Future Waves :

Trends Impacting Student Populations for Next 10 Years

Workshop 2  A/B. 4    Workshop 2  A/B. 4   

Annimacwww.annimac.com.au

ADAPE Australasia National Conference

Charting New Waters 3 October 2004

Speaker

Reminder from this morningReminder from this morning

Rate of Change Rate of Change

• every 15 seconds every 15 seconds == new web site new web site

• every 15 minutes every 15 minutes == new technology new technology

• every 15 days = new product / service

Amount of change in one day,

Grandmother had in one year.

Younger we are - faster our world moves.

Australia’s Age DistributionAustralia’s Age Distribution,, 1866-20421866-2042

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%1

86

6

18

86

19

06

19

21

19

33

19

47

19

61

19

81

20

01

20

21

20

42

Ruthven,Ibis 2003Ruthven,Ibis 2003

65+

55-5960-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

20-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Slightly Increasing Time for EducationSlightly Increasing Time for Education

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1788 1838 1888 1938 1988 2038 2088

Tho

usan

ds o

f Hou

rs

Year born

Leisure Time

Paid Work

Unpaid Work

Education

Travel to Work

Sleep

46%

44%

43%

32%29%

27%23%

38 years

50 years

74 years

120 ? years

Ruthven,Ibis 2003Ruthven,Ibis 2003Ruthven,Ibis 2003Ruthven,Ibis 2003

Australia’s Population 1866 - 2051Australia’s Population 1866 - 2051

0

10

20

30 0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-34

45-54

55-59

60-64

65+

0-4 16.5 14.2 11.7 11.1 8.6 10.1 10.6 7.6 6.5 5.70 5.30

5-9 12.5 12.5 11.2 11 9.5 8 10 8.6 6.8 5.80 5.40

10-14 9.8 11.1 10.6 9.8 9.5 7.1 9.7 8.9 6.9 5.90 5.50

15-19 7.7 10.2 10.1 8.3 9.3 7.7 7.7 8.6 7.0 6.00 5.70

20-24 10.1 10.2 9.7 8.3 8.8 8.1 6.6 8.6 7.1 6.30 6.00

25-34 16.9 15.7 16.2 16.8 15.4 15.8 13.2 16.3 15.1 13.20 12.10

45-54 7.1 8 8.6 9.9 11.2 11.7 11.7 10.2 13.60 13.40 12.50

55-59 2 2.7 3.5 4 3.9 5.2 4.4 5 5.20 6.40 6.00

60-64 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.4 4.3 3.8 4.1 4.20 6.20 5.80

65+ 4.8 2.7 3.2 4.6 6.5 8.1 8.5 9.8 12.40 15.80 23.40

1866 1886 1906 1921 1933 1947 1961 1981 2001 2021 2042

Source: ABS

Population Distribution 2001 – 2021 Population Distribution 2001 – 2021 AustraliaAustralia

AgeAge 20012001 20212021

0-40-4 6.5 %6.5 % 5.8 %5.8 %

5-95-9 6.96.9 5.95.9

10-1410-14 6.96.9 5.95.9

15-1915-19 7.07.0 6.06.0

20-2420-24 7.17.1 6.36.3

25-3425-34 15.115.1 13.213.2

35-4435-44 15.115.1 15.115.1

45-5445-54 13.613.6 13.413.4

55-5955-59 5.25.2 6.46.4

60-6460-64 4.24.2 6.26.2

65+65+ 12.412.4 15.815.8Source: ABS

Population Projections to 2051 Population Projections to 2051 AustraliaAustralia

Capital CitiesCapital Cities Total Total

19991999 12.11 million 17.20 million 12.11 million 17.20 million

20512051 19.0 25.41 19.0 25.41

ABS 2002ABS 2002

Age :Age : % Pop :% Pop : 2001 :2001 : 2021 :2021 :

15-1915-19 6.0 6.0 1.03 m1.03 m 1.53 m1.53 m

20-2420-24 6.3 6.3 1.08 m1.08 m 1.60 m1.60 m

Student Age NumbersStudent Age Numbers Australia 2001 – 2021Australia 2001 – 2021Student Age NumbersStudent Age Numbers Australia 2001 – 2021Australia 2001 – 2021

Changing Nature of ChangeChanging Nature of Change

2020thth Century Century : : trackable demographicstrackable demographics

sstatistics useful predictors of demographic trendstatistics useful predictors of demographic trends

quantitative info useful for future planningquantitative info useful for future planning

linear projections reliablelinear projections reliable

stats accurately gatheredstats accurately gathered

2121stst Century Century : fast shifting demographics: fast shifting demographics

sstatistics useful historical information tatistics useful historical information

linear projections often misleadinglinear projections often misleading

useful predictors increasingly qualitativeuseful predictors increasingly qualitative

intuitive reasoning necessaryintuitive reasoning necessary

Shifting Student TrendsShifting Student Trends

2020thth Century : Century :

mono cultural normsmono cultural norms

single career pathsingle career path

long term life viewlong term life view

stable relationshipsstable relationships

professions respectedprofessions respected

2121stst Century : Century :

multi cultural diversity multi cultural diversity

no career pathno career path

immediacyimmediacy

temporary relationshipstemporary relationships

no deference, disreputeno deference, disrepute

Shifting student trends Shifting student trends

2020thth Century : Century :

compliant to ed systemcompliant to ed system

academia establishmentacademia establishment

value ed for contentvalue ed for content

Uni ed prestigiousUni ed prestigious

VET lower statusVET lower status

economic rationalismeconomic rationalism

2121stst Century : Century :

charting own educationcharting own education

www establishmentwww establishment

value ed as ticketvalue ed as ticket

Uni ed out of touchUni ed out of touch

VET skills valuedVET skills valued

coopitalismcoopitalism

Young Understand Technology Drives Young Understand Technology Drives Change Change

They know that in 2020

70 % of job types do not exist now

because

80% of technology is not invented yet.

Does your educational institution ?

GenerationsGenerations

Baby Boomers

b 1945 – 60 age 45 - 60 fewer females than males

Generation X 1960 – 75 30 - 45 largest number in population

DotComs 1975 – 90 15 – 30 first wired gen

Ferals 1990 – 05 0 - 15 smallest number - ½ of GenX

TrendsTrends BABY BOOMERS BABY BOOMERS 45 - 6045 - 60

Married or divorced

Empty nesters

Retired or p-t work

Identity from job

Material status

Downsizing their lives

Set relationships

Sense of community

Travellers, homebodies

Medium term planners

Seek new IF safe experiences

Security conscious

Health conscious

Defer to authorityDefer to authority

Love & hate changeLove & hate change

TrendsTrends GEN X ERS GEN X ERS 30 - 4530 - 45

SingleSingle

ChildlessChildless

I.d. ephemeral, I.d. ephemeral, changing changing

Global i.d., no Global i.d., no commitmentcommitment

Short term planners Short term planners

Risk takers, fast Risk takers, fast decisionsdecisions

Mobile, Mobile, nfa, renters , renters

Varied lifestyles, wired Varied lifestyles, wired

Multi careers, SOHOMulti careers, SOHO

Net DatingNet Dating

Materialism assumed Materialism assumed

Environmental valuesEnvironmental values

Personal journeyPersonal journey

Defer to heroesDefer to heroes

Expect, accept changeExpect, accept change

TrendsTrends DOTCOMS DOTCOMS 15 - 3015 - 30

Parental homeParental home

Global I.d. Global I.d.

No careers, own pathNo careers, own path

I.d. from activityI.d. from activity

Group socialisingGroup socialising

Temporary pairingTemporary pairing

WiredWired

Net relationships Net relationships

ImmediacyImmediacy

Multi channeled, multi Multi channeled, multi actions actions

Non consumers Non consumers

Planetary group Planetary group missionmission

Temporary deferenceTemporary deference

Need & welcome Need & welcome changechange

TrendsTrends FERALS FERALS 0 - 150 - 15

Parental home Parental home No patternsNo patterns Unlimited channelsUnlimited channels Future jobs Future jobs

unimportantunimportant Global limitless Global limitless

relationshipsrelationships Momentary Momentary

relationshipsrelationships Global i.d. & Global i.d. &

commitment commitment

Very immediate & long Very immediate & long

term viewterm view I.d. from self valuesI.d. from self values Non consumers, global Non consumers, global

valuesvalues Wired into global villageWired into global village Planetary mission, self & Planetary mission, self &

groupgroup No deference, respect per No deference, respect per

needneed Live change, ignore all Live change, ignore all

barriersbarriers

SUMMARYSUMMARY Future Waves of StudentsFuture Waves of Students

Increasing rate of change

Technology drives all change

Younger exponentially faster

Huge generational differences

As global world shrinks :

gain more knowledge

more options

greater passion

responsibility with dignity.

Thank youThank you www.annimac.com.au www.annimac.com.au