HSR business plan predicts 2.5 million riders per year in Peninsula commute

● So - Caltrain can start running more frequent service before HSR

● Frequency puts stress on at-grade crossings, need grade separation