fuel cycle simulation as€¦ · consortium for verification technology workshop: oct 15-16. 2015...
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Fuel Cycle Simulation as a Virtual CVT Testbed
Paul Wilson, Meghan McGarryU. Wisconsin-MadisonCVT Annual MeetingOctober 15-16, 2015
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
FY15 Status Update
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● Focus on proof-of-principle● Toy problems to demonstrate underlying capability● Basis for expanding collaborations across CVT● Three primary examples
○ Behavior modeling for undeclared activities○ Simulated signal time series for anomaly detection○ Spatiotemporal metrics for fuel cycle monitoring
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Facility Behavior Models for Material Diversion
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EnrichmentFacility
Light Water Reactor Fleet
Undeclared Consumer
LEU
Natural U
● Demonstration with enrichment facility○ Willing to supply HEU when requested○ Operating near technical capacity○ Disrupts flow of LEU
Natural Uranium Source
HEU
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Facility Behavior Models for Material Diversion
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● Light water reactor fleet requests randomly fluctuating, Normally distributed quantities
● Varying request behaviors for HEU consumer
● Assume supplied LEU throughput is declared signal
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Simulated Data Streams for Anomaly Detection● Simple approaches are possible for signal processing
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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Spatiotemporal Models for Fuel Cycle Monitoring
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● Some signals are detected in environment at a distance○ Effluents & emissions○ Transportation patterns
● Superposition of signals from different sources● Requires
○ Location of facilities in space○ Model for signal propagation○ Method to superpose signals from multiple facilities
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Spatiotemporal Models for Fuel Cycle Monitoring
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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Spatiotemporal Models for Fuel Cycle Monitoring
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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
FY16 - Improved Facility Modeling
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● Develop more complex models of agent behavior○ Review historical record○ Mechanisms for responding to external stimuli to
behavior■ Inspections■ Detection
● Compare multi-mode signals and signatures from multi-national facilities with those from national facilities
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
FY16 - Integrating Across Thrusts
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Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
FY16 - Integrating Across Thrusts
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● Thrust 1: (Glaser) - Nuclear Archeology - FMCT○ Reduce uncertainty in fissile material inventories from
(newly) released facility operation histories● Thrust 2: (Hero) - Data Analysis Techniques
○ Add range of “signals” from facility operation○ Generate coordinated time series of mixed mode signals
● Thrust 3: (???) - Virtual testing of safeguards○ Provide realistic source spectra from facility processes in
transition● Thrust 6:
○ Develop simulations for use in courses
Consortium for Verification Technology Workshop: Oct 15-16. 2015
Acknowledgements
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● This work was supported, in part, by the Consortium for Verification Technology under the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration award number DE-NA0002534.
● The Cyclus project also benefits from support from the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy via the NEUP program.
● The Cyclus project has also benefited from student fellowships from the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy (NEUP), and Department of Homeland Security, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
● The Cyclus project is a multi-institution open source collaboration that includes contributions from many individuals supported by these and other organizations
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