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DNV GL © 2013 19 March 2015 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2013
19 March 2015
Christos Chryssakis
Future Fuels for Shipping
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Pathways to 2050
DNV GL © 2013 19 March 2015
Global Impact of Shipping
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Shipping: 3% of global CO2 emissions 10-15% of global NOx
4-9% of global SOx
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Our Global Challenge: Climate Change
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Source: International New York Times, May 14th, 2014
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Our Global Challenge: Climate Change
Shipping has to contribute
– Technical Measures
– Operational Measures
– Introduction of Alternative Fuels
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Source: IPCC, 2013
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Pressure to reduce GHG emissions to mitigate climate change
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Potential additional IMO CO2 requirements
State-sponsored CO2 reduction agreements
Separate stakeholder requirements
Alternative fuels may be a necessary part of the solution to reduce CO2 emissions
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Difficult Choices Ahead
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Increasingly strict regulations on emissions to air
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A number of alternative fuels will ensure compliance with upcoming requirements
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Drivers for Alternative Fuels in Shipping
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
New Regulations: Pollutant Emissions
Need for Low Sulfur Fuels
– In the ECAs (30-50 Mt/year today)
– Globally after 2020 (or 2025) ( 300 Mt/year)
Fuel Availability – Energy Security - Cost
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Lessons from history: fuel shift
1892: Diesel engine patented
1903: First diesel powered vessels were
launched
1912: First ocean-going diesel powered
vessel launced: MS Selandia
1945: 60% of new ships are diesel powered
1960: Most new ships are diesel powered
2000: First LNG powered ferry: MF Glutra
2014: 50 LNG powered ship scheduled for
delivery
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Alternative Fuels
for Low Carbon Shipping
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The Fuel Trilemma
Affordability
SafetySustainability
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The following alternative options could be used in shipping
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LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS
• A proven and available solution
SHIP ELECTRIFICATION AND RENEWABLES
• Efficient use of energy • Batteries enable use of renewable power
BIOFUELS
• Second and third-generation biofuels• Can be mixed with conventional fossil fuels
OTHER OPTIONS
• E.g. LPG, methanol, ethanol, hydrogen
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
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Gas Engines, Dual-
Fuel Engines
More than 50 ships
in operation
Main Issue:
Bunkering
infrastructure
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There are currently 139 confirmed LNG fuelled ship projects
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Updated 17.03.2015Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels
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Ship Electrification and Renewables
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Hybrid shipsPure electric
shipsCold ironing
Renewables for
power
production
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Biofuels
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Three sources:
edible crops; non-
edible crops and algae
Production capacity
increasing
Main challenges:
Land area required
Long term storage
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Other Gaseous or Liquid Fuel Options
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LPG: Liquefied
Petroleum Gas Methanol
DME: Di-Methyl
Ether
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Life Cycle Assessment of Fuels
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Well-to-Tank
RefineryPipeline to onshore refinery
Offshore gas/oil
production
Fuel tanker Receiving terminal
Distributionnetwork
Bunkering
Fuel usedfor propulsion
• Emissions to Air?• Environmental Footprint?
Tank-to-Propeller
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Environmental Footprint of Alternative Fuels
Well-to-Propeller Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Tank-to-Propeller (combustion) emissions assumed to be equal to CO2 absorbed by the plant during its lifetime
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Availability of Alternative Fuels
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Fuel 2010 Total consumption (million TOE/year)
Oil-based 4,028*
Natural Gas 2,858 (LNG: 250-300)
Biodiesel 18-20
LPG 275
Methanol 23
Ethanol 58
DME 3-5
Fischer-Tropsch 15
Biogas Very low
Hydrogen Very low
* Approximately 7-8% for shipping
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Future Scenarios – Medium Term 2015-2030
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Local – Short Sea Shipping
• Locally available fuel sources
• LNG in Norway, North America
• Methanol in Sweden
• Biodiesel from various feedstocks
• Electricity
Global – Deep Sea Shipping
• Different needs, more conservative
• Globally available fuels
• Oil-based fuels (Low Sulphur)
• LNG growing
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Future Scenarios – Long Term 2030-2050
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Local – Short Sea Shipping
• Locally produced fuels established
• Biogas
• Biodiesel
• Biomethanol/ethanol
• Electricity
• Hydrogen?
Global – Deep Sea Shipping
• Globally available fuels
• LNG
• Biodiesel
• Nuclear?
• Others?
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Possible Future Scenarios
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2020 2030 2050
LNG bunkering infrastructure developing.
Hybrid ship increasing fast in short sea shipping/offshore shipping.
Testing of methanol, ethanol, DME, biodiesel and biogas
LNG penetrating the deep sea shipping segment
Cold Ironing/shore power
Hybrid and electric ships are common in short sea/offshore.
Pilot installations of fuel cells with hydrogen solutions in niche segments as supplementary propulsion power.
Biofuels and biogas part of the fuel mix for niche trades and regional use.
LNG could be the main fuel used in deep sea shipping
Hybrid and electric ships conventional, especially for short sea/offshore. Fuel cell with hydrogen fuel produced from renewables.
Unexpected events could lead to radical solutions, such as Carbon Capture or Nuclear propulsion
Biodiesel and biogas will have an important role
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Getting ready for alternative fuels
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A structured, step-wise approach
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Fuel decisionIs the alternative fuel technically feasible and a commercially attractive solution for the vessel?
1
Technology
qualificationWill the new technology function?2
Review of
concept and
initial design
Is the design ready for the alternative fuel and are all necessary regulatory requirements met?
3
Risk assessmentDoes the design adequately deal with the risks of implementing the alternative fuel?
4
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Two options for making a vessel ready for an alternative fuel
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Vessel ready for operation today
Vessel ready for future retrofit
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Selandia – first diesel powered ocean going vessel - 1912
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Warning: Never mistake a clear view for a short distance (Paul Saffo, Stanford)
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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
Alternative Fuels for Shipping
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