Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability & Adaptation

Capacity in the Limpopo Basin Part of Botswana

Opha Pauline Dube

Department of Environmental science

University of Botswana

From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho, B.P. Parida, seated in front, Sennye Masike and Elisha Toteng and far back, Pauline Dube.

Aim: - Build capacity in Assessing Impacts of Climate Change

- Provide a pool of locally relevant information on:

Impacts of Climate Change on food and Water,

The degree of vulnerability & the capacity to adapt to climate change in the Limpopo basin

locally based adaptation strategies & how these can be enhance

Overall goal: Assist decision makers and international efforts to address climate change impacts, vulnerability& adaptation

Limpopo Basin

North East District – 11/01/01

0

200

400

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1000

1915 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999

Years

Ra

infa

ll(m

m)

Rainfall Mean

North East District

Bobirwa Sub-District

Bobonong Village

100

300

500

700

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1100

1964 1968 1972 1976 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

Years

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Rainfall

Kgatleng District Site

Why Limpopo Basin?

• One of the 5 largest surface water bodies in sub-Saharan Africa found in Southern Africa - covers

3720 000 km2 of Bots., Zim., SA & Mozambique.

• Subjected to frequent climate extremes e.g.:1991/92 droughts & the 1999/2000 floods.

• Forms all river systems in eastern Botswana - Major source of water and alluvial deposits for >70% of rainfed and irrigation agriculture.

• Over half of Botswana’s population and major urban growth centres occur in the Limpopo Basin

Crops/Forests

Livestock

Wildlife

Water Demand Valuation +

Vulnerability Assessment

Fire

Adaptation StrategiesOptions

RainfallTemp

Climate Change

Human Population

Water Supply

Land Use/CoverChange

NatureTourism

Study Components and Inter-relationships

General Questions:

• What will be the impact of climate Change on

food and water in the Limpopo Basin?

• How vulnerable is food production/ food security

and water supply to climate change?

• What is the adaptation capacity/options for

communities in the Limpopo basin?

Basic Approach:

• Establish past (20 years) and current status• Model future trends - 20 years - under climate change• Use findings from 1 and 2 determine vulnerability -

discuss results with communities and other stakeholders.

• Work out adaptation strategies and implementation schemes at different levels – includes active stakeholder participation.

• Communicate results widely in the basin at national, regional and international level.

General objectives:• Establish past & present status of food (F) production,

water (W) supply & demand in the Basin• Establish past & recent responses to climate variability

in the F & W sectors. • Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on W & F using a

range of IPCC based climate & national socio-economic scenarios.

• Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin to CC on the F & W sectors

• Determine indigenous adaptation capacity & mitigation options against adverse impacts

• Contribute in increasing awareness to CC issues in southern Africa

Acquisition of relevant local scale data – A time consuming process

• Climate data – in digital format & available within a short time - this is exceptional

• For other data sets the situation is different –

• Phane caterpiller- No production figures for such forest products - Phane export figures from Government’s Customs &

Excise Dept. are aggregated with other exported different types of small protein sources.

- Original Phane records are destroyed every 3 Yrs -lack of storage & computerisation.

• Livestock Wildlife - locality statistics is lost -Aggregates over administration regions, not in digital form are kept-Problem of a basin study – the administrative regions usually overlap with other areas outside the basin.

Fire data - No system of archiving fire data although visual based fire

reports are made every year. - Existing records are inconsistent, incomplete in terms of seasons or for a particular fire report & available for recent years - 1996-2001- Areal extent and location of burn are only rough estimates.

0.1

5.1

10.1

15.1

20.1

25.1

Locations

Are

a b

urn

t (h

a)

hactares

Estimates of Area burnt Francistown region

Kgatleng site fires records accessible from ARB - April-June 2002

Place Outbreak Date

Area (km)

Repoter Cause Control Remarks/

Monametsana 25-04 - Police-Mochudi

Not known

Same day- Police &Volteers

Cost-P196-putting out

Dikgonne/Masuathaga

16/05 - Police-Mochudi

Not Known

17/05-local &Botswana Police, Volteers & Wildlife employees

Cost – P7704.30 to put out

Morwa/Ditejwane

26/05 - No data Not known

Public on 27/05

-

* Current fire management systems is in-effective – If fire incidents increase in future communities will be vulnerable

Some progress• Water supply: Past climate, evaporation and soil data assembled

and a stable research assistant secured.• Some Results: Declining trend in annual rainfall over 28 years but

no clear trend for runoff coefficient.

• Water Demand: Hardcopy information converted to digital form. Results from one site:

• Domestic sector - 50% of water demand & within this Private Connections takes over 70%

overall water demand

0

500000

1000000

1500000

Year

1992

1995

1999

years

tota

l w

ate

r d

em

an

d i

n C

ub

ic

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ters overall water

demand

Phane Exports inStudy Areas

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50

100

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1999 2000 2001 2002

Production Season

Dry

Ph

an

e (t

on

s)

Bobonong

Francistown

Selibe Phikwe

Table 2. Prices of common crops (1993/94 prices) compared to Phane (1992-94)

Product Yield (kg/ha) Produce (kg) Price (P/kg) Income (P)

Sorghum (3ha) 132 400 0.39 156.00Maize (3ha) 46 138 0.36 49.68Beans (3ha) 86 258 0.85 219.30Millet (3ha) 142 426 0.31 132.06Phane 7 bags x 32 kg 224 4.71 1055.04Grapple (Devil's Claw)

Phane Caterpiller –adaptation option for periods of crop failure

Host Mophane plant in Southern Africa

Fig. 5

Phane caterpillar = Larvae of Imbrasia belina Westwood moth(Emperor Moth) (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae)

(Ditlhogo, 1996)

Fig. 1

**The reproduction cycle is sensitive to climate

Vulnerability and adaptation• Eco-tourism: An MSc students works on potential of

ecotourism in the basin.

• Results- The basin is rich in cultural heritage sites but these under utilized.

- Flourishing tourism is wildlfe based -has limited direct benefit to local communities

• Institutions & Policy: Msc student focusing on: Institutional and policy framework impact on vulnerability and

adaptation capacity

• Results- Most policies do not consider vulnerability to climate. - There are some short-term drought relief schemes

implemented from time to time

- Another MSc student - Sources of rural livelihoods -

vulnerability and adaption to drought over time

Vulnerability and adaptation sections provide a gateway to access & involving stakeholder

• Other links to stakeholders & National Communications:

• Stakeholder meeting - June 2002

• AF42 – participated in 1st Meeting of the GEF/SGP on Climate Change Networking Group linked to the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC)

• AF42 PI represents the University of Botswana (UB) at NCCC & also at the National Conservation Strategy Board

• Research Permit – comments from Office of the Presidents

• At a regional – information on AF42 disseminated via the Southern Africa Network – AF42 fire component

Constrains

• Internet services

• IT services

• Institutional backing

• Manpower resources

Next Focus of the study:

• Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on Water & Food Climate & socio-economic scenarios.

• Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin communities to CC on the Food & Water

• Work out adaptation strategies & mitigation options against adverse impacts