fss 2015 debate lecture - mesa @ ucmerced · mesa lab. skip ad in fractional minutes. fss15 debate...
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MESA LAB
FSS 2015 Debate LectureBetter Understanding Complexities via Fractional
Calculus: from Extreme Events to Taoism
YangQuan Chen, Ph.D., Director, MESA (Mechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation)LAB
ME/EECS/SNRI/HSRI/CITRIS, School of Engineering,University of California, Merced
E: [email protected]; or, [email protected]: (209)228-4672; O: SE1-254; Lab: Castle #22 (T: 228-4398)
October 1st, 2015. Wednesday 16:00-17:00PMTechnical University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania
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Acknowledgements• Thank you, organizers of FSS15! • Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania
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Skip Ad in fractional minutesFSS15 Debate Lecture
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University of California, Merced• The Research University of
the Central Valley• Centrally Located
– Sacramento – 2 hrs– San Fran. – 2 hrs– Yosemite – 1.5 hrs– LA – 4 hrs
• Surrounded by farmlands and sparsely populated areas
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UC Merced• Established 2005• 1st research university in
21st century in USA.• 6,685 Undergraduates• 448 Grads (most Ph.Ds)
• Strong Undergraduate Research Presence (HSI, MSI)
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MESA LAB
The MESA Lab• Mechatronics, Embedded
Systems, Automation Lab• http://mechatronics.ucmerced.edu• Lab Director: Prof. YangQuan Chen
– Lab Manager: Brandon Stark– 5 Ph.D. Students– 1 MSc Student– 40+ Undergrads– 9 Visiting Ph.D. Students– 6 Visiting Professors/Scholars
• Unmanned Aerial Systems• Cyber-Physical Systems• Renewable Energy Systems• Mechatronic Systems• Applied Fractional Calculus
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Data Drone Valley10/1/2015
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Some other books, almost touched FC
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“We may express our concepts in Newtonian terms if we find this convenient but, if we do so, we must realize that we have made a translation into a language which is foreign to the system which we are studying.” (1950)
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From Brian Castellani & Frederic William Hafferty (Eds.). “Sociology & Complexity Science -A New Field of Inquiry.” Springer 2009.
What’s beyond?
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My submission:
Fractional dynamics point of view
ofcomplex systems for complexity characterization and regulation
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Summary of the key messages• Real worlds are complex• We human beings perceive the complexity via our
mental prism (lens)• The prism (lens) is “IPL” (inverse power law) if
we use integer order calculus, “Mittag-Leffer” if we use fractional calculus
• Tail matters (玄之又玄)10/1/2015 FSS15 Debate Lecture
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dark_Side_of_the_Moon#mediaviewer/File:Dsotm30.jpg
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Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/atheism_christian_apologetics/11078762214/in/photostream/
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“fractional calculus” appeared once10453 pages, p.1416
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“fractional” appeared 0 times
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Dr. Chen’s theorem if not axiom
• “Power Law” should read “Mittag-Leffler Law”
• When you talk about “power law”, you are talking about fractional calculus.
• Corollary: When you talk about “stretched exponential”, you are almost talking about fractional calculus!
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From “bow tie” to “mental prism”
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IPL
Scale-Free, Heavy-Tailedness, Long Range Dependence, Long Memory …
Complex systems.
phenomena,behaviors, …
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IPL
Scale-Free, Heavy-Tailedness, Long Range Dependence, Long Memory …
Complex systems.
phenomena,behaviors, …
Fractional dynamic Fractional calculus
based models
Mittag-Leffler Law
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Integer Order CalculusExponential Law
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btextxxxtbxtx
−=
=−=
0
0
)()0(),()(
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Fractional Order CalculusPower Law
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!)1()1(
)1()(
)1(/)(,)(
)(
)(
kknote
tkT
kt
cttxRctx
kk
=+Γ+−
+Γ=
+Γ=
∈=
−αα
α
α
α
α
α
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Fractional Order CalculusInverse Power Law
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)()()1,0()0(),()(
,1
0
0)1()(
ααα
α
αα α
btEtxtxxxtbxtx
−=
∈=−=−
−
Mittag-Leffler function in two parameters:
E1,1(x)=ex)()( 1, xExE αα =
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G. M. Mittag-Leffler(1846-1927)
Professor Donald E. Knuth, creator of TEX:
“As far as the spacing inmathematics is concerned...Itook Acta Mathematica, from1910 approximately; this was ajournal in Sweden ... Mittag-Leffler was the editor, and hiswife was very rich, and they hadthe highest budget for makingquality mathematics printing. Sothe typography was especiallygood in Acta Mathematica.”(Questions and Answers with Prof. Donald E. Knuth, Charles University, Prague, March 1996)
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The Mittag-Lefflerfunction
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Root of long (algebraic) tail, or inverse power law
Tail MATTERS!
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IPL
Scale-Free, Heavy-Tailedness, Long Range Dependence, Long Memory …
Complex systems.
phenomena,behaviors, …
Fractional dynamic
Fractional calculus based models
Mittag-Leffler Law
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IPL
Scale-Free, Heavy-Tailedness, Long Range Dependence, Long Memory …
Complex systems.
phenomena,behaviors, …
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Power Law
• “Scaling laws in cognitive sciences” by CT Kello, GDA Brown, R Ferrer-i-Cancho, JG Holden, K Linkenkaer-Hansen, T. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 14 (5), 223-232, 2010
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When k is negative: Inverse power law
Scale invariance
Scale-free
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In Different Contexts• Scale-free networks (degree distributions)• Pink noise (power spectrum)• Probability density function (PDF)• Autocorelation function (ACF)• Allometry (Y=a Xb )• Anomalous relaxation (evolving over time)• Anomalous diffusion (MSD versus time)• Self-similar
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Other connectedness to FC? (hidden)• Fractal, irregular, anomalous, rough, Hurst
– Multifractal, multi-scale, scale-rich• Renormalization (?), Universality• Extreme events– spikiness, bursty, intermittence• Fluctuation in fluctuations; Variability, • Emergence, Surprise, Black swan• Nonlocality, Long term memory• Complex (behavior, processes, network, fluid, dynamics,
systems …)• When the forest is big, there are all types of birds ("It takes
all kinds” 林子大了什么鸟都有), 20/80 rule(二八定律)10/1/2015 FSS15 Debate Lecture
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http://www.cafepress.com/thepowerlawshop
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Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/atheism_christian_apologetics/11078762214/in/photostream/
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Root of long (algebraic) tail, or inverse power law
Tail MATTERS!
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IPL
Scale-Free, Heavy-Tailedness, Long Range Dependence, Long Memory …
Complex systems.
phenomena,behaviors, …
Fractional dynamic
Fractional calculus based models
Mittag-Leffler Law
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“Fractional Order Thinking” or, “In Between Thinking”
• For example– Between integers there are non-integers;– Between logic 0 and logic 1, there is the “fuzzy logic”;– Between integer order splines, there are “fractional order
splines”– Between integer high order moments, there are noninteger
order moments (e.g. FLOS)– Between “integer dimensions”, there are fractal dimensions– Fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) – in-between time-n-freq.– Non-Integer order calculus (fractional order calculus – abuse of
terminology.) (FOC)
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0
1
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MESA LABComplex relaxation in NMR
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http://www.ispub.com/journal/the-internet-journal-of-radiology/volume-13-number-1/in-vivo-mr-measurement-of-refractive-index-relative-water-content-and-t2-relaxation-time-of-various-brain-lesions-with-clinical-application-to-discriminate-brain-lesions.article-g08.fs.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metastasis
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T2 relaxation in NMR
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http://hs.doversherborn.org/hs/bridgerj/DSHS/apphysics/NMR/T2.htm
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Carr–Purcell–Meiboom–Gill (CPMG) pulse sequence, as shown in Fig. 1, is widely used to measure spin–spin relaxationtime T210/1/2015 FSS15 Debate Lecture
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T2 relaxation in NMR
magnetization decay data M(t) with poor SNR
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MESA LABComplex relaxation: How to
characterize or model it?• Debye relaxation
• Distributed-parameter (infinite # of time constants)
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(H. Fröhlich, 1949)
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MESA LABComplex relaxation: How to better
characterize or model it?• Cole-Cole (1941)
• Distributed-parameter (infinite # time constants)
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(Hu, Li and Chen, IEEE CDC 2010)
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MESA LAB
More complex relaxation models• Havriliak-Negami
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• Cole-Davidson
• Distributed-order case? Sure!
( ) ( )1
0d
1γ
f γH s γ
τs=
+∫
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MESA LABAn illustration
� α = 0.75, T=1 sec.
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• Distributed-parameter (infinite time constants)
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MESA LAB
Scanning the “order” and fitting
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The order information might be important in diagnosis of cancer, trauma etc. for treatment responses …
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MESA LAB
Fractional noises / fluctuations
fBm
fGn
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anti-persistent persistent
Normal Gaussian noise
http://www.frontiersin.org/Fractal_Physiology/10.3389/fphys.2012.00208/full
Brownian motion, orWeiner process
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MESA LAB
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A.-L. Barabási. The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics. Nature 435 207–211 (2005).
Poisson PDF
http://seeingcomplexity.wordpress.com/2011/03/07/global-android-activations-and-the-power-law/
Inverse power law PDF
Spikiness/Burstiness
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MESA LAB
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Examples of the power law slope in a) a patient with cardiac disease; and b) a healthy person.
Phyllis K. Stein, Ph.D., Anand Reddy, M.D. “Non-Linear Heart Rate Variability and Risk Stratification in Cardiovascular Disease” Indian Pacing and Electrophysiology Journal (ISSN 0972-6292), 5(3): 210-220 (2005)
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MESA LAB
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Stable Distributions
http://academic2.american.edu/~jpnolan/stable/stable.html
α=2: Gaussianα=1, β=0: Cauchyα=1.5,β=1: Levy
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MESA LAB
Connection to FC via PDF• “Fractional Calculus and Stable Probability
Distributions” (1998) by Rudolf Gorenflo , Francesco Mainardi http://arxiv.org/pdf/0704.0320.pdf
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MESA LAB
Heavy tail, fat tail
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MESA LAB
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Brownian motion Levy flights
Long jumps, intermittence
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MESA LABSpikiness/Burstiness
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MESA LAB
“Spikiness”
Long-range dependence
Self-similar
Fractional Brownian motion (FBm)
Fractional Gaussiannoise (FGn)
α-stable distributions
Hurst parameter
“Heavy tails”
NETWORK TRAFFIC
ARFIMA
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MESA LAB
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Long-range dependence• History: The first model for long range
dependence was introduced by Mandelbrot and Van Ness (1968)
• Value: financial data communications networks datavideo trafficbiocorrosion data
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MESA LAB
Motivations: Long Memory or LRD
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Concept of persistency – shot responses
short memory
long memory
DOI 10.1007/s00477-005-0029-y
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MESA LAB
SRD vs LRD• Short-range dependent (SRD) processes are
characterized by an autocorrelation function which decays exponentially fast;
• Long-range dependence (LRD) processes exhibit a much slower decay of the correlations - their autocorrelation functions typically obey some inverse power law.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-range_dependency
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MESA LABMathematically,
• A stationary process is said to have long-range correlations if its covariance function C(n) (assume that the process has finite second-order statistics) decays slowly as n→∞, i.e. for 0 < α < 1,
where c is a finite, positive constant.• The weakly-stationary time-series X(t) is said to be
long range dependent if its spectral density obeys f(λ) ∼ Cf |λ|−β as λ → 0, for some Cf > 0 and some real parameter β ∈ (0, 1).
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MESA LAB
Heavy tailedness and Long tailedness• The distribution of a random variable X with
distribution function F is said to have a heavy right tail if
• The distribution of a random variable X with distribution function F is said to have a long right tail if for all t > 0,
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if you know the situation is bad, it is probably worse than you think.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy-tailed_distribution
NOTE: long-tailed distributions are heavy-tailed, but the converse is false
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MESA LAB
100+ years of LRD/HT research• Distribution of wealth, income of individuals (20-80 rule 二八定律)• City sizes vs. ranks - given the population, what is the city rank?• Graphs of gene regulatory & protein-protein networks are scale free• Long neuron inter-spike intervals in depressed mice• Internet and WWW - scale free network (graph): fault tolerant, hubs
are both the strength and Achilles’ heels• Scene lengths in VBR and MPEG video are heavy-tailed• Computer files, Web documents, frequency of access are heavy-tailed • Stock price fluctuations and company sizes• Inter occurrence of catastrophic events, earthquakes - applications to
reinsurance• Frequency of words in natural languages (often called Zipf’s law)
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Ubiquity of Power Laws, Jankovic, 2007
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MESA LAB
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Fractional Calculus, LRD, Power Law,
αssH 1)( =
White Noise
)()(
1
α
α
Γ=
−tth απατ
στα
cos)2(2)(
122
Γ=
−
Ryy
u(t) y(t)
α2/1 fPower laws in
•Signal/Systems•Probability distribution•Random processes (correlation functions)
noise (signal) generation via fractional dynamic systemy(t) is a Brownian motion when α=1, i.e., process. 2/1 f
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MESA LAB
Running variance estimate is not convergent!
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MESA LAB
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Noise - 1
Normal distribution N(0,1) Sample Variance
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
time
grou
nd m
otio
n cm
/s/s
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
number of pointses
timat
ed v
aria
nce
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MESA LAB
Statistics, Sociology, Natural Phenomenon, and Economics
FSS15 Debate Lecture10/1/2015
http://cours-physique.lps.ens.fr/index.php/TD4_Errors_2012_Fluctuations
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2164536/BBCs-coverage-Arab-Spring-sporadic-ignoring-uprisings-failed-favour-big-stories-Libya-Egypt.html
http://www.shutterstock.com/s/global+warming/search.html
http://blogs.swa-jkt.com/swa/10321/tag/economics/
Statistics Sociology Nature
Economics
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MESA LAB
Reality is More of a Levy Walk
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
year
Flas
hmob
Siz
e Fig. 2.8 Simulating the formation of flashmobspontaneously formed by listening to neighbors leads to a long-tailed size-distribution
Self-Similar Statistics
EXTREME events are NATURAL. What are some causes??
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Wandering albatrosses flight search patterns
G.M. Viswanathan, et al. Nature 381 (1996) 413–415.
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GPS traces of human movein NCSU campus
I. Rhee, et al. IEEE INFOCOM 2008 Prceedings, Phoenix, Arizona: Curran Associates.
10/1/2015
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MESA LABRecap – key msg• Real worlds are complex• We human beings perceive the complexity via our
mental prism (lens)• The prism (lens) is “IPL” (inverse power law) if
we use integer order calculus, “Mittag-Leffer” if we use fractional calculus
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IPL
Scale-Free, Heavy-Tailedness, Long Range Dependence, Long Memory …
Complex systems.
phenomena,behaviors, …
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MESA LAB
In Different Contexts• Scale-free networks (degree distributions)• Pink noise (power spectrum)• Probability density function (PDF)• Autocorelation function (ACF)• Allometry (Y=a Xb )• Anomalous relaxation (evolving over time)• Anomalous diffusion (MSD versus time)• Self-similar
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MESA LAB
Other connectedness to FC? (hidden)• Fractal, irregular, anomalous, rough, Hurst
– Multifractal, multi-scale, scale-rich• Renormalization (?), Universality• Extreme events– spikiness, bursty, intermittence• Fluctuation in fluctuations; Variability, • Emergence, Surprise, Black swan• Nonlocality, Long term memory• Complex (behavior, processes, network, fluid, dynamics,
systems …)• When the forest is big, there are all types of birds ("It takes
all kinds” 林子大了什么鸟都有), 20/80 rule(二八定律)10/1/2015 FSS15 Debate Lecture
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MESA LAB
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Root of long (algebraic) tail, or inverse power law
Tail MATTERS!
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MESA LAB
G.W. Scott Blair (1950)
• “We may express our concepts in Newtonian terms if we find this convenient but, if we do so, we must realize that we have made a translation into a language which is foreign to the system which we are studying.”
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MESA LAB
We are here
Fractional Calculus: a response to more advanced characterization of our more complex world at smaller scale
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MESA LAB
Integer-Order Calculus Fractional-Order Calculus
Slide credit: Richard L. Magin, ICCC1210/1/2015
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MESA LAB
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Rule of thumb for “Fractional Order Thinking”
• Self-similar• Scale-free/Scale-
invariant• Power law• Long range
dependence (LRD)• 1/f a noise
• Porous media• Particulate• Granular• Lossy• Anomaly• Disorder• Soil, tissue, electrodes,
bio, nano, network, transport, diffusion, soft matters (biox) …
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MESA LAB
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A snap shot of discussion board of Igor Podlubny and YangQuan Chen in Sept. 2005
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MESA LAB
New wisdom equipped with FC• 道可道,非常道。------世间万物的运行规律是可以被描述的,但它们并非一成不变的。
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The nature’s rule (of complexity)could
be explained
by non-normalway
Non-normal way: Fractional Calculus!Heavytailedness
http://220.178.124.24:8080/wbbbs/archiver/?tid-16226.html
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MESA LAB
New wisdom equipped with FC• 玄之又玄,众妙之门。-------了解这类对立统
一体相互转变的规律,就是通向对世间万物理解的大门。
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Non-normal way:
Fractional Calculus!Heavytailedness
http://220.178.124.24:8080/wbbbs/archiver/?tid-16226.html
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MESA LAB
New wisdom equipped with FC• "God is in the detail”• “The Devil is in the detail”
– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Devil_is_in_the_detail
• "God is in the tail”• “The Devil is in the tail”
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MESA LAB
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Conclusions• 7/13/1865 - “Go west, young man. Go West and grow up
with the country. ” – Horace Greeley (1811-1872)
• “Go Fractional. It’s urgent!” – YangQuan Chenhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/American_progress.JPG
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MESA LAB
Thank you for your attention!• Q/A
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MESA LAB
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