What will ‘Future Energy Security’ look

like for Puerto Rico in the face of Climate

Change?

Federico SotomayorDecember 6, 2013Climate Change, Energy, & Dvlpmt.

http://www.caribbeanbusinesspr.com/news03.php?nt_id=63293&ct_id=1

http://www.elboricua.com/BKPuertoRicoMap.html

Climate Change in the Caribbean

Increased vulnerability from Climate ChangeSea Level RiseTropical Storm intensity (changes in precipitation, air temperature,

and air pressure)Climate change will induce volatility of Oil market (↑ price)

“Due to the absence of local fossil fuel resources, transportation costs and the lack of economies of scale, these regions generally rely on imported petroleum for electricity generation (Shirley & Kammen).”

High Electricity Prices - 26¢/kWh (May 2012)Wind speeds ↑ magnitude from 2070-98 (Angeles, Gonzalez, Erickson III,

& Hernandez)

Net Surface Solar Radiation will ↓ from 2041-55 (Angeles, Gonzalez, Erickson III, & Hernandez)

“The Caribbean region is a chain of small islands that are vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change and high oil prices (Charles).”

Political Economy and Collaborative Efforts in Puerto Rico

Co-Production Model (Risk Perception) “In the co-production model of knowledge and policy there is recognition that both the

goals of policy and the means of securing those goals emerge out of joint scientific and non-scientific considerations (Hulme p.104).”

Cultural Circuits Model (Science Communication) “A cultural circuits conception maintains that both senders and receivers of information are

jointly engaged in shaping and changing the meaning of message about climate change. Science, ideology, and public audiences become entangled in the web of these cultural circuits (Hulme p.221-3).”

“Innovative alternative energy projects show themselves to be both profitable and significant sources of emissions reduction and job creation [in the Caribbean]

(Shirley & Kammen).”

Political Economy of Puerto Rico (cont’d)

Governor (Green Advocates) Luis Fortuno Alejandro Garcia Padilla

Law 22/273 Law 22: Law to Encourage the Transfer of Investors to Puerto Rico Law 273: International Financial Center Regulatory Act (broadens scope of banking activities)

GEF (Green Energy Fund) “Through the GEF, the government of Puerto Rico will co-invest up to $290M in the development

of renewable energy projects on the island. Starting 2011, $20M will be allocated to the GEF, gradually increasing up to $40M by 2020 - Jose Maeso (Kantrow).”

Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 2015-19: 12% , 2020-27: 15% , 2028-35: 20%

REC (Renewable Energy Credits) – Similar to ‘Cap and Trade’ concept

PREPA - Long-term PPOA’s at 12¢/kWh for Wind and 15¢/kWh for Solar

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) 2000-16

http://www.bgfpr.com/prcc2012/documents/PRElectricPowerAuthorityPRCC2012PresentationvFINAL.pdf

PREPA Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)

http://www.bgfpr.com/prcc2012/documents/PRElectricPowerAuthorityPRCC2012PresentationvFINAL.pdf

Finance transition towards Sustainable Development?

Development Finance InstitutionsInter-American Development BankUS Agency for International Development (USAID)Caribbean Development BankGov’t Development Bank for Puerto RicoInternational Finance Corp. (World Bank)

Privately Owned Spanish BanksBanco Popular (John Paulson)SantanderBBVA

BBVA Investment Portfolio (2012)

http://bancaparatodos.com/en/information-on-corporate-responsibility-2012/responsible-banking/responsible-finance/

Pattern Energy: Santa Isabel Wind Farm

Location: Santa Isabel, Puerto Rico

Capacity: 75-95MW

Design: 44, Siemens SWT-2.3-108 wind turbines

Cost: $200M

http://www.caribjournal.com/2012/10/31/new-puerto-rico-wind-farm-project-begins-operations-in-santa-isabel/

AES Solar: Guayama Ilumina Solar Park

Location: Guayama, Puerto Rico

Capacity: 20MW

Design: 100,800 Photovoltaic Panels (235W)

Cost: $100M

http://www.industrialespr.org/pages/Portals/0/Presentaciones/AES%20Ilumina%20Presentation.pdf

References

Angeles, M., & J.E. Gonzalez, D.J. Erickson III, J.L. Hernandez. The Impacts of Climate Chnages on the Renewable Energy Resources in the Caribbean. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering. 132.3 (Aug. 2010).

Charles, Don. Prospects of the Development of the Solar Energy industry in the Caribbean. International Journal of Green Economics. Vol. 6, No.1, 2012.

Hulme, Mike (2009). Why We Disagree About Climate Change. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Marino, John. Puerto Rico Sparks an Energy Revolution. American Planning Association. ProQuest Environmental Science Collection. July 2012: Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (2012). Annual Financial Report. Puerto Rico. Available at:

http://www.bgfpr.com/prcc2012/documents/PRElectricPowerAuthorityPRCC2012PrntationvFINAL.pdf

Shirley, Rebekah, & Daniel Kammen. Renewable Energy Sector Development in the Caribbean: Current trends and lessons from history. Energy Policy 57 (2013) 244-252.