frsbog_mim_v18_0280.pdf

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7/17/2019 frsbog_mim_v18_0280.pdf http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/frsbogmimv180280pdf 1/21 O r., x 3700 Address  of A, C.  MILLER Member  of the  Federal Reserve Board before the Annual Convention of the Maryland Bankers Association Atlantic City,  New  Jersey May 28, 1921.

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Page 1: frsbog_mim_v18_0280.pdf

7/17/2019 frsbog_mim_v18_0280.pdf

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O r.,

x 3700

Address

  of

A, C.

  MILLER

Member

  of t he

  Federal Reserve Board

before

  t h e

Annual Convention

  o f t h e

  Maryland Bankers Association

At lan t ic C i ty ,

  New

  Jersey

May 28 , 1 92 1.

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x 3700

Mr*

  Pres ident

  and

  gentleizBn

  o f t h e

  Maryland Bankers

Assoc ia t ion ,

  I am

  very happy

  t o

  have

  an

  oppor tun i ty

  t o

  meat

  you

a nd

  discuss with

  you

  some

  of our

  common problems

  and

  t roubles

and

  p e r p l e x i t i e s ,

I

  be l i eve tha t

  you

  gentleman consti tute

  t h e

  S t a t e

  S e c -

t ion

  of

  your Association*

  Le t me sa y , i n

  order

  t o

  r e l i e v e

  you of

an y

  doubt

  a s t o why I am

 here , tha t

  I am

 here n e i th er

  t o

  s o l i c i t

membership

  of you in the

  Federal Reserve Bank

  of

  Richmond,

  no r

t o  complain  of  such  o f you a s a r e no t  members  f o r n o t  be ing  mem-

bers#  The  p r e s e n t ,  t o  iriy mind,  i s a  time th at i nv it es  u s ,  whether

a s

  prac t i ca l bankers

  or as men

  concerned with

  t h e

  admini s t r a t ion

o f t h e  nat ion* s  banking  and  f i n a n c i a l a f f a i r s  i n a  governmental

way, to

  look

  a

  l i t t l e beyond

  our own

  immediate precincts

  a n d t r y

t o

  take

  a

  broader

  and

  deeper view

  of the

  s i t ua t i on t ha t

  i s c o n -

f r o n t i n g

  t h e

  country

  a t t h e

  pr es en t time. Whether

  you a r e

National bankers

  o r

  State bankers makes

  no

  d i f f e r e n c e ;

  -

  whether

merely business  men or  f a r mer s

t

  o r  even,  f o r  that matter , people

who  belong  t o t h e  s a l a r i e d  o r  p r o f e s s i ona l c l a s s e s ,  o r t o t he

great body

  o f

  consumers•

  The

  d i f f i c u l t i e s

  a n d

  p e r p l e x i t i e s

  s u r -

rounding

  t h e

  banker

  and t he

  bus iness

  man a t the

  present time make

no

  discrimination between national bankers

  and

  their customers

  and

State bankers

  and

  their customers

  i n t he

  many d i f fe ren t s ec t ions

  of

t h e

  count ry ,

  o r i n o u r

  many d if fe re nt c las ses

  of

  indus t ry•

  I f we

have ever been confronted with

  an

  economic problem that concerns

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- 2 -  x 3700  f

a l l o f us and  from which th er e  i s no  escape  f o r a n y o f u s ,  except  a s i t

i s a n

  escape

  f o r a l l of u s , i t i s th e

  p re sen t s i t ua t i on .

I

  want

  t o

  take occas ion , there for e , th i s a f te rn oon ,

  i n t h e

t ime a l lo t ted

  to me, to

  draw at tent ion

  t o

  some

  o f t h e

  outs tanding

  f a c -

tors that  a r e  involved  in t he  existing economic  an d  f i n a n c i a l s i t u a -

tion, whether  you  happen  to be a  banker  i n  Maryland  o r i n  Ca l i fo rn i a ;

i n

  Maine

  o r i n

  Texas.

  I

  mean

  t o

  talk mainly about what

  we

  have come

t o  descr ibe  by tha  term postwar economic re ad ju st me nt •  B ut  f i r s t  I

want

  to say a

  word

  by way of

  caut ion

  and

  co r r ec t i on -

A few

  months

  ago i t was

  more common

  t o

  describe what

  i s in

process  a s  de f l a t i on . Fo r tuna t e ly  -  f o r t u n a t e l y  f o r t h e  t r u t h ,  and

f o r t u n a t e l y  f o r t h e  truth that helps  u s  toward  a  comprehension  and a

so lu t i on

  of our

  problem

  - we are

  la t ter ly coming

  t o

  ta lk less about

  d e -

f l a t i o n  and  more about readjustment -  Mary  who d i d no t see i t  last autumn

now  understand tha t  i t i s n o t  de f l a t i on from which  we are  su f f e r ing ;

t h a t d e f l a t i o n , s o - c a l l e d ,  i s  merely  a  symptom  o f t h e  r egene ra t i ve  o r

restorative process through which nature

  i s

  p u t t i n g

  us#

  What

  we are

going through

  i s , i n

  f a c t ,

  a

  readjustment

  o r

  realignment

  o f t h e

  d i s t o r t -

ed  s t r u c t u r e  of  indus t ry  and  commerce throughout  t h e  l eng th  and  breadth

of our

  country

  t o a

  normal basis.

  The

  readjustment, indeed, reaches

beyond  our own  shores into -world-commerce  and  into world-markets  * V/e

a r e n o t  su f f e r in g a lone,  n o r  even most*  We a r e  suffer ing a long with

t h e

  r e s t

  o f t he

  worl d. There

  i s no

  country,

  no

  matter

  ho w

  important

nor how  l i t t l e i m p or ta n t,  i n a  commercial  o r  f inanc ia l way

t

  tha t  i s no t

going through

  th e

  throes

  of

  t h i s t e r r i b l e c r i s i s

  o f

  a f f a i r s f rom

which

  we

  have been su ff er in g*

  On th e

  whole

  we

  have come through

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- 3 -  x 3700

r

r <

most easily  and  s a f e l y . Much  as we  complain  of our  condi t ion  and  much

as we

  lament

  o u r

  individual suffer ings

  and

  l o s s e s ,

  we

  really have reason

to be  thankful that thus  f a r w e  have come through  so  well  and on the

whole with

  so

  l i t t l e damage

  to ou r

  economic

  and

  business morale.

Why do 7/e

  call this mysterious movement

  o r

  process through

which

  w e a r e

  pas sin g readj ustmen t rat her than de fl at io n ? Foremost,

and  b r i e f l y ,  to my  mind,  f o r  this reason: Deflation  — God  p ro t ec t  the man

who

  ever invented

  t h e

  word

  o r

  ever undertook

  t o

  na tu ra l i z e

  i t o n

  American

so i l  and  apply  i t a s a  desc r ip t i on  of  American conditions  —  d e f l a t i o n  to iry

mind always implies that somebody

  h a s g o t h i s

  hand

  on

  something

  and is

t ry ing

  t o

  squeeze something

  o u t o f i t . I t

  implies

  th e

  in te rvent ion

  of a

wi l fu l  and  def ini te purpose  on  somebody's part  t o  accomplish  a  r e s u l t  by

means  of  forced pressure. More specifically  i t  means forced liquidation

and

  f a l l i ng p r i ce s

  by

  r e s t r i c t i o n

  of

  cred i t

  and

  cont rac t ion

  of

  currency•

I n  that sense there  h a s  been  no  d e f l a t i o n .  The  liquidation that swept

over this country,

  i n

  common with

  th e

  r e s t

  of the

  world,

  i n t h e

  year

  1920

was not of  anybody*s making  -  l e a s t  of a l l , o f t h e  Federal Reserve Board*s.

I t

  came

  of

  i t s e l f .

  I t was no t the

  consquence

  of any

  pol icy

  o f

  d e f l a t i o n .

I t w a s t h e

  r e s u l t

  of an

  inev i tab le reac t ion

  in the

  course

  of

  economic

a f f a i r s .  So f a r a s  d e f l a t i o n  h a s h a d  anything  a t a l l t o d o  with what  h a s

been going

  on in the

  las t year ,

  i t h a s

  been

  a

  d e f l a t i o n

  o f

  expectations

a

  d e f l a t i o n

  of

  exaggerated expectations

  on the

  pa r t

  of

  people generally

throughout

  ou r

  country, north

  and

  south, east

  and

  west,

  and no t

  only

throughout  t h e  United States  and the  Western Hemisphere,  b u t  p r e t t y  g e n -

erally throughout

  the

  world.

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- 4 -  X 3700  r- **

 

r . 4v

We  want  on a  joy-r ide soon af ter  t h e  Armist ice .  The  sudden

termination

  of the war in

  November,

  1 9 1 8 ,

  brought

  an

  immense relief

  t o

a l l o f u s . We h ad

  been tense,

  we ha d

  been nerved

  up to a

  te r r i f i c endeavor ,

th e

  most he ro ic th at people

  h ad

  ever been called upon

  t o

  make

  in the

publ ic be ha lf . Suddenly,  i n t h e  midst  of  th i s , came r e l i e f .  A ll ws had  been

told  to do in the way of  saving  and  self-denial suddenly seemed  t o  have

l o s t

  i t s

  meaning*

  Our

  pent-up emotions suddenly begot

  an

  orgy

  of

  r e c k l e s s -

ness  and  ext rav aga nce . People began  to buy  l e f t  and  r i g h t , o u t  of  proportion

t o

  their means,

  in an

  endeavor

  t o

  keep

  u p

  with those

  who had

  become,

  by

reason

  of the

  for tunes

  o f war , the

  r ec ip i en t s

  of

  more than their ordinary

incomes. Business,

  i t

  seemed,

  had

  never been

  so

  good .

  I n a

  word, there

followed close upon

  th e

  Armistice

  a

  s t a t e

  of

  inf la ted expec ta t ion

  as to

t h e

  f u t u r e

  of

  busine ss . Pr ice s were r i s i ng . Speculat ion f l ou r i sh ed .

Everything looked good.

But in 1920

  people began

  t o

  doubt whether things could continue

t h i s

  way;

  they began

  t o

  h e s i t a t e .

  I n

  b r i ef , th ei r expectat ion s began

  t o

d e f l a t e .  I t was  they  who  de fl at ed themselves  i n t h e  process  of  get t ing

themselves into  s  saner  and  more normal attitude  as to the  f u t u r e  of  b u s i -

ness

  i n t h e

  country

  and the

  course

  o f our

  fore ign t rade .

  So f a r as the

Feder al Rese rve System  was  concerned, deflation never formed  any  par t

o f i t s

  purpose*

  I t

  want

  on

  expanding credit

  and

  currency throughout

  the

l a rger par t

  o f the

  year

  1920 . I t was no t

  un t i l crops were ha rve ste d,

  o r

u n t i l a f t e r  t h e  middle  o f  October, that  th e  volume  of  loans  an d  discounts

car r ied  by  Federal Reserve Banks showed  any  diminut ion.  The  great

diminution

  h a s

  come' wi th

  t h e

  year

  1921 and has

  been

  a

  na tu ra l r e su l t

  of

th e economic  r e a c t i o n , i n t e n s i f i e d  by  reason  o f the  fact that there

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- 5 -  X-3700

  r

was a  general  l e t  dpwn  of  indus t ry  and  connierce throughout  t h e

whole world  a s  wel l  a s  throughout  o u r  whole country.

Esserve bank rates have

  had

  nothing

  to do

  with producing this

react ion*  I n t h e  winter  of  1919-1920,  an d  later when  th e  further advance

of

  r a t e

  was

  made

  i n

  June,

  1 9 2 0 , i t d i d

  something

  to

  check

  t h e

  expansion

vfoich

  h ad

  been going

  o n . I t

  helped

  to

  r e t a r d

  th e

  process

  and to

  prevent

  the

eventual rea ct io n from degen erati ng into  a  v io l en t co l l apse .  3y  moderating

and  steadying  t h e  reac t ion  i t  helped  t o  make  the .  inevi table readjustment

order ly

  b y

  corapairson with what

  i t

  otherwise might,

  and

  probably would,

have been*

What does readjustment mean?  I t  means that when values  and  pr ices

and  volumes  of  production have gotten  ou t o f  the i r na tura l re la t ionsh ips

they have somehow

  o r

  other

  got to be

  brought back before there

  can be a

sa f e

  and

  s tab le bas i s

  f o r

  bus iness ac t i v i ty . Ord inar i ly

  i n t h e

  past when

we

  have

  had. a

  v i o l e n t a l t e r a t i o n

  of the

  course

  of

  indus t ry

  t h e

  thing

  h a s

culminated

  i n a

  t e r r i f i c p a n i c

  and a

  short , sudden,

  and

  unive rsa l co l l apse .

There  a r e  people  who  argue that  on the  whole  t h e  universal sudden collapse

that comes with panic  i s  p re f e r ab l e  t o t h e  slow  and  moderated processes

we

  have

  h a d

  during

  t h e

  l a s t e igh t

  o r t e n

  months under

  t h e

  in f luence

  of

t h e  Fede ral Reserve System. They be li ev e  i t i s  b e t t e r  t o  have  a  short

and

  abrupt descent

  and be

  over with

  i t a nd

  have everybody

  o n t h e

  same

level about

  t h e

  sane ti me . What

  we

  have

  h a d i n

  fact under

  t h e

  slow

  and

re la t ively order ly readjustment dur ing  t h e  l a s t e igh t  o r t e n  months  h a s

been  in t he  na ture  o f a  staggered process .  The  readjustment  and

liquidation have been uneven

  i n

  their incidence,

  a s

  between different

l i ne s

  of

  industry

  and a s

  between different sect ions

  o f t he

  country.

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- 6 - x - 3 7 0 0 -  r

< ^

Pri ces have gone down un iv er sa ll y,

  b u t

  they have

  n o t

  gone down

uniformly.

  The

  farmer

  h a s

  suf fered

  t h e

  most,

  and

  even

  a s

  amongst

  the

farmers some have suffered more than others, depending  on the  conditions

a f f e c t i n g  t h e  markets  f o r  the i r par t i cu lar s t ap les*  The  cot ton planter  has

been worse

  h i t

  than

  any

  other conparable group#

  He is

  most dependent

  on

th e

  foreign market*

  The

  l ive stock

  man has

  been

  i n a

  very

  bad

  s i tua t ion

because  h i s  products also must find  a  considerable market overseas«  The

r e s u l t  i s  that there  h a s  been extreme inequality  i n t h e  readjus tment  p r o -

cess

 « For th e

  most part

  t h e

  South, especial ly

  t h e

  Gulf cotton states,

f e l t

  th e

  heavy blow

  of the

  readjus tment f i r s t ,

  and on the

  whole most

severely*

Ordinar i ly

  in a

  heal thy s t ate

  of

  industry when things

  a re in

balance there  i s a  paral lel ism between  th e  p r i ces  of  finished goods  a s  they

go

  into

  use and the

  basic cost prices

  of the raw

  mater i als tha t

  go

  into

th e

  manufacture

  of

  those goods. There

  i s a

  close correspondence between

t h e

  pr ices

  of

  muslin

  and

  ca l i co

  and of raw

  cot ton - There

  i s a

  correspon-

dence between variations

  of the

  p r i ce

  of

  boots

  and

  shoes

  an d

  va r i a t i ons

of the

  cost

  o f

  hides

  and

  le at he r . There

  i s a

  paral lel ism between

  the

s e l l i ng p r i ces

  o f a l l

  these good?

  and

  labor cost

  and

  fuel cos t

  and

  t r ans -

po rt at io n cost* That pa ra ll el is m, however, does

  n o t

  e x i s t

  a t the

present time,

  We

  have

  raw

  mater i a l s , par t i c u la r ly such

  raw

  mater ials

a s

  grow

  on the to p o f the

  s o i l ,

  a s

  dis ti ng ui sh ed from thos e taken from

under

  th e

  s o i l , down pr et ty near

  to bad

  rock.

  We

 have some

  a

  l i t t l e

below  the 1913  l e v e l .  Tu t in  many sections  of the  country there  h a s

been l i t t l e r e f l e c t i o n

  of the

  f a l l

  of raw

  mater i a l

  i n t h e

  f in i shed

product pr ices•

  To

  i l l u s t r a t e

  th e

  po i n t ,

  I

  o f f e r

  an

  instance

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r

  7 -

  X-3700

  r - i

though

  I do no t

  o f f e r

  i t a s

  typical*

  We

  know

  t o o

  l i t t l e

  a s a

  whole

  of

t h e

  rela t ionship between re ta i l pr ices

  and

  p r i ce s

  of

  bas ic

  raw

  mater ia ls

i n t h e  United States  a t t h e  present time  t o  make pre cis e g ene ral iz ati on

possible*  Bu t the  instance  I  give  you  wi ll serve  a s a  suggest ion  of

one of the  things bothering  u s a t t h e  pr es en t time# Wheat  h a s  f a l l en

from  th e  peak,  53  P

e r

  cent ; f lour  h a s  f a l l e n  47   p e r  cent* ^re ad  h a s

f a l l e n

  1 0 p e r

  cent# This in di ca te s

  a

  s t r ik ing lack

  of

  correspondence

between  t h e  movement  of  wholesale prices  and  r e t a i l p r i c e s •

Now, I .atn

  we ll aware th at

  i t

  takes more than wheat

  o r

  more than

f l o u r

  t o

  make bread* Bread

  i a a

  product

  of a

  pretty highly organized

manufacturing process*

  The

  manufacturer

  h a s h i s

  p lan t

  a s

  wel l

  a s h i s

ra w  ma te r i a l .  H e h a s h i s  f u e l  a s  well  as h i s r aw  mater ial b i l l - ^eyond

tha t  h e h a s h i s p a y  roll, concerning which  he  could doubtless tell some

very dis turbing things.

  He

  a l so

  h a s t o

  market

  h i s

  product*

  ^>ut

  when

allowance  i s  made  f o r a l l  these factors  I do not  think anyone  can  doubt

tha t  t h e  dispar i ty between sel l ing pr ice  and  cost  i s  abnormal•  A drop

of

  53

  P

e r

  cent

  i n

  wheat

  and a

  drop

  o f 40 pe r

  cent

  i n

  f l o u r ,

  a s

  compared

with

  1 0 p e r

  cent

  i n t h e

  case

  of the

  loaf

  of

  bread, indicates that some-

thing

  i s o u t o f

  jo in t- Before

  we can

  have anything like

  a

  normal economic

s i t ua t i on  t h e  rela t ionship between  t h e  pr ices  or raw  mater ia l  ana  f in i shed

product mast  b e  rees tab l i shed .

Wa  cannot expect extensive downward revisions  i n  wages until

we get  considerable extensive downward revisions  in the  r e t a i l s e l l i n g

pr ices  of  those things that make  up the  bulk  of the  ordinary workman

1

 s

family consumption#

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X-3700

  ^

We

  have

  got to

  6

e t t h a

  paral lel ism more completely restored

between  t h e  s e l l i n g p r i c e s  o f  bas i c  raw  m a t e r i a l s  and t he  f in i shed

consumable commo ditie s before

  we can

  f ee l t ha t

  wa are

  reasonably through

with  t h e  readjustment process  and  that indust ry  and  business  i n  th is

country will again move  on a  reasonably steady ke el . Un ti l th at  i s

accomplished,  we  s h a l l  n o t b e  through wit h  o u r  economic d i f f icu l t ies*

.uut we  have  a  be t t e r under s t and ing  of the  na tu re  of  t h os e d i f f i c u l t i e s ,

and we

  hava

  a

  bet ter unders tanding

  of

  what

  we

  have

  got to do to

  hasten

t h e

  so lu t ion

  o r

  e l imina t ion

  of

  some

  of

  t ho se d i f f i c u l t i e s .

I f I  were  t o  venture  a  statement  as to  what  i s t h e  most  im -

portant immediate point upon which  t o  concen t r a t e a t t en t ion  i n t h e p r o -

cess  of  f u r t h e r i n g  and  h a s t e n i n g  t h e  readjustment process  I  should  s ay

i t was th e

  r e t a i l p r i c e s i t u a t i o n *

The  advice that  M r.  Hoover gave before  th e  United States

Chamber

  of

  Commerce

  a few

  weeks

  a g o ,

  when

  he

  advised people

  who

  were

purchasers  a t  r e t a i l  t o  shop around,  was  good advice*  We  need  t h e r e -

t a i l p r i c e s i t u a t i o n  to be  brought into closer touch with  t h e  wholesale

p r i ce s i tua t ion , wi th

  t h e

  manufac tu r ing s i tua t ion

  and

  wi th basic

  i n -

dust ry condi t ions before  we can  f ee l t ha t  we  have  g o t  r ead jus tmen t  to a

sa t i sf ac to ry po in t . Everybody must share  t h e  common l o t * There must

be no  escape  f o r a n y  from  t h e  common  l o t i n  times like  t h e  present*

Just exact ly  as war  makes  no  d i sc r imina t ion  i n t he  l i f e  i t  t a k e s ,

  #

values  one  man

f

s  U f a no  more than anot her*s ; j us t  a s  each  man  gives

h i s

  l i f e f r a e l y

  t o t ha

  common cause,

  so in a

  t ime l ike this

  we

  must

  a l l

be  prepared  t o  share  tha  common  l o t i f we  expect  a  so lu t ion  of our  common

d i f f i c u l t i e s # P e a c e  n o  le ss than  w a r h a s i t s  t r i a l s  and  v i c t o r i a s ,  and

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i f we

  would show one-half

  of the

  concern,

  f o r o u r

  common interests

  i n

peace that  we  show  i n w a r ,  show one-half  o f t h e  p a t r i o t i c r e s o l v e  t o

manfully accept whatever

  t h e

  p r e s en t s i t ua t i on

  may

  r equ i r e

  i n

  order

t ha t  i t  s h a l l  be  corrected*  we  would expedi te t h is b usin ess  pf  p o s t -

w ar  read jus tment very mater ia l ly4  3 u t  u n f o r t u n a t e l y  t h e  f o r c e s  of

ind iv idua l cupid i ty

  a r e a p t t o g e t t h e

  b e t t e r

  of our

  generous impulses

i n  time  o f  peace jus t  as i n  time  of war  there  i s a  s o r t  of  f o r g e t f u l -

ness  of  self that makes  one  almost court danger  and  welcome sacrifice*

i n

  order

  t o

  j u s t i f y

  o u r

  f a i t h

  i n

  ourse lves

  an d

  prove

  o u r

  devot ion

  t o

country•

The  papers t hi s morning re po rt tha t  t h e  United States Railroad

Wage uioard  i s  about  t o  hand down  on the  f i r s t  o f  June  i t s  wage  a d -

jus tment de ci s i on , That  i s a  mat te r  of  great moment  i n  helping improve-

ment

  o f t h e

  e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n .

  I t

  i nd i ca t e s

  t h e

  de t e r mi na t i on

  of

  th i s

responsible agency

  t o

  reduce wages

  a s t h e

  cos t

  of

  l i v i n g

  i s

  reduced#

  We

may  expect th at they wi ll  go on  with this work  of  wage adjustment,  a s

t h e  s e l l i n g p r i c e s  of  c l o t h i n g  and  f u e l  and  food f a l l f u r t h e r e d

p a r t i c u l a r l y  a  r educ t i on  o f  house re nt s fo llo w upon increa sed bu il di ng

operat ions*

  We may

  expect tha t

  th e

  cos t

  of

  ope r a t i ng

  t h e

  r a i l r o a d s

  so

f a r a s t h e  wages bil l  i s  concerned will  b e  reduced,  and  t h a t  in due

course

  t h e

  Interstate Commerce Commission

  o r t h e

  r a i l r o a d s

  of

  the i r

own  motion wi l l reduce f r ei g ht ra te s , thus el i min at i ng another  of the

obstruct ive elements«  The  ra i l road wage s i tua t ion  i s  i n t i m a t e l y i n t e r -

locked with  t h e  whole problem  of  post-war readjustment#

Th e

  increase

  i n

  ra i l road ra tes a l lowed las t year , necessary

  a s

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-r 10 r*  X-3700

-was in  order  t o  p r o t e c t  t h e  investment status  o f th e  r a i l r o a d s  and in

order that

  t h e

  roads might have some hope

  of

  a t t r a c t i n g

  t h e

  c a p i t a l

necessa ry

  t o

  sustain them,

  w as

  never the l ess

  s o

  cons ide rab le

  a s t o

  work

  a

very in ju r ious in t e r rup t ion  o f th e  natura l f low  o f  commodities*  We  have

grea t d i s t ances

  t o

  cover between markets

  i n t h e

  Uni ted Sta tes ;

  t h e

  r a t es

on  c e r t a i n t r a f f i c must n e c e s s a r i l y  b e  very  l o w i f  goods  a r e t o  move.

P resen t h igh r a t e s ,  i f  p e r s i s t e d  i n ,  would bring  t o  pass some very  d i s -

a s t r o u s r e s u l t s

  , and

  here

  a n d

  there some vi o l en t l y un fa i r re su l t s

  i n

breaking

  u p

  es t ab l i shed marke t s

  a n d

  indust r ia l a l ignments#

I was  ta lk ing wi th  a  manufacturer from  th e f a r  West  a f ew

weeks ago*  I  asked  h im  What  i s t h e  r a i l road s i tua t ion do ing  t o

you? He  r e p l i e d t h a t  i t was one o f the  g rea t es t t h ings tha t  had

ever happened  t o h i s  sect ion*  I t w as  l i k e  a  great wall  of  p r o t e c -

t ion  t o  loca l i ndus t ry ,  h e  s a i d .  He  went  o n to s ay  t h a t  i n h i s

p a r t i c u l a r l i n e

  of

  business there

  h a d

  never been

  a s

  much act iv i ty

  -

i t w a s  high er than  i n  1920«  The  eastern manufacturer could  n o t

g e t  i n t o  h i s  markets because  of  high f r e i gh t r a t es . Whi le th a t happen-

ed to be a  s a t i s f a c t o r y s i t u a t i o n  f o r  th i s pa r t i c u l a r manufac tu re r ,

thus pro tec ted

  by

  r a i lway r a t e s ,

  i t w as n o t a

  comfort ing condit ion

f o r t h e

  manufacturer

  i n

  Chicago

  o r S t*

  Louis

  o r

  Kansas City

  who

was

  th us exclu ded from acc ess

  t o a

  customary market»

  I t

  does

n o t  make  f o r a  heal thy economic s i tu a t io n , e i th er , consid er in g

t h e  count ry  a s a  whole*

I  would  n o t  l eave  y o u ,  however, with  t h e  impression that  th e

completion  o f th e  readjustment process  i n  th is count ry  i s  merely  a

domestic ma tt er . Even  i f w e g e t t h e  r e t a i l p r i ce s i t ua t ion more

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  X-3700

completely reconstructed,

  and

  wages adjusted

  on

  par a l l e l l in es , even

  i f

we ge t

  rai l road rates sat i s factor i ly revised downward,

  and

  even

  i f the

reserve rates

  o f .

  disc oun t should

  be

  greatly lowered,

  we

  should s t i l l

  n o t

be out of the  woods*  The  foreign trade situation would  b e  l e f t  a s the

f l y i n t h e

  ointment-

  1

In 1920 ten

  commodities, mostly products

  of the

  soi l , cot ton

leading

  t h e

  l i s t with wheat foll owin g second, con sti tu te d

  4 4 p e r

  cent

  of

t h e

  export values from

  t h e

  United S t a t e s . When

  we

  have

  t e n

  commodities

cons t i tu t ing c lose

  to one

  hal f

  of the

  goods

  we

  send overseas,

  and

  most

  of

them

  th e

  products

  of the

  farm,

  i t i s

  obvious that

  a

  shrinkage

  in the

demand

  f o r

  those products must have

  a

  very serious effect upon

  t h e

  pos i t ion

of

  everybody

  i n t h e

  agr icul tura l sec t ions

  and

  also upon manufacturing

  i n -

d u s t r i e s  i n  non-agricultural sect ions which depend  f o r a  large par t  of

their domestic market upon

  t h e

  buying power

  of the

  farmer* That so rt

  of

derangement works back,

  and

  t h i s

  i s

  what actually

  h a s

  been taking place

i n t h e

  l a s t

  s i x o r

  e igh t months* Europe

  i s

  poor , Europe

  i s n o t

  able

  to

ea t and

  dress

  and

  l i v e

  a s

  us ua l• Europe

  h a s n o t t h e

  buying power

  and

cannot borrow* Peo ple th er e

  a r e

  consequently

  n o t

  eat ing

  a s

  they ought

  f o r

t h e i r  own  good,  a s  well  a s f o r t h e  good  of th e  American farmer  who has

grown live stock

  to be

  eaten

  i n

  Europe

  or who has

  grown c ot to n

  to be

  worn

a f t e r

  i t i s

  manufactured,

  i n

  Europe*

I t i s a

  curious phenomenon,

  b u t i t i s a

  fac t that

  h a s

  been

demonstrated over  and  over ag ai n , th at even where  a  commodity  i s  consumed

perhaps  a s  much  as 90 per  cent  a t  home»  an d  only  t e n p e r  cent abroad,  i f

t h e

  market

  f o r

  t ha t

  t e n p e r

  cent

  i s

  destroyed

  o r

  s e r i ous l y cu r t a i l ed

  i t

will break

  th e

  p r i ce

  f o r t h e 90 p e r

  cent that

  i s

  consumed

  a t

  home. When

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-12-  X 3700

you

  have

  a

  commodity like cutton, that must find

  i t s

  principal market

abroad,  you can  readily understand that  t h e  cessa t ion  of  European buying

o r t h e

  serious diminution

  of

  European buying

  i s

  sure

  to

  work havoc

  no t

only  a s  regards  t h e  cot ton planter  b u t a s  regards everybody anywhere else

who is

  dependent

  on the

  cot ton planter

  a s h i s

  customer.

Wa  have  had a  shrinkage  of 53 P

e r

  cent  in our  expor t s  in the

course  of the  l a s t yea r .  The  amazing thing  to me is  that such  a  shrinkage

h a s n o t  worked  an  even more violent effect upon  o u r  domest ic s i tuat ion.

That shrinkage,

  i t

  should

  be

  added,

  i s o f

  course

  a

  shrinkage

  i n

  va l ue ,

  n o t

a  shrinkage  i n  volume. Pr ic es hav e gone down,  so  tha t  t h e  same bale  o f

cot ton  a s  would have taken  a  higher value  a  year  ago , o r the  same bushel

of

  wheat,

  now

  takes

  a

  lower value,

  The

  percentage f igure

  of

  shrinkage

  by

va l ue , t he r e f o r e ,  i n a  certain sense gives  an  exaggerated impression  of

what  h a s  happened. Estimate s  of  what  t h e  shrinkage  of  physical volume  h a s

been since

  t h e

  r eac t i on

  s e t i n a

  year

  ago

  indica te tha t

  i t i s

  about

  )0 pe r

cent. That

  i s to sa y , we a re

  sending about

  J> p e r

  cent less goods

  out of

t h e

  country

  i n

  po i n t

  of

  physical volume,--measured

  by

  cargo capacity,

  e t c . ,

'—than  a  year  a g o . I n  other words,  we a re  j u s t about back where  we  were

i n 1913* We a r e  shipping about  t h e  same volume  of  commodities  t o  foreign

markets  a s we d id i n 1913> i f  anything  a  l i t t l e  b i t  less , wi th  t h e  tendency

s t i l l downward acco rdin g

  t o t h e

  l a t e s t i nd i ca t i ons .

  And

  t h i s

  i s

  making

  a

very troublesome factor

  in ou r

  economic si tuat ion.

Since  1913  this country  h a s  grown  a  good deal.  The  census tel ls

u s  t ha t  we  have grown  in  populat ion  t o  about 106,000,OCX).  Bu t we  have also

grown  i n o u r  productive power,  i n o u r  a b i l i t y  t o  ship more vtfieat, more  c o m ,

more copper, iron  and  s t e e l  and  bacon  and  cot ton  and so on . Ye t  Europe  i s

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* 1 3 -

  X-3700

no t now i n a

  p o s i t i o n

  t o

  take

  a s

  much

  of

  these

  as i n 1 9 13 * I t i s

  evident ,

t h e r e f o r e ,

  why the

  markets

  f o r

  certain commodities

  a r e

  g l u t t e d

  i n

  this

country* Under

  t h e

  strain something

  h a s g o t t o

  give

  way .

  Something would

have

  t o

  give

  way

  even under more normal conditions«• Where co nd it io ns

  a r e

a s

  abnormal

  as now, and

  where everybody

  i s i n a

  mora

  o r

  less apprehensive

frame

  o f

  mind,

  t h e

  e f f e c t

  of

  accumulated supplies

  of

  bas ic s tap les

  i n

breaking pr ices  i s o f  course much greater*  The  r e s u l t  i s  th a t c e r t a in  of

o u r

  industries have been

  so

  thoroughly readjusted that their pr ices

  a r e

r e a l l y below normal* Their pr ic es

  a r e

  below what prices were

  in 1913

b e fo re

  t h e war

  broke upon

  t h e

  world# Unt il these pr ic es ,

  b y

  coming

  u p ,

meet ce rt ai n othe r pr ic es which have s t i l l

  to

  come down,

  t h e

  p a r a l l e l i s m

  o f

p r i c e s w i l l

  n o t

  have been reestablished

  and we

  s h a l l

  n o t

  have

  a

  good

condit ion*  I t i s my  opinion t hat  we  sh a l l  n o t  have  a  good condition until

Europe

  i s

  once more able

  t o

  come into

  t h e

  American market

  a s a

  f a i r l y

normal buyer•

  We

  have

  a

  domestic economic situation

  i n

  which

  t h e

  fo re ign

factor cannot

  b e

  neg lec ted

  f o r a

  moment

  b y

  anyone

  who

  wants

  t o g e t a

  l ine

on

  what

  we

  ought

  to do i f we a re to

  f i n d

  a

  c o r r e c t i o n

  of i t#

I n  this connect ion,  I  want  t o  ca l l your a t ten t ion  t o a  phenomenon

t h a t

  h a s

  been very s t r ik ing

  and to xry

  mind

  of

  alarming s ignif icance s ince

t h e

  f i r s t

  o f t h e

  year*

  I

  have

  i n

  mind

  t h e

  tremendous flood

  of

  gold that

  h a s

come  t o o u r  sh or es f rom Europe *

When t h i s movement f i r s t  s e t i n  l a s t autumn, the re  w a s a d i s -

4

p o s i t i o n  o n t h e  p a r t  of  some  of the  f in a n c i a l j o u rn a l s  t o  t a k e s a t i s f a c t io n

a n d

  pride

  i n i t *

  They cal le d a t te nt io n

  t o t h e

  fac t tha t

  we

  were

  t h e

  great

c r e d i to r n a t io n

  o f t h e

  world, that

  we

  were

  on a

  gold b a s i s , arid t ha t gold

w as  coming here  f o r  these reasons*  I t i s  true that gold  i s  coming h#re

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X-3700

because

  w e a r e t h e

  g r e a t c r e d i t o r n a t i o n

  o f t h e

  world*

  B u t i t i s

  wel l

  n o t

t o  overlook that wherever there  i s a  c r e d i t o r t h e r e i s - a l s o  a  debtor*  and

t h a t

  on t he

  average

  t h e

  p r o s p e r i t y

  o f t he

  c red i to r depends

  a

  good deal upon

t h e  p r o s p e r i t y  o f t h e  d e b t o r .  A  poor  an d  d i s t r e s s e d d e b t o r  i s n o t a  very

good asset  f o r a  c r e d i t o r  who  wants  t o b e  p rosperous  i n t h e  long run*

Thi s g r ea t i n f lux  of  gold tha t  h a s  been coming  t o u s i s  evidence

n o t o f t h e  r i c h e s  of  Europe  bu t o f t he  n e c e s s i t y  o f t h e  s i t u a t i o n  i n  which

E u r o p e f i n d s i t s e l f .  The  gold which  t h e  c o u n t r i e s  o f  Europe  a r e  sending  u s

England^ France, Sweden

  a n d t h e

  o t h e r s

  - is a

  measure

  of

  the i r need*

  I t i s

t h e  measure  o f  t h e i r n ee d, f i r s t ,  a n d  second  t h e  measure  o f  t h e i r d e t e r m i n -

a t i o n  t o  show t h e i r good f a i t h  b y  going  t h e  l i m i t  i n  seek ing  t o  e s t a b l i s h  o r

m a i n t a i n t h e i r c r e d i t  i n t h e  American marke t* They  a r e  sen din g gold he re

p a r t l y  i n  s e t t l e m e n t  o f  o b l i g a t i o n s a l r e a d y c o n t r a c t e d  a n d  p a r t l y  i n  order

t o

  create exchange

  t o

  t ake ca re

  of

  the i r cu r r en t pu rchases

  of

  things which

a r e  a b s o l u t e l y n e c e s s a r y  t o t h e  f u n c t i o n i n g  o f  t h e i r i n d u s t r i e s ,  a n d  f i n a l l y

t o  keep th ei r fo re ig n exchanges f rom ge t t in g fu r t he r demora l ized- This

gold movement,

  i n

  b r i e f , shows

  a

  d i s p o s i t i o n

  on

  t h e i r p a r t

  t o do

  t h e i r p a r t

a s  d e b t o r s  and a s  b u s i n e s s  men who are  long v i s ioned  a n d  have grea t re sp ec t

f o r t h e  u p b u i l d i n g  o f  t h e i r c r e d i t  t o a  h i g h l e v e l  i n t h e  American market*

We do not

  want th is gold ,

  w e do no t

  need

  i t # We

  have

  g o t

  more gold

now

  than

  we

  n e e d .

  S o h a s

  A r g e n t i n e ,

  s o h a s

  Japan . Russ i a

  i s

  p r a c t i c a l l y

s t r i p p e d  o f h e r  g o l d .  A  c o n s i d e r a b l e p a r t  o f t he  gold  we a r e  g e t t i n g  i s

undoubtedly  o f  R u s si a n o r i g i n .  I f n o t  i t s e l f Russian gold>  i t i s  gold from

European count r ies such

  a s

  France

  o r

  Sweden which r e pl ac e

  t h e

  gold they send

u s  with Russian gold*  T he  r e s t  i s  mainly  t h e n e w  gold th a t comes  t o t h e

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. 1 5 -  x- )700  " '

London markst from

  t h e

  South African mines

  and i s

  bought

  i n

  London

  f o r

American account because  t h e  d o l l a r  i s  c o n s t a n t l y  a t a  premium* There  i s

n o  b e t t e r  u s e  t h a t  th e man who h a s  South African  g o 4 i n  London  c a n p u t i t

t o  than  t o  s e l l  i t t o New  York  f o r  do l l a r s*

P r a c t i c a l l y  a l l of  th is gold  h a s  accumulated  i n t h e  hands  of the

Federal Reserve Banks.

  The

  Federal Reserve System

  h a s

  added

  i n t h e

  course

of t he  l a s t t wel ve months about $425,OuG,000  to i t s  gold re se rv e. Since  the

f i r s t  o f  this year when  t h e  f l o o d - t i d e  o f t he  movement  s e t i n , we  have

added

  t o ou r

  res er ve hol din gs about $340,000,000* These huge acc ess ion s

have na tu ra l ly  h a d  apronounced effect  i n  r a i s i n g  t h e  r e s e r v e r a t i o  of the

Federa l Reserve Tanks, par t icu lar ly  a s  l i q u i d a t i o n  was  going  on a t a  rapid

pace

  a t t h e

  same time.

  A

  year

  ago ou r

  r ese rve

  was 42 per

  cent; today

  i t i s

5 6 p e r  cent* This  i s a  r i s e  a t t h e  r a t e  of 33 P

e r

  cent  i n t h e  course  of a

year*  The  r e s e r v e r a t i o  h a s  r i s e n  t o t h e  extent  o f a t  least one-hal f

because  of the  g rea t i n f lux  of  gold into  t h e  Federal Reserve ^anks*  The

r e s t

  o f t he

  r i s e

  i s due t o

  l i q u i d a t i o n *

  We

  have reduced

  o u r

  n o t e c i r c u l a t i o n

i n t h e  pa st ye ar something l ik e $275*000,000.  We  have reduc ed  o u r  loans

a n d

  d i scoun t s

  by an

  amount something like $850,000,000*

  So we

  have

  had two

major inf lue nce s tha t expla in  t h e  change  i n t he  r a t i o  o f t h e  reserve system*

( l )  inc rease  i n t h e  gold reserves  and ( 2 )  diminut ion  i n  no te l i a b i l i t i e s .

The  diminut ion  o f t he  no te l i a b i l i t i e s  i s  l a r g e l y  t h e  r e s u l t  o f t h e e x -

t i n c t i o n

  of

  obligat ions owed

  b y

  member banks

  t o

  Federal Reserve -oanks,

  a n d

i s  r e f l e c t e d  i n t h e  marked decline  o f t h e  loans  an d  d i scoun t s  o f t he  Federal

Reserve Banks.

  B u t i t i s t he

  for e ig n gold th a t

  h a s

  made much

  of

  t h i s

  re- ,

duc t ion poss ib l e .

When  a  customer country  i s so  s i t u a t e d t h a t  i t c a n b u y  only  a s i t

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- l o -  X-3700

pays  i n  gold  i t i s  r easonab ly ce r t a in  t o  expect that that country  i s  going

t o b u y

  j u s t

  a s

  l i t t l e

  a s

  p o s s i b l e

  and

  tha t

  i t s

  buying

  i s

  going

  t o

  diminish

unt i l condi t ions change.

  So f a r

  from

  i t s

  ueir.g

  a

  c o n d i t i o n

  in

  which

  we

should t ake sa t i s f ac t i on ,— th i s g r ea t s t ream  o f  gold that  i s  f lowing  to u s

from Europe, —  rather should  i t  give  u s  occasion  t o  take pre t ty ser ious

thought

  o f

  what

  i s

  implied

  in i t * We

  cannot xpec t

  t o

  sell much

  t o

  Europe

i f we a re   going  t o  sel l only  f o r  caoh,  f o r  gold  .Nor  w i l l  i t b e o f  very

much  u s e t o u s t o g e t  more gold unless  we  know  h ow t o u s e i t . We  have

more gold than  we  need  now . Too  much gold  i s  almost  a s  s e r i o u s  a n  evi l

a s t o o  l i t t l e g o ld .  We may  f in d tha t  as o u r  le iera l Reserve ra t io keeps

r i s ing wi th add i t ions  of new  gold ,  t h e  r i s e  may s e t i n  opera t ion before

w e s e e th e en d of i t  some ver y un de si ra bl e movements.  A  hig h gol d re se rv e

does  n o t  necessar i ly make  f o r  economic heal th.  I t  does, however. make  i t

p o s s i b l e

  f o r u s , i f we

  know

  how to go

  about

  i t and i f we

  have

  t h e

  v i s ion

a n d  purpose ,  t o  develop  a  system  of  fo re ign t - ade f inanc ing  in a id o f

Europe, through  t h e  agency  o f o u r  banks with  t h e  a s s i s t a n c e  o f t h e  Federal

Be

serve Banks.

T he  l a s t  f e w  months have made  i t s o  c le ar tha t there  i s no

doubting that  o u r  economic recovery  i s  dependent upon  t h e  economic

r e s t o r a t i o n  o f  Europe.  We  might  a s  well give  u p as an  i d l e  d a y  dream  t h e

thought that  w e c a n g e t o u t ,  a l t o g e t h e r  a n d  s a f e l y  o u t , o f o u r  present

economic d i f f i cu l t i e s , excep t

  a s

  Europe works back toward

  a

  more healthy

  an d

normal con di t ion . Ei t her

  we

  have

  g o t t o

  r e c o n s t r u c t

  o u r

  whole internal

economic organizat ion ,—

  we

  have

  g o t t o

  grow le s s co t t on ,

  we

  have

  go t to

grow less corn  a n d  wheat,  we  have  g o t t o  grow le ss l i ve st oc k,  e t c . , a n d

f ind o ther uses  f o r t h e  r e s o u r c e s  a n d  people  now  employed  i n  a g r i c u l t u r e —

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I *

WW

- 1 7 -

  X-3700

( the se th ings  a r e  e a s i l y s a id  b u t  they  a r e  cLonf with extreme diff iculty  an d

i t  takes  a  long time  to do  t h e m l ) o r e l s e  we  have  g o t t o  h e l p  t o  r e s to r e

t h e  buying power,  an d  that means restore  t h e  producing power,  of the

c r ipp led peop le s  o f  Europe» That means,  a s t h e  f i r s t s t e p , t h a t  we  have  go t

t o  devise ways  a n d  means  of  f i n a n c i n g  t h e  expor t  o f o u r  sur pl us. farm

produc ts  a n d  some  o f our  surplus minera l produc ts  t o  Europe  o n  c red i t*

Under

  t h e

  ausp ice s

  o f th e

  Federal Reserve Board, Congress enacted

a law

  known

  a s t h e

  Edge

  A c t

  because

  i t w as

  f a t h e r e d

  b y a

  member

  o f t he

Senate v$io

  i s

  v i t a l l y i n t e r e s t e d

  i n

  what

  can b e

  done

  b y

  F e d e r al l e g i s l a t i o n

t o  open  a way to  coope ra t ive bank ing e f f o r t  i n  t h i s coun t ry  t o  f inance

exports# Something  h a s  been accomplished under that,  b u t  thus  f a r t o o

l i t t l e * C o n s i d e r i n g

  o u r

  v a u n t e d s p i r i t

  o f

  e n t e r p r i s e ,

  o u r

  v a u n t e d s p i r i t

o f  adventure , there  h a s  been,  I  t h i n k ,  a  s ingu la r apa thy  i n t h e  la s t yea r

a*id  a  ha lf wi th respe c t  t o t h e  need  of  f i n d i n g  o r  developing ways  and  means

b y

  which

  we can

  sa fe ly hook

  u p

  with Europe

  i n a

  commercial

  wa y. The gap or

r i f t t h a t e x i s t s  i n t h e  i nt e r na t i on a l economic s t ru c t ur e invo lvi ng Europe

a n d t h e  United States must  b e  br idged through  t h e  medium  o f  adequa te  an d

p r o t e c t e d c r e d i t s . Th at  i s a n  urgent problem  o f  concern  t o  every sec t ion

o f th e  country*  I t c a n b e  s o lv e d ,  b u t i t  s t i l l a w a it s s o l u t i o n  a n d  n a t i o n a l

economic recovery waits  on  th a t s o lu t i o n .

I am n o t  h e r e  to  p r e s e n t  an y  s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s .  I d o n o t  regard

t h i s  a s a n  appr opr i a te , occa s ion  f o r  tha t purpose ,  I am  he re  t o t r y t o i n -

duce

  in y o u , an d t o g e t y o u to

  induce

  i n

  others with whom

  y o u

  come

  i n

c o n t a c t ,  a n  a t t i t u d e  o f  mind th&t will  be  hospi table toward  t h e  deve lop-

ment  a n d  promotion  o f  well—considered projects  f o r t h e  f i n a n c i n g  o f our

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. r p

- I S -  X-3700  ' f

  c

-

export trade

  t o

  Europe

  and

  other countries,—• Taut

  t o

  Europe primarily,—

  a s

they

  may be

  presented.

Let me

  t e l l

  y o u ,

  simply

  as an

  example

  o f t he

  i n t e r e s t

  of the

Federal Reserve Board  i n  this mat ter  of  he lp ing  t h e  f inanc ing  o f o u r e x -

por t t rade , tha t

  th e

  Board recently issued

  a

  ru l ing au thor iz ing

  t h e

  Federal

Be

 se rve Banks

  i n

  t he ir open market ope rat ion s

  to buy

  ban ker s' acc eptances

of a  matur i ty  o f s i x  months. This st ep would  n o t  have been taken except

under  t h e  pressure  of a  p re t t y r ea l s i t ua t i o n .  I n  normal times reserve

banks should r e s t r i c t themselves

  t o

  shor t matur i t i es

  - n o t

  exceeding

  90

  $iays.

That  i s a  good principle  f o r  normal times.  B ut  these  a r e n o t  normal times.

There  a r e  some things that  are now  more important than pr ot ec ti ng  the

t e chn i ca l l i qu id i t y  of the  Federal Reserve Banks.  We  recognize tha t  our

f i r s t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

  i s t o

  help business carry

  on and

  r ev ive ,

  t o

  help

business  i n  every  way as  wisely  as we  know  how . One  th ing  I can say in

this connection

  i s t o

  pledge that

  t h e

  Federal Reserve Board,

  a s

  long

  a s i t

i s o f i t s  present frame  of  mind, will always test credit  b y  what credit

i s  doing  t o  he lp  t h e  production  and  d i s t r i b u t i o n  o f  goods,  t o  he lp  the

movemsnt

  of

  goods from

  th e

  farm

  t o t h e

  f ac to ry

  and

  from

  th e

  mine

  to t he

foundry

  a n d

  from factory

  an d

  foundry into

  t h e

  markets

  of

  consumption,

whether those markets

  be

  here

  o r

  abroad. Recognizing th at

  a t t h e

  present

i t i s t h e

  f orei gn market that p ar t i cu la r l y needs

  t h e

  a s s i s t ance

  of new

f inancial machinery,

  we

  have rece nt ly taken, th is ste p

  b y

  which

  th e

  exporter

i n  this country  i s  f r e e  to go to  arrange  an  acceptance credi t ,  an d  have  s i x

months b i l l s drawn with

  t h e

  knowledge that they

  can be

  taken

  t o a

  Federal

Reserve Bank  and  tha t  th e  Federal Reserve Bank  i s  authorized  t o  purchase

them. More th an t h i s  , the  Federal Reserve Banks have  t h e  resources  t o  make

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- 1 y -

  X~37QO

i • - v-'

investments

  i n

  such b i l l s

  t o

  large amounts.

This

  may n q t

  appear

  to "be a

  v ary s t r i k i n g c o n t r ib u t io n

  t o o u r

export financing problem-  I  th in k  i t a  very important step,  an d o n e  bound,

t o

  y i e l d r e s u l t s

  i f

  expor te rs

  an d

  bankers know

  how to

  avai l themselves

  o f

i t . A t a n y

  r a t e ,

  i t

  r e p re se n t s

  a l l

  tha t

  t h e

  Federal Reserve Board under

t h e

  s t a t u t e

  c a n do - We

  hav e shown

  o u r

  d i s p o s i t i o n

  t o g o to t h e

  l i m i t

  p e r -

mit ted  b y t h e l a w .

I n  conc lus ion ,  l e t m e  express  my  ind ivi dua l be li ef th at gloomy  a s

t h e

  s i t u a t i o n

  o f t h e

  world looks

  a t t h e

  moment,

  i t i s f a r

  b a t t e r t ha n

  i t •

locks- Things

  a r e

  mending. That ought

  t o

  give

  u s

  s p i r i t

  and

  confidence

  f o r

t h e  f u t u r e .  Th s o n e  th in g  I  would urge  a t  this t ime  i s  t ha t every busi nes s

m an

  should maintain belief-

  i n h i s

  country

  a n d i t s

  f u t u r e

  an d

  b e l i e f -

  i n h i m -

s e l f ;

  b u t

  also , beyond that , bel ief

  i n £ h e

  world .

  Do n o t

  imagine

  f o r a

moment that

  t h e

  bottom

  h a s

  dropped

  ou t o f

  c i v i l i z a t i o n .

  Do n o t

  imagine

f o r a  moment that  t h e  people  o f  Francs  o r  Germany  o r  I t a l y  o r  England  a r e

s s s e n t i a l l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m  u s . I f we  have common sense  l e t u s  a lso c red i t

them with common sense.

  If we

  have fa i th

  in our own

  i n t e g r i t y ,

  l e t u s

  have

f a i t h

  i n

  t h e i r i n t e g r i t y .

  I f we

  ha ve f a i t h

  i n o u r

  de te rmina t ion

  and

  a b i l i t y

t o

  meet

  o u r

  problems,

  l e t u s

  have fa i th

  i n

  th e i r d e t e rmin a t io n

  a n d

  a b i l i t y

t o

  meet their problems-

  I t i s

  only

  as we

  d i s t r us t each o ther

  a s

  nat ions

th a t  we  h&ve reason  to be  apprehensive  of the  f u t u r e -

When  I  reflect upon what  h a s  taken place  i n t h e  l a s t seven year s

t h e

  amazing thing

  to me i s

  t h a t

  t h e

  world

  i s

  going forward

  a s

  r a p id ly

  a s

i t i s .

  7ilhen

  t h e

  whole s t ructure

  of

  c i v i l i z a t i o n

  h a s

  gotten such

  a

  j o l t

  a s

i t g o t b y t h e w a r i t

  takes some time

  t o g a t

  th in gs i nto working ord er .

  But

every  d a y  tha t passes  i s a d ay  fur ther away from this condit ion  of  th ings

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~2 0- a - 3 ZOO

an d a d ay  nea re r  t h e  a t ta inment  of a  vorking b a s i s . What  we  want  a t  th is

time

  i s t o

  have

  a n

  a t t i t u d e

  and to

  h e l p c u l t i v a t e

  a n

  a t t i t u d e

  of

  confidence

i n

  ourse lves , conf idence

  in o u r

  f u t u r e

  an d

  conf idence

  i n t h e

  a b i l i t y

  o f the

n a t i o n s  of  Europe gradually  t o  resume their normal relat ionship with  u s

an d th e  r e s t  o f the  world . C iv i l i za t ion  i s  going  o n* I t i s  merely  a

ques t ion

  o f

  whether with

  o u r a i d t h e

  recovery wi l l

  b e

  r ap id

  o r

  whether

without

  i t i t

  will have

  to be

  slow, With f a i t h

  w e c a n d o a l l .

  F a i t h

  i s

t h e  foundat ion  of  cred i t* Credi t  i s t h e  foundat ion  of  b u s i n e s s ,  a n d  jus t

a t

  th is juncture

  i t i s

  par t i cu la r ly wha t

  i s

  needed

  t o

  give

  a

  f i l l i p

  to o u r

foreign trade, without whose recovery things

  a r e

  going

  t o

  l i n g e r

  an d

  drag.