Future research issuesRosa Ruggeri Cannata – Eurostat

Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators17 – 19 November 2010, Moscow

Tendency Surveys terminology

Tendency surveys and seasonal adjustment

Characteristics of tendency surveys– Questions ask managers/householders to eliminate

seasonal effects– Seasonal movements in tendency surveys time series are

not very pronounced

Open debate: seasonal adjustment or just smoothing?

Tendency Surveys terminology

Seasonal adjustment: different methods

tendency surveys time series are stationary Their seasonality is additive Seasonal adjustment methods based on a

decomposition in trend-cycle component and seasonal component can create distortions

It is important to analyse the results of different seasonal adjustment methods

Tendency Surveys terminology

Seasonal adjustment and revisions

European surveys are generally not revised Advantage: data are stable and easier to integrate

econometric models Disadvantage: seasonal adjustment not in line with the

seasonal adjustment of macroeconomic variables

Tendency Surveys terminology

Seasonal adjustment: balances or components

Tendency surveys are usually published as a balance of “positive” minus “negative” assessment

Seasonal adjustment is applied to the balance series The two series of “positive” and “negative” evolution are

however available When the seasonal movements of the two components

differ significantly it could be advisable to seasonal adjust separately the two component series and compare the results of: – first subtract and then seasonal adjust the balances– First seasonal adjust the components and then produce

balances

Tendency Surveys terminology

Alternative quantification methods

Tendency surveys are usually published as a balance of positive minus negative evolution

Several studies on alternative methods did not show any particular advantage in alternative quantification methods

Limit of balances: the weight of “unchanged” answer is not taken no consideration; some information is lost

Dissemination issue: publication of balances plus the “unchanged” time series in order to give the full information to the final user