future projections of recurrent tidal flooding...2015 el nino pattern: 33-200% tidal flood increase...
TRANSCRIPT
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Future Projections of Recurrent Tidal Flooding
NOAA Science DaysMarch 9, 2016
Dr. William Sweet NOAA Oceanographer
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Coastal communities need to know what to expect
Tidal flood projections can assist community planning (e.g., budgeting for short/long term solutions).
Annual tidal-flood projections (this work) recognize:• long trends (linear or accelerating) from local sea level rise• compounding El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns
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+
“Nuisance” Tidal Flood
ing
(Days p
er Year)
Sweet et al. (2014)
Nuisance Tidal Flood Trends: 300-900% increase since 1960
NOAA gauges since 1950 reveal concerning trends (linear and accelerating) in tidal flooding.
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El Niño Pattern: More West & East Coast Tidal Flooding
West Coast: High sea levels for months increase the reach of storms and tides
East Coast:More NE winds, storms and surges
Eastern Region El Niño Impacts &Outlook: October 2015
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2015 El Nino Pattern: 33-200% Tidal Flood Increase Projected
0
5
10
15
20
Nui
sanc
e Ti
dal F
lood
s(D
ays
per Y
ear)
Location 14: Norfolk, VA
Historic
1982/821986/87
1991/92
1997/98 2009/10
0
5
10
15
20
Nui
sanc
e Ti
dal F
lood
s(D
ays
per Y
ear)
Location 14: Norfolk, VA
Historic Poly. (Historic)Trend (Quadratic)
1982/821986/87
1991/92
1997/98 2009/10 2015 Projection
125% increase
2015 Outlook: Number of Days with a Nuisance Tidal FloodBased upon trend (and % increase from El Nino pattern)
Montauk(100%)
Sandy Hook (48%)
Atlantic City (33%)Lewes
(71%)
Baltimore(47%)
Washington D.C.(66%)
Norfolk (125%)
Wilmington(44%)
La Jolla(67%)
San Francisco(75%)
San Diego(44%)
Los Angeles(70%)
Monterey(106%)
Alameda(200%)
Sweet and Marra (2015)
2015 Outlook (May 2015 – April 2016) issued in summer of 2015
2015 Nuisance Tidal Flood Days To Date(May 2015 – Feb 29, 2016)
Below “Trend/El Niño” Projection
Above “Trend/Niño” Projection
All time record
Sweet et al. (In Prep)
All time record (no Trend/ENSO projection)
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• Tidal flooding during the 2015/16 El Niño has already surpassed projections and broke records.
• El Niño will likely become more frequent in the future, compounding impacts (in addition to sea level rise).
• NOAA is advancing a national recurrent-flood information system and local dashboards to:
deliver flood-frequency projections track impact indicators & their frequency changes
to enhance resiliency within coastal communities.
In Summary: