Future development scenarios for decision making: The Smithsonian Working Landscape Simulator

Ana Maria Sanchez Cuervo, Hadrien Vanthomme, Francisco Dallmeier

Smithsonian Institution

Madre de Dios - PeruAmarakaeri Communal Reserve

Madre de Dios - PeruAmarakaeri Communal Reserve

Madre de Dios - PeruAmarakaeri Communal Reserve

Amarakaeri Communal Reserve

Component 1: Quantification and Monitoring of Impacts a) 11 biodiversity and impact quantification protocolsb) Best practices and recommendations for impact mitigation

Madre de Dios

Component 2: Landscape conservation and development a) Future development impacts under different development scenarios

Madre de Dios

Component 2: Landscape conservation and development a) Future development impacts under different development scenarios

• Anticipate impacts

• Provide proactive recommendations

• Multiple ecosystems at the regional scale

Total potential impact to

biodiversity

Residual impact

Avoid

Minimize

Residual impact

Residual impact

Restore

Offset

No net loss

Maximum impact

Most effective Least effective

Less expensive More expensive

Madre de Dios: Tropical Andes hotspot and Vilcabamba-Amboro Corridor

Interoceanic highway

>2500 km in Peru

Brazil Peru

Amazon, Andes & coast

Madre de Dios and Vilcabamba-Amboro Corridor

Madre de Dios

Component 2: Landscape conservation and development

Madre de Dios

Component 2: Landscape conservation and development

Key area to avoid and minimize habitat and connectivity loss, accelerated by the inter-oceanic Highway

Proactive mitigation planning approach

Madre de Dios and Vilcabamba-Amboro Corridor

The Smithsonian Working Landscape Simulator

Smithsonian Landscape Simulator

Needing

a Vision

Ecosystem

Services

Possible

Scenarios

Data and

Landscape Changes

Landscape

Models

Scenarios

Simulation

Quantitative

Indicators of Success

Disseminate

Results

Decision

Making

Participatory scenarioplanning

26 groups participated with representatives of government and civil society

Ecosystem

Services

Possible

Scenarios

Ecosystem Services

Participatory scenarioplanning

26 groups participated with representatives of government and civil society

Ecosystem

Services

Possible

Scenarios

Landscape change

1993

Agricultural expansion

Data and

Landscape Changes

2003

Agricultural expansion

Construction of secondary roads

Development of Huepetuhemining camp

Landscape change

2013

Agricultural expansion

Construction of secondary roads

Development of Huepetuhe, Delta 1, and Guacamayo mining camps

Paving of interoceanic highway

Landscape change

Regional Scenarios Evaluated

Gold MiningExpansion

LandscapeConservation

Current Trends Land Planning

Territorial management planFew Regulations

Scenarios

Simulation

Same political, economic and social trends

Poor land management, immigration, and high prices of gold

All economic activitesimplemented within the zoning

Protected areas well protected, deforestation reduced and degraded lands restored

Scenarios

Simulation

EconomyHuman

wellbeingEnvironment

Sustainable Development

Forest cover

Biodiversity

Forest connectivity

Erosion

Carbon emissions

Road access

Mining

Agriculture

Logging

Brazil nut forest

Social conflicts

Unplanned urban sprawl

Mining towns

Mercury exposure

Agriculture pollution

Quantitative Indicators of

Success

Scenarios performance

Road access

Mining

Agriculture

Logging

Brazil nut forest

Social conflict avoidance

Fewer mining towns

Less mercury exposure

Less Agricultural pollution

Forest cover

Biodiversity

Forest connectivity

Reduced erosion

Reduced CO2

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

i

j

k

l

m

n

o

Reduced unplanned urban sprawl

Quantitative indicators

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

oa

b c de

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

Road access

Mining

Agriculture

Logging

Brazil nut forest

Social conflict avoidance

Fewer mining towns

Less mercury exposure

Less Agricultural pollution

Forest cover

Biodiversity

Forest connectivity

Reduced erosion

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

i

j

k

l

m

n

o

Reduced unplanned urban sprawl

Scenarios performance

Reduced CO2

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

oa

b c de

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

Road access

Mining

Agriculture

Logging

Brazil nut forest

Social conflict avoidance

Fewer mining towns

Less mercury exposure

Less Agricultural pollution

Forest cover

Biodiversity

Forest connectivity

Reduced erosion

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

i

j

k

l

m

n

o

Reduced unplanned urban sprawl

Scenarios performance

Reduced CO2

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

oa

b c de

f

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

Road access

Mining

Agriculture

Logging

Brazil nut forest

Social conflict avoidance

Fewer mining towns

Less mercury exposure

Less Agricultural pollution

Forest cover

Biodiversity

Forest connectivity

Reduced erosion

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

i

j

k

l

m

n

o

Reduced unplanned urban sprawl

Scenarios performance

g

Reduced CO2

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

oa

b c de

f

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

ab c d

e

f

g

hi

jkl

m

n

o

Road access

Mining

Agriculture

Logging

Brazil nut forest

Social conflict avoidance

Fewer mining towns

Less mercury exposure

Less Agricultural pollution

Forest cover

Biodiversity

Forest connectivity

Reduced erosion

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

i

j

k

l

m

n

o

Reduced unplanned urban sprawl

Scenarios performance

g

Reduced CO2

Disseminate

Results Recommendations and results

Decision

Making

Conclusions

1. The working Landscape Simulator accounts for long term, indirect and cumulative impacts

2. Different management options today will result in different consequences for people, nature, and economy in the future

3. Active land planning represents a strategy for sustainable development

Thanks!Questions?