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TRANSCRIPT
Thursday 5th February, 2015
6.30pm
Fundamental Analysis Department
Consumer Industry on U.S. Luxury Goods
Content
• Introduction
• Porter’s 5 forces
• Industry drivers
• Current industry outlook
• Introduction of Ross Store
• Valuation of Ross Store
Introduction for luxury good
• Goods that are not a necessity but are highly-desired within a culture or society
• Demand for these products is fuelled by desires rather than needs
• Evoke certain perceptions of reaching the upper echelons of society
Examples of luxuries
Porter’s Five Forces Threat of New
Entrants
Bargaining Power of
Buyers
Threat of Substitutes
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Competition within
Industry
Threats of New Entrants: Low
• Engine that drives the sale of luxury goods is its brand
• People go for brands that have reputable statuses
• Difficulty in penetrating into the highly saturated luxury goods market
• Large companies enjoy economies of scale
Bargaining Power of Buyers: Low
• Depends on the brand
• Lowering the price significantly may actually signal a drop in quality or old designs
Threats of Substitutes: Low
• Switching costs to consumers
• Virtually no substitutes for luxury goods as each brand is unique and cannot be replaced with another brand
Bargaining power of suppliers: Moderate
• Relationship with the suppliers is very important
• Increased risk of switching to a lower quality supplier
• Luxury companies are huge conglomerates
Overview of the industry drivers
• Income level
• Market segmentation
• Embracing E-commerce
Income level
Market segmentation
Casual Fashionable Classic
Benefits of E-commerce
• White collar workers often tied up with their work
• Low capital to set up
Recent Industry Outlook
Dip in Luxury Sector
Reason: • Federal Reserve hinted
delays in interest rate hikes • Investors think negatively
about US economic condition.
• Believe Luxury Goods will not do well
• Hence flight to safety
Recent Industry Outlook
But Fundamentals Remain Strong
The greater the amount of disposal income, the greater the number of people can afford luxury goods.
The greater the amount of consumer spending, the greater the likelihood luxury goods will be bought.
ROST: ROSS STORE (BUY) Target Price: USD 89.19 (+9.9%) as of 26 October 2014
Business Segments
One of the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chains in the U.S.
1194 Stores 144 Stores
Offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family and savings of 20% to 60% off department regular price.
Offers 20%-70% off moderate department and discount store regular price.
Brands Revenue Break-Down
Ross’Business Model
ROSS Few classification
but large selections within
each classification.
7900 vendors and manufacturers
network.
Direct purchase
No fringe benefits
Opportunistic buying
Competitive Advantage 1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%ofCOGSoversales 74.20% 72.80% 72.50% 72.10% 72%
%ofSGAoversales 15.70% 15.60% 15.20% 14.80% 14.90%
EBITMargin 10% 11.40% 12.20% 13% 13.10%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Percentage
Cost&Opera ngMargin• Decreasing Cost of
Goods Sold (COGS). • Increasing operating
profits.
The Driving Forces:
1. Better procurements of goods.
2. Lower Sales, general & administrative cost resulting from centralized merchandising, marketing and purchasing.
3. Lower operating cost due to • Workers are non-unionised.
• 48900/66300 (74%) of labour are part timers no full time benefits.
• Customer self-service.
Competitive Advantage 1
Towards more Economies of Scale & Increasing Market Shares
0
50
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net increase in store
0
500
1000
1500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
No of stores
0%
5%
10%
1 2 3 4 5
Comparable store sales increases (52 weeks)
$250
$300
$350
$400
1 2 3 4 5
Sales per average square foot of selling
space (52 weeks)
Competitive Advantage 2
Competitive
Advantage 2
Towards more Economics of Scale & Increasing market shares
the increase
Valuation
Steps in Valuation
1. Choose a method (FTE, WACC)
2. Forecast Revenue Growth
3. Forecast Margins – Income Statement
4. Forecast Turnovers – Balance Sheet
5. Build Pro-forma Statements
6. Determine Discount Rate
7. Discount CF – Intrinsic Value
1. Model: Flow-to-Equity (FTE or FCFE)
NI – Net Capex – Change in NOWC + Net change in Debt
Capex – Depreciation
End Net PPE – Beg Net PPE
1. Model: Flow-to-Equity (FTE or FCFE)
NI – Net Capex – Change in NOWC + Net change in Debt
Ending NOWC – Beg NOWC
1. Model: Flow-to-Equity (FTE or FCFE)
NI – Net Capex – Change in NOWC + Net change in Debt
New Debt Issued – Debt Repaid
2. Forecast Revenue Growth
Macroeconomic Conditions
Industry Specific Metrics
• Median income growth • Consumption trends • GDP growth
• Store count growth • Sales per square foot • Same store sale
Revenue Forecast (2 stage)
Sales Growth (2015) 10.1%
Long-term (10 years) 2%
Tapering Linear / Exponential / S-curve
3+4. Forecast Margins & Turnovers
Assumptions
• Profit margins worsened slightly due to increasing competition from online retailers – Proportion of cost increased with respect to revenue
• Asset turnover in line with long-term average
• Special case: US$250m note issue in 2014
5. Build Pro-forma Statements
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Bill
ion
s
Pro-forma Balance Sheet Total Liabilities Total Common Equity Debt Ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Bill
ion
s
Pro-forma Income Statement Sales (Net), LHS Net Income (available to common), LHS Sales Growth, RHS
6. Determine Discount Rate
• Cost of Equity (CAPM) = 8.54% – Risk-free Rate: 2.3%
• 10-Y Treasury (Sept 2014)
– Market Risk Premium: 6%
– Beta: 1.04 • Obtain peer group’s equity beta
• Derive unlevered beta
• Re-lever at firm’s target debt level
6. Discount Cash Flow
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Mill
ion
s
Free Cash Flow to Common Equity
Current Price $80.27
1 Year Target Price $89.19
Upside Potential 11.1%
Cost of Equity
9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5%
Te
rmin
al G
row
th R
ate
1.0% 73.92 78.66 83.59 90.23 97.38
1.5% 75.72 80.83 86.18 93.44 101.35
2.0% 77.77 83.31 89.19 97.19 106.05
2.5% 80.11 86.17 92.64 101.63 111.69
3.0% 82.81 89.51 96.74 106.94 118.58