Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Future of Auto Industry and Retail

One word will dominate ALL

FUTURE

The future is aboutEMOTION

8

300 million move to cities in China 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030

Numberofvehiclesper100people

Global car sales 107m by 2020

up from 80m in 2013

Europe / Japan - flatAmerica - recovered

China - 19m to 31m in 7 years - mainly foreign brands

44mesasmanycarsonearthifwholeworldhassameownershipasAmerica

NOX emissions

Global Manufacturing

SCALETata Group owns Jaguar in UK

Russia will be largest car maker in Europe New factories in Turkey, Indonesia, Africa, Brazil

VW mega platformVWMegaPlaAorm-basisfor1mcars

• Body Level One

• Body Level Two

• Body Level Three

• Body Level Four

• Body Level Five

Longer and shorter global supply chains

NearshoringBoom

Lighter vehicles

New Range Rovers are 40% lighter Plastics

Carbon fibreLess steel

NanotechCoa4ngs

Laser Headlights500 metres distance - Audi, BMW

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External Air Bags

Volvo in V40 hatchback , Mercedes Benz, TRW

>30%energysavingswithgreentech

Auto Fuel of the Future ?

�30 million acres lost

�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food

25% of 2010 US grain à fuel30% US grain burnt in cars

LPG-hugegrowthinIndia

Hydrogen

GimmickorReality

Problemswithsupply,storage,milesperkgofgas

FutureofHybridCars

Whypayfortwoengines?

GMVolt-BaQeryLife

AveragedriverusesbaQery82%of4meevenwithrangeofonly38miles

Electric car sales off-target

Germany: “1 million by 2020”Nissan Leaf: selling 20,000 a year, but

factory capacity for 150,000 a year

>20,000 a year - out of $42m factory

How green are electric cars ?

France: 8g CO2 / km (mainly nuclear)

India: >120g C02 / km (mainly coal)

Future: 0g CO2 / km (focussed light)

Solar Power

Park under light focussed - Ford

BodyDesignOp4onsVeryLimitedinFuture

Everywindtunneldoesthesame

Cardesignlimitedbyhumananatomy

LimitstoCockpitDesign

Auto ParkingFord, Audi, Volvo, Honda

Predict Driver Mood

Car learns about the daily schools run - route, usual radio station, cabin temperature - and so checks the route, traffic each day Mercedes

Switch hybrid to battery only when usual journey close to home Ford

Drowsy, Drunk, DistractedAlcohol in sweat on gear leaver / erratic driving Nissan

LED detection of closed eyes University of LeicesterHead not facing road Audi

Detection heart problem (ECG from steering wheel) Nippon Medical School

Boominconnectedcarsales

GM 4G

AllnewGMcarsinUS/Candawith4G

Vehicletrainssave30%offuel

Networked-Joinedtogether

Vehicle to Vehicle Data National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

requirement for vehicle to vehicle communication by ? 2017 to prevent accidents

- warnings, automatic braking etc

Carswithnodrivers

Over700,000kmsdriven

legalliabilityinaccidents?

Who owns the driver ?

Manufacturers - telcos - breakdown companies - dealer network -

independent garages - leasing company - software provider - insurer

FutureofAutoDealersManufacturerswillfightforcontrol

ExpectnewpaQernsofcarownership

Milesdrivenby20-30yearoldsdown8%in20yearsacrossAmerica(30%downin10yearsinUK)

Rentbyhour-instantly

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Whatdoesitallmeanforautosales?

Carsaleswillgrowfastonline/mobileApps

Would recommend you to a friend ?

lifetime value of new customer

Big Data = PatternLittle Data = Person

Little Data often matters

most

“missing you”

Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink, chat, party, unwind,

dark, quiet, sleep, leave

Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Future of Auto Industry is all about customer

experience, insight, choice relationship, speed and price -in an increasingly mobile world