fy 2012 - 2014 commuter connections term analysis results tbp technical committee december 5, 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
FY 2012 - 2014Commuter Connections TERM Analysis
Results
TBP Technical CommitteeDecember 5, 2014
ITEM #8
![Page 2: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
BY 2040, IT IS PREDICTED THAT THERE WILL BE 4 MILLION MORE TRIPS EACH DAY IN THE REGION -- A 24% INCREASE OVER TODAY
The TPB is the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the region
Regional Growth Projections
Today:5.3 million residents 2.7 million workers
![Page 3: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Daily Travel – Trips By Mode
![Page 4: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Daily Travel – Commute Trips By Mode
![Page 5: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Agree to how TDM programs can assist the region to meet congestion reduction and air quality goals. TeamState Departments of TransportationBusinesses/Federal AgenciesLocal governments Transportation Management Associations Transit operatorsVanpool providersCarshare/Bikeshare Services
Develop/Implement programs that will contribute to regional transportation and emission impacts.
Regional Collaboration
![Page 6: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
» Evaluation Methodology “Blueprint”» Data Collection» Reports» Share Results » Incorporate into Regional Planning Process
TERM Evaluation Cycle
![Page 7: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Objective of Evaluation
Apply methodology outlined in Evaluation Framework to:
Estimate effectiveness of Commuter Connections TERMs
Telework Guaranteed Ride Home Employer Outreach Mass Marketing
Document results of Commuter Operations Center
Adjust impacts for overlap among programs
![Page 8: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Performance Continuum
Awareness Participation Utilization Impacts and and and Attitudes Satisfaction Influence
Awareness – modes/programs Attitudes – willing to try modes
Participation – services used Satisfaction – with programs
Utilization – mode / travel changes Influences – motivations for change
Impacts of change (travel / AQ / energy)
![Page 9: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Impact Calculation Approach
Impact calculation approach uses series of “multiplier” factors, applied to user population
Target / User Population e.g. GRH registrants
Vehicle trips reduced by mode changes
VMT reduced bymode changes
Emissions reduced
“Placements”Users with mode change
X
Placement rate =
X
“Vehicle trip reduction” factor =
X
travel distance =
X
Emission factors =
COG tracking
Factors derived from
users surveys
COG factors
![Page 10: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Impacts for All TERMs + COC (Jul 2011 – Jun 2014)
Comparison of collective goals against collective impacts, including Commuter Operations Center
Goal Impact Net
Trips reduced 109,594 131,830 22,236 +20%
VMT reduced 2,162,400 2,473,326 310,926+14%
NOx reduced 1.098 T 1.061 T (0.037) T - 3%
VOC reduced 0.654 T 0.533 T (0.121) T -19%
Met vehicle trip and VMT goals
Shortfall in emission goals due to reduced emission factors for 2015 (cleaner cars) and shift to MOVES emission model
![Page 11: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The four TERMs met the collective goals for both vehicle trips (+10%) and VMT reduced (+6%)
CC programs overall (TERMs + COC)
exceeded the VT reduction goal (+20%) and VMT goal (+14%)
TERMs did not meet emissions goals, but this was due to a change in the emission model (MOVES) and reductions in the 2014 emission factors, compared to the factors used when the goals were established in 2005
TERM Analysis Observations
![Page 12: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
45,538
96,333
119,190 117,787125,661
131,830Daily Vehicle Trips Reduced
Commuter ConnectionsVehicle Trip Reduction – 1999 to 2014
![Page 13: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
800,158
1,774,670
2,220,582
2,455,022 2,418,264 2,473,326Daily VMT Reduced
Commuter ConnectionsVMT Reduction – 1999 to 2014
![Page 14: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1.244
2.340
1.705
1.139
0.8701.061
Daily tons NOx Reduced
Commuter Connections NOx Reduced (daily tons) – 1999 to 2014
![Page 15: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.657
1.164
0.845
0.6390.538 0.533
Daily tons VOC Reduced
Commuter Connections VOC Reduced (daily tons) – 1999 through 2014
![Page 16: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
2008 2011 20140.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
7.407.03
11.75Annual tons PM 2.5 Reduced
PM 2.5 Reduced (annual tons) – 2008 to 2014Commuter Connections TERMs + Commuter Operations Center
![Page 17: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
2008 2011 20140.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00275.0
245.0
280.0
Annual tons PM 2.5 Precursor NOx Reduced
Precursor NOx Reduced (annual tons) – 2008 to 2014Commuter Connections TERMs + Commuter Operations Center
![Page 18: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2008 2011 20140
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000 291,608282,244
261,497
Annual tons CO2 – Greenhouse Gases Reduced
CO2 Reduced (annual tons) – 2008 to 2014Commuter Connections TERMs + Commuter Operations Center
![Page 19: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Next Steps
• Report Endorsement• Report Publication and Release• Program Cost Effectiveness Calculation• Integrate results into regional air quality
conformity determination and Congestion Management Process
![Page 20: FY 2012 - 2014 Commuter Connections TERM Analysis Results TBP Technical Committee December 5, 2014 ITEM #8](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f175503460f94c2e805/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Questions?Nicholas Ramfos
Director, Alternative Commute ProgramsMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments