DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 316 624

TITLE

INSTITUTIONPUB DATENOTEPUB TYPE

Populationat Home.Population8965p.Reports -

UD 027 316

Pressures Abroad and Immigration Pressures

Crisis Committee Washington, D.C.

Descriptive (141) -- Statistical Data (110)

EDRS PRICEDESCRIPTORS

MF01/PC03 Plus Postage.Birth Rate; *Foreign Countries; Futures (of Society);*Immigrants; *Labor Needs; Labor Supply; Legislation;Migrant Education; "Migration Patterns; PopulationDistribution; Population Growth; *Population Trends;Undocumented Immigrants; Urbanization

IDENTIFIERS Africa; Asia; Europe; * Immigration Impact;Immigration Law; Latin America; "-United States

ABSTRACTThis report discusses population trf ds abroad and

their relation to immigration pressures and policies in the UnitedStates. The following sections are included: (1) "Two Major Waves ofImmigration"; (2) "The U.S.--A Major Host Nation for PermanentImmigrants"; (3) "Changing Sources of Immigrants to the Unitedstates "; (4) "Current and Future Migrant Streams"; (5) "The Rise ofIllegal Immigration to the United States"; (6) "Characteristics ofthe Top Immigrant Sending Countries"; (7) "The Pace of WorldPopulation Growth"; (B) "Age Structure's Influence on Migration"; (9)"World Labor Force Growth"; (10) "Labor Force Growth vs. JobCreation--a Case Study of Mexico; (11) "Rapid Urbanization--FurtherSpur to Immigration; (12) "New Immigrants to the U.S.--Where TheySettle, How They Are Doing"; (13) "The Mismatch Between New U.S. Jobsand Immigrant Workers; (14) "Education and Immigration- -The Case ofCalifornia"; (15) "Immigration Policy and U.S. Population Size"; and(16) "U.S. Resources for Population Stabilization and Third Wor14.Development." Twenty-nine figures and two tables are included.(a)

************************ft*****************************W****************Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made

from the original document.*******************************K****************************U**********

24.

U d DIEPARTMIENT EDOCATtoodtch.ror.ono Fteet4ottlt and inwetvvouttni

EDUCKIX)NAL m SOURC1-S INFORMATIONCLOTH:I !ERIC;

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TO THE EDUCATIONA, RESOURCESINFORMATION CENTER (EMI."

United States Impact Series

Population PressuresAbroad and Immigration

Pressures at Home

hiblishe(i try ihe

Population Crisis CommitteeSuite 550 1120 19th Street, N.W.

Washington,1).C. 20036-3605

1989

Two Major Waves of Immigration

The United States has long beena "nation of immigrants" wherepeople from many cultures, racesand creeds have come together toforge a new national identity.

Since 1820, when statistics werefirst collected, the United Stateshas admitted some 55 million im-migrants in a series of ebbs andflows.

The largest wave of legal immi-gration began in 19(M) and contin-ued until World War 1. Duringthis peric,l, the United States ad-mitted over 13 million immi-grants. most of them European.This migrant stream was equal toabout 15 percent of Europeanpopulation growth between 1900and 1915.

In 1923 Congress passed restric-tive immigration legislation in re-sponse to a resurgence in immi-gration following World War I

2 5

and changes in the countriessending immigrants. In subse-quent decades immigration de-clined, dropping to historicallows during the Depression andWorld War II.

After World War 11 legal immi-gration and refirgee flows beganto grow slowly again. In 1965, theUnited States abandoned the oldnational origins quota system andlilted the ban on Asian unigra-lion that had existed since 1882.tinder the 196.5 law, as amended,80 percent of immigrant visas arc'allocated on the basis of familyconnections and 20 percent onthe basis of skills and education.

Today combined legal and ille-gal immigration is again ap-proaching the historical recordsset at the turn of the century.lowever, these rising numbers

represent only a small portion ofthe people who express a desire tocome to the United States.

In 1989, a lottery" for 20,000immigrant slots generated over3.2 million applications Fromaround the world.

Population growth aboard, nowover 90 million people a year, andits negative impact on economic:progress can be expected to driveincreased demand fur immigra-tion in the years ahead.

Million*Legal Immigration to the U.S., 1900-1945

Ir23Rest' thins Farrel

191H) 1905 1910 1915

titiorrel VAN7 flOoul Erot &sit 9 th, imiumarvit rout Nn1uto 1,:oloai Vomit

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

1930 1.935 1911)

Legal and Illegal Immigration to the U.S.. 19451990

1965 Immigration law

_.....Min.."--

19 15

1945 1950 1955 1960 190 1970 1975 1980 198! 1990

Sunman 14{8'7 ShOlsiod Plotkin+ 9 thr hoongratoot a.4 Nolorolnahon 'fen tleTorlinio1 Noun 19$9.9&J 444 en imairtl

7

I

The U.S. A Major Host Nation forPermanent Immigrants

The United States currently ac-cepts nearly as many legal immi-grants and refugees for perma-nent settlement a'; :he rest of theworld combined.

In 1986, the latest year fotwhit h internationally c4nurrabledata are available, the UnitedStates took 64 percent more k-galimmigrants for permanent settle-ment than any other country.

Canada, Australia, and WestGermany also accepted substan-tial numbers of legal immigrantsand, relative to their population,took a larger portion than theUnited States.

Large numbers of refugees,guestworkers and illegal immi-grants also reside in a number ofother countries, including somevery poor Third World countries.Few of these countries, however,

4

accept large numbers of immi-grants lilt permanent settlement.

1;) general, most other countrieshave been tightening immigrantadmissions in recent ye:IrS, deSpiieor because of increased migrationpressures. This trend includes mostWestern European commies. whichhistorically have taken large num-bers f.if immigrants, and manyTid World countries alreadyhard-pressed to meet ;he needs oftheir own g' )wing populations.

flutioaudh

MX)

600

400

200

0

Permanent Legal Immigrant Admissionsto Major Host Countries, 1986

103,114 99,110

SlatesHirst

CermanyAustt alit :a siatla Flatitt.

&Mira t )1144411141443 ha FA 6M11134114 (.4111priMUM. AtIfildill 1947 t://..tuitstatt itypsating Syttets4 tog AfiLnuttossTrchm.-al Noir: LIeue tia pet I alit hsthltsaiatsri. Is Inn irmsts ti.stA l.0 11040Iii 'XI MASI .rtiy in lobs; t maws Irb trinnAtif tin the to IA .K/71.3 ft PAY 7 limit mum* ii,10.4 ring .V1.1.krit

10

t 10 3 I .1

r,

Changing Sources of Immigrants tothe United States

Since 1965, legal immigration tothe United States has more thandoubled and the main sourcecountries have chan:;ed.

The most dramatic change is therapid growth of Asian immigrantsfrom 20,000 per year in 1965 toover 250,000 per year today.Currently, nearly half of all legalimmigrants to the United Statescome from Asia.

Likewise, immigration fromLatin America and chit Caribbeanhas climbed from 90,000 per yearin 1965 to over 250,001) today.African immigration has re-mained low, but may increase inthe years ahead.

6

With popubiion stabilizationand eonoini prosperity in West-ern Europe, immigration fromthat region has slowly decilitre!.Today, for example, I laiti sendsmore legal immigrants to theUnited States than Ireland andItaly combined, and Mexico sendsmore legal immigrants than all ofWestern Eumpe. If illegal immi-gration from Haiti and Mexico isincluded, these numbers maymore than double.

Contrast in Sources of LegalImmigrant Admissions to the

United States for1900-1910 and 1980-1990

Atm Mori aot --ta

A.4.1 I%thin- 1`4

1900-3910

1980-1990

Sangre: INS Symbol' Yea:boats. I $611417 pad imagrestwaJD At 11 S., the 'Vitalised alar7, Papsdatioa Rd-clewrMacau, 19146

Ttdanind Note; Antrtica ha lucks 5 ruitu and1114 Cm ..n.

Change in Numbers of Legal Immigrantsto the United States by Sending Region, 1955-1994

1955- 19C6- 1975- 1985-1w 1974 194 1994

Asia

2

1.5

0.5

r-^

1955, 1965- 1975- 198%-1964 1974 1984 p194

&turret / 9/17 Sitennecti Festiva** sf Ow Isnot nation mai Natt,tdizanne SrmurTerlanind Nein 1%411-1994 data lart4et tEt1 on bash of 1987 atimistaton anti t intent law.

14

Maims

2.5

2

1. 5

0.5

1964

ft

Miflions

21.1

2

1.5

0.5

0

Latin America (includps Caribbean)

1955- 1965-1974

1975-19M

1985-1994

195r,1964

196%-'974

1975-1984

198%-'994

I 57

Current and Future Migrant Streams

Just as the major source coun-tries of immigration have changeddramatically in the list 30 years,they may change again in thefuture. Around the world millionsof people are increasingly on themove. The numbers coining tothe United States will dependboth on U.S. policy and on devel-opments abroad which arc largelyoutside U.S. control. For example:

1111 In parts of Central America,war, continued civil strife, hyper-inflation, and chronic unemphiy-anent, all aggravated by contin-ued population pressures, arelikely to increase legal and illegalimmigration to the United States.

The recent amnesty programfor illegal aliens is expected toresult in a significant increase inlegal immigration from Mexicoand Central America as large

8

numbers of family members,hungry for better jobs, becomeeligible to join newly legalizedrelatives.

In Europe, the relaxation ofemigration restrictions by theSoviet Union and other WarsawPact nations is likely to increaseimmigration from that region.In IN 1989, the Soviet Union willbe the one of the largest set *lerof legal immigrants and refugeesto the United States.

I In Asia, immigration from thePeople's Republic of China isexpected to in. rease significantlyas new entrants take advantage ofthe family reunification provisionsof current immigration law andreltigee status is expanded.

For Africa, fbreign studentswho adjusted to ilrmanent immi-grant status in the 1970s and1980s can 1w expected to petitionfor the admissilm of their familymembers. Nigeria in particular,with one-fifth of Africa's expand-ing population, may become amajor immigrant sending countryin coining decades.

All told, legal immigration,which averaged 600,0(M) per yearin the 1980s, may regularly up 1million per year in the 1990s. Ap-proximately 90 percent of theseiimnigrants will come 11,in thedeveloping world.

7

International Migration Patterns to the United States

NIL

Sourer: IRV Vattittoill Erathrwei 4lh hiturittnos and Naitiathtadmos .11/7111,

1.6

Population doubling tittle% tA 35 years or less.

9

The Rise of Illegal Immigration to the United States

Prior to 1965, illegal immigrationto the United States rose and HIprimarily in response to conditionsin Mexico. During both the 1930sand 1950s illegal immigration wascurbed by periodic mass deporta-tions of aliens.

Illegal immigration in recentdecades, however, is ofa differentmagnitude. Between 1965 and1987, the number of illegal aliensapprehended by the Border Patrolclimbed from 110,000 per year toover 1.7 million an increase of1,400 percent at a time whin en-forcement capabilities, as measuredby Border Patrol personnel, in-creased just 100 percent.

During this same periotl, thenumber of temporary admissions tothe United States (e.g., tourists andforeign stIldents) increased from 2million to 12 million. Though the

10

20

vast majority of these nonimmi-grants eventually return home, anestimated 50,000 to 100,000 per-sons per year do not.

In 1986 Congress passed theImmigration Reform and ControlAct which legalized the status of anestimated 2 million undocu-mented aliens and made it illegalfor employers to knowingly hireanyone who was in the UnitedStates illegally.

As a consequence of the em-ployer sanctions and amnestyprovisions of the new immigrationlaw, the number of illegal immi-grants apprehended by the U.S.Immigration and NaturalizationService dropped from 1.7 millionin FY 1986 to 900,000 in FY 1989.

Many observers believe, however,that this recent pattern will nothold in view of the demographicand economic prs.sures stillbuilding in much of the develop-ing world.

TIttanands

20(K)

1500

1000

500

01965

Illegal Alien Apprehensions 1965-1989

19141;

Rtairtis CAnili4)1A4

1973 1981 I9139

Suwon /91Y7 Unbind Emden& Ow Immigration and Nanadannon tin to andINS Si:460k* Oak r

24.

Personnel Level of the U.S. Immigration andNaturalization Service, 1965-1989

St)

60

10

20

I)19IZ 1967 1901 1971 197:4 1975 1977 1979 1SV41 198.1 1911.5 19K7 19119

Sources &alio ()trier ut 1hr U.S. immigration :mil Natutalitation Srivur

11

Characteristics of theTop Immigrant Sending Countries

Over 30 percent of all legal immi-grants to the United States cur-rently come from 15 countries. Allbut one Of these sending countries(the exception is Great Britain) areThird World nations with relativelyhigh fertility and low incomes.

More than was true of earlierperiods of immigration, the eco-nomic gap between the UnitedStates and most of the currentsending countries is large and',rowing. For example, India, thesixth largest immigrant sendingcountry, has a per capita income of001v $30() annually as compared tothe U.S. level of over $18,000. Mostimmigrants from India are welleducated professionals. But the gapin economic opportunity betweenthe two countries is basic to thepush and pull factors that generatethe Indian migrant stream.

Seven out of the 15 major Muni-

12

grant sending countries currentlyhave average fmnily sums at leastdouble the U.S. two child family av-erage. Population doubling timesat current birth and death ratesrange from almost 30() years in

Great Britain to just 20 in Iran.Population growth, if left un-

checked, will expand the pool ofmigrants in most immigrant send-ing countries and will help keepp capita income low.

Demograpadc and Rennoode Indicators for 15 Countries Papresendsig 30 Percent of tld. ration

1111111

Costner Total renllity PIMtebildanli/Gowpir)

MalmoPhilippines 4.7Korea, South 2.1Cuba 1.7Vietnam 4.4India 4,3Dominican Rep. 3.9China 2.4Jamaica 3.1IranUnited Kingdom 3.8Cambodia 4.6Wigan 1.7Hald 4.9Colombia 3.4

IIlititril Stairs

PopulationOfinsabni TimeMow

0199 Population lagPn Cop GNP $

I loin lintstiroosaU. from

Samos.SCattney--.-ISM

87.0 1,820 66,53365.0 590 52,55843.0 2,370 35,77630.5 N/A 33,11467.0 N/A 29,993

840.0 300 26,2277.0 730 26,175

1,115.0 300 25,1062.6 880 19,595

54.0 N/A 16,50557.3 10,430 13,6576.8 N/A 13,501

20.1 3,571 13,4246.4 360 12,666

32.0 1$20 11,408

251) 114.430

&worm Population RcIrt rot t lisurats. Altirio Attu SAM ans1 Itnithp-xitan :mil Pinto olitaiion Srivicr

Per Capita GNP of Major Immigrant Sending Nations and the U.S :, 1989

!tubachinafluid

PhilippinesDominican Rep

JamaicaColumbia

MexicoSouth Korea

tinned KingdomUnit .1 States

Source. !atta 14isM Bash Attars

5 JO

Prt Cainta GNP (in thusaints of 11.S. dollar%)

15

Total Fertility Rate of Major Immigrant Sending Nations and the U.S., 1989

India

HaitiPhilippines

Ibmiitin an Rep.Jamaica

ColumbiaWilco

South KamaKingdom

t /nitral &Ars

_T.INIIIEN=AERNM

LAWM111101

2 3

Total Fertility Mawr-A/et-age Miming. (libltu per Fatuity

Source; I VtI9 Dein Simi thr Pstantelim &imam litmus

2C

13

The Pace of World Population Growth

Population growth in thoseEuropean countries which oncesent large numbers of immigrantsto the United States has abatedjust as it has in North America.But the populations ofmost of to-day's immigrant sending coun-tries are still growing steadily,some of them at historically un-precede lied rates.

Within the next 30 years, the top15 source countries of legal i111111i-

graion to the United States aretogether projected to add 1.2billion people to their popula-tions a sum nearly as large asthe world's population at the timethe Statue of Liberty was dedi-cated in 1886. Morever, additionalcountries with populatism pres-sures are likely to add to the

14

migrant streams now coining fromAsia, Latin America and Africa.Consider the pace of r,.:gionalpopulation growth:

In 1960 North America'spopulation was almost exactlyequal to the combined popula-tions of Central and South Amer-ico and the Caribbean. By 2010,North America's population willbe half that of its southern neigh-bors.

Mexico, whos...! 1989 popula-tion WAS 86.7 million, is adding 2million people a year. The Carib-bean islands are adding another500,000 people a year to theregion.

Africa, hard pressed to feed apopulation of 620 million today, isprojected to have a population ofmore than 1.4 billion by 2020.

Asia, most of it alreadydensely populated with three bil-lion people, will see its populationdouble in the. next 40 years unlessbirth rates decline.

25

Comparison of Population Size inNorth America and Central and South America,

1950-2010

1950

1970

1990

2010

.1 atln America

North America

0 100 200 300 400 MX)

Population (Millions)Source: United Natintn. Driteguittlat Isedzottews t ColosinnTed:Wad Note: Crustal AM South Anon ira int links Caribbean.

600 700

Population Growth of theTop Immigrant Sending Countries to the

United States as Compared to the U.S.

tlullitstts

a(

3

2

0

1950 19110 1970 1980 11$J0 2000 2010 2020Years

Source: United Nations. Ainegraphk hailiosion CoostrrisTeam leaf Nom Population ruiresion bused on U.N. medium variant ninthassumes rapid spread of family pt.:sitting 1st dt-t, ektping countries.

31 15

Age Structure's Influence on Migration

The United States has not yetexperienced the full impact of thesurge in population growth thathas occurred in recent decades.Because most people do notmigrate until their early 20s,current immigration pressuresmay be only the edge of thewedge.

Within the next thirty years, thepopulation aged 15-35 in thedeveloping world, not includingChina, is projected to increase 70percent from 1 billion to 1.7billion greatly increasingpressures on U.S. borders.

In the coming two decades,1.86 billion people in developingcountries (1-19 year olds alreadyborn) will enter their twenties.Thirty years ago this age cohortequaled just 1 billion people.Thirty years from now it will be

16

2.3 billion unless birth rates startdropping rapidly soon.

Nearly half the population ofthe developing world is under age18. Between now and the year2000, these young people will lookfor jobs and housing, marry andhave children. Some of those dis-satisfied with the economic orpolitical conditions of their homecountries will "vote with theirfeet" and emigrate.

The young age structure ofmany developing countries is insharp contrast to the aging popu-lation of many industrializednations. In the middle are coun-tries like Korea and Thailandwhere declines in birthrates Iii the1960s and 1970s have put thesenations on the road to demo-graphic stability and helped bringeconomic prosperity.

32

110*

75-79711-74

65410605455-59505445-49404435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Characteristic Age Structure forCountries With Continuing Rapid Pops WW1) Growth

MISE1100111111MINILVaitaill111110M1111011111101111111011RIMINISBIM11111

BINIIIIIMINIMINEN11111111111111

Mot

75-79

135 8?./

696455-5950544549404435-393034242920.2415-1910 14

590-4

Met age Fans* Ste MS Mgt* tke. retyerted purdentan do +q1 tinter 24

Characteristic Age Structure forCountries with Dramatic Fertility Declitws Beginning in the 1960s

teas75-79 KOREA74604i4 Able*545951/5445.49404435.9990-94

t5-2920-2415-19

10-14

0-410% VS hS

Frithdrs

4S el 4$4

75.797974654060&$55-59505445-49404435-3930-34

25-2920.24151919 14

5-90-4

Met tree Fasuity SAM (T I6 19198). 21. Projected port/atm douldwg owe

Sumac United Katona. Oraegrodbt Indenters eiCeinenn

I or 11

yrots

Characteristic Age Structure forCountries with Modest and Recent Fertility Decline

1110!

757970,746549606455-M1

505445-49404435-39303425-29202415-1910145-99-4

MEXICO

1.

&Irk-%

I

Friu,sles

It **4 ti5 4% V% 0 2% 45

$0,75-7970-74

655969645559505445-49404435- 39

30-34

252920-2415-1919 14

re 9

0-1

Minas*. Vass* Sot nt. 3.n. Pi nen ted ppiaLintan dunning' mar. 29 preta

Characteristic Age Structure forCountries with Dramatic Fertility Declines Beginning in the 1940s

80t75-7970-74

555694455-5950-54

45-4940443.5-39

334252921124

15 1910-14

041644 45 es 141

140t

75-7970-7416-6960414

555950-5445-4940-4435-39343422' 29

21/-29

15.191(114

5-90-1

$5 itA,

Avetain. r.utitly Sur I 1 IR. 1901) 1.7. Peeyn h,i tettlisLitti in &tabling unit. 141 yr.tis

17

World Labor Force Growth

Between 1990 and 2010, thedeveloping world is projected toadd over 700 million people to itslabor force a population largerthan he entire labor force of theindustrialized world in 1990.

In the next 30 years, the com-bined labor force of CentralAmerica, Mexico and the Carib-bean is projected to swell by 52million new workers twice aslarge as the current labor fin-cc ofMexico.

During the same period, 323million new people will beginlooking for work in Africa awave of new workers large thanthe current labor force of Europe.

In order to provide adequatelevels of employment over thenext thirty years, developingcountries will have to achievephenomenal rates of economic

18

growth. Some developing coun-tries clearly can do so, but, formany, sustained high rates ofeccmotnic growth may provedifficult given recent past experi-ence.

In Nicaragua, El Salvador,Guatemala, and Jamaica, the percapita gross national product hasdeclined on average for the last 15years. In Nigeria, with one-fifth ofAfrica's population, the per capitagross national product has de-clined at an average rate of 2.6percent per year for the last 15years. For some developing coun-tries, the gap between labor forcegrowth and job creation maygrow even wider in the yearsahead.

Almost certainly, the economicgap between these countries antithe United States will grow, add-ing to the economic push-pullfactors behind international mi-gration.

Workl

Asia

Africa

Latin America &Caribbian

Europe

North America

Estimated and ProjectedLabor Force Growth, by Region, 1960-2020

Y'

0*fr -i44*

0.5

2020

it IWO1960

immommoso

1 1.5 2

Billions

Suture: IntrImuuattal 1.4tutts iMrrcr, rtsopowsually Attire it, .late 11E50202S, 14016

37

9 ri 3 3.5 4

19

Labor Force Growth vs, Job CreationA Case Study of Mexico

According to noted Mexicaneconomist Victor !liquid', ap-proximately half of Mexico's laborforce is currently unemployed orunderemployed. For this numbernot to increase, Mexico will haveto create at !cast 900,1.100 jobs ayear in the 1990s just to absorbnew labor force entrants.

li employment in Mexico glowsat 2 percent year (the U.S. av-erage), unemployment in Mexicowould increase from 6 million to16.5 million between now and theyear 2020.

To reduce the absolute numberof mwmployeti Mexico will haveto achieve cation rate of atleast 3 pert .. per year over thenext 30 years.

In the forty years from 1948 to1987, U.S. job growth readied or

20

exceeded 3 peicent pet year inonly six yars. While j.,o ri cationin Mexico often reached 3percent annually lxtwren 1965and WHO, this growth rate waslargely fueled by oil revenues.

The World 'lank reports thatsince the fall 4 oil prices in1982, Mexico's oss NationalProduct in dollar terms hasshrunk by more than one-third,and job creation has been virtu-ally stagnant.

3a

Millions

'10

10

0

Labor Force Growth vs. Job Creationin Mexico, 1990 and 2020

1990 2020

SPAM% inirmational Labour (Mfise, Enmity/ma:10 Rant, Ptfutiatims 19WA2023, 1986

40

2020 2020

41 21

Rapid UrbanizationFurther Spur to Immigration

Relatively few legal immigrantsto the United States currently mi-grate directly from rural commu-nities. Most migration is step-wise(and often intergenerational).People first move from farm tocity, and later from city to foreigncountry. The fact that majorThird World cities are growing 70percent faster than Third Worldpopulations is thus an importantfactor in the expansion of poten-tial migrant pools.

Urbanization in the developingworld brings increasing numbersof people into contact with for-eign television, magazines, andmovies which often depict pros-perous life styles, political free-doms, and economic opportuni-ties in western industrializedcountries. U.S. culture oftendominates these media. As the ex-

22

pectations of urban youth rise,and local realities fail to matchthem, more at ,-.I more young menand women will consider immi-grating to a fG.teign country.

Urban residents also find them-selves in the immediate orbit offoreign consulates, internationalairports, labor recruiters andexperts who know about interna-tional travel documents, amongthem alien smugglers.

The population of Third Worldcities, which was 966 million in1 980, is projected to top 2.6billion by the year 2010. By theturn of the century, there will be17 cities in the developing worldwith populations of 10 million ormore, as compared with just 6 inthe devrloped world.

42

Caribbean/Central America

SouthAnterica

Africa

East Asia

Smith Asia

Mink ms

25

20

15

10

5

0

Urbanization, By Region, 1950-2010

1

LegendIII 20 0

IIII 1990

In 1970

El 1950

0 200 400Sourer; World Resources bodislic, tt at rwarrra 1958-tivNow Fig uses log Fast Asia do not include

000%Mims

1400 1000

Growth of Large Cities in the Developing World, 1970-2000

.0'-1200

1111III lig LP.11°-1

11IV I

Mexico Sao PauloCity (Brazil)

Swarm tin:11M Nadeau, hinpmt I Wadi frhartisertion, 1987

43

Calcutta(India)

Sliattghai(China)

Teheran(Iran)

Jakarta(Intionesta)

44

New Immigrants to the U.S.Where They Settle, How They are Doing

More than sixty percent of allnew immigrants to the UnitedStates live in just five statesCalifornia, New York, Texas,Florida and Illinois.

Approximately 40 percent of allimmigrants to the United Statesreside in greater Los Angeles andNew York City. An additional 20percent of the U.S. foreign-bornpopulation lives in greater SanFrancisco, Chicago, Miami, I ions-ton and Washington, D.C.

Because many recent immi-grants are poorly educated orhave limited English-speakingabilities or both, they tend to ini-tially take low-paying jobs andhave a disproportionate impacton low-income housing and jobmarkets in areas in which they

24

congrrgate. This is especially trueof immigrants from Mexico,Central America and the Carib-bean, but also applies to immi-grants from some Asian countries.

In general, the majority ofcurrent immigrants compete forhousing and employment withAmericans who share similareducational, income, and labormarket characteristics specifi-cally Americans on the bottom ofthe U.S. economic ladder.

Settlement Pattern of Recent Legal and Illegal Comparison of 1980 Mean Full-Time IncomeImmigrants in the United States for Immigrant and U.S. Born Male Workers

t alilc, nla'Ka

.FZ,' 4 rt ' Z.

4`" 4 to.

**t ..

.7,

Masto Hawaii New MAL2% 15%

111inoix

4%New

4%Florkb

8%

Smarm t I S. Inurtigsatissn anti Natissatiration Semite. howtoatiti Adsetturd by Stateofhrbrotisi lirsidnur awl I'mrowsurd illislation Abatis/at. 1989

Texas9%

16.

India

11.S. Ixnn-white

Mira

Phibppinex

Vico sant

U3 1xnu-black

Cuba

Mexico

Doininian Rep.

Santret 11011 I I.A.

Tunvands of Milani15

25

The Mismatch Between New U.S. Jobsand Immigrant Workers

The combination of a largeinflux of low-skilled immigrantworkers and projected shifts inthe industrial and occupationalstructure of the U.S. economymay further depress wages andworking conditions in the low-wage job market.

Minority populations are cur -rently overrepresented among oc-cupations that are likely to suffermoderate to high job losses dur-ing the 1990s. These employmentsectors include farm workers,garment workers and privatehousehold chila care workers.These are the industries wherelarge numbers of U.S. minoritiesand new immigrants are nowworking and can be expected towork in the 1990s.

In contrast, the rapidly expand-ing technical and communicationfields often require advanced

2648

training alxwe the skill levels ofmany immigrants, nearly half ofwhom have no more than a highschool education.

Immigrants who come fromcountries with low wages and poorworking conditions are, moreover,willing to work for less money andlive and work under worse condi-tions than American workers. As aconsequence, immigrant workershave become "employees ofchoice" in some low-wage indus-tries. With a surplus ofworkersand a shortage of job openings,wages and benefits are furtherdepressed in declining industries.lArw-incinne American workers

are often displaced at a cost toU.S. taxpayers in associated unem-ployment and welfare benefits.

Based on calculations by the INSand Department of Labor, legaland illegal immigration may costU.S. taxpayers in excess of $500million a year.

Technical Noir: Fin tustiu it.sifilig see 11.ti;ow, al As I t Aria r. lllegul .144-Ats hiflarrut

11+101 ilukrii ws Wagn and Wirlbmg tiatulditrus'WHAT"), 31,isth !WIN Awl Ilford Altrtn: borment &worthAwarlis Illpst :Virgo* May thIptair Mostims, AppelPIStk

Home Child care

Garment Employees

Kam Workers

Electronic Assembly

High School Teachers

Fast Food Workers

Electrical Engineers

Accountants

Computer Analysts

Projected Changes in U.S. Job Market, 1986-2000

-60 -40 -20 0Perrent

20 Iu

Source: Eatimattrd by thr tl S Bateau Laiscoz %Anon., Nord on a 19019$6 Ou upaiiimul Employmnit Summit a Small

s

Go 80

Education and ImmigrationThe Case of California

More immigrants settle in Ca-fornia than any other state, andthis influx is having a seriousimpact on California schools,aggravating the budgetary squeezeprecipitated by property tax cutsmade in the early I980s.

Approximately 17 percent of allstudents in Califoni;a are foreign-born. Many of them attendschools which arc !Orthe special nerds of children withlimited English language skills. Inthe lower grades of many elemen-tary schools, more than half of allCalifornia students are English-language deficient. Educationalsetbacks in the early grades proba-bly contribute to the 50 percentdrop out rate for California'sforeign-born students.

28

If these trends continue, agrowing underclass of immigrantfamilies could jeopardize thestate's future prosperity.

Although the developing coun-tries from which immigrants comehave made enormous investmentsin education, shrinking financialresdnirces and rapid populationgrowth have actually causededucational standards to declinein many of these countries.

California Countieswith the Largest

Percentage of LimitedEnglish Proficiency

(LEP) StudentsImperial 32.6San Francisco 29.7San Benito 23.4Monterey 20.8Los Angeles 19.2San Joaquin 17.1Santa Crux 15.6Merced 14.2Orange 13.0Stanislaus 12.3

Sources ban* Olson, Craning sitSchwa*" asekr, 19611

Thousands

700

600

5130

400

300

100

Growth of Limited English Proficiency Studentsin California Schools, 1973-1991

1971 1975 1977 1979 1%41 1983 198 1989 1991Source: lidairit Cnming tAr .Glistrikmist hordrr. 19M#Technical Ni*te M89-90 louts pttletteti :nom print }r s.

29

Immigration Policy and U.S. Population Size

Because Americans have mylow birthrates, future levels ofimmigration will largely deter-mine whether the United Statesstabilizes its population soon orcontinues to grow late into thenext century.

Even with average family sizebelow 1.8 children and no netimmigration, the population ofthe United States would creep upslowly until about 2020.

With net legal and illegal immi-gration of one million per yearand current birthrates, U.S. popu-lation would top 320 million by2050 and continue to grow for therest of the 21st century. Manyimmigration experts consider thisa likely scenario.

30

Although Congress may at somepoint in the future chose to fur-ther restrict legal immigrationinto the United States, the contin-ued growth of population pres-sures abroad and the income gapbetween rich and poor countrieswould almost certainly make theenforcement of such restrictionsmore difficult.

56

MiUIQStr

450

350

250

150

50

0

U.S. Population Growthat Different Levels of Immigration, 2000-2050

Two million net immigrationOne million net immigration

El !4X),000 net immigration

O Zero net immigration

2000 2010 2020

Years

21140

Sonnet The hnattatt g1 Ininutnation of s C.S Population Site Iluistalation ilrfrrraLr bou-An. 1981Nom All pi ujes. duns assume U.S. tout tenuity tale of 1.8 chikbrn. PPijet lions Ward on 1980 US. population.

5 7

2091) 2050

R1 E31

U.S. Resources for Population Stabilization andThird World DevelopmentThe Unitee. States is currently

doing relath Of little to reducefuture immigration pressures onAmerica's borders. U.S. economicassistance to most developingcountries is paltry. The bulk ofU.S. foreign aid goes to a handfulof countries and is increasinglyweighted toward military aid andcash transfers to pay for militarybases or cooperation from keycountries.

Only 23 percent of foreign aid isallocated to poor countries forlong term social and economicdevelopment. Support for familyplanning is an even smaller anddeclining slice of the foreign aiddollar about 12 percent ofdevelopment aid and 1.7 percentof total aid.

Demand for immigration to theUnited States will only slacken if

32

economic and political conditionsin the immigrant-sending coun-tries offer local citizens morehope for a better life.

Continued high birth rates indeveloping countries contributeto U.S. immigration problems byexpanding the populations ofpoor immigrant sending coun-tries. Rapid population growth anthe developing world helps keepdeveloping countries poor andwidens the income gap betweenthe world's developed and devel-oping nations. Rapid rates ofpopulation growth also createeconomic and politi4al tensionsthat can contribute to civil strife

the kind of civil strife that hascreated record numbers of refit-gees over the last decade.

Americans need to make amuch greater investment inprograms to stabilize populationgrowth and promote developmentin those regions of the world fromwhich future immigration pres-sures are likely to (mut%

6J ti

U.S. Overseas Family Planning Assistance asCompared to Select 1988 Budget Items

Total Foreign Assistance

Military Aid to Egypt

1988 Budget of the Immigrationand Naturalization Service

Total U.S. Family PlanningAssistance to Developing

Nations

61

0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Billions of DrIllars

spume:11.S. Agene y tow Inirmammal Detctrignrrit, P.A. tirrnefre Leans and f :tants mut Assistant, pain Inirrnannnal ( hp:- isainmsam! INS ShIlitoi it Olik v

9 10 11 12 13 14

33

6

About PCC

The Population Crisis Committee;PCC) is a private non-profit or-ganization. PCC seeks to stimu-late public awareness, understand-ing and action towards the reduc-tion of population growth rates indeveloping countries throughvoluntary family planning andother actions needed to solveworld population problems.

PCC today under' tikes a varietyof activities; particularly, it:

Educates key U.S. leaders aboutthe urgency of internationalpopulation problems.Provides authoritative analysisof the impact and importanceof U.S. policies and financialsupport for international popu-lation assistance programs.

Through provision of informa-tion and direct meetings withthe highest government andprivate leaders in developingcountries, encourages at optionof more effective programs toreduce population growth.

311 Identifies and supports innova-tive, cost-effective and replicablefamily planning projects at thegrassroots level in developingcountries witl. the most seriouspopulation problems.

Works through the U.S. mediaand other organizations to en-hance public understanding ofthe importance of the world

population problem and of U.S.issistane to population pro-grams in developing countries.

I Prepares studies and reports oncritical population issues and dis-tributes them to some 65,000policymakers and opinion lead-ers worldwide.

64 35