future enterprise towards 2030 internet business innovation_20-21march2014,athens_iii.1 koussouris,...
TRANSCRIPT
Brainstorming on 2030 Net Business Innovation
Dr. Sotiris KoussourisNational Technical University of Athens (NTUA)Decision Support Systems Laboratory (DSSLab)
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Dr. Gianluigi ViscusiEPFL-CDM-CSI
Purpose of Today’s Roadmap Brainstorming Exercise
• To generate reflections on the Enterprises of the Future
• Talk on the trends and megatrends that change the landscape and the future of enterprises and entrepreneurship
• Build visionary scenarios towards new forms of enterprises that allow stakeholders to fully develop their business vision and produce significant shared value in the Digital Economy• In a probable future• In a desirable future
• Brainstorm on the role, nature, etc. of “new forms of enterprises” in these scenarios 2
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“New Forms of Enterprises"
Definition
Enterprises of the Future, driven by constant business model transformation and innovation,
acting as multi-sided platforms built on -as well as emerging from- digital innovations at the global, as
well as local level, to produce shared value including that beyond monetisation.
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Addressing Entrepreneurs, SMEs and Large Enterprises
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4Time
Size
EntrepreneursSMEs
LargeEnterprises
From Entrepreneurs to Large Enterprises• They all belong on the same “line” of the enterprise life, having different sizes• They are just different “snapshots” of the same story
Predictions has been always sought for preparation….
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From Trends to Scenarios – FutureEnterprise Roadmap Process
Identify Basic Trends
Extract Key Uncertainties
Define Scenarios FrameworkWith 5 Key Uncertainties
Map Visionary Scenarios
Elaborate on Storyboards
Analyze Opportunities &
Risks
Athens Workshop
Identify the role of New Forms of Enterrises
and FutureEnterprise Research Directions
Bring forward the Future Enterprise Characteristics
Merge to MegaTrends and
Draw Hypothesis
Is such a scenario pretty probable in a couple
years from now??
What about this one? Skynet and
Terminator future
Why do roadmaps usually fail?
• Reducing possible Key Uncertainties take certain things for granted and make very strong (and in most cases doubtful) assumptions
• Most roadmaps are based on 2D or 3D spaces and investigate all extreme points
• The possibility to arrive to an extreme future is quite unlikely
• + A small consortium does not posses all the wisdom the crowd does and sees things from a project specific viewpoint
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The future is unpredictable. But with your help, we can anticipate
its most important aspects.
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Key Uncertainties Identified
We want to know how will the future look like for….?
SMEs Entrepreneurs
Large Enterprises/Industry What else could be out there?
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EMERGING TRENDS AS DRIVERS OF THE ACCELERATION OF NEW FORMS OF ENTERPRISES
Gianluigi ViscusiEPFL-CDM-CSI - Odyssea - Station 5, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
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Sources
• Emergent perspectives from state of the art• Visions proposed by experts• Advices from crowdsourcing exercise
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Trends considered
• Political trends• Economic trends• Societal trends• Business trends• Entrepreneurship trends• Innovation trends• Technology trends
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Trends (1/3)
• Labour market regulation • Migration rules • Administrative burden reduction for entry as well as for growth • Taxes (income, business, and capital taxes) • Bankruptcy regulations • Change in EU roaming policies • Patent systems • Governance gap
• Talent competition• Innovation clusters • Deflation diffusion • Shift in global economic power
• Climate change • Ageing and Demographic shifts • Potential for Increased Conflict • Diversity and tolerance Concerns • Open Data • Anywhere-anytime consumers • Privacy and Identity Management Concerns
Political Trends
Economic TrendsSocieltal Trends
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Trends (1/3)
• Labour market regulation • Migration rules • Administrative burden reduction for entry as well as for growth • Taxes (income, business, and capital taxes) • Bankruptcy regulations • Change in EU roaming policies • Patent systems • Governance gap
• Talent competition• Innovation clusters • Deflation diffusion • Shift in global economic power
• Climate change • Ageing and Demographic shifts • Potential for Increased Conflict • Diversity and tolerance Concerns • Open Data • Anywhere-anytime consumers • Privacy and Identity Management Concerns
Political Trends
Economic TrendsSocieltal Trends
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• Political• Change in Labour Market and
Migration rules • Public value • Smart regulatory policy and
governance • Economic• Innovation competition• Shift in Economic power and
Resource scarcity• Societal• Global Warming & Climate
Change awareness• Identity and citizenship
emergence• Millennials rise
• Business• Social Business Ecosystems
• Entrepreneurship• Digital Entrepreneurship • Diversity in entrepreneurship • Entrepreneuralism
• Innovation• Innovation Flows • Information growth
Mega Trends
• Technology• Personalised Prosumption• Intelligent Machine
Collaboration• Supercomputing as a service• Data from Everywhere• Human Augmentation
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Trends (2/3)
• Shared value • Responsible Enterprise • Strategic Disclosure • Social Commerce • Evolving global value chains • Gamification in Enterprises
• Digital Startups rise • Multi-sided platforms • External Information Exposure • Digital Business oriented Venture
Capitals• Diversity in self-employment • Migrant Entrepreneurship • Positive attitudes toward business
failures • Entrepreneurialism in the
education curriculum • Self employment
• Research Mobility & Knowledge Networks (Braindrain)
• Intellectual Property (IP) Flows • Innovation hubs • Technology Transfer and Market
Validation = Technology Commercialization
• Openness in science and innovation • Scale paradox
Business Trends Entrepreneurship Trends
Innovation Trends
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Trends (2/3)
• Shared value • Responsible Enterprise • Strategic Disclosure • Social Commerce • Evolving global value chains • Gamification in Enterprises
• Digital Startups rise • Multi-sided platforms • External Information Exposure • Digital Business oriented Venture
Capitals• Diversity in self-employment • Migrant Entrepreneurship • Positive attitudes toward business
failures • Entrepreneurialism in the
education curriculum • Self employment
• Research Mobility & Knowledge Networks (Braindrain)
• Intellectual Property (IP) Flows • Innovation hubs • Technology Transfer and Market
Validation = Technology Commercialization
• Openness in science and innovation • Scale paradox
Business Trends Entrepreneurship Trends
Innovation Trends
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• Political• Change in Labour Market and
Migration rules • Public value • Smart regulatory policy and
governance • Economic• Innovation competition• Shift in Economic power and
Resource scarcity• Societal• Global Warming & Climate
Change awareness• Identity and citizenship
emergence• Millennials rise
• Business• Social Business Ecosystems
• Entrepreneurship• Digital Entrepreneurship • Diversity in entrepreneurship • Entrepreneuralism
• Innovation• Innovation Flows • Information growth
Mega Trends
• Technology• Personalised Prosumption• Intelligent Machine
Collaboration• Supercomputing as a service• Data from Everywhere• Human Augmentation
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• Big Data/Extreme Data • Smart Dust • Mesh Networks • Prescriptive Analytics• Wearable/ultra-portable
computing • Natural Language Search/
Natural-Language Question Answering
• Responsive and adaptive web design
• Bioacoustic Sensing/Skinput • Quantified Self • Brain-Computer interface • Volumetric & Holographic 3D
Displays
• Electrovibration• Smart Machines/Ubiquitous
computing • Mobile money • APIs/ Web of Things • Autonomous Vehicles • Virtual Currency • Enterprise 3D Printing • Gamification • Crowdsourcing • Contextual Computing • Hybrid/Federated/Mobile
Cloud • LTE (Long Term Evolution 4G) • Quantum Computing 5G
Trends (3/3)
Technological Trends
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• Big Data/Extreme Data • Smart Dust • Mesh Networks • Prescriptive Analytics• Wearable/ultra-portable
computing • Natural Language Search/
Natural-Language Question Answering
• Responsive and adaptive web design
• Bioacoustic Sensing/Skinput • Quantified Self • Brain-Computer interface • Volumetric & Holographic 3D
Displays
• Electrovibration• Smart Machines/Ubiquitous
computing • Mobile money • APIs/ Web of Things • Autonomous Vehicles • Virtual Currency • Enterprise 3D Printing • Gamification • Crowdsourcing • Contextual Computing • Hybrid/Federated/Mobile
Cloud • LTE (Long Term Evolution 4G) • Quantum Computing 5G
Trends (3/3)
Technological Trends
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• Political• Change in Labour Market and
Migration rules • Public value • Smart regulatory policy and
governance • Economic• Innovation competition• Shift in Economic power and
Resource scarcity• Societal• Global Warming & Climate
Change awareness• Identity and citizenship
emergence• Millennials rise
• Business• Social Business Ecosystems
• Entrepreneurship• Digital Entrepreneurship • Diversity in entrepreneurship • Entrepreneuralism
• Innovation• Innovation Flows • Information growth
Mega Trends
• Technology• Personalised Prosumption• Intelligent Machine
Collaboration• Supercomputing as a service• Data from Everywhere• Human Augmentation
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Political MegaTrends
Societal MegaTrends
Economic Mega Trends Business
Mega Trends
Innovation Mega Trends
TechnologicalMegaTrends
EntrepreneurshipMegaTrends
Mega Trends Relationship
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VISIONARY SCENARIOS TOWARDS NEW FORMS OF ENTERPRISES
Dr. Sotiris KoussourisNational Technical University of Athens (NTUA)Decision Support Systems Laboratory (DSSLab)
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Probable Future Results
Prosperity
Stability
Scarcity
Global Legislation
Fragmented Legislation
Self-regulation
CSR
Shared Value
Shareholders' Value
Machine Intelligence
Knowledge Based
Crowd Wisdom
Global
Glocal
LocalLe
gal F
ram
ewor
kO
pera
tions
& D
ecisi
on M
akin
g
10.8%
45.9%
43.2%
13.5%
70.3%
16.2%
12.2%
50.0%
37.8%
27.0%
66.2%
6.8%
37.8%
59.5%
2.7%
33% 50%
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Scenarios Selected
Wealth & Well-Being
Legal Framework
Value Created & Captures
Operations & Decision Making
Markets
Scenario 1 stability fragmented shared valueKnowledge-
basedglobal
Scenario 2 scarcity fragmentedshareholders’
valueKnowledge-
basedglocal
Scenario 3 stability fragmentedshareholders’
valueKnowledge-
basedglocal 28
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In total, 8 scenariosPattern Analysis showed the following 3 which prevail
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Probable Future #1
Probable Future #1 - Characteristics
I - Wealth: Economic & Social• Stability. Economic, socio-political and environmental sustainability, mix of social
classes, average income normally distributed, some epidemics, micro-conflicts.II - Legal frameworks• Fragmented Legislation. A few harmonised and proportionate high-level directives
but decentralised implementation, effectively competitive markets, authorities act to resolve conflicts, moderate and consultative bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture• Corporate Social Responsibility. Focusing on value creation over value capture,
balanced improvements for all stakeholders, extensive unremunerated interventions ‘paid for’ by indirect positive effects for the organization.
• Shared Value. Focusing on increasing value captured by specific stakeholders related to the organization, in order to further their interests collaboratively (even collusively) and (as part of this) to increase the long-term value of ownership stakes.
IV - Operations & Decision Making• Knowledge based. Machine-intensive operational and supporting processes,
controlled and managed by human intelligence.V - Markets• Global. Markets are homogenized and highly connected, mass production, products
are easily distributed, organizations compete globally, companies can easily move their operations..
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Probable Future #2
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Probable Future #2 - Characteristics
I - Wealth: Economic & Social• Scarcity. Shortage of resources, high levels of inequality in income, education and health,
polarised social classes, frequent signs of upheaval (riots, medium to high-intensity conflicts).
II - Legal frameworks• Fragmented Legislation. A few harmonised and proportionate high-level directives but
decentralised implementation, effectively competitive markets, authorities act to resolve conflicts, moderate and consultative bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture• Shareholders Value. Focusing only on increasing the value (stock price) of the shareholders. IV - Operations & Decision Making• Knowledge based. Machine-intensive operational and supporting processes, controlled and
managed by human intelligence. V - Markets• Glocal. Markets run both locally and globally, markets have a high degree of
homogenization.
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Probable Future #3
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Probable Future #3 - Characteristics
I - Wealth: Economic & Social• Stability. Economic, socio-political and environmental sustainability, mix of social classes,
average income normally distributed, some epidemics, micro-conflicts.
II - Legal frameworks:• Fragmented Legislation. A few harmonised and proportionate high-level directives but
decentralised implementation, effectively competitive markets, authorities act to resolve conflicts, moderate and consultative bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture:• Shareholders Value. Focusing only on increasing the value (stock price) of the
shareholders.
IV - Operations & Decision Making:• Knowledge based. Machine-intensive operational and supporting processes, controlled
and managed by human intelligence. V - Markets:• Glocal. Markets run both locally and globally, markets have a high degree of
homogenization.
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Desirable Future Results
Prosperity
Stability
Scarcity
Global Legislation
Fragmented Legislation
Self-regulation
CSR
Shared Value
Shareholders' Value
Machine Intelligence
Knowledge Based
Crowd Wisdom
Global
Glocal
Local
Lega
l Fra
mew
ork
Ope
ratio
ns &
Dec
ision
Mak
ing
86.3%
12.3%
1.4%
50.7%
32.9%
16.4%
54.8%
39.7%
5.5%
11.0%
78.1%
11.0%
41.1%
54.8%
4.1%
50%
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Desirable Future #1
Desirable Future #1 - Characteristics
I - Wealth: Economic & Social• Prosperity. Fast growth, Natural & human resources in abundance, high average per capita income, fair
distribution of wealth, high life expectancy, highly educated societies, long peace. in income, education and health, polarised social classes, frequent signs of upheaval (riots, medium to high-intensity conflicts).
II - Legal frameworks• Global Legislation. International law, strongly defined and state-enforced property & access rights, high market
entry or/and exit barriers, burdensome and extensive bureaucracy. III - Value creation and capture:• Corporate Social Responsibility. Focusing on value creation over value capture, balanced improvements for all
stakeholders, extensive unremunerated interventions ‘paid for’ by indirect positive effects for the organization. IV - Operations & Decision Making:• Knowledge based. Machine-intensive operational and supporting processes, controlled and managed by human
intelligence.
V - Markets:• Glocal. Markets run both locally and globally, markets have a high degree of homogenization.
1. How to go to Prosperity from Stability and Scarcity?2. How to go to Global Legislation from Fragmented Legislation?3. How to go to CSR from Share or Shareholder’s value?
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Ok, now we split up! (1/2)
• 3 Groups
• Discussion Point #1: Group brainstorming for the Probable Scenario• Q1.1 Comment on Megatrends and point out which ones may contribute
more towards this scenario - Identify other megatrends which are probable
• Q1.2. Describe enterprises in such a scenario (role, operation, what type enterprises exists • Entrepreneurs• SMEs• Large Industries• Other (new?) types?
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Ok, now we split up! (2/2)
• 3 Groups
• Discussion Point #2: Group brainstorming for the Desirable Scenario• Q2.1 Comment on Megatrends and point out which ones may contribute
more towards this scenario
• Q2.2 Identify gaps that could push the world towards this scenario and note which strategic decisions and shifts and innovation boosts in business/technology/society/etc. domains are needed and by whom • EC• Policy Makers and Governments• Enterprise Communities• Universities/Academia• ….
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Thanks for your attention!
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris (NTUA)
skous
Join Us!
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skous
Dr. Gianluigi Viscusi (EFPL)