from vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “and then a...

39
From vending machines to global finance machines

Upload: others

Post on 19-Apr-2020

9 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

From vending machines to global finance machines

Page 2: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

What are smart contracts?

Definition #1: a

machine

programmed with

rules we could

have defined in a

contract; instead

machine performs

or verifies

performance

Page 3: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

What are smart contracts?

#2: two parties agree to run software

between them, or one party and the

blockchain

#3: long-lived blockchain process that

handles money & blockchain-titled

assets

“distributed application” or “fiduciary

process”

Page 4: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Tech often challenges legal categories

• “UberCab” vs. ride-sharing

• Bitcoin: currency or

commodity?

• Vaping: smoker or non-

smoker?

• “Are smart contracts

enforceable”? Is that even

a meaningful question?

Page 5: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Relationship between smart

contracts and traditional law

• A smart contract, like the repo man, is a security protocol that controls the burden of lawsuit

• If “possession is 9/10 of the law”, then a cross-border, blockchain-based financial smart contract may be 99%+ of the law

• Do smart contracts need to be legally enforceable? (Do courts needs to examine the guts of a vending machine to figure out what the parties intended?)

Page 6: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Smart vs. traditional contracts

Traditional contract: verbal text on paper text on computer – wet code interpreted by brain

Smart contract: rules / conditions analyzed & executed, as in vending machine -- dry code interpreted by machine

Some dry rules are more like rules from property, corporate, etc. deeds and charters, or from statutes or regulations, than from contracts: to make more distinctions with our metaphors we can think of “smart property”, “distributed autonomous organizations”, even “smart law”

Page 7: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Fiduciary (trusted) vs. fiduciary

process (smart contract)

If the public blockchain

has the money, it has

to treat it according to

its rules

Page 8: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Why smart contracts?

Secure a wide variety of desiderata

Costs of trust and security

Especially keen across borders: different

languages, laws, jurisdictions

Security = vulnerability minimization =

trust minimization

e.g. a financial transaction that minimizes

need to trust human institution(s) for its

integrity

Page 9: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Trusted strangers are security holes

• Tempting in

security protocol

design, but it’s a

cheat: “And then

a miracle occurs”

• Must be plugged

by highly evolved

institution or

blockchain

Minimize trust

assumptions

Page 10: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum
Page 11: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Decentralization per computer

science is much more automated

& secure than traditional security

Computer Science

Page 12: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Centralization is insecure

Page 13: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Insecurity drives up costs and gets you stuck

inside national silos

Biggest reason

traditional

finance is stuck

inside national

silos: it

depends on

governments

for its security.

"We appreciate the strong

partnership with law enforcement

in bringing the criminals to

justice” – J.P. Morgan spokesman

#JPMorgan Hack — Three Men

Charged in Biggest Bank Hack

in History (Identity Theft)

Page 14: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Public and global

Bitcoin Ethereum

Page 15: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Decentralization per computer

science is much more automated

& secure than traditional security

Computer Science

Page 16: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Diversity -> Independence -> Less Likelihood of

Collusion

Page 17: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Geopolitical insecurity (example: gold)

Page 18: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Geopolitically insecure finance

Russian holdings of Treasury bonds

Goldman Sachs collateral for DRs etc.

between U.S. and Russia: $100s of

millions

Visa & Mastercard for credit card

clearing between U.S. and Russia :

$100s of millions

Off on technicality: Argentine debt

default

Page 19: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Global Finance Machines

Security that:

• Doesn’t depend on politics, jurisdiction, or law

• Works seamlessly across borders: same rules in Albania and Zimbabwe, Estonia and Venezuela, China and the United States

Examples:

• Bitcoin: geopolitically secure currency• secure asset registry / title transfer

• Ethereum: geopolitically secure computer• secure financial instruments

Page 20: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Global Financial Machines

Page 21: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Examples and patterns

Dispute mediation

“Oracles”: input from the fallible world

Assurance contracts

Thought experiment: insurance

Page 22: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Dispute Mediation

2-of-3 multisig transaction between

2 parties

escrow/mediator

Page 23: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

“Oracles”: input from the fallible

world On-chain programs can check for some

obvious kinds of fraud and error

Traditional source of fiduciary data: Birth and death certificates

Stock prices

Cryptography can protect integrity of transmission from source to blockchain

Fraud usually happens at the source (hard for oracles to protect against this) LIBOR scandal: manipulating the market itself

Forgery

Page 24: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Pools & assurance contracts

e.g. Kickstarter

Many parties send transactions to on-

blockchain pool

Blockchain code keeps track of total

When total > threshold funds

distributed to beneficiary

Expires without total > threshold

funds sent back to donors

Page 25: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Could it be the

lawyers that will

be replaced by

the robots?

Page 26: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Thought experiment: let’s try to replace the

insurance industry

Insured pays into blockchain pool

Insured makes claim

Claims adjuster(s) decide whether claim is valid & amount of damages damages released from pool to customer

Benefits: Public / transparent / auditable

Payments works seamlessly across borders (public blockchains only)

Don’t need permission of middleman: business is between the claims adjustor(s) & the insured

Page 27: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Problems with “smart insurance”

Problems:

Trustworthiness of & law governing claims

adjusters

Who sets rates & based on what actuarial

criteria (underwriting)

How are claims adjusters paid

Page 28: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Underwriting:

subjective (more

wet than dry)?

Page 29: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Claims

adjustment:

more wet

than dry

Page 30: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Interpretation & complexity

Dry code –> harsh results in presence of unanticipated exceptions

Anticipating edge cases: More conditions more complicated dry code

(software) & more reliance on fallible external data

Fewer conditions more role for human mediators more bias, whim, corruption, locality

Page 31: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Wet (traditionnal K) vs. dry (smart K) code

Law Software

Logic grounds

on

subjective

minds,

analogy

boolean logic,

bits

Security contempt/impr

isonment

replication +

cryptography

Predictability flexible rigid

Maturity highly evolved

/ many cases

larval / few

experiences

Page 32: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Wet (traditional K) vs. dry (smart K) code

Law Software

Area jurisdictional

silos

(on blockchain)

independence

from financial &

political

institutions &

seamless

operation across

borders

Costs lawsuits:

expensive

extremely low

Page 33: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Lessons from our thought

experiment

To take best advantage of blockchain,

we need to use best of blockchain tech

(public blockchains) with best of

traditional finance (claims adjustors,

stable investments, etc.)

Finance industry people who want to

operate with crippled blockchains (private

blockchains) are wrong

Purists think we can do everything with

public blockchains are wrong

Page 34: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum
Page 35: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Lessons from our thought

experiment

Smart contracts on blockchain provide

plumbing for financial aspects of service

which can seamlessly cross trust

boundaries (e.g. national borders)

Smart contracts don’t solve “wet”

problems (e.g. claims adjustment &

estimating risks -> setting fees)

Page 36: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Simplification?

Page 37: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Conclusion

Vending machine global finance

machine

Wet vs. dry code

Simplification?

Page 38: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Nick Szabo

[email protected]

Page 39: From vending machines to global finance machinese1775ba6-2ad5-4aac... · cheat: “And then a miracle occurs” ... #JPMorgan Hack —Three Men ... Public and global Bitcoin Ethereum

Basic Copyright Notice & Disclaimer

©2016 This presentation is copyright protected. All rights reserved.

You may download or print out a hard copy for your private or internal use.

You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivatives of this

presentation without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

This presentation is for information purposes only and contains non-

binding indications. Any opinions or views expressed are of the author and

do not necessarily represent those of Swiss Re. Swiss Re makes no

warranties or representations as to the accuracy, comprehensiveness,

timeliness or suitability of this presentation for a particular purpose. Anyone

shall at its own risk interpret and employ this presentation without relying

on it in isolation. In no event will Swiss Re be liable for any loss or

damages of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential

damages, arising out of or in connection with the use of this presentation.