future directions
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Future Directions. Future Studies Groups. Futurist One who studies the future The task of the futurist is to effectively distinguish among impending possibilities and make realistic forecasts Future criminology The study of likely futures as they impinge on crime and its control. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology TodayCriminology TodayAN INTEGRATIVE INTRODUCTIONAN INTEGRATIVE INTRODUCTION
EPILOGUE
SEVENTH EDITION
Future Directions
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Future Studies GroupsFuture Studies Groups
• Futurist One who studies the future The task of the futurist is to effectively
distinguish among impending possibilities and make realistic forecasts
• Future criminology The study of likely futures as they
impinge on crime and its control
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Future Studies GroupsFuture Studies Groups
• World Future Society• Society of Police Futurists International
(PFI)• Futures Working Group (PFI/FBI joint
venture)• Foresight program (in the UK)• Future Crimes Institute
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Techniques of Futures ResearchTechniques of Futures Research
• Futures research a multidisciplinary branch of operations
research whose principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on• Forecasting from the past supported by
mathematical models• Cross-disciplinary treatment of its subject
matter
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Techniques of Futures ResearchTechniques of Futures Research
• Futures research a multidisciplinary branch of operations
research whose principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on• Systematic use of expert judgment• A systems-analytical approach to its
problems
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Principles of the Futurist Principles of the Futurist PerspectivePerspective
• The future is determined by a combination of factors, including human choice
• There are alternative futures• We operate within an interdependent,
interrelated system
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Principles of the Futurist Principles of the Futurist PerspectivePerspective
• Tomorrow’s problems are developing today
• We should regularly develop possible responses to potential changes
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Techniques of Futures ResearchTechniques of Futures Research
• Trend extrapolation• Cross-impact analysis• The Delphi Method• Simulations and models• Environmental scanning• Scenario writing• Strategic assessment
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Future CrimesFuture Crimes
• By 2025, socially significant crime in the advanced nations will be increasingly economic and computer based
• The heads of 21st century criminal organizations will be educated, highly sophisticated, and computer literate
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Future CrimesFuture Crimes
• Identity manipulation will be a nexus of future criminality
• Criminal organizations will have their own satellites to coordinate drug trafficking and money laundering operations
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Future CrimesFuture Crimes
• Georgette Bennett predicts areas of coming change Decline in street crime Increase in white-collar and high-tech
crime Increase in crimes by women and the
elderly
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Future CrimesFuture Crimes
• Georgette Bennett predicts areas of coming change Shift in high crime rates from Frost Belt
to Sun Belt Safer cities, more crime in small towns
and rural areas
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
New CriminologiesNew Criminologies
• L. Edward Wells predicts that future explanations of crime will be: More eclectic More comparative Predominantly individualist and
voluntaristic More applied and pragmatic
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
New CriminologiesNew Criminologies
• L. Edward Wells predicts that future explanations of crime will be: More oriented toward explaining white-
collar crime More emphasis placed on biological
factors
• Risk factor prevention paradigm (Farrington)
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Crime-Control Policies of the Crime-Control Policies of the FutureFuture
• Key issues of concern: New criminal groups Language barriers Distrust by ethnic communities Greater reliance on community
involvement Regulating the marketplace Reducing public demand Increased treatment
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Can We Solve the Problem of Can We Solve the Problem of Crime?Crime?
• Criminology should be considered a metascience, superior to the criminal law rather than an auxiliary to it
• Criminologists today expect to work with politicians and policy makers in forging crime-control agendas based on scientific knowledge and criminological theorizing
continued on next slide
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.All Rights Reserved
Criminology Today, 7th EditionFrank Schmalleger
Can We Solve the Problem of Can We Solve the Problem of Crime?Crime?
• Implementation of effective policies may be difficult Cultural taboos Interest groups with diverse agendas Racial divisiveness Groups that see crime as an accepted
way of doing business and do not consider criminal activity stigmatizing