Future trends for governance:some correlates, additions and

complications

Dr FM OrkinOslo Governance Forum, Session 3D

Voksenasen, 3-5 October 2011

A start: two precepts, jointly true...

• What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?

A start: two precepts, jointly true...

• What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?

• What do those noisy amateurs want now?

...and less cynically expressed

• What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?

• Holding government accountable is not only better for citizens, but makes government more moral and efficient

• What do those noisy amateurs want now

• Civil society will be more effective for developing the capacities and constituencies to engage government, not merely monitor or criticize it

Sarah’s slate of governance trends...

Powerful South

Regional configurations

Global financial volatility

Arab spring

Media

Climate change

Urbanisation

Inequality

Youth

Migration

Transnational crime

Global

Local

Econ

omic

Soci

o-Cu

ltura

l

Slate of governance trends related...

Powerful South

Regional configurations

Global financial volatility

Arab spring

Media

Climate change

Urbanisation

Inequality

Youth

Migration

Transnational crime

Global

Local

Econ

omic

Soci

o-Cu

ltura

l

Marketisedglobalisation

... and some correlates

Powerful South

Regional configurations

Global financial volatility

Arab spring

Media

Climate change

Urbanisation

Inequality

Youth

Migration

Transnational crime

XenophobiaPoverty

Global

Local

Econ

omic

Soci

o-Cu

ltura

l

Popularunrest

Food andwater

Indigenous people

... plus some additions for consideration

Powerful South

Regional configurations

Global financial volatility

Arab spring

Media

Climate change

Urbanisation

Inequality

Youth

Migration

Transnational crime

Xenophobia

Exploitationof women

HIV & AIDSPoverty

Global

Local

Econ

omic

Soci

o-Cu

ltura

l

Popularunrest

Food andwater

Indigenous people

... and some serious complications

Powerful South

Regional configurations

Global financial volatility

Arab spring

Media

Climate change

Urbanisation

Inequality

Youth

Migration

Transnational crime

Xenophobia

Exploitationof women

HIV & AIDSPoverty

Public sector(in)-capacity

Global

Local

Econ

omic

Soci

o-Cu

ltura

l

Macro/microCorruption

Popularunrest

Food andwater

Indigenous people

Some reminders when tackling the issues1. Many of the issues affect governance in the North as well as South2. Appropriate mode of engagement for governance context?

Autocratic → Pre-democratic → Transitional → DemocraticConfront ational → Critical → Cautionary → Constructive

3. Reality check re civil society: flexible, ethical, committed; but also programme-level, uneven quality, un-elected, maybe ephemeral

4. Importance of not bypassing fragile states

5. Advantages of appropriate “mainstreaming” via engagement near or with government: scale, resources, sustainability, legitimacy

6. “Informal” institutions? Maybe need to be reckoned on for interim implementation; but often patrimonial, unfair, unaccountable

7. Participatory implementation is desirable; also non-linear, time-consuming, intricate, contested, and has unintended consequences