future health service, patients and pharma
TRANSCRIPT
The future of heath care,
patients and pharma
Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.
Futurist
Centre for Future Studieshttp://uk.fremforsk.dk/
A society based on
expectations
We are so used to economic growth in our
societies that we expect it every year – constant
improvement!
In Sweden and Denmark around 2,5% every year,
in Norway it used to be 3,5% - now things have
changed
National health service need room for
improvement to – we are used to growth
If public services do not improve, we experience it
as a decline and a step backwards
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Demographic development
Denmark 2016-2026
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +
Demographic development
Denmark, real numbers
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Age 2016 2026 Ændring
0-9 627373 684088 56715
10-19 683865 655021 -28844
20-29 748732 760112 11380
30-39 673593 783309 109716
40-49 797159 685829 -111330
50-59 765248 782877 17629
60-69 681207 720045 38838
70-79 486316 584522 98206
80-89 200294 312632 112338
90 + 43464 52767 9303
Total 5707251 6021202 313951
Demographic development
Norway 2016-2026,
Middelprognosen
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +
Demographic development
Norway, real numbers
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Age 2016 2026 Ændring
0-9 630873 685970 55097
10-19 634657 667636 32979
20-29 709180 716064 6884
30-39 696814 810259 113445
40-49 747983 732484 -15499
50-59 662199 744729 82530
60-69 569712 625803 56091
70-79 355382 495764 140382
80-89 175073 236659 61586
90 + 43684 45394 1710
total 5.225.557 5.760.762 535.205
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 62016
Demographic development
Sweden 2016-26
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +
Demographic development
Sweden, real numbers
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Age 2016 2026 Ændring
0-9 1192682 1367038 174356
10-19 1089548 1327842 238294
20-29 1345098 1323030 -22068
30-39 1252714 1546973 294259
40-49 1305967 1343908 37941
50-59 1247213 1337046 89833
60-69 1136325 1208866 72541
70-79 897455 1006928 109473
80-89 409519 611217 201698
90 + 97384 108426 11042
Total 9.973.905 11.181.274 1.207.369
Health – a global trend
Becoming richer and richer
Our body in a runaway world – the new arena of
control and attention
Health as an important issue at many agendas
Family: Food diet, exercise, lifestyle – optimizing
your health
Public services – first class improvements wanted
Shopping arenas – incorporated in the setup
Treatment: the more the better
The New Phases of Life
0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60
2000
1960
2030
Childhood
Teenager
Parents/
family
Elder
Freedom 1 Senior
Freedom 2
The patient of the future
Do not believe in authorities, doctors and others experts
anymore
Have become their own expert on health, treatment and
cure
Want pharmaceuticals that fits their personality
Have already been in contact with their bank, lawyer,
governmental heath authorities and private advisers
Will also been seen very soon in Mexico, India and
China!
Although TEVA is selling prescriptive drugs, TEVA will
need more focus at the end users in the future
Give me a diagnosis and
some treatment
Diagnosis in demand – we what an explanation
We also want a better and enhanced
functionality – better health, better heart, higher
performance in sports and at home
A person in good health is a person we haven't
examined in great details – any person can be
turned into a patient if you do enough tests and
screenings
We simply want more!
Unwanted medical
interaction
More and more people become
chronic patients – taking medicine for treatment of
hypertension, high cholesterol, allergy and asthma
More and more diseases and unhealthy conditions can
be treated
Consumption of medicine per citizen is growing faster
and faster
Patients with disorders caused by unwanted interaction
from different forms om medical treatment will be major
problem in the future – growing fast in numbers
The assembly line thinking at hospitals must go!
Polarization of
Patients
Middleclass:
Enjoys growing prosperity in the Nordic countries
Higher expectations and demands towards the welfare state
The new underclass :
Life strategy – getting lucky!
Lacks most personal and social resources
Shorter expected lifespan, unhealthy lifestyle, do not listed to middleclass advice and guidance
Getting them to live a better life requires field work and practical side-by-side learning ad guidance
Disruptive technology
3D print
Wearables – already i
many forms and shapes
The digital revolution
Version 3.0
We are in the middle of a real digital revolution
that changes the way we work, produce and
communicate in a new digital society.
Its often invisible to us – or getting invisible
Digital structure and software has become a
basic part of peoples lives and public and
privates companies
Sharing economy is not sharing, but creating
new markets and businesses using smart
phones
Average time spend on social
media jan-marts 2015 og jan-
marts 2016, US
2015
2016
EU and Health
Health have been a part of EU political frame since
2007
Target: Creating equal assess to treatment and care
We had – and still have – 28 (27) very different
systems of health care in the EU
EU is creating a number of targeted initiatives
regarding alcohol, nutrition and access to treatment
at hospitals
A single market for public health service is a long
way away
The health sector
Under growing economic pressure due to better
treatments, aging populations and higher level
demands from patients
Bigger and better hospitals
Fewer hours at the hospital for each patient
Growing focus on consultation and treatment -
digital and at distance
AI diagnosis and a helping digital “hand” to
doctors & nurses and in operating theaters
Hospitals and the health
sector in the future
Increased specialization and division of labour
Patients at ”Drive in diagnosis centres”
treatment at the spot!
Productivity and efficiency in fokus – just
continuing
Measurement and benchmarking
Pressure from above at the employees: More in
quantity and better in quality
Documentation & evidence
Patients and systems
Patients and citizens can not be expected to know
how the system really works – but they are!
Someone has to create the links and transitions
from GP’s to specialist & hospitals – and from
hospitals to municipal care and after treatment
If not we will see more patients going in and out of
hospitals without getting better
This could be very true for the patients you supply
medical treatment to
Six Generations
Baby BoomersBorn 1940-54
Post war generation –
educational boom
Reinventing every phase of life
Rock, beat, soul
Tech: The pill
Generation Jones
Recently discovered
Large generation
Design, ethics, idea
Against divorce, pro family – tech: Stereo set
Born 1955-67
Generation X
The so-what generation
Small after the pill
Selfcenteret, extrovert
Personal succes, Video, workaholics, love brands
Born 1968-79
Generation Y
The smallest gen.
Fun shoppers, great social skills, Myself inc., situational consumption managing many choices
1980-89, PC, cell phone
Generation Z
Between war gen.,
Project & trophy kids
Be famous, groups based
Digital natives
Born 1990-2001
New Millenium
After 9-11 generation
Cultural homogenization
EU as native soil
Wi–Fi (Wireless internet)
Født 2001 - 2011
Generation Y ( 1980-89)
..and as patients
The first online and Google it! ..Information, shopping,
chatting, uploads of pics and videos
The digital natives
Personal recognition for what I say or do
Wants special treatment and something made just for them
Praise them – every day and every time you meet them
Praise them for the way they behave as patients – even if
they are not doing so well
Then are very fast to search for an alternative opinion and
alternative treatment of their medical condition
Generation Z
Socialization: Kindergartens
Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping malls: The digital natives Can´t remember a life without a PC and a cell-phone
Without the cell-phone ”I feel Naked”
Social networking is a must in life
Among Peers
Personal recognition for what I say or do
Personalized treatment, special attention to me
Wants a digital diagnosis when they are building a school in Africa or trekking in Himalaya
”Born digital”
Generation Z
Pharma in the future
Growing and aging population, demand for diagnosis
and treatment, new pharma and new cures – It is a great
world!
How to create a growing number of chronic patients? –
go find them, make new tests, new screening programs
etc.
Preventive medicine will soar
From general to personalized drugs
The other side of the coin: Demanding research, shorter
earning windows for new drugs, harder competition and
shortage of highly qualified workers
Who eats who?
Darwin:Survival of the fittest
Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast
Managers plays a vital role in keeping the company fit
Jesper Bo Jensen
Fremforsk
- Centre for Future Studies
Balticagade 15, st. th.
8000 Aarhus C
T +45 86 11 47 44
M +45 20 67 45 00
www.fremforsk.dk/en
Instagram og twitter:
#fremforsk
@JesperBoJensen
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