future of broadband in malaysia
DESCRIPTION
Technology Talk to UTHM Dec. 4, 2013TRANSCRIPT
Future of Broadband in Malaysia Presentation by: Dr. Mazlan Abbas
Technology Seminar – UTHM Dec. 4, 2013
+Summary
n Introduction to the Malaysian Broadband
n DNA - The Key Drivers
n The Technology Trends
n Summary
+The Birth of Internet in Malaysia
1995 25,000 Users / 20M Population
2012 17,700,000 Users / 29M Population
JARING Introduced Malaysian Internet with 25 Subscribers
+Cellular Broadband
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
+Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
1. ADSL – Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line 2. VDSL – Very high bit rate Digital Subscriber Line 3. SDSL – Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line 4. ETTH – Ethernet to the Home
+DSL Technology Options
+DSL Speed vs Distance
+Fibre
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
+Wireless Broadband
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
+Hotspot
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
+Overview
n 3G Service
n 14.6 M subscriptions [Dec. 2012]
n 82% pop coverage [June 2012]
n Cellular phone subscriptions
n 41.1 M
n 141.6% per pop [Dec. 2012]
n Cellular coverage at populated areas
n 96.8% [Dec. 2012]
n Internet users
n 17.7 M [June 2012]
n Mobile broadband subscriptions n 3.3 M [Jan. 2013]
n Broadband subscriptions n 6.2 M [Jan. 2013]
n In 2013, our digital eco-system will welcome two new service, Hybrid TV – Digital Terrestrial TV with Internet and Mobile 4G-LTE
+Evolution of Wireless Technologies
National Broadband Initiative In 2005, Malaysia targets
50% Broadband Household Penetration by 2010
Growth: 10.6% (2006) to 53.5% (Oct. 2010)
Target: 75% (2015)
+Global Innovation Index - Ranking Country 2008-2009 Rank
USA 5.28 1
Germany 4.99 2
UK 4.84 3
Sweden 4.82 4
Singapore 4.81 5
South Korea 4.73 6
Switzerland 4.73 7
Denmark 4.69 8
Japan 4.65 9
Netherlands 4.64 10
Canada 4.63 11
Hong Kong 4.59 12
Finland 4.57 13
… … …
Malaysia 4.06 25
Country 2009-2010 Rank
Iceland 4.86 1
Sweden 4.85 2
Hong Kong 4.83 3
Switzerland 4.82 4
Denmark 4.72 5
Finland 4.66 6
Singapore 4.65 7
Netherlands 4.62 8
New Zealand
4.60 9
Norway 4.59 10
USA 4.57 11
Canada 4.55 12
Japan 4.50 13
… … …
Malaysia 3.77 28
+Human Capacity - Researchers
+ Importance of ICT
Communications -> Information -> Knowledge -> Power
+What is Innovation?
Unlike invention, which usually requires a flash of inspiration,
innovation is a process of coordinated activities that, when linked with identified opportunities, generates new value for the organisation and
the customer.
+
Prime Minister introduced 4 strategic thrusts to transform
Malaysia towards Vision 2020
+
New Economic Model (NEM)as a framework to
begin our journey
+
+
NKEA will boost our Gross National Income (GNI) by 2020
USD 15,000 RM 48,000
Per capita
USD 6,700 RM 23,770
Per capita
A National Key Economic Activities (NKEA) is a driver of economic activity that has the
potential to directly and materially contribute a quantifiable amount of economic growth to the
Malaysian economy
[Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
+
12 NKEAs
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
+
MY Creative Content!Local content hub to
vitalise creative sector, reduce dependence on
international connectivity, and export content !
1MY Payment!Common standards,
platforms and security protocols to cashless payment to masses in
Malaysia"
Connecting 1MY!Next-generation
services to provide ubiquitous connectivity
and compelling services for the Rakyat at home,
in the workplace, "and ‘on-the-"
move’"
E-Learning!Integrated approach to
provide access, devices, and platforms/content/ applications to benefit
the learning "Rakyat"
E-Healthcare!Networked healthcare providers to each other and to their patients to
improve productivity and information
management"
E-Government!Increasing the
accessibility, speed, and transparency of
government services through communications
technology"
Broadband for All!Establishing broadband as an essential service to Malaysians on par
with other utilities, e.g. water and electricity"
Extend Reach!Acceleration and
expansion of broadband coverage in non-urban areas (e.g. to Zone 2
and" Zone 3)"
Smart Network!Differentiated pricing to provide higher quality and more affordable
service "
Regional Network!Capacity increase of
Malaysia’s submarine cable network to lower
international IP connectivity costs"
3a!
3b!
3c!
3d!
2a!
2b!
2c!
1a!
1b!
1c!
Enhancing Foundation!(Next Generation Infrastructure) !
Pushing Boundaries!(Industries Enablement)"
Serving Tomorrow!(Platform, Applications, Content) !
CCI - 10 EPPs covering 3 major categories
[Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
+Setting the Objectives - Challenges
6,000 schools
connected (60% of total)
4,500 Medical
institutions connected
(50% of total)
50% Of services
online (including
school registrations
and transfers, business
permits and licenses.
700,000 Non-urban broadband
users (Additional 2.1 Mil premises
passed and 2,000 wireless
sites)
RM320 million
(USD100 Million) Additional
revenue from export of
creative content
6 million Users on
Internet and mobile
payments
150,000 Additional fixed
broadband subscribers
860,000 Additional wireless
broadband subscribers
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
+Enhancing Foundation (Next Generation Infrastructure)
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
+Extend Reach - Deployment Challenges
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
+
Broadband – The Malaysian
Approach
B R I D G I N G T H E D I G I T A L
D I V I D E
+Rural Subscriber Present an Unlocked Potential
Close to 3.4 Billion people live in Rural Area (World population 6.7 Billion)
In Africa about 70% and in Asia 60%
Often there is NO communications service available
Characteristics of a potential village subscriber • Income less than USD 3 per day • Awareness and education level is low • Lack of basic infrastructure such as power, roads, etc
+Zones Distribution
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Zone 1 : High Speed Broadband (HSBB) • High Impact Area (>10Mbps) • Target to cover 50% of household
Zone 1&2 : Broadband for General Population (BBGP) • Medium Impact Area (> 384 kbps < 2 Mbps)
Zone 3 : Universal Service Provision (USP) • Telephone and Broadband (384 kbps) • Less than 80 people in 1 square km • Operators Contribution
Area Popula+on Technology Choice
Zone 1 13,318,703 FTTH, ETTH, VDSL, HSPA+, WiMAX
Zone 2 5,499,180 ADSL2+, HSPA+, WiMAX
Zone 3 8,911,813 ADSL, HSDPA, WiMAX, etc
Total 27,729,696
To-date: 53.5 % (Oct, 2010)
+
Time
Soci
o-ec
onom
ic v
alue
of I
CTs
Intensity of ICT adoption
Adoption gap
Diffusion of ICT infrastructure
Access gap
Value gap
Social & economic impact of ICTs
• Poor Value realization due to Insufficient value creating content
• Barrier to entry due to literacy level and language
• Complexity of Computers
• Connectivity
• Devices
• High cost of Infrastructure deployment
1
2
3
Understanding the Bridging Digital Divide (BDD) Gap
Knowledge comes from information
Information is Power
+Digital Natives - Webciety
Create Use Live
“We create the Internet” “We live and breathe in the Internet”
“We use the Internet”
+
1st Screen
2nd Screen
3rd Screen
4th Screen
5th Screen
Cinema
Television
Computer
Smartphone
Tablet
Digital Native
Screen Evolution
+4G (LTE)
+
Key Drivers of
Broadband
+
Driver #1
MOBILE
+Future Wireless Access – Key Challenges
Data Tsunami is coming • Currently an exponential growth of mobile data is observed* • More advanced devices with more capabilities
(smartphones, tablets, etc), as well as increased importance of machine generated data result in increased traffic generation
• Multi-device ownership, resulting in synchronization of data between devices
• Mobile Social Networking and User Generated Contents
* The data amount is doubling annually resulting in 1000× increase in the current decade, for the individual devices this means performance will increase 100×
+
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010
Subscribers (MM)
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
20
40
60
80
100
0
Mobile Internet
Quarters Since Launch
Desktop Internet
It’s Happening Fast !
+
Global Mobile vs. Desktop Internet User Projection, 2007 – 2015E
Internet Users(MM)
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
0 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Mobile Internet Users
Desktop Internet Users
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010
The Trend is Irreversible
+
Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the
End of 2017
+
Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over
the next 5 years.
+
Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017.
+
Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017
+
10GB Average data usage per month
548GB Highest user consump4on record in 1 month
600 Concurrent users per site
1,700TB Average monthly network traffic
Over 57% Rich Media ac4vi4es on P1’s network
Beyond Email. Beyond Voice
[SOURCE: Michael Lai Keynote Speech, WiMAX Forum SEA Regional Focus Conference 2010]
+
Traffic Equivalents* 1 Laptop= 15 Smartphones = 450 Voice Handsets
A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High Numbers of Mobile
Internet Users
[ Source: Cisco, 2009]
AT&T's iPhone Mess The iPhone has swamped AT&T's data network and sparked a
consumer rebellion.
Cover Story February 3, 2010
KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too KDDI’s President and Chairman, Tadashi
Onodera stated at GSMA Mobile Asia Congress 2010.
TeleGeography Comms Update
Wed, 17 Nov 2010
LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such huge data demands so we also need to use
other technologies such as WiMAX and WiFi
Mobile Data Crunch
+Smartphones Unleashed
+Device Ecosystem
47
Cre
ate
High-Performance UMPC Laptop
Laptop DIGI-Cam
Car
ry &
Ed
it
TV
UMPC UMD
eBook
Navigation
Dual Mode Handset PMP UMPC
Navigation Modem
Vie
w
In-Car Entertainment
Gateway
MP3 Player
Palm Pocket
Game PMP
Fixed & In Vehicle
Briefcase Handbag Backpack
Portability / Mobility
Info
rmat
ion
Con
sum
er
Cre
ator
+The Habits of Online Newspaper Readers
[http://online.wsj.com]
+User Interface Transformation
+What’s the Next UI?
Leap Motion Air Gesture
Moto-X Touchless Control
+
Driver #2
APPLICATIONS
+
Android Market
App Store
Blackberry App World
Ovi Store - Nokia
PlayNow Arena – Sony Ericsson
PocketGear App Store
Samsung App Store
Symbian Apps
Telus Mobility App Store
Verizon Media Store
Windows Marketplace
Mobile App Stores
+Data ARPU increase
Consumers increasingly want to access the same Internet content and services on their mobile phones that they can from fixed access/PCs
+
Social Media May 2011
+ Impact of Facebook
+ Impact of Twitter
+ Impact of YouTube 800 Million+ Monthly Unique Visitors • That’s more than the entire population of
Europe!
72 Hours+ Video Uploaded Per Minute • That’s over a decade of content every day!
4 Billion Hours of Video Viewed Each Month • That’s over 450,000 years of video viewed each
month!
+The Social Media Effect
User Generated Contents
+
Driver #3
NETWORKS
+
Never Ending Battle for “Networks Superiority”
Which is More Superior?
+The Future is Heterogeneous
Spectrum
Deployment
Technology GSM, HSPA,
LTE, WiFi
Macro – Outdoor Micro / Pico - Indoor
3G WiFi LTE
+
Key Challenges
+
Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report Dec ‘09
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
100
10
1
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Devices/Users
Mainframe
Minicomputer
PC
Desktop Internet
10B+ Connected
Devices +1B
+100M
+10M
+1M
Mobile Internet
Source: Rysavy Research Feb;10
Mobile Internet Capacity Gbytes
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capacity Demand
Capacity Supply
The Mobile Internet Creating New Challenges For Carriers
+Traffic Grows Explosively But Not the Revenue Mobile data traffic will increase 1000 times in 10 years
Profit per bit will continuously decrease in the future years
+
Disruptive Transformation
The Changing World of Mobile Internet
Bandwidth Applications
• Higher quality-of-experience
• Higher sessions and session rates
• New monetization models
“Pipe Provider” “Value-Added Provider”
+The Future of Broadband in Malaysia
n How do we close the Digital Gap?
n How do we leverage Broadband to innovate?
n How do we achieve Vision 2020?
+
THANK YOU EMAIL: [email protected] TWITTER: mazlan_abbas FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com/drmazlanabbas LINKEDIN: my.linkedin.com/in/mazlan/ SLIDESHARE: www.slideshare.net/mazlan1