future internet scenarios and business challenges
TRANSCRIPT
Future Internet Scenarios
and Business Challenges
8. Fachtagung des ITG Fachausschusses 5.2‘Zukunft der Netze’, Chemnitz
Klaus Wuenstel, Michael Soellner
Alcatel-Lucent, Bell Labs, Germany
20 März 2009
2 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Outline: Future Internet Scenarios and Business Challenges
� Introduction
� Non-technical aspects and business drivers
� Technical concepts for a ‘Future Internet‘
� Business scenarios, value chains and new players
� Business Use Case ‘New Ways of Information Delivery’
� Conclusions
The content of this presentation is based on work
performed in the FP7 project ‘4WARD’
see www.4WARD-project.eu
3 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Major trends in the next decadeand their relation to the Internet
� Technology Environment: Multitude of networked/distributed applications beyond Web2.0
� flexible and participatory,
� “prosumers”: user and provider are widely interchangeable/dynamically attached roles
� Social-Economic Environment: Awareness of demographic change in an aging society (Europe and others)
� Significant percentage of people beyond the age of retirement
� Few young people – need for efficient high-level education
� Shortage of labour force – need for automation and increased efficiency
� “Information” centric rather than “bit” centric at the network level
� Integrated support of mobility
� Wireless access, optical backbones
� Communication everywhere
� Infrastructure to support trade and industry
� New services – new devices – new interactions
� Security that nevertheless keeps the generativity of the network intact
� Low cost to access, deploy and operate evolvable and interoperable networking infrastructure (architectures)
4 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
IETF RFC History: Patch-wise Evolution to Complexity
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
# of new RFCs
# of RFCs (cumulated)
Ethernet, SDH, ATM,..
CSMA/CD…multiple access
fiber, TP, CAT5, radio (GSM, WiFi,…)
SMTP, HTTP, RTP…
email, Web, VoIP,…
TCP, UDP,SCTP...
•IPIPsec, NAT, QoS
mobility, multicast
Complexity is potentially growing with each RFC --Current evolution attempts by “patching the Internet” often violating fundamental Internet
design principles will lead to a dead end: Need for a ‘clean slate’ approach
5 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Switzerland
Spain
France
UK GermanyPoland
Austria
Italia
Norway
Sweden
Israel
WIT
EricssonKTHSICS
EricssonNokia-Siemens-NetworksVTT Alcatel-Lucent
Deutsche TelecomEricssonNokia-Siemens-NetworksTu BerlinUniv. of BremenUniv. of KarlsruheUNiv. of Paderborn
Telekomunikacja Polska
SiemensTPUCN
Technion
SAGO
Telcom Italia
Alcatel-LucentFrance TelecomGET-INTLIP6
Univ. of Basel
Robotiker-TecnaliaTelefonica
IST-TULPTIN
Romania
Finland
NECUniv. of LancasterUniv. of SurreyEricsson
Canada
Po
rtug
al
Ireland
US
FIND/GENIASIAN INITIATIVES
FUTURE INTERNET
FORUM
SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7
PROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTS
eMobilityeMobilityeMobilityeMobility, , , ,
OTHER EUPROJECTS
Other ETPs(NEM)
W
A DR
4
3GPP, …IETF/IRTF
FIND/GENIASIAN INITIATIVES
FUTURE INTERNET
FORUM
SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7
PROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTS
eMobilityeMobilityeMobilityeMobility, , , ,
OTHER EUPROJECTS
Other ETPs(NEM)
W
A DR
4 W
A DR
4
3GPP, …IETF/IRTF
4WARD: A Next Generation Internet Project in EU FP7
4WARD Mission
� A holistic approach to shape the “Future Internet” towards a consistent design
� that satisfies the fixed and mobile operators’ and users’ requirements for the next decades
(beyond 2015)
� committed to innovations based on a “clean slate” design
6 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
The 4WARD Technical Drivers (1)
� Provide a new architecture framework
� design principles and patterns to easily
develop new custom-tailored architectures
� ensuring required properties and and
interoperability
� adaptable to different technologies and
applications (e.g. based on vitualized
networks)
� Virtualisation of network resources
� Enable different architectures to co-exist
and inter-operate in a secure and cost-
efficient manner
New Architectural Principles and Concepts:
Design Process(including iterations)
Design Process(including iterations)
Compositionof func-
tionality (CFI)
Requirements …
Requirements …
(Meta) Modeling
“Blue Print”of networkarchitecture
4WARD WP2 Framework
Network architect
Implementationiterations
Inter-operability
Guidelines,building blocks …
Design Process(including iterations)
Design Process(including iterations)
Compositionof func-
tionality (CFI)
Requirements …
Requirements …
(Meta) Modeling(Meta) Modeling
“Blue Print”of networkarchitecture
4WARD WP2 Framework
Network architect
Implementationiterations
Inter-operability
Guidelines,building blocks …
Management of Virtual Networks (→Task 3.3)
Provisioning of Virtual Networks (→Task 3.3) (aggregate “slices” and form virtual networks)
Substrate
Virtualised substrate
Virtual Network Virtual Network
Virtualisation of Resources (→Task 3.2) (partitioning of physical infrastructure into “slices” )
Virtualization of Networks:
7 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
The 4WARD Technical Drivers (2)
� Networking of information
� Exploit potential of information objects having
their own identity, not bound to specific hosts
� Tolerate interruptions in connectivity and
variations in quality (mobile networking)
� Functionally rich communication paths for
advanced connectivity
� Increase the capacity and dependability of
networks of mixed technologies
� Support applications that require more than
today’s point-to-point dissemination pattern
� Serve mobility, security and QoS requirements
� Embedded, ‘default-on’ network
management capability
� Enable the networks to adjust themselves to
different sizes, configurations and external
conditions
� Design and implement a thin pervasive self-
organising network management plane
A
C
E
B
A
B
E
A
C
A
E
B
A
D
E
A
D
E
E
B
D
D
A
C
E
B
A
B
E
A
C
A
E
BB
AA
BB
EE
AA
CC
A
E
BB
AA
DD
EE
AA
DD
E
E
B
DDD
D
Network of Information:
split/balance
merge/network code
decode
joincodecooperatively
Generic path 1Generic path 2
split/balance
merge/network code
decode
joincodecooperatively
Generic path 1Generic path 2
Generic Connectivity:
In-Network Management:
8 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Non-technical Aspects and Business Drivers
� Society aspects
� Mobility aspects, reachability, virtual environments, less pollution
� Need for security and balance between privacy and sharing
� Business aspects
� Market opportunities, opening of new markets
� Business models and value chains, new roles and players
� Policy, Governance and Regulation aspects
� impact of existing regulations, e.g. legal interception
� non-discriminatory access to network resources and service providers, impact of hypothetical regulations on the future Internet
� These aspects need special consideration:
systematic approach in 4WARD
WP BIRD “Business Innovation, Regulation and Dissemination”
9 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Impact of non-technical Drivers
New Business
Models
New UsagesSocietalTrends
Future Internet/ New Technologies
Governance/ Regulation
create
demand forprovide
economic
base for
drive
introduction
of
make possible
need to comply with
need to evolve with
need to
comply with
need to
adapt to
create
political
pressure
support/impede
make use of/
demand services
from
trigger/
enable
enforce
• A complex system of meshed relationships• Success of Future Internet depends from System Dynamics, not just on individual factors
10 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
The 4WARD Feedback Triangle
Modeling the impact of non-technical drivers on Future Internet
PolicyGovernanceRegulation
TechnologiesBusiness ModelsSocio-economics
Service Usage
regulation scenarios:scope and depth of
regulation (light, strong)
business scenarios run under different
regulation scenarios
guidelines,requirements
new concepts,new technologies,
focus areas
guidelines,requirements
new concepts,new technologies,
focus areas
11 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Guidelines set up for 4WARD technical work
� Support safety-critical applications: new technologies must support people to
do the right things in a proper way and in a safe environment
� Support the ‘Networked Everyday Life’: allow communication not only among
persons, but also between persons and things and among things, enable
seamless data availability and exchange everywhere and anytime
� Support mass-market customer requirements: provide a satisfactory quality of
experience for the average customer and high quality of experience on
demand
� Relieve the strain on the environment and be a ‘Green Technology’
� Support existing and emerging business models, enable new players to enter
commercial and non-commercial services without disrupting existing services
and without jeopardizing their evolution.
� follow the ‘Internet Community’ style (decentralized and collaborative
processes, open standards)
12 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business models, value chains and new players:Methodology
Scenario ‘Business models, value chains and new players’
focuses on the non-technical aspects of the Future Internet
� evaluates the impact of social, economic and political trends on the ICT
business
� works out the most decisive elements that will probably govern the future
business environment
The scenario description includes the study of a couple of issues
in the context of Internet evolution:
� change of the market balance
� opportunities for new business players
� regulation requirements to enable fair and reliable market conditions
� cooperation strategy for established actors
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business models, value chains and new players:Outcome
Main drivers:
most relevant factors, about which common view
was achieved on high impact and relevance:
� aging society
� green technologies
� security, privacy, trust
� evolution from consumers to prosumers
...
Main challenges:
most relevant factors, about which controversial opinions
were received on impact and relevance
� from divergent opinions two extreme scenarios were derived :
Elephant & Gazelle
14 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Models, Value Chains and New Players:Two Extremes
� The ‘Elephant’ scenario is characterised by strong forces which
preserve a given market regime and allow changes of market forces
only in slow-motion
� The ‘Gazelle’ scenario predicts the coexistence of many players
in a highly dynamic market
15 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Models, Value Chains and New Players:Possible Evolution
� Both scenarios will probably not offer the optimum of innovation degree as
business may need both types of business players, ‘elephants’ and ‘gazelles’
� The optimum scenario considering the preferred 4WARD roadmap will be a
track between the two extreme scenarios, trying to enable high innovation
degree over time
� The two starting scenarios are refined by the definition of use cases
1 of
the
crite
ria
desc
ribin
g ex
trem
e sc
enar
ios
e.g
. Co
mp
etit
ion
Time 2020
Use cases
Scenarios
4WARD - roadmap
1st step: Evaluation of use cases
16 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
From Scenario Work to Business Use Cases
WP 2:
New architecture
principles and concepts
WP 1: BIRD
Business Innovation, Regulation,
and Dissemination
–
WP 3:
Network Virtualisation
WP 4:
In Network Management
WP 5:
Forwarding and
Multiplexing for Generic Paths
WP 6:
Network of Information
Non-technical
Technical
Definition of Use Cases for the evaluation of business models and strategies
Scenario 4: Business model, value chain, new players
Scenario 3: Managing the Future Internet - Benefits for operators
Scenario 2: Novel appl. that are not possible with current Internet (end-user view)
Scenario 1: Looking back from 2020: What made the "old" Internet break
17 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Models, Value Chains and New Players:Five major use cases
� Enhanced connectivity in the user communication space
� End-to-End Quality of Service
� Virtualisation
� Identity Provider
� New ways of information delivery
���� Two use cases have been selected for evaluation first
18 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Use Cases Studies
Business use cases studied in 4WARD so far:
� Virtualisation
� New ways of information delivery
General Outcome
� Future Internet scenarios have been translated into sound use cases
in close collaboration with technical work packages
� Existing business methodology has been extended with new business role
descriptions and qualitative value chains for the two use cases
� Potential benefits for different players have been identified, summarising
value propositions for customers and business players
19 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Use Case: ‘New ways of information delivery’Short Description
� While I am visiting friends, we start talking about an odd book they have read.
� I want to buy it immediately, so from my portable PC I access the proper site (e.g. Amazon.com) and buy it in the form of an ‘e-publication’. This is not a downloadable e-book, as it is popular in the web 2.0.
� It is a real new object in the network of information: I do not buy the download of a specific file (e.g. in PDF format) to my PC, but I buy the right to access the file any time I want, from any device of my own, no worry abut the proper format.
� I have several hardware devices of my own that can be suitable for ‘reading’ the e-publication: portable PC, mp3 player, iPod, home desktop PC, cellular phone, Amazon Kindle (or a similar device), home TV.
� Immediately I start browsing the e-publication on my portable PC, then I stop reading and bookmark the last paragraph I have read.
� When I leave my friends’ house, I resume my ‘reading’ while driving home, choosing my mp3 player.
� It will access the object, modified with my bookmark, and will start reading from this bookmark. As I get home and the service might detect that there are other suitable devices, I am prompted whether I want to switch over from listening the mp3 player to reading on one of these devices: Kindle, home PC or TV.”
20 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Use Case: ‘New ways of information delivery’Short Description
� While I am visiting friends, we start talking about an odd book they have read.
� I want to buy it immediately, so from my portable PC I access the proper site (e.g. Amazon.com) and buy it in the form of an ‘e-publication’. This is not a downloadable e-book, as it is popular in the web 2.0.
� It is a real new object in the network of information: I do not buy the download of a specific file (e.g. in PDF format) to my PC, but I buy the right to access the file any time I want, from any device of my own, no worry abut the proper format.
� I have several hardware devices of my own that can be suitable for ‘reading’ the e-publication: portable PC, mp3 player, iPod, home desktop PC, cellular phone, Amazon Kindle (or a similar device), home TV.
� Immediately I start browsing the e-publication on my portable PC, then I stop reading and bookmark the last paragraph I have read.
� When I leave my friends’ house, I resume my ‘reading’ while driving home, choosing my mp3 player.
� It will access the object, modified with my bookmark, and will start reading from this bookmark. As I get home and the service might detect that there are other suitable devices, I am prompted whether I want to switch over from listening the mp3 player to reading on one of these devices: Kindle, home PC or TV.”
ubiquitous
information-centric
content-oriented
multiple access
delay/disruption tolerant
mobility
21 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Use Case ‘New Ways of Information Delivery’
Business idea example:
� Support digitalization of media (books, video tapes etc..) from network side
� Support appropriate access to digital media, simple usage of diverse end
terminals including easy switching between them
Technical solutions: Network of information & Generic path concept
Value chain:
Application Service Provider
End user
Cash flowE-book instance,Personal apps (e.g. bookmark)
E-books library
Objects flow
Connectivity
NetInf &Gen Path
Network Operator
Content Provider
Device Vendor
Viable devices
NetInf &Gen Path
22 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Use Case ‘New Ways of Information Delivery’
Benefits for the end user
� Comfortable and speed optimized information delivery
� Optimized presentation format dependent on end device and personal
configuration options
� Simple Switching between different end terminals
New service opportunities for providers
� Provide efficient and billable ways of information delivery
Main conclusions for ‘Network of Information’ work package
� Technology has impact on each player’s business processes: new roles and
players, value chain changing to value network
� Impact on social life: any appliances and viable object can be a ‘subscriber’
� Impact on revenue models: appearance of multi-stream revenue structures
23 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Conclusions
� 4WARD accompanies its technology work by a systematic approachto support the business stakeholders for their decision-making with respect to a Future Internet
� ongoing work, more results available towards the project end (mid 2010)
� Challenges for future Innovations:
� Economic and business models
� Viable business models needed for a successful introduction of technical innovations for the ‘Future Internet’
� Find effective ways for transfer of results from Clean Slate ‘Future Internet’ approach into real IP world (migration scenarios)
� Create new and extend existing business models considering
� new players and markets
� new forms of revenues and savings
� Speed up commercial exploitation of the new network systems by elaborating the dynamics in the relations amongst
� new technologies
� socio-economic requirements
� governance and regulation constraints
24 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Acknowledgement
The content of the paper is based on work which has been performed in the European FP7 project ‘4WARD’ [www.4WARD-project.eu] with major contributions also from:
•Banniza, Thomas Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs
•Biraghi, Anna Maria Telecom Italia
•Correia, Luis Univ. Lisbon, IST
•Kind, Mario Deutsche Telekom AG
•Monath, Thomas Deutsche Telekom AG
•Niebert, Norbert Ericsson
•Salo, Jukka Nokia Siemens Networks
•Sebastiao, Daniel Univ. Lisbon, IST