From Cold War to Hot War: From Cold War to Hot War: Climate Change and Climate Change and

Conflict in the 21Conflict in the 21stst Century Century

Jim LeeJim LeeAmerican UniversityAmerican University

March 2007March 2007

Climate Change Will do More than Climate Change Will do More than Raise the TemperatureRaise the Temperature

I.I. The Environmental CenturyThe Environmental CenturyA.A. The Linkages between Climate The Linkages between Climate Change and Conflict Change and Conflict B.B. Forecasts of Climate in the Forecasts of Climate in the 21st Century21st CenturyC.C. Trends in ConflictTrends in Conflict

Linkages: The Problem of Climate Linkages: The Problem of Climate Change and ConflictChange and Conflict

Displacement: Large scale migrations Displacement: Large scale migrations Abundance: New resources become Abundance: New resources become

availableavailable Scarcity: Greater Demands and Scarcity: Greater Demands and

Declining YieldsDeclining Yields Sovereignty: New lands and seawaysSovereignty: New lands and seaways

Climate Change in History and Climate Change in History and ConflictConflict

The End of the Ice Age (30-40,000 BC) The End of the Ice Age (30-40,000 BC) Neanderthal Wars and Growing DesertsNeanderthal Wars and Growing Deserts

The Medieval Climate Optimum (500-1000 The Medieval Climate Optimum (500-1000 AD) Recovering from the Dark Ages and AD) Recovering from the Dark Ages and the New Worldthe New World

The Little Ice Age (1300-1850) Retreat and The Little Ice Age (1300-1850) Retreat and Advance, Extreme EventsAdvance, Extreme Events

The Modern Warming (1900-today)The Modern Warming (1900-today)

Climate Change and Conflict Climate Change and Conflict DynamicsDynamics

Temperature from 400 BC until Temperature from 400 BC until TodayToday

IPCC ForecastsIPCC Forecasts

The research will rely on forecasts to The research will rely on forecasts to create a climate baseline scenario for the create a climate baseline scenario for the 21st century. The scenario will primarily 21st century. The scenario will primarily use the Intergovernmental Panel on use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts.Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts.http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/

Forecasts for Conflict IndicatorsForecasts for Conflict Indicators These forecasts center on two These forecasts center on two

dimensions. First, there is the dimensions. First, there is the geography of the forecast. Second, geography of the forecast. Second, there are the impacts. The impacts there are the impacts. The impacts focus on four types: focus on four types:

(1) precipitation and temperature, (1) precipitation and temperature, (2) arable land, (2) arable land, (3) forests, and (3) forests, and (4) fresh water.(4) fresh water.

IPCC 2006 ScenariosIPCC 2006 Scenarios

IPCC ForecastsIPCC Forecasts

ScenariosScenarios Note RangeNote Range Has adjustmentsHas adjustments

Trends in ClimateTrends in Climate

Regional IPCC ForecastsRegional IPCC Forecasts

Precipitation ForecastsPrecipitation Forecasts

New and Old Tension BeltsNew and Old Tension Belts

Trends in Conflict BehaviorTrends in Conflict Behavior Growth in Destructiveness of Growth in Destructiveness of

WeaponsWeapons More Ability to Use Environment as a More Ability to Use Environment as a

WeaponWeapon Livelihood ConflictsLivelihood Conflicts A Focus on Civilian Casualties and A Focus on Civilian Casualties and

Environment DestructionEnvironment Destruction More Civil than International WarsMore Civil than International Wars

Thinking About Conflict and Thinking About Conflict and EnvironmentEnvironment

II.II. Climate Change and Conflict in Climate Change and Conflict in HistoryHistory

A. The Equatorial Tension BeltA. The Equatorial Tension BeltB. Historical Cases of Climate Change B. Historical Cases of Climate Change

and Conflictand Conflict1.1. Temperature: The Vikings and North Temperature: The Vikings and North

AmericaAmerica2.2. Arable Land: The Shifting Sahel Arable Land: The Shifting Sahel3. Forests: The Cedars of Lebanon3. Forests: The Cedars of Lebanon4.4. Water: Controlling the Nile in Water: Controlling the Nile in

AntiquityAntiquity

The Path is Partially DeterminedThe Path is Partially Determined III.III. Future Climate Changes and Possible Future Climate Changes and Possible

Conflict OutcomesConflict Outcomes A.A. The Polar Tension BeltThe Polar Tension Belt B.B. Future Cases of Climate Change and Future Cases of Climate Change and

ConflictConflict 1.1. Temperature: The Dispute over Canada’s Temperature: The Dispute over Canada’s

Northwest PassageNorthwest Passage 2.2. Arable Land: The Long-Term Drought in Arable Land: The Long-Term Drought in

Southern Africa Southern Africa 3.3. Forests: The Decline in the Northern Forests: The Decline in the Northern

Amazon Amazon 4.4. Water: Critical Shortages in Central AsiaWater: Critical Shortages in Central Asia

Problem and Solution Types Problem and Solution Types A A preventative approachpreventative approach would attempt to would attempt to

curtail the structural roots for the conflict curtail the structural roots for the conflict before they erupt.before they erupt.

A A mitigating approachmitigating approach would attempt to would attempt to contain or reduce violence that has broken contain or reduce violence that has broken out. out.

An An uncoupling approach uncoupling approach would have a would have a greater focus on the trigger for conflict that greater focus on the trigger for conflict that lets loose accumulated stress built on lets loose accumulated stress built on structural forces. structural forces.

The Path ForwardThe Path Forward

IV.IV. These Conflicts are Not InevitableThese Conflicts are Not Inevitable A.A. Temperature: Controlling Temperature: Controlling

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases B.B. Arable Land: Rethinking Arable Land: Rethinking

AgricultureAgriculture C.C. Forests: National and Global ParksForests: National and Global Parks D.D. Water: Project Desalinization Water: Project Desalinization

Winners and Losers, Rich and Winners and Losers, Rich and PoorPoor

Terra-forming the PlanetTerra-forming the Planet Inter-generational IssuesInter-generational Issues

V. The Social Dimensions of V. The Social Dimensions of Climate Change and EquityClimate Change and Equity