frontier pt1

Strategy Renaissance Capital

X January 2016

Figure 238: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 239: Economic outlook

ARS 2015 2016 2017

-/- 0.4 -0.7 0.0

13.4% 13,428 13,284 13,386

MXAR 43.1 43.6 44.0

10.4 19.3 26.4 25.2

16.9% -1.8 -1.6 -1.2

1.4 -4.9 -4.8 -5.3

1.5

20.6

11.6

8

19.3

IBG

194.5

70

19.8

Figure 240: Index and stock data

MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI

($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)

MXAR 20,595 -0.9 -12.8 4.2 9.9 1.4 20.8 54 13.4

YPF UN 6,277 -2.0 -23.5 -30.6 9.2 1.0 8.0 11 26.1

GGAL UR 3,470 0.7 0.4 62.0 10.3 3.6 30.0 5 21.4

BMA UN 3,496 6.6 -4.1 59.0 8.4 3.5 31.7 5 20.9

TEO UN 2,999 -6.4 -19.4 -20.5 9.5 2.6 24.5 9 12.4

BFR UN 3,436 -1.4 -17.2 33.2 11.4 3.8 31.1 3 7.9

AGRO UN 1,414 -6.1 10.5 48.0 20.5 2.7 8.6 10 4.6

PZE UN 1,210 4.9 -2.0 27.4 7.7 1.3 na 2 3.9

GLOB UN 1,003 -21.6 -13.7 108.5 25.4 6.4 19.1 9 2.8

GCLA AR 2,454 -13.7 -26.8 50.2 na 4.9 37.3 2 -

ALUA AR 1,864 -25.1 -35.0 -20.7 na 3.5 na 1 -

PAMP AR 1,540 0.4 -33.3 40.5 25.9 4.2 29.8 2 -

ERAR AR 2,484 -15.8 -32.0 -23.9 14.8 1.7 8.5 2 -

PATA AR 615 -6.4 -19.2 -31.6 na 4.1 na 0 -

BHIP AR 602 -9.7 -37.8 -23.4 na 1.7 na 1 -

TGSU2 AR 920 -11.9 -32.0 31.3 65.5 6.8 15.5 1 -

LEDE AR 358 -17.1 -12.9 -3.2 na 3.4 na 0 -

IRCP AR 994 -7.4 -37.4 1.2 na 12.9 na 0 -

MOLI AR 1,350 -14.9 4.7 25.6 na 8.7 na 0 -

Figure 241: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 242: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 243: MSCI sector weights

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

970 1.2

Molinos Rio Plat Cons. Staples 338 0.3

Patagonia-B Cons. Staples 615 0.0

Irsa Propiedades Financials 353 0.0

Grupo Clarin-B Cons. Disc. 2,454 0.0

1.2

Petrobras Ar-Adr Energy 423 0.2

Adecoagro Sa Cons. Staples 990

Globant Sa IT

Aluar Aluminio Materials

Cons. Staples 358 0.1

Banco Hipoteca Financials 602 0.1

Trans Gas Sur-B Energy 451 0.1

Ledesma Saai

1,864 0.8

Pampa Energia Sa Utilities

Figure 237: Key data

Local Currency

S&P / Moody's Rating

Weight in MSCI FM (%)

Argentina

3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos

Local Index

Trailing P/B

Beta to FM

MSCI Full MktCap, $bn

MSCI free float MktCap, $bn

No. of Companies

MSCI Index

2016 P/E

2016 EPS Growth

19.3

Ticker Name Sector

Real GDP (% YoY)

C/A balance (% of GDP)

Government balance (% of GDP)

CPI (year-end, %YoY)

3M ADTV ($mn)

$ Performance

GDP/Capita, $

Population, mn

FF Mkt Cap

($mn)

3MADTV

No. of Companies

MktCap ($bn)

Ypf Sa-Adr Energy 2,824 8.9

MSCI Argentina 11,620

Grupo Galici-Adr Financials 2,312

1.1

1,185

($mn)

1.6

Bbva Banco F-Adr Financials 859 1.3

3.3

Banco Macro -Adr Financials 2,268 2.9

Telecom Arge-Adr Telecoms 1,342

602 1.8

Siderar-A Materials

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Argentina, $ MSCI FM, $

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Argentina 3M ADTV ($mn)

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Argentina Frontier

50%

30%

12%

5% 3% Financials

Energy

Telecoms

Cons.StaplesIT

69


X January 2016

Figure 244: Population, '000 Figure 245: Export destinations, total $69bn

Source: UN Source: IMF

Figure 246: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 247: Argentina - peso

Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Figure 248: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 249: Real GDP % change, YoY

Source: IMF Source: IMF


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-2

-2

-1

-1

0

1

1

2

2

3

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)

0

50

100

150

200

250

3000.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0Ja

n-00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

ARS vs $ ARS vs EUR Argentina REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 9.0 9.2

8.48.0

3.1

0.1

9.5

8.4

0.8

2.9

0.5 0.4

-0.7

0.0 0.1

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Bra

zil

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Chi

na

US

A

Chi

le

Ven

ezue

la

Uru

guay

Indi

a

Net

herla

nds

% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

70


X January 2016


BHD 2015 2016 2017

BBB-/Baa3 3.4 3.2 2.8

2.2% 23,899 24,507 25,500

MXBH 1.3 1.3 1.3

7.4 1.6 2.6 1.9

-4.3% -4.8 -5.9 -5.4

1.2 -14.2 -13.9 -12.6

0.5

6.9

3.1

3

0.4

BHSEASI

18.3

41

0.9




MXBH 6,910 -1.3 -16.2 -23.9 8.1 1.2#N/A N/A 6 2.2

AUB KK 4,361 0.1 -2.9 -10.9 7.5 1.2 na 2 84.9

BATELCO BI 1,332 -5.0 -6.8 -8.5 7.1 1.0 na 2 10.8

ALBH BI 1,310 -4.3 -20.9 -29.0 na 0.5 -7.7 2 4.3

NBB BI 1,929 0.1 -3.5 -10.7 na 2.0 na 2 -

BBK BI 1,107 -10.6 -8.5 -13.8 na 1.2 na 0 -

SALAM BI 460 -12.8 -22.8 -33.1 na 0.5 na 0 -

GFH BI 327 -9.4 -12.1 -69.5 na 0.2 na 0 -

BMMI BI 330 -2.2 0.1 6.2 na 2.0 na 0 -

BISB BI 362 0.0 17.4 -21.0 na 1.3 na 0 -

BARKA BI 625 1.8 -10.4 -29.5 na 0.5 na 0 -

DUTYF BI 279 4.8 5.3 11.9 na 2.3 na 0 -

CINEMA BI 205 -9.9 -16.4 -24.0 na 1.8 na 0 -

BHOTEL BI 359 -3.1 -5.4 -3.7 na 1.9 na 0 -

ABC BI 1,555 17.6 0.0 -30.6 na 0.4 na 1 -

BCFC BI 331 0.0 9.2 9.2 na 1.2 na 0 -

ITHMR BI 333 -24.1 -29.0 -35.3 3.8 0.7 na 1 -

INVCORP BI 528 6.5 3.1 46.1 na 0.8 na 0 -

SEEF BI 238 -3.4 -2.5 -1.5 na 0.7 na 1 -


Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents


2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)

2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)

Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)

Beta to FM



BahrainFigure 250: Key data

Local Currency

S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)

Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $

MSCI Index Population, mn

$ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Bahrain 3,082 0.4

No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Ticker Name Sector

Bbk Bsc Financials 471 0.1

Al-Salam Bank Financials 364 0.1

Ahli United Bank Financials 2,618 0.4

Bahrain Telecom Telecoms 333 0.0

Aluminium Bahrai Materials 131 0.0

FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV

Albaraka Banking Financials 225 0.0

Bahrain Duty Fre Cons. Disc. 209 0.0

Bahrain Cinema Cons. Disc. 179 0.1

Gfh Financial Gr Financials 309 0.0

Bmmi Bsc Cons. Disc. 245 0.1

Bahrain Islamic Financials 231 0.0

Natl Bank Bahr Financials 1,061 0.1

Ithmaar Bank Bsc Financials 156 0.0

Investcorp Bk -$ Financials 132 0.0

Seef Properties Financials 116 0.1

Gulf Hotel Group Cons. Disc. 179 0.0

Arab Banking -$ Financials 170 0.1

Bahrain Comm Fac Financials 167 0.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Bahrain, $ MSCI FM, $

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Bahrain 3M ADTV ($mn)

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan-

16

Bahrain Frontier

85%

11%4%

Financials

Telecoms

Materials

1,000

1,200

1,400

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

-10

-5

10

15

20

25

71


X January 2016



Figure 259: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 260: Bahrain - dinar





0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-10

-5

0

5

10

15-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


90

100

110

120

130

1400.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Jan-

00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

BHD vs $ BHD vs EUR Bahrain REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)

7.0 6.86.5

8.3

6.2

2.5

4.3

2.1

3.6

5.3

4.5

3.4 3.22.8 2.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Sau

di A

rabi

a

EU

US

A

UA

E

Eur

o A

rea

Kor

ea

Japa

n

Indi

a

Ken

ya

Tan

zani

a


72


X January 2016


BDT 2015 2016 2017

BB-/Ba3 6.5 6.8 7.0

2.7% 1,266 1,356 1,463

MXBD 159.9 161.5 163.2

17.9 6.5 6.8 6.8

-3.5% -0.9 -1.1 -1.2

4.0 -3.2 -3.8 -3.6

0.3

9.1

2.1

5

4.0

DSEX

40.6

33

#DIV/0!




MXBD 9,087 0.5 -3.8 -16.4 19.1 4.0 30.7 3 2.7

SQUARE BD 2,019 0.1 3.7 11.0 17.3 5.1 22.8 1 47.0

GRAM BD 4,493 3.3 4.1 -21.7 16.1 11.2 69.7 1 20.9

LAFCEM BD 1,075 -1.0 -13.7 -42.4 37.7 6.4 14.5 1 17.5

RENATA BD 827 -1.3 0.7 45.4 na 8.1 na 0 7.7

TITASGAS BD 588 -0.9 -34.2 -38.6 na 0.8 na 0 6.8

OLYMPI BD 641 5.6 9.6 33.8 30.7 14.9 36.2 2 -

BXPHAR BD 426 1.5 20.3 59.2 na 1.6 na 0 -

BATBC BD 2,267 6.0 -0.1 -0.2 na 15.5 na 1 -

ISLAMI BD 535 -6.2 -7.9 8.7 9.3 0.9 na 1 -

BEXIMC BD 258 -0.4 9.6 7.6 na 0.4 na 0 -

BRAC BD 428 -2.3 1.0 18.2 10.3 1.7 15.9 1 -

ACI BD 278 -3.5 -2.3 74.8 na 5.2 na 0 -

PUBALI BD 240 -0.1 0.5 -11.3 na 0.9 na 0 -

SUMITPOW BD 415 -0.3 11.6 13.4 na 1.6 na 1 -

HEID BD 397 -2.8 -9.4 10.8 na 4.8 na 0 -

NBL BD 208 2.1 -3.9 -13.3 na 0.6 na 0 -

DELTAL BD 177 -9.0 21.7 -18.1 na 11.9 na 0 -

IDLC BD 198 0.3 3.1 0.7 na 2.4 na 0 -


Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index







BangladeshFigure 263: Key data

Local Currency


Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Bangladesh 2,149 4.0

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Renata Ltd Healthcare 165 0.1

Titas Gas Transm Energy 147 1.0

Olympic Inds Ltd Cons. Staples 439 0.6

Square Pharmaceu Healthcare 1,010 1.3

Grameenphone Ltd Telecoms 449 0.6

Lafarge Surma Ce Materials 377 0.9

Beximco Export Industrials 218 1.0

Brac Bank Ltd Financials 214 0.2

Aci Ltd Industrials 207 0.7

Beximco Pharmace Healthcare 370 1.7

Brit Amer Tobacc Cons. Staples 346 0.0

Islami Bank Bang Financials 299 0.2

Natl Bank Ltd Financials 153 0.1

Delta Life Insur Financials 141 0.6

Idlc Finance Financials 122 0.4

Pubali Bank Ltd Financials 177 0.0

Summit Power Ltd Utilities 174 0.7

Heidelberger Cem Materials 156 0.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Bulgaria, $ MSCI FM, $

0

5

10

15

20

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Bangladesh 3M ADTV ($mn)

55%

21%

17%

7%Healthcare

Telecoms

Materials

Energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan-

16

DSEX Index Frontier

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

73


X January 2016



Figure 272: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 273: Bangladesh - taka





0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-2

-1

-1

0

1

1

2

2

3

30

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1600.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0Ja

n-00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

BDT vs $ BDT vs EUR Bangladesh REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


6.1 6.36.9

6.5

5.5 5.3

6.06.5

6.3 6.06.3 6.5

6.87.0 7.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

EU

Eur

o A

rea

US

A

Ger

man

y

UK

Net

herla

nds

Fra

nce

Spa

in

Italy

Can

ada


74


X January 2016


BGN 2015 2016 2017

BB+/Baa2 1.7 1.9 2.0

0.1% 6,582 6,815 7,150

MXBU 7.2 7.1 7.1

na 0.3 0.9 1.5

na 1.0 0.2 -0.3

0.3 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2

0.5

0.3

0.1

2

0.0

SOFIX

1.3

15

0.1




MXBU 272 -4.5 -4.3 -29.8 na 0.3 na 2 0.1

5MB BU 161 -6.1 0.6 -10.3 na 1.6 na 2 59.6

6C4 BU 108 -7.2 -9.0 -27.3 na 0.1 na 0 40.4

5MH BU 107 -5.4 -3.7 -11.3 na 3.0 na 1 -

6A6 BU 98 1.8 2.5 -19.7 na 0.8 na 2 -

T57 BU 75 -8.1 -9.3 -14.1 na 1.3 na 0 -

3JR BU 197 -3.8 -1.5 -29.7 na 0.9 na 2 -

5V2 BU 65 -8.8 4.6 26.6 na 0.8 na 0 -

5SR BU 43 -7.7 0.0 -13.1 na 0.9 na 1 -

4ID BU 37 -7.8 -2.2 -24.6 na 0.3 na 0 -

4I8 BU 28 -0.2 0.9 -6.4 na 1.3 na 0 -

5F4 BU 135 -2.1 -8.7 -14.4 na 0.3 na 2 -

6AB BU 111 -6.8 -4.2 -15.0 na 0.5 na 0 -

5BU BU 18 4.0 10.9 -2.1 na 0.5 na 1 -

4CF BU 63 -4.9 -5.2 -8.8 na 0.3 na 0 -

3NB BU 68 -0.5 -0.4 20.7 na 1.6 na 0 -








BulgariaFigure 276: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Bulgaria 69 0.03

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Advance Ter-Reit Financials 98 0.02

Trace Group Hold Industrials 75 0.00

Sopharma Ad Healthcare 66 0.01

Monbat Ad Industrials 40 0.01

Chimimport Ad Industrials 28 0.02

M+S Hidravlik Industrials 107 0.00

Industrialen Cap Industrials 24 0.00

Cb First Financials 20 0.01

Albena Ad Cons. Disc. 20 0.01

Holding Varna A Financials 65 0.04

Stara Planina Ho Industrials 43 0.00

Industrial Holdi Industrials 37 0.00

Bulg-Real Est Fn Financials 18 0.01

Central Coop Bk Financials 11 0.01

Neochim Ad-Dimit Materials 11 0.00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Bulgaria, $ MSCI FM, $

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Bulgaria 3M ADTV ($mn)

100%

Industrials

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan-

16

n/a

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-10

-5

10

15

20

25

75


X January 2016



Figure 285: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 286: Bulgaria - lev





0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


60

70

80

90

100

110

1201.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Jan-

00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

BGN vs $ BGN vs EUR Bulgaria REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)6.6

6.06.5

6.9

5.8

-5.0

0.7

2.0

0.51.1

1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Ger

man

y

Italy

Tur

key

Rom

ania

Gre

ece

Fra

nce

Bel

gium

Sin

gapo

re


76


X January 2016


HRK 2015 2016 2017

BB/Ba1 0.8 1.0 1.7

1.4% 11,551 11,813 12,321

MXCR 4.2 4.2 4.2

11.8 0.4 1.3 1.7

-61.0% 1.7 1.5 1.2

0.8 -5.1 -4.4 -3.6

0.6

2.0

1.1

2

0.5

CRO

10.0

25

1.0




MXCR 1,954 -4.1 -6.6 -10.1 11.9 0.8 8.2 6 1.4

HTRA ZA 1,628 -3.8 -6.9 -15.3 11.4 1.0 8.8 2 71.1

ADRSPA ZA 988 -6.6 -6.7 -2.0 13.3 0.8 4.1 4 28.9

ZABARA CZ 1,695 1.3 5.4 4.7 na 0.7 na 0 -

PODRRA CZ 324 -3.7 -10.9 6.7 12.0 0.7 7.3 3 -

INARA CZ 3,833 -13.8 -15.6 -29.3 na 2.2 6.3 2 -

RIVPRA CZ 411 -4.1 -5.6 12.3 15.6 1.3 9.0 5 -

ATGRRA CZ 387 -2.6 -6.8 -14.6 11.5 1.4 11.4 4 -

KOEIRA CZ 233 -3.3 -8.8 -11.5 13.1 0.8 6.2 3 -

ERNTRA CZ 190 -2.9 -3.5 -25.5 12.7 4.0 33.8 4 -

KRASRA CZ 98 1.0 8.3 26.0 na 1.2 na 0 -

LKRIRA CZ 81 -2.7 -3.8 -40.2 na 0.8 na 0 -

TPNGRA CZ 87 -7.7 -13.7 5.1 9.2 1.0 na 1 -

ADPLRA CZ 56 -6.3 -10.0 5.5 8.8 0.6 6.0 2 -

MAISRA CZ 335 -2.8 -12.0 30.5 na 1.7 na 0 -

LKPCRA CZ 37 -9.0 -18.8 -7.3 na 0.6 na 0 -


Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents







CroatiaFigure 289: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Croatia 1,149 0.5

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Podravka Prehram Cons. Staples 252 0.1

Ina Industrija Energy 233 0.0

Valamar Riviera Cons. Disc. 188 0.1

Hrvatski Telekom Telecoms 817 0.4

Adris Grupa-Pref Cons. Staples 332 0.2

Zagrebacka Banka Financials 256 0.0

Kras Dd Cons. Staples 57 0.0

Luka Rijeka Dd Industrials 51 0.0

Tankerska Next G Industrials 47 0.0

Atlantic Grupa Cons. Staples 147 0.1

Koncar-Elektoin Industrials 98 0.0

Ericsson Nikola IT 97 0.0

Ad Plastik Dd Cons. Disc. 36 0.0

Maistra Dd Cons. Disc. 33 0.0

Luka Ploce Dd Industrials 27 0.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Croatia, $ MSCI FM, $

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Croatia 3M ADTV ($mn)

71%

29%

Telecoms

Cons.Staples

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan-

16

Croatia Frontier

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-10

-5

10

15

77


X January 2016



Figure 298: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 299: Croatia - kuna





0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


60

70

80

90

100

1101.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0Ja

n-00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

HRK vs $ HRK vs EUR Croatia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)4.1 4.2

4.8 5.2

2.1

-7.4

-1.7

-0.3

-2.2

-1.1-0.4

0.8 1.01.7 2.1

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

01

2345

6789

10

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Italy

Bos

nia

and

Her

ze

Slo

veni

a

Ger

man

y

Aus

tria

Ser

bia

Hun

gary

Rus

sia


78


X January 2016


EUR 2015 2016 2017

AA-/A1 2.0 2.9 3.0

0.5% 17,425 18,453 19,761

MXEST 1.3 1.3 1.3

8.6 0.4 2.1 2.0

9.6% 0.6 0.3 -0.1

0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5

0.6

0.9

0.4

2

0.5

TALSE

2.0

15

0.7




MXES 911 -0.8 3.4 2.7 8.6 0.9 8.1 5 0.5

TAL1T ET 625 -0.6 5.8 6.6 8.4 0.7 7.7 3 72.9

OEG1T ET 292 -2.3 -2.7 -5.6 8.8 2.5 25.3 2 27.1

TKM1T ET 297 -1.6 8.1 17.3 12.1 1.6 11.8 2 -

TVEAT ET 297 -0.9 -1.2 -8.2 14.1 3.3 21.7 2 -

PKG1T ET 136 4.0 -5.0 -11.9 na 1.5 -1.1 1 -

MRK1T ET 150 -9.4 -0.8 -2.4 12.8 1.1 8.2 2 -

SFG1T ET 52 -1.7 -2.0 -1.9 6.4 1.2 12.4 2 -

HAE1T ET 50 -2.0 1.9 -10.4 12.2 0.8 na 0 -

EEG1T ET 40 -6.9 0.3 2.8 6.6 0.8 10.3 1 -

PRF1T ET 16 -1.2 3.9 -46.3 18.6 0.4 na 0 -

BLT1T ET 14 -8.4 4.6 -34.2 10.1 1.8 na 0 -

NCN1T ET 35 -5.3 -1.8 -7.9 9.0 0.9 7.6 2 -

ARC1T ET 7 -1.4 9.4 12.9 8.2 0.7 na 0 -

SKN1T ET 4 0.7 -0.9 -14.8 na 0.6 na 0 -

TPD1T ET 2 -15.2 -12.8 -3.2 na 0.9 na 0 -









EstoniaFigure 302: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Estonia 430 0.5

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

As Tallinna Vesi Utilities 76 0.1

Pro Kapital Grup Financials 67 0.0

As Merko Ehitus Industrials 41 0.0

Tallink Group Industrials 313 0.3

Olympic Entertai Cons. Disc. 116 0.2

Tallinna Kaubama Cons. Staples 90 0.0

Prfoods As Cons. Staples 13 0.0

Baltika As Cons. Disc. 10 0.0

Nordecon As Industrials 8 0.0

Silvano Fashio-A Cons. Disc. 32 0.0

Harju Elekter Industrials 19 0.0

Ekspress Grupp A Cons. Disc. 16 0.0

Arco Vara As Financials 4 0.0

Skano Group As Cons. Disc. 1 0.0

As Trigon Proper Financials 0 0.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Estonia, $ MSCI FM, $

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Estonia 3M ADTV ($mn)

73%

27%

Industrials

Cons.Disc.

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan-

16

TALSE Index Frontier

1,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-20

-15

-10

-5

10

15

20

25

79


X January 2016



Figure 311: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 312: Estonia - kroon/euro





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

40

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan-

00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

EUR vs $ Estonia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


6.3

9.4 10.3

7.7

-5.4

-14.7

2.5

7.6

5.2

1.62.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.2

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Sw

eden

Fin

land

Latv

ia

Rus

sia

Lith

uani

a

Ger

man

y

Nor

way

Net

herla

nds


80


X January 2016


JOD 2015 2016 2017

BB-/B1 2.9 3.7 4.5

0.8% 5,600 5,862 6,145

MXJO 6.8 7.0 7.1

8.2 1.9 2.5 2.3

17.8% -7.4 -6.5 -6.2

0.7 -3.0 -3.2 -3.3

0.3

6.1

0.6

2

0.7

JOSMGNFF

22.1

100

8.9




MXJO 6,086 -3.2 -1.5 -5.0 8.0 0.7 8.4 5 0.8

ARBK JR 5,506 -3.3 -2.3 1.0 8.2 0.7 8.4 4 88.9

JOPH JR 571 -1.1 0.0 -16.8 6.4 0.5 7.6 1 11.1

JOPT JR 461 2.3 9.7 17.7 na 2.2 na 1 -

THBK JR 3,323 0.8 0.8 3.0 16.7 2.5 14.9 2 -

JOIB JR 752 0.4 9.4 -3.4 na 1.9 na 1 -

JOEP JR 300 13.0 9.5 -2.7 na 1.9 na 0 -

CABK JR 563 1.4 13.8 3.3 8.6 1.0 14.6 1 -

BOJX JR 627 8.9 18.3 4.5 9.5 1.3 14.1 1 -

EICO JR 592 -1.0 13.3 36.7 na 5.7 na 0 -

AHLI JR 313 1.8 6.0 -5.8 na 0.7 na 0 -

JOKB JR 573 1.9 10.8 -3.7 na 0.9 na 0 -

UBSI JR 251 6.7 9.6 1.2 na 0.7 na 0 -

AJIB JR 404 0.2 3.4 -9.4 na 1.5 na 0 -

AIEI JR 228 0.2 -2.3 -8.2 na 1.9 na 0 -

JTEL JR 986 -15.5 35.5 -15.1 na 2.2 na 0 -

RJAL JR 64 -6.5 -6.9 -5.3 4.9 0.4 na 2 -

APOT JR 2,347 -4.2 -6.8 6.5 14.5 1.9 12.6 1 -

EXFB JR 266 3.1 3.1 -24.0 na 0.7 na 0 -








JordanFigure 315: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Jordan 620 0.7

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Housing Bank Financials 253 0.0

Jordan Islamic B Financials 184 0.1

Jordanian Electr Utilities 184 0.1

Arab Bank Plc Financials 551 0.6

Jordan Phosphate Materials 69 0.1

Jordan Petroleum Energy 323 0.3

Jordan Ahli Bank Financials 135 0.0

Jordan Kuwait Bk Financials 109 0.0

Bank Al Etihad Financials 82 0.0

Cairo Amman Bank Financials 165 0.2

Bank Of Jordan Financials 159 0.2

Al Eqbal Co For Cons. Staples 150 0.6

Royal Jordanian Industrials 57 0.3

Arab Potash Materials 49 0.0

Capital Bank Of Financials 47 0.0

Arab Jordan Inv Financials 78 0.0

Arab Internation Cons. Disc. 76 0.0

Jordan Telecom Telecoms 70 0.3

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Jordan, $ MSCI FM, $

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Jordan 3M ADTV ($mn)

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Jordan Frontier

89%

11% Financials

Materials

81


X January 2016



Figure 324: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 325: Jordan - dinar





0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1400.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan-

00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

JOD vs $ JOD vs EUR Jordan REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 8.68.1 8.1 8.2

7.2

5.5

2.32.6 2.7 2.8

3.1 2.9

3.7

4.5 4.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

US

A

Iraq

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Indi

a

EU

UA

E

Eur

o A

rea

Syr

ia

Chi

na

Kuw

ait


82


X January 2016


KZT 2015 2016 2017

BBB/Baa2 1.5 2.4 3.8

1.6% 11,028 9,650 10,720

MXKZ 17.7 17.9 18.2

7.6 9.0 8.0 7.0

-47.6% -3.0 -4.1 -2.1

0.5 -3.2 -0.2 0.5

1.4

3.8

1.3

2

2.3

KZKAK

7.1

9

0.3




MXKA 3,809 -10.8 -13.3 -43.1 7.1 0.5 16.7 24 1.6

KMG LI 2,737 -7.6 -4.2 -39.7 9.0 0.6 5.7 13 82.6

HSBK LI 1,173 -13.1 -29.7 -36.0 4.4 0.9 17.1 11 17.4

KCEL KZ 600 -20.1 -36.4 -66.6 4.7 2.1 49.4 4 -

KKGB KZ 442 -23.1 -41.2 -67.2 na 0.4 na 0 -

KZTO KZ 764 -13.4 -34.7 -49.8 na 0.6 na 2 -

KZTK KZ 277 -12.9 -30.8 -47.7 na 0.3 na 1 -

KEGC KZ 498 -11.9 -19.0 -25.3 na 0.5 na 3 -

CCBN KZ 56 -20.1 -36.8 -67.4 na 0.3 na 0 -








KazakhstanFigure 328: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Kazakhstan 1,330 2.3

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Kazkommertsbank Financials 139 0.0

Kaztransoil Jsc Energy 76 0.1

Kazakhtelecom Telecoms 64 0.0

Kmg Ep-Gdr Energy 1,095 1.5

Halyk Saving-Gdr Financials 235 0.3

Kcell Telecoms 229 0.0

Kazakhstan Elect Utilities 50 0.1

Bank Centercredi Financials 15 0.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Kazakhstan, $ MSCI FM, $

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

Jan-

10

Aug

-10

Mar

-11

Oct

-11

May

-12

Dec

-12

Jul-1

3

Feb

-14

Sep

-14

Apr

-15

Nov

-15

Kazakhstan 3M ADTV ($mn)

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-10

-5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Kazakhstan Frontier

83%

17% Energy

Financials

83


X January 2016



Figure 337: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 338: Kazakhstan - tenge





0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

80

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1400.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0Ja

n-00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

KZT vs $ KZT vs EUR Kazakhstan REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


9.6 9.7

10.7

8.9

3.3

1.2

7.3 7.5

5.0

6.0

4.3

1.5

2.4

3.8 4.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Chi

na

Rus

sia

Ger

man

y

Fra

nce

Italy

Gre

ece

Rom

ania

Spa

in


84


X January 2016


KES 2015 2016 2017

B+/B1 6.5 6.8 7.0

5.4% 1,432 1,522 1,653

MXKE 44.1 45.2 46.4

9.3 6.3 5.4 5.0

19.8% -9.6 -9.2 -7.1

3.0 -8.1 -7.3 -6.1

0.7

11.3

4.4

5

5.2

NSEASI

18.9

62

6.6




MXKE 11,272 -4.7 -3.9 -25.3 9.0 3.0 34.0 65 5.4

SAFCOM KN 5,933 -6.0 4.8 -3.7 15.1 6.3 37.5 18 33.7

EABL KN 2,048 -3.0 -3.7 -23.4 19.2 15.3 57.8 8 23.2

KNCB KN 1,131 -3.8 -5.9 -41.4 4.9 1.4 25.1 13 19.3

EQBNK KN 1,420 -3.8 -14.3 -35.5 6.5 2.0 27.3 13 17.5

COOP KN 789 -4.1 -3.3 -22.4 5.8 1.6 23.3 13 6.3

BATK KN 782 1.9 3.7 -20.3 17.2 9.8 55.2 5 -

DTKL KN 445 2.1 -1.4 -31.2 5.7 1.4 21.9 8 -

BMBC KN 614 -1.8 7.7 3.4 13.2 2.2 17.5 8 -

BCBL KN 658 -8.6 -2.7 -31.0 6.8 1.8 na 8 -

CFCB KN 309 -2.5 -1.6 -42.6 5.2 0.9 16.0 6 -

JBIC KN 290 -7.1 8.3 -2.9 7.6 1.9 na 4 -

SCBL KN 589 -4.0 -2.9 -48.4 6.1 1.5 na 7 -

NICB KN 239 -11.6 3.0 -47.7 4.6 1.0 20.5 7 -

CENTUM KN 299 -1.2 7.8 -34.6 na 0.9 na 2 -

NMG KN 321 -4.5 28.8 -42.2 11.5 3.4 26.0 3 -

CIC KN 134 -15.4 -18.3 -52.7 6.5 1.9 na 1 -

KPLL KN 224 -11.7 -24.7 -30.3 2.5 0.4 14.7 7 -

IM KN 376 -2.1 0.6 -26.8 na 1.5 na 4 -








KenyaFigure 341: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Kenya 4,385 5.2

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Equity Group Hol Financials 757 2.0

Co-Operative Ban Financials 276 0.2

Brit Amer To-Ken Cons. Staples 782 0.2

Safaricom Ltd Telecoms 1,484 1.1

East African Bre Cons. Staples 1,025 1.2

Kenya Commercial Financials 843 1.2

Cfc Stanbic Hold Financials 169 0.2

Jubilee Holdings Financials 158 0.0

Standard Charter Financials 154 0.0

Diamond Trust Financials 300 0.0

Bamburi Cement Materials 224 0.1

Barclays Bank Financials 204 0.1

Cic Insurance Gr Financials 126 0.0

Kenya Power&Ligh Utilities 100 0.0

I&M Holdings Ltd Financials 94 0.0

Nic Bank Ltd Financials 144 0.0

Centum Investmen Financials 132 0.1

Nation Media Grp Cons. Disc. 129 0.1

40

90

140

190

240

290

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Kenya, $ MSCI FM, $

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Kenya 3M ADTV ($mn)

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Kenya Frontier

43%

34%

23%

Financials

Telecoms

Cons.Staples

85


X January 2016



Figure 350: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 351: Kenya - shilling





0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

00

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1600.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0Ja

n-00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

KES vs $ KES vs EUR Kenya REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


4.6

5.7 5.9

6.9

0.2

3.3

8.4

6.1

4.6

5.75.3

6.56.8 7.0 7.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Uga

nda

US

A

Net

herla

nds

Tan

zani

a

Zam

bia

UK

Egy

pt

Pak

ista

n


86


X January 2016


KWD 2015 2016 2017

AA/Aa2 1.2 2.5 2.7

20.5% 29,983 30,426 32,650

MXKW 4.1 4.2 4.3

10.5 3.3 3.3 3.5

12.5% 9.3 7.0 8.8

1.1 1.3 0.1 2.5

0.8

34.4

16.6

8

18.0

KWSEIDX

77.9

186

42.4




MXKW 34,411 -9.9 -12.8 -28.0 10.4 1.1 12.0 42 20.5

NBK KK 11,616 -12.4 -14.7 -20.5 10.8 1.3 13.2 9 34.4

KFIN KK 7,453 -12.0 -15.2 -33.9 11.2 1.3 10.9 7 22.1

ZAIN KK 4,916 -1.4 -8.1 -35.4 7.6 0.8 10.9 10 16.3

MABANEE KK 2,462 -4.3 2.3 0.6 15.6 2.6 14.5 5 7.4

AGLTY KK 1,676 -13.4 -22.3 -45.6 na 0.5 na 1 5.6

KPROJ KK 2,523 -8.7 -8.8 -27.7 10.3 1.1 na 2 5.3

BOUBYAN KK 2,684 -10.2 -9.3 -9.2 19.1 2.6 na 1 4.9

BURG KK 2,227 -11.9 -16.5 -26.6 7.6 1.1 13.0 7 4.0

CBK KK 2,418 4.1 -0.1 -18.4 12.9 1.3 8.9 3 -

ABK KK 1,839 -6.7 -6.8 -16.0 na 1.0 na 0 -

GBK KK 2,128 -18.4 -20.1 -28.9 10.6 1.2 na 1 -

VIVA KK 1,628 0.1 13.7 39.7 9.1 6.0 47.3 6 -

FOOD KK 2,330 -10.2 -22.2 -37.0 10.5 2.0 na 3 -

BPCC KK 784 -10.9 -17.6 -21.5 na 0.8 na 0 -

KIB KK 669 -10.9 -15.6 -26.6 9.8 0.8 na 1 -

NIND KK 493 -14.0 -23.7 -43.6 na 0.4 na 0 -

SRE KK 557 -5.5 3.1 -14.3 na 1.2 na 2 -

ALTIJARI KK 441 -7.4 -12.8 -17.5 na 0.5 na 0 -








KuwaitFigure 354: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Kuwait 16,567 18.0

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Mabanee Co Sakc Financials 1,232 0.9

Agility Industrials 922 2.4

Kuwait Projects Financials 884 1.4

Natl Bank Kuwait Financials 5,696 5.0

Kuwait Finance Financials 3,654 4.6

Mobile Telecommu Telecoms 2,705 2.2

Al Ahli Bank Kuw Financials 1,424 0.1

Gulf Bank Financials 1,126 0.2

Viva Kuwait Tele Telecoms 934 3.8

Boubyan Bank K.S Financials 805 0.8

Burgan Bank Financials 668 0.8

Commercial Bk Ku Financials 1,848 0.3

Natl Industries Industrials 399 0.3

Salhiahia Real Financials 378 0.0

Commercial Real Financials 355 0.2

Kuwait Food Co Cons. Disc. 773 0.6

Boubyan Petroch Materials 681 0.3

Kuwait Internati Financials 436 0.2

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Kuwait, $ MSCI FM, $

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Kuwait 3M ADTV ($mn)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-10

-5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Kuwait Frontier

78%

16%6%

Financials

Telecoms

Industrials

87


X January 2016



Figure 363: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 364: Kuwait - dinar





0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

500

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1400.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

Jan-

00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

KWD vs $ KWD vs EUR Kuwait REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 10.810.1

7.5

6.0

2.5

-7.1

-2.4

10.6

7.7

0.80.1

1.22.5 2.7 2.7

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Kor

ea

Indi

a

Japa

n

US

A

Chi

na

Tai

wan EU

Eur

o A

rea

Egy

pt

Sin

gapo

re


88


X January 2016


LBP 2015 2016 2017

B-/B2 2.0 2.5 3.0

3.8% 11,945 12,405 12,800

MXLB 4.6 4.6 4.6

5.5 1.0 2.0 2.5

-1.7% -21.0 -19.3 -18.3

0.9 -10.0 -8.0 -8.8

0.3

5.4

3.1

4

1.4

BLOM

0.0

7

0.8




MXLB 5,427 -0.8 5.8 -2.1 5.5 0.9 na 9 3.8

BLOM LB 2,021 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.3 0.8 na 3 39.1

SOLA LB 1,709 -1.6 14.2 -5.8 18.2 0.9 na 1 33.5

AUDI LB 2,430 0.5 2.4 -1.9 6.2 0.9 na 4 16.7

SOLB LB 1,709 -1.6 11.7 -6.2 na 0.9 na 1 10.8

BYB LB 922 1.2 1.9 -0.6 6.7 0.6 12.8 3 -

BOB LB 919 -3.2 -1.1 -1.1 na 0.7 na 1 -

HOLC LB 281 -0.7 -4.8 -3.9 na na na 0 -

RYM LB 88 0.0 0.0 0.0 na 1.8 na 0 -

BEMO LB 138 0.0 0.0 6.1 na 0.9 na 0 -

CBN LB 33 0.0 0.0 12.7 na 1.6 na 0 -

BLC LB 260 0.0 0.0 0.0 na 0.7 na 0 -








LebanonFigure 367: Key data

Local Currency



($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Lebanon 3,098 1.4

Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

Solidere-B Financials 335 0.1

Byblos Bank Financials 922 0.0

Bank Of Beirut Financials 919 0.2

Blom Bank Financials 1,213 1.4

Solidere-A Financials 1,033 0.3

Bank Audi Sal Financials 517 0.4

Ciments Blancs N Materials 11 na

Blc Bank Financials 5 na

Holcim Liban Materials 281 0.0

Rasamny-Younis Cons. Disc. 88 na

Banq Bemo Sal Financials 29 0.0

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Lebanon, $ MSCI FM, $

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

MSCI Lebanon 3M ADTV ($mn)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-10

-5

10

15

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Lebanon Frontier

100%

Financials

89


X January 2016



Figure 376: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 377: Lebanon - pound





0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1600.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0Ja

n-00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

LBP vs $ LBP vs EUR Lebanon REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


5.1

2.7

1.6

9.4 9.1

10.3

8.0

0.9

2.8 2.52.0 2.0

2.53.0 3.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Sau

di A

rabi

a

EU

UA

E

Syr

ia

Eur

o A

rea

Iraq

Sou

th A

fric

a

Sw

itzer

land

Tur

key

Jord

an


90


X January 2016


EUR 2015 2016 2017

A-/A3 1.8 2.6 3.0

0.2% 14,318 15,366 16,631

MXLT 2.9 2.9 2.9

11.8 0.2 1.5 1.9

16.0% -2.2 -2.4 -2.2

2.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4

0.4

0.8

0.1

2

0.1

VILSE

1.7

22

0.4




MXLT 783 -0.6 -2.4 -7.7 na 2.8 na 2 0.2

TEO1L LH 635 -0.3 -1.6 -7.3 na 2.6 na 0 58.3

APG1L LH 154 -0.3 -2.5 -6.5 11.7 3.1 23.7 2 41.7

KNF1L LH 159 4.2 8.9 13.1 na 0.8 na 0 -

LNA1L LH 114 -1.3 -0.7 -9.5 7.6 0.7 8.5 2 -

PZV1L LH 73 3.3 -1.9 -14.7 na 1.8 na 0 -

GRG1L LH 76 -3.8 0.5 0.4 na 1.5 na 0 -

CTS1L LH 57 -0.7 3.3 -5.7 8.0 0.8 8.6 1 -

INR1L LH 19 13.7 20.8 -78.5 na 0.2 na 0 -

RSU1L LH 55 -1.9 1.8 -2.4 na 0.5 na 0 -

INC1L LH 26 -3.5 -7.9 40.2 na 1.0 na 0 -

PTR1L LH 16 -0.4 -2.9 -2.6 na 1.4 na 0 -

AVG1L LH 63 6.8 26.5 30.2 na 1.0 na 0 -

IVL1L LH 43 -3.7 -7.0 4.8 na 0.8 na 0 -

INL1L LH 10 -2.9 -0.6 -3.1 na na na 0 -

LNS1L LH 3 5.9 -5.6 -13.0 na 1.2 na 0 -




LithuaniaFigure 380: Key data

Local Currency







Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)


($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Lithuania 130 0.1

Teo Lt Telecoms 76 0.0

Apranga Pva Cons. Disc. 54 0.1

Klaipedos Nafta Energy 44 0.0

Linas Agro Group Cons. Staples 37 0.2

Pieno Zvaigzdes Cons. Staples 32 0.2

Grigiskes Materials 26 0.0

City Service As Industrials 19 0.0

Invl Baltic Real Financials 17 0.0

Rokiskio Suris Cons. Staples 15 0.0

Invl Technology na 14 0.0

Panevezio Staty Industrials 8 0.0

Agrowill Group Cons. Staples 5 0.0

Invalda Lt Ab Financials 4 0.0

Invl Baltic Farm na 1 0.0

Linas Cons. Disc. 1 0.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Lithuania, $ MSCI FM, $

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Lithuania 3M ADTV ($mn)

58%

42%

Telecoms

Cons.Disc.

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan-

16

VILSE Index Frontier

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-20

-15

-10

-5

10

15

20

91


X January 2016



Figure 389: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 390: Lithuania - litas/euro





0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan-

00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

EUR vs $ Lithuania REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


7.4 7.8 7.4

11.1

2.6

-14.8

1.6

6.13.8 3.3 3.0

1.8 2.6 3.0 3.3

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Rus

sia

Latv

ia

Pol

and

Ger

man

y

Bel

arus

Net

herla

nds

Est

onia

UK


92


X January 2016


MUR 2015 2016 2017

-/Baa1 3.2 3.8 3.6

1.8% 9,187 9,643 10,243

MXMR 1.3 1.3 1.3

10.3 3.0 3.0 3.0

18.0% -4.8 -4.8 -5.3

1.2 -5.0 -3.9 -3.8

0.3

3.8

2.0

3

1.5

SEMDEX

5.7

42

0.8




MXMR 3,838 -3.6 -9.8 -21.7 8.3 1.2 11.9 11 1.8

MCBG MP 1,362 0.4 -2.6 -5.6 7.1 1.3 17.0 5 46.2

ROC SJ 2,026 -2.9 -0.7 -0.8 21.3 1.5 6.1 3 34.9

SBMH MP 556 -7.7 -16.9 -40.8 5.1 0.8 12.0 3 18.9

ALT MP 274 0.1 -10.9 -9.4 na 0.6 na 1 -

NMH MP 309 31.3 27.1 -14.3 na 0.8 na 2 -

CIEL MP 280 -2.8 -5.8 -18.3 na 0.7 na 0 -

ROGERS MP 196 1.1 -3.9 -12.5 na 0.8 na 1 -

CIM MP 146 -2.9 -2.3 -23.6 na 1.7 na 0 -

SUN MP 140 0.8 -4.8 -14.3 15.7 0.7 3.0 1 -

NRL MP 222 -2.3 -0.1 -6.2 na 1.4 na 1 -

MTMD MP 131 0.1 2.9 -20.1 na 0.5 na 0 -

PADFP MP 110 10.8 6.8 -2.1 na 0.5 na 0 -

SHELL MP 77 -5.0 -14.1 -38.2 na 4.1 na 0 -

IBL MP 260 23.0 19.5 8.1 na 1.7 na 1 -

FINCORP MP 63 22.8 18.3 -9.0 na 0.6 na 0 -

PBL MP 171 -3.1 -7.1 22.8 13.5 1.9 na 1 -

GML MP 90 -6.2 -10.5 -50.9 na 1.5 na 0 -

SAVA MP 318 7.6 3.8 -5.5 na 0.6 na 2 -



MauritiusFigure 393: Key data

Local Currency







Beta to FM



No. of Companies


Local Index

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)


($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Mauritius 1,979 1.5

Mcb Group Ltd Financials 689 0.3

Rockcastle Globa Financials 1,007 1.7

Sbm Holdings Ltd Financials 283 0.1

Alteo Ltd Cons. Staples 274 0.0

New Mauritius Ho Cons. Disc. 227 0.1

Fincorp Invest Financials 63 0.0

Ciel Ltd Financials 223 0.0

Rogers & Co Ltd Industrials 171 0.0

Cim Financial Se Financials 146 0.0

Sun Limited-Cl A Cons. Disc. 140 0.0

Lux Island Resor Cons. Disc. 134 0.0

Phoenix Beverage Cons. Staples 58 0.0

Gamma Civic Ltd Cons. Disc. 57 0.0

Enl Land Ltd Cons. Staples 55 0.0

Omnicane Ltd Utilities 131 0.0

Promotion & D-Fp Financials 110 0.0

Vivo Energy Maur Energy 77 0.0

Ireland Blyth Financials 69 0.0

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

MSCI Mauritius, $ MSCI FM, $

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

Jan…

Jul-1

0

Jan…

Jul-1

1

Jan…

Jul-1

2

Jan…

Jul-1

3

Jan…

Jul-1

4

Jan…

Jul-1

5

Jan…

Mauritius 3M ADTV ($mn)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Mauritius Frontier

100%

Financials

93


X January 2016



Figure 402: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 403: Mauritius - rupee





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

00

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1400.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0Ja

n-00

Dec

-00

Nov

-01

Oct

-02

Sep

-03

Aug

-04

Jul-0

5

Jun-

06

May

-07

Apr

-08

Mar

-09

Feb

-10

Jan-

11

Dec

-11

Nov

-12

Oct

-13

Sep

-14

Aug

-15

MUR vs $ MUR vs EUR Mauritius REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E


4.3

1.5

4.5

5.95.5

3.0

4.13.9

3.2 3.23.6

3.2

3.83.6 3.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

EU

Eur

o A

rea

Fra

nce

UK

UA

E

US

A

Sou

th A

fric

a

Italy

Mad

agas

car

Spa

in


94

frontier pt1

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