from recession to recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/events/conferences/global... · from...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
From Recession to RecoveryMonday, April 26, 2010
8:00 AM 9:15 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM
ModeratorMichael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute
SpeakersMohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific Investment
M t C (PIMCO)
1
Management Co. (PIMCO) Steve Forbes, Chairman and CEO, Forbes Media; Editor-in-Chief, Forbes
Kenneth Griffin, Founder, President and CEO, Citadel Investment Group LLCMarc Lasry, Chairman and CEO, Avenue Capital Group
![Page 2: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A lost decadeThe U.S. economy had its worst decade since the 1930s
7Real GDP growth (%)
6.0%
4.2% 4.4%
3.3% 3.1% 3.2%
1.9%2
3
4
5
6
2
1.3%
0
1
2
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000sSource: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
![Page 3: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
8.2 million total job losses
Average monthly change in employmentThousands of nonfarm workers
-31-191
-334-477
-261
-90
54
600
-400
-200
0
200
4008.2 million workers lost their jobs
December 2007- March 2010
3Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-652-753
477
-1000
-800
-600
Q1: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1: 2010
![Page 4: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Americans’ net worth is down by 12 trillion from its 2007 peak
70US$ trillions Household's net worth Pre-recession peak:
$65.9 trillion
30
40
50
60
Fourth quarter, 2009$54.2 trillion
4
Source: Federal Reserve.
20
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2008 2009
![Page 5: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Deep recession, strong recovery?
Average real GDP growth rates (%) in the four quartersfollowing each recession
2.6%
7.8%
6.2%
10.9%
1990-1991
1981-1982
1973-1975
1929-1933
following each recessionPeriods of Recession
Real GDP grew10.9% in 1934, the year after the Great
5
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; the Milken Institute.
1.9%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2007-20XX
2001year after the Great Depression ended.
?
![Page 6: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Large reductions in the world real GDP growth
10Real GDP (% change, year-to-year)
Emerging andProjected
-2
0
2
4
6
8 World
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
6
-6
-4
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
economies
2014
![Page 7: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
World stock market capitalization still 23% below its peak level (as of April 20, 2010)
70US$ trillions
30
40
50
60 Highest point: $62.6 trillion on October 31, 2007
$48 trillion as of April 20, 2010
Lowest point: $25.6 trillion
7Source: Bloomberg.
10
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
on March 9, 2009
![Page 8: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Forecasts of positive real GDP growth rates
Real GDP growth (%) (Quarterly percentage change, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate)
2.1
-0.7
1.5
-2.7-0.7
2.2
5.9
3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.9
6-4-202468
( yp g g y j )
Composite forecasts
8
Note: Composite forecasts are average forecasts of 27 private organizations. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bloomberg.
-5.4-6.4
-10-8-6
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007 2008 2009 2010 2011
![Page 9: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance
700Thousands
6.6 million people receiving jobless b fit f J 2009
400
500
600 4.56 million(as of March 31, 2010)
benefits as of June, 2009
9Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
200
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
![Page 10: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Retail sales climbed in MarchA sign showing American consumers were beginning to spend more
400US$ billions Monthly total retail sales, seasonally adjusted
300
350
+1.6% in March
10Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
2502000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Shade area indicates recession
![Page 11: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Turnaround stock markets
300015,000
Nasdaq9001,800
1500
2000
2500
7,500
10,000
12,500
Nasdaq (right scale)
D J400
500
600
700
800
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600 Russell 2000 (right scale)
S&P 500(left scale)
11Source: DataStream.
500
1000
5,000
,
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Dow Jones(left scale)
200
300
400
600
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
![Page 12: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Narrowing risk spread Indicative of the reduced stress in the debt markets
5Percentage points
Oct 10, 2008
2
3
4 TED spread
BAA-AAA spread
12
Note: The TED spread is the difference between 3-month LIBOR rates and the yield on 3-month U.S. Treasury bills.The BAA-AAA spread is the difference between the interest rates on high-grade and medium-grade corporate bonds.
Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve.
0
1
![Page 13: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Unemployment rate near the highest level since Great Depression
12 Unemployment rate: 9.7%%
Unemployment rate: 10.8%
4
6
8
10
Unemployment rate: 9.7% in March, 2010
during the 1981-1982 recession
13Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
0
2
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
![Page 14: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Involuntary part-time or underemployed hits the highest level in 50 years
7 000
Thousands Part-time employment for economic reasons
2 000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Part-time due to slack work or business conditions
14Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
0
1,000
2,000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Could only find part-time work
2010
![Page 15: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
One in four black, Hispanic workers is underemployed
26Underemployment rates by race(%)
Hispanic or Latino 23.2%
1012141618202224
White 13.7%
African American 23.1%
15
468
10
Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Nov-09
Note: the shown underemployment data are from November, 2009. Underemployed includes the unemployed, involuntary part-time, and discouraged workers.Source: The Economic Policy Institute.
![Page 16: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
8.5Percent
Job creation still a problemRate of job creation and destruction
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6 0
Job destruction
20092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
6.0
5.5
5.0
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Economy.com
Job creation
16
![Page 17: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Small businesses account for nearly half the decline in job creation
Change between 2007 and Q1 2009
Total change in job
0-100 employees48.5%
>1000 employees27.1%
Total change in job creation = -1,648 ths.
100-1000 employees24.5%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Economy.com
17
![Page 18: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
60 percent of current decline in job creation stems from small businesses versus 26 percent in previous recession
60Percent
Job creation with <100 employees
50
40
30
20
Job creation with <100 employeesJob destruction with <100 employees
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Economy.com
Q1 2008- Q2 2009Q1 2001- Q2 2002
10
0
18
![Page 19: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Nearly 1 in 4 homeowners underwater
70States with negative equity share > 20%
as of Q4: 2009
% negative equity
23% 24%
0102030405060
Q
Q3, 2009
Q4, 2009
19
0
Note: The data only include properties with a mortgage.Source: First American CoreLogic .
![Page 20: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Banks are still pulling back on lendingNo bank lending, no recovery
US$ trillionsLending by the U.S. commercial banks
fell by 7 5% in 2009
7
8$ fell by 7.5% in 2009
20Note: The data are loan balances (net loans and leases ) of all U.S. commercial banks.Source: Quarterly Banking Profile, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
6Q1, 2008 Q2, 2008 Q3, 2008 Q4, 2008 Q1, 2009 Q2, 2009 Q3, 2009 Q4, 2009
![Page 21: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Households are deleveraging U.S. households need to reduce their debt to more manageable level
U.S. household debt (% of disposable personal income)
50
100
150
Economists see 100% as a sustainable level
Total household debt stood at 123% as of the end of 2009
21Source: Federal Reserve.
01950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
123% as of the end of 2009
![Page 22: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Upward trend of U.S. saving rate
14U.S. personal saving rate (% of disposable personal income)%
4
6
8
10
12
14
The saving rate has started to increase following a decades-
long decline.
22
0
2
Q1 1960 Q1 1970 Q1 1980 Q1 1990 Q1 2000 Q4 2009Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
![Page 23: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Consumer borrowing still declined
8
% change of total consumer credit from a previous year, seasonally adjusted%
8-6-4-202468 +5.2% in
January
-5.6% in
23Source: Federal Reserve.
-14-12-10-8
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Feb-10
5.6% in February
![Page 24: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Growing personal bankruptcy filingsThe total number of bankruptcy filings = 1.47 million in 2009
800
Thousands The number of quarterly bankruptcy filings in the federal courts
200
400
600
800
Business bankruptcy filingsPersonal bankruptcy filingsTotal
24
Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
0
200
Q1 1995 Q1 1997 Q1 1999 Q1 2001 Q1 2003 Q1 2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009
![Page 25: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Global economic forecastsEmerging market economies will lead the world growth
8 08.59
% Real GDP growth forecasts by key countries/regions (average 2010-2014)
1 42.1
3.94.6 4.8 4.9
8.0
2345678
(average 2010 2014)
25Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.
1.4 1.1
012
Western Europe
Japan United States
Latin America
MENA Brazil Asia India China
![Page 26: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The U.S. dollar
0 9120
Trade weight exchange index (January 1997 = 100) Euro/US$
0 6
0.7
0.8
0.9
100
105
110
115
120Euro/US$ (right axis)
26Source: Federal Reserve.
0.5
0.6
90
95
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Trade weighted (left axis)
![Page 27: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
U.S. current account deficit
50US$ billions U.S. current account, seasonally adjusted
-150
-100
-50
0
27
-250
-200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009Source: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
![Page 28: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Parallel relationship between stock marketperformance and the unemployment rate
12
14000
16000 Dow Jones hits 11,000; unemployment rate nears 10%U l t t (%)
4
6
8
10
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000 p yUnemployment rate (%)(right- axis)
Dow Jones (left- axis)
28Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; DataStream.
0
2
0
2000
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
(left- axis)
![Page 29: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
U.S. fiscal position is in a free fall
400Federal surplus [+] or deficit [-], fiscal yearUS$ billions
-1,000-800-600-400-200
0200
29Source: The Office of Management and Budget, White House.
-1,600-1,400-1,200
,
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Shade area indicates recession
![Page 30: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
President Obama's budget will generate nearly $10 trillion in budget deficits over the next 10 yearsFederal Budget (US$ billions)
US$9.761 trillion total deficit from 2011 to 2020
-1,000
-800-600-400-200
0( $ )
30Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
-1,600-1,400-1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual CBO's estimate of federal budget for fiscal year 2011
![Page 31: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
National debt will reach 90% of GDP in the next decade
100% of GDP Federal debt held by public
30405060708090
201063% of GDP, or$9.2 trillion
202090% of GDP, or$20.3 trillion
31Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
01020
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CBO's estimate
![Page 32: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Change in the world economic power China and India are larger in the world economy
Real GDP (PPP dollars), share of world total20091991
United States20%
China12%
Rest of the world
47%
2009United States22%
China4%
Japan
Rest of the world
48%
1991
32Sources: International Monetary Fund, The Milken Institute.
Japan6%
India5%Germany
4%
U.K.3%
France3%
Japan9%
India3%
Germany6%
U.K.4%
France4%
![Page 33: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Kenneth Griffin’s Slides
33
![Page 34: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Residential real estate loan delinquency rate
34
![Page 35: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Personal transfer payments
35
![Page 36: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Household’s net worth (as a % of disposable personal income)
36
![Page 37: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Unemployment and underemployment
37
![Page 38: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Continuing claims and insured unemployment
38
![Page 39: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Federal outlays: interest
39
![Page 40: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Entitlements and interest
40
![Page 41: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Federal on-budget surplus/deficit [-]
41
![Page 42: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Share of individual income tax liabilities:top 10 percent
42
![Page 43: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Share of income: highest 5 percent of families
43
![Page 44: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Share of individual income tax liabilities:middle income quintile
44
![Page 45: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Median income of households
45
![Page 46: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Establishment survey of employment
46
![Page 47: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Wage and salary disbursements
47
![Page 48: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Nonfarm business productivity: Output per person
48
![Page 49: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Nonfarm business: output per person
49
![Page 50: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Consumer loans:credit cards and other revolving plans
50
![Page 51: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
ICSC-Goldman Sachs weekly retail chain store sales
51
![Page 52: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Home equity withdrawal: mortgages less residential construction
52
![Page 53: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
When will Americans’ total net worth return to the peak it saw in the middle of 2007? Your choices are:peak it saw in the middle of 2007? Your choices are:
A. By the end of 2010B. First 2011C Second Half 2011C. Second Half 2011D. 2012E. 2013 or Later
53
![Page 54: From Recession to Recoveryassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM8:00 AM - 9:15 AM9:15 AM Moderator](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071008/5fc54dae6f5a4a05bd7c0604/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
In the 79 years from 1930 to 2008, how many years did the U S Government have a budget surplus?did the U.S. Government have a budget surplus?
A. 2B. 9C. 13C. 13D. 22E. 36
54