future global trade and market modelling with efi-gtm€¦ · future global trade and market...
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European Forest Sector Outlook ToS meeting, Geneva, 23-24 November 2009
Future global trade and market modelling with EFI-GTM
Alexander Moiseyev, EFIBirger Solberg, UMBMaarit Kallio, METLA
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2
EFI-GTM model
• Global Forest Sector Model• Partial equilibrium model • Several regional agents maximize their profit/welfare
under perfect competition• Recursive model • Dimensions
– 36 products (6 wood, 4 rec.paper, 26 forest industry products)
– 60 regions (31 in Europe)– 1–3 existing production technologies + new
technologies from investments
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EFI GTM model structure
Demand 1 Demand 2
Production 1 Production 2
Logs Supply 1
INPUTS (Labor, energy, wood)
COSTS (Labor, energy, chemicals, capital, other)
CAPACITY
Technology 1 Technology 2 Technology 1 Technology 2TRADE
Transportation costs
Po
Qo
Ho
Po
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A1 versus B2 assumptions
• GDP growth (A1 & B2 assumptions)• GDP elasticities (Lower elasticities for
newsprint and graphic paper in EU under B2, but higher for sawnwood)
• Industrial Wood Supply assumption• Russian Logs Export Tariff
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A1 Reference Industrial Wood Supply Assumptions in Russia, Asia Developing and Latin America (Source: FAO’s 2000 Outlook on Future Supply of wood
from Plantations)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Millions cum
Russia Asia_Developing Latin America
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A1 & B2 Industrial Wood Supply Assumptions in EU27, North America and Oceania & Asia
Developed
0
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Millions cum
EU27 North America Ocean&Japan&Korea
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A1 Reference Industrial Wood Supply Assumptions
In Developed CountriesIn Developing Countries & Russia
0
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Millions cum
EU27 North America Ocean&Japan&Korea
0100200300
400500600700800900
100011001200130014001500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Millions cum
Russia Asia_Developing Latin America
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A1 EU27 Newsprint Consumption (GDP elasticity 1)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Millions ton
Consumption
A1
Power (Consumption)
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A1 & B2 Newsprint Consumption (GDP elasticity 0,5 for B2)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Millions ton
Consumption
A1
B2
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A1, B2 and Negative EU27 Newsprint Consumption
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Millions ton
Consumption
A1
B2
Negative
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A1 & B2 Paper Consumption (Gpaper elasticity 1,2 for A1 and 0.8 for B2; Other Paper
elasticity 1)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Millions ton
Consumption
A1_Demand
B2_Demand
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Historical and projected (EFI-GTM, compared to EFSOS 2020 projection) A1 & B2 Paper
Consumption and Production, MT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Production
Consumption
A1_Demand
B2_Demand
A1_Production
B2_Production
EFSOS Base Demand
EFSOS Integration Demand
EFSOS Conservation Demand
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Historical and projected (EFI-GTM, compared to EFSOS 2020 projection) A1 &
B2 Industrial Wood Harvest, Mm3
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Harvest
A1 harvest
B2 harvest
EFSOS Base
EFSOS Integration
EFSOS Conservation
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2005 base trade flows of wood and wood based products (round wood equivalent) between EU and other global
regions, M m3. Source – EFI/WFSE Forest Products Trade Flow Database.
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Historical and projected (EFI-GTM) A1 Paper Trade Flow by Region, (MT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Other World Trade
Europe to: Africa
Europe to: CIS north
Europe to: Mid East
North Am to: Latin Am & Carib
CIS north to: Europe
East Asia to: East Asia
CIS north to: East Asia
North Am to: North Am
Europe to: East Asia
North Am to: East Asia
Europe to: Europe
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Historical and projected (EFI-GTM) B2 Paper Trade Flow by Region, (MT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Other World Trade
Europe to: Africa
Europe to: CIS north
Europe to: Mid East
North Am to: Latin Am & Carib
CIS north to: Europe
East Asia to: East Asia
CIS north to: East Asia
North Am to: North Am
Europe to: East Asia
North Am to: East Asia
Europe to: Europe
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
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Historical and projected (EFI-GTM) A1 Roundwood Trade Flow by Region, (Mm3)
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Other World Trade
Africa to: East Asia
Africa to: Europe
North Am to: North Am
Latin Am & Carib to: East Asia
Oceania to: East Asia
North Am to: East Asia
East Asia to: East Asia
CIS north to: East Asia
CIS north to: Europe
Europe to: Europe
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Historical and projected (EFI-GTM) B2 Roundwood Trade Flow by Region, (Mm3)
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Other World Trade
Africa to: East Asia
Africa to: Europe
North Am to: North Am
Latin Am & Carib to: East Asia
Oceania to: East Asia
North Am to: East Asia
East Asia to: East Asia
CIS north to: East Asia
CIS north to: Europe
Europe to: Europe
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
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What type of long-term forecast for wood and wood products do we need?
Future is very uncertain (nobody knows what is most likely scenario is going to be) and we need to foresee different type of future and prepare our self for variety of options
We need to plan policies to address the most important changes in the future
We need to develop methods and models, which allows to analyse various scenarios and to address policy changes expected and needed