future of voice - gotcha!
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Voice Workshop
Gotcha!
8th October 2013Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
[email protected]@martingeddes.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
What could possibly go wrong?
Oct 2013
Lots of things…
Battery life Poor UX
“Which browser tab is ringing” RF coverage/interference Microphones/earpieces/headsets Security Etc.
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
There are trade-offs…
Oct 2013
vs
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Call quality: elephant in the room
US – voice in focus Rural call completion Verizon/VoiceLink
UK – regulatory change New consumer
broadband metrics More than “speed”
EU – major debate “Assured services”
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Gotcha!
Consumerbroadband voice
Not all broadband is created equal…Example: Two different ADSL providers in the same location, same “speed”
Great for voice Poor for voice
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Bufferbloat & Active Queue Management
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
A Recent Bad Skype Experience
A
B C20M/2M Cable broadband 10M/1M ADSL Business LLU
1.8M/448k ADSL – wholesale 20CN
Loss: <0.5%.Delay (one-way): 50ms-60ms, jumping to 500ms for a second or two, then back
Loss: Wandering from a typical 0%-2% up to as high as 48% for a second or two.
Delay: 50-70ms
Loss: 0.1%.Delay: 40ms-50ms
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Different speeds & characteristics
A
B CVERY FAST
& VARIABLE DELAYFAST
& VARIABLE LOSS
SLOW & STATIONARY LOSS/DELAY
Good Experience
Bad ExperienceBad Experience
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013Oct 2013
A
C
SPEED
STATIO
NA
RIT
Y
SLOW FAST
LOW B
Fastest connection had the WORST
Skype experience
HIGH
Determines the chance that applications can adapt to the network
Determines which applications are feasible
Most stationary connection had the BEST Skype
experience
Voice quality depends on more than speed
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013Oct 2013
Gotcha!
Enterprise &Carrier Voice
Does over-provisioning work?
Can we run a “converged” voice and data network?
How to capacity plan the system? How to measure and manage voice quality?
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Other “gotchas”
Assumed substitutability of IP transport Edge/core, first/last 100 kbps, different media (they are not the same!)
Capacity planning “Residual packet service time” problem is repeated service killer
QoS Either uneconomic or ineffective; poor signalling/media interaction
Call admission control Unified Comms is brittle and prone to failure due to lack of CAC
Measurement & management “Jitter”, “bandwidth use” are not direct QoE proxies
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
The biggie: SLA composability
All the individual SLAs were met along the chain…
…but the voice service doesn’t work!
What’s wrong?
We don’t live in TDM land any more!
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Other horrors (or opportunities…)
Ever more NAT/FW/middlebox latency & variability issues NFV/SDN may make things worse…
Internet fragmentation – islands of (non)connectivity IPv6 scaling issues on public Internet + rising routing overheads?
Audio + video processing value chain Noise cancellation + suppression interactions Multi-bearer comms; media processing in the cloud
Ecosystem shift - “climate change” - IT-isation Middle players (i.e. innovative telco suppliers) will get bought out Instability of supplier relationships
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Last (but not least…)
Regulators
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Get in touch
We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more
Oct 2013
[email protected]/disruptivedeanwww.disruptive-analysis.comNewsletter
[email protected]/martingeddeswww.martingeddes.comNewsletter
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013