Futuretrack 2005 and 2006

Researching the changing graduate labour market:

a longitudinal study

Kate Purcell

HECSU Changing Student Choices conference, Manchester University, 12 July 2006

This presentation

• The HECSU Career-making Programme -higher education, career decision-making, career information and employment outcomes

•Futuretrack 2006: the Core study

•Futuretrack 2005: a new kind of pilot study

Considerations underlying the design of the core study: it must be..

• comprehensive and authoritative, covering full spectrum of UK ‘Mass HE’;

• flexible enough to accommodate changes; • build upon existing knowledge;• facilitate a focus upon subgroups of interest;• generate information not just on those who

succeed, but on those who drop out/defer entry;• sufficiently large to allow for longitudinal

robustness despite the inevitability of sample erosion.

• Initial population census with targeted follow-up of under-represented groups.

• Reliance exclusively on web-based surveys.• Contact with HEIs only for ‘rebalancing’. • Substantial resources devoted to:

• retention of sample members• co-ordination across HECSU wider research

programme• dissemination of research findings.

• Collaboration with UCAS, HESA and Funding Councils to track students - and data-linking where feasible.

• Longitudinal pilot, cognitive testing, consultative approach to identification of priorities at each sweep.

The proposed approach

Design for feasibility

• Futuretrack 2005 : a longitudinal pilot– to investigate research options– to explore the practicalities of potential sampling and access

strategies – to develop a well-researched and realistic budget for the

longitudinal study

Futuretrack 2005 non-response investigation

Cognitive testing workshops with 2006 UCAS applicants

– To refine the questionnaire design– To test for (and take account of) variability in the target

population

May/June

Main study

Wave 3

2005

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Pilot study

Wave 1

Pilot study

Wave 2

Pilot study

Wave 3

Pilot study

Wave 4

Sept/Oct

Sept/Oct June June

Main study

Wave 1

20

06 20

07

Main study

Wave 2

June June

Main study

Wave 4

December

The link between the Pilot Study and the Core Study 2005 – 2012

…some findings from Futuretrack 2005

A comparison of survey respondents and non-respondents SURVEY

RESPONDENTS

(%)

NON – RESPONDENTS

(%)

GENDER FEMALE 59.6 52.4

UNDER 21 90.5 91.5

21 TO 24 3.9 4.7

AGE

25 AND OVER 5.5 3.8

ORIGIN UK STUDENTS 98.2 97.3

ASIAN 9.9 10.8

BLACK 5.6 3.2

MIXED 2.7 2.6

OTHER 1.1 0.9

ETHNIC

GROUP

WHITE 80.6 82.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

friends were doing so

better than being unemployed

s.b. else encouraged / expected

school/college career adviser expected/encouraged

teachers expected/encouraged

parent expected/encouraged

other

wanted to be a student

wasnt sure what to do next

normal thing to do for somebody like me

realise my potential

enable me to get better job

study particular subject

part of my long-term career plans

All reasons

Main reason

2005 applicants’ reasons for applying for HE course

2005 UCAS applicants’ reasons for choice of course

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

It was available to me through Clearing

I was advised that the course would beappropriate for me

Other

I think it will lead to further educationalopportunities

I think it will lead to good employmentopportunities in gen

I need to complete this course to enter aparticular profess

I am interested in the content of the course andthink I wil

I already enjoyed studying thesubject(s)/topic(s)

All reasons

Main reason

UCAS 2005 applicants’ reasons for choosing course, by gender

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

It was available to me through Clearing

Other

I was advised that the course would beappropriate for me

I think it will lead to further educationalopportunities

I think it will lead to good employmentopportunities in general

I need to complete this course to enter aparticular profession

I am interested in the content of the course andthink I will enjoy it

I already enjoyed studying thesubject(s)/topic(s)

FemaleMale

Influences on choice of course

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Personal reasons (e.g. friends already there)

It w as the best (or only) offer of a place I received

School/college careers adviser

Location, because I could continue to live at home

Students already studying at that institution/course

Friends

The research reputation of the university or department

Location, because I w anted to study aw ay from home

‘Good Universities’ Guide/League Tables

The university/college prospectus or w eb-site

Parents/partners/other family members

Location - because it is an attractive or interesting place

The teaching reputation of the university or department

Reputation of the institution generally

It offered the particular course I w anted

Visit to institution

Reasons to study by parental qualification

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

My parents expected/encouraged me to apply

It is the normal thing to do for somebody like me

Some/all of my friends were doing so

I wanted to be a student

I wanted to study the particular subject/course

I wasn't sure what to do next and it gave me more options

As part of my longer-term career plans

To enable me to get a better job than if I did not do so

I wanted to realise my potential

Somebody else encouraged me to apply

Other

I thought it would be better than being unemployed

My teachers expected/encouraged me to apply

My school/college careers adviser expected/encouraged me to

none of the parents

one of the parents

both parents

Expectation to undertake paid work

Socio-economic background Expectation of

significant debts

… during vacation

… during term-time

… not at all

Higher managerial and professional occupations

55.2 86.4 50.4 3.7

Intermediate occupations

57.0 83.5 55.2 5.6

Lower managerial and professional occupations

61.9 82.6 57.6 4.5

Lower supervisory and technical occupations

64.9 76.1 73.5 4.4

Routine occupations 74.8 76.4 66.9 2.4 Semi-routine occupations

56.6 75.8 66.4 5.7

Small employers and own account workers

59.1 80.4 62.6 3.7

Unknown 57.8 74.2 58.0 7.9 TOTAL 59.0 80.7 57.9 5.1 Source: Futuretrack 2005, weighted data.

2005 UCAS applicants’ expectations of debts and paid work and study

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Financial help from my employer

Hardship or access funds

Don’t know

Educational subsidy

Other

Other forms of borrowing

University/college grant/ bursary

Working during study

Personal savings

Repayable borrowing from family/partner

Local Education Authority

Student loan

Nonrepayable contributions by family/partner

Living Costs

Tuition Fees

Plans to fund higher education

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100

%

Students in higher education should contribute to its cost ifthey can afford to

One of the main benefits of higher education is theopportunity for extra-curricular activities

All universities should charge the same annual fees,regardless of location or course

For most good jobs a degree is essential

Student loans are a good idea

Student debts place unreasonable burdens on graduates

Being a higher education student will be intellectuallychallenging

Education is valuable in its own right, not just as preparationfor employment

Being a higher education student provides opportunities forpersonal growth and independence

A higher education qualification is a good investment

Strongly agree Agree Not sure Disagree Strongly disagree

2005 HE applicants’ views about HE ‘hot topics’

‘Its always been my ambition to go to university, and so I was never in any doubt about applying to enter higher education when I finished secondary education.’

‘I am going to be a doctor.’

‘I wanted to be able to develop and challenge myself as a person, get out of my own comfort zone and little bubble!’

‘I wanted to live away from home, meet new people & gain independence.’

‘I love the subject, and continuing study of it would be an enjoyable learning experience.’

‘I had worked with children as an LSA for the last 10 years, wanted to take it to the next level. It is the right time as my children older and more independent.’

‘I'm doing that for me and my daughter to make our future certain and better. We living apart because I'm divorced and she lives with her mum.’

‘I want to get a degree. Make my family and myself proud of me!’

‘To change the loop that everyone gets stuck in from a my area; they end up teen moms or working deadbeat jobs in Sainsburys. I knew I was better than that and didn’t want to end up like my parents. I wanted to change the mould and have a better future to look forward to.’

‘To fulfil a lifelong ambition - to prove to myself that I could do it (having worked alongside many younger people with better academic qualifications than me.) It was always destined to b my project for my retirement!’

Futuretrack 2005 and 2006

For further details about the survey and related research see:

www.hecsu.ac.uk

www.warwick.ac.uk/go/glmf

or contact

Kate.Purcell@warwick.ac.uk

or

Peter.Elias@warwick.ac.uk