Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd for Henry Schein Inc

Trends impacting dentists and health care

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of

15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most

influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Future of dentistry

For Henry Schein (2008)

500 videos of keynotes

http://www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon

Over 4 million views

Dixon’s Futurist Website

http://www.globalchange.com/

14 million unique visitors.

F ast

U rban

T ribal

U niversal

R adical

E thical

Health and health care needs to

deliver faster

• Cash rich, time poor

• Web world makes us

impatient

• Instant fix for dental

and health problems

• Appointments?

• Total treatment time?

Dental and health care shaped

by emotion

Dentistry is a VERY emotional

business – major opportunity

• 25% of UK adults are

afraid to visit dentist

• 40% who delay visiting

do so out of fear

Passionate about teeth (UK)

• A third of adults say

they are judged by their

smiles

• A third do not like their

teeth

• A third have had teeth

whitening

“Yesterday’s treatments were about

need: tomorrow’s will be about

desire – live fast and stay young”

1 billion

children in

Africa and

Asia need

dental care /

education

Europe

Dying

4 couples

needed to

produce just

one great-

grandchild

75% of all US wealth owned by

those over 65 new teeth

1 million

dental

patients over

90 years old

in Italy by

2026

Most Dominant Dental / Pharma /

Health Factor Will Be Ageing

• 65% health budget

• Rising fast

• But almost all major

diseases are age-related

Can we stop ageing ?

Europeans Want to Look Better

• 51% growth in botox treatment

• 31% growth laser hair removal

• 31% growth in cosmetic surgery enquiries

– (UK 2007 2008)

Permanent Hair Colour

• Adenovirus

• Infected mouse hair cells

• Permanent colour change

Sexual Performance

Brain Faster – and better?

Treatment which restores and

maintains the youthful elasticity of

hardened arteries – and helps

wrinkled skin. Global sales?

Dental Future

• Rebuilding enamel

• Rebuilding gums

• Worries about health

impact of oral bacteria

eg heart, pulmonary

disease, low birth-

weight infants and

premature birth,

osteoporosis,diabetes

Grow New Teeth

• Pigs teeth grown

inside bodies

• Mice grow new

teeth from nerve

cells / gum tissue

i

Successful Heart repair

• Inject bone marrow stem cells after bypass

• Improves heart function up to 85%

Urban

Near-perfect repair of

heart or brain damage

following coronary /

stroke

using adult stem cells

Your

Brain

Can

Repair

Itself

Daily

Negligible senescence is a reality

• Rockfish,

Turtles,

some

Whales

• No signs of

getting old

Tribalism conflicts

Palestinian land

Iraq civil unrest

Kosovo / Bosnia

Northern Ireland

Chechnya

Rwanda / Burundi

Black / White

Tribal

Global instability from growing

gap between rich and poor

High performance organisations

all build stronger tribes

People will always need to belong

Teams

Sense of identity

Every dentist creates own tribe

Treat (old) prevent enhance (young)

• Future of dental practice different tribes

and expectations of performance

Global consolidation of dental

industry - maturing

Pharma

Pipelines

Are Empty • Big pharma = 65% of

R+D global budget

• = GDP of 130 nations

• …but only 26% of

new approvals

• Generics threat

Change in Dental Practice

• Shift from drill and fill of single tooth to whole

mouth assessments

– Teeth cleaning, cancer testing, periodontal

antibiotics, chemical treatment periodontal disease

Growth of Middle Class

• 100m 600m

in India alone

over 20 years

> $6,000 a year income

New Shape of Politics

World view

Systematic

History

Tradition

Left / Right

Old Party Politics

Narrow agenda

Campaign

New causes

Radical

Sometimes irrational

New Issues

Radical

Global Warming - facts

Single Issues

regulation

Funding of

dental care

Embryo use

Patent protection

Synthetic genes

Future Unmet Needs

Who pays? Radical Shifts Above line = health budget / government spending

Number

Affected

Severity

Clinical conditions

Performance / life-enhancement

Trend – line is falling IVF

Serious tooth decay

Cosmetic dentistry

Public

Health

Policy

Memory

Above and Below the Line

Future Medical Needs

Number

Affected

Severity Clinical conditions

Performance / life-enhancement

Trend – line is falling IVF

Serious tooth decay

Cosmetic dentistry

Mainstream Pharma

Large numbers affected

Major morbidity / mortality

Above and Below the Line Today’s luxury is tomorrow’s health need

Number

Affected

Severity Clinical conditions

Performance / life-enhancement

Trend – line is falling

IVF

Mainstream Pharma

Large numbers affected

Major morbidity / mortality

Getting Paid for Good Dentistry

• Expect continued conflict

between what is in best

interests of dental

patients and patterns of

remuneration

• Expect dental activities to

continue to be influenced

by fee structure

Passion to “get a life”

• 10,000 US, Japanese and

UK managers

• Work-life balance is now

first or second most

important factor in looking

for a job

Ethical

Work-life balance is about friends and family

• 6 out of 10 Americans

work for nothing

• Average 200 hours a

year

• 20 billion hours a year

• 4.5% GDP

Volunteering is about…. ?????

• Growth

• Profits

• Shareholder value

Companies talk about Ethical

BUT individuals talk about…

• Own needs

• Family + friends

• Community

• Wider world

Ethical

Combining passions people have,

with your own business objectives

Slides

• www.globalchange.com/ppt/henryschein

• 10 million unique visitors

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of

15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most

influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Future of dentistry

For Henry Schein (2008)

500 videos of keynotes

http://www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon

Over 4 million views

Dixon’s Futurist Website

http://www.globalchange.com/

14 million unique visitors.