G228: South Asian Politics

Matthew C.J. Rudolph, Ph.D.

Phud. Bard’s pictorial scroll. c. 1900. N. India.

Indo-US Relations and South AsiaCold War

• US allied to Pakistan• India allied to the Soviet Union

After the Cold War• US pulls out of Afghanistan and Pakistan• India lost strategically; approaches the US• US: “Stop, roll back, and eliminate nukes”

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Kashmir: Still the Crux of the Rivalry?

• Kashmir has been the crux of Indo-Pakistani rivalry since 1947

Siachen Glacier – 17,000 to 19,000 ft

Wagah border post, evening closing ceremonies

The Importance of Kashmir

• The main point of contention between India and Pakistan.• 3 wars: 1947, 1965, 1999 over Kashmir. (ongoing

skirmishes)• Insurgency since 1989 – death of 35,000-60,000

Kashmir Dispute• Kashmir dispute dates back to 1947

Partition of India– Pakistan claims Kashmir because of Muslim

majority population– India claims Kashmir as part of multi-

religious, multi-ethnic nation• First India-Pakistan war fought over

Kashmir (1947-48)• Ceasefire line established following war, UN

monitoring• 1965 India-Pakistan war• After 1971 Bangladesh war, Line of Control

re-established• Major insurgency after 1989• 1999 Kargil war• 2003-04 Peace Talks• 2002 and 2008 state elections

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Origin of the Conflict

• 1941 – Muslim Nationalist movement reached its peak with the Urban professional/Elite Muslims demand for independence based on Muslim symbols. (Muslim League) • 1947 –British exit leaving behind two nations, India and Pakistan, and a disputed territory of Kashmir.

The Design of the Partition

• Muslim Majority Areas - 1909 • Elite Choice• Feasibility

Kashmir: Time Line of Critical Events

• 1946 election – Muslim League wins in Muslim Majority Area; Pakistan and India independence plans are announced; Kashmir announces a separate state. Riots in the country.

• August 1947 – British departure – three countries.

• October 1947 - Armed Muslim Tribes from Pakistan enter Kashmir. (Supported by the Pakistani military).

• Mah. Hari Singh and Sheikh Abdullah ask Nehru for Military Assist.

• Deal based on Accession, Autonomy, Plebiscite

• Article 370: Employment, Land.• 1948 - Ceasefire lines established (UN).

Kashmir: Time Line of Critical Events

• 1963 – Askai Chin (China)• 1965 – India-Pakistan War (Nuclearizing India)

• 1971 - Line of Control (Bhutto/I.Gandhi)

• 1989 – Insurgency and Violence begins

• 1999 – Kargil War (Nuclear Nations)

Kashmir Divided

Pakistani Kashmir

• Azad Kashmir- Same issues as rest of Pakistan.

• Northern Kashmir- Tribal and chiefs.- Local Bazaar/Tribal Economy- Low rates of literacy (12%)

• Hub for anti-India jihadi groups.- Earthquake made these groups visible

Indian Kashmir – Religious Demography and Population Density

• The Valley: Predominantly Muslim; 1990 exodus on Hindus; Srinagar • Jammu: Predominantly Hindus and Sikhs; Jammu• Ladhakh: 50% Buddhists, Muslims – 49 percent (Shia majority); Leh

Controlled Area Population Hindus Muslims Buddhists Others

India Jammu 3 million 67% 30% - 3%

The Valley 4 million 4% 95% -

Ladakh .25 million

- 49% 50% 1%

Pakistan N. Areas .9 - 99% - -

Azad Kashmir

.26 - 99% - -

China Aksai Chin ? - - - -

Kashmir: Control and Population Distribution

Causes of Conflict I: External Intrusion

• 1979-1988 - Pakistan launched a proxy war for US and Saudi Arabia during Afghan’s Soviet era (1978-1988) producing several jihadi groups targeting the “godless” Soviet Union and the Shias.

• 1988 - Kashmir became the new front for Jihad and Hindus the new infidels.

• India deployed more troops to Kashmir in the 1990’s to “fight fire with fire.”

Associated Radical Jihadi Groups from Pakistan

• Lashkar e-Toiba (LeT; 1980) • Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM; 2000)• Hizbul Mujahideen (HUM) • Jamaat Ul- Mujahideen (JuM)• Harkat-ul- Ansar (HUA) • Jammu and Kashmir Lib. Front (JKLF; 1964;1988)

Domestic Political Incentives for Conflict

• 1947-1964: Nehru period – National Conference (NC) and the Congress have a deal which sometimes included Sheikh Abdullah.

• During this period. India tries to constitutionally extend itself into Kashmir.

• Sheikh Abdullah in and out of jail during this time. NC stays in powers.

• 1966-1975 – Abdullah and Gandhi accord. National Conference in power marginalizing other groups.

• Polarization of other religious groups as well other Muslim opposition within NC and without. (Language and religious symbols.)

• 1975- Indira Gandhi Emergency• NC part of the opposition to the Emergency

in 1979No Insurgency

Domestic Political Incentives for Conflict II

• IG returns in 1980s – centralizes power. • Attempts to oust Farooq Abdullah.• Kashmiri Muslim backlash at undemocratic moves by opening

doors to external insurgents.

• Rise of BJP in the 1980s. (Hindu backlash and Congress).• J&K National Panther Party (Hindu/Kashmir – 1950).

• Ladhakh Union Front Territory (led by LBA 1989) 2002. (Buddhist Backlash)

• Rising tensions due to conversions and desecration claims.

• Increasing attacks on each other by the youth starting in 1989 onwards.

• 1999 election – 28% - Conference backed by the BJP govt. Alliance. (Hindu/Muslim Cooperation; excluding the separatist groups)

• 2002 – Pakistan promises to withdraw support for Sunni radical groups

• 2004 election – 46% - Peoples Democratic Party and Congress alliance. (Hindu/Muslim/Buddhist Cooperation)

Other Points of Contention

• Military presence, “occupation,” and civil military relations.

– 120,000 to 200,000 personnel.

• Military Economy• Military-civil relations• Development of the region.

– Water sharing with Pakistan– Baglihar/Kashmir Dam

Associated Separatist Groups

• All Party Hurriyat Conference umbrella organization• Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front

1964; 1988; 1996

• Pakistan’s historical perspective- Inherent Part of Pakistan- incomplete partition- China’s support (domestic reasons)

• Indian’s historical perspective. - Secularism offered them a place- Indian Muslims

(140 mil vs Kashmiri 8mil)- Setting precedence for ethnic groups - Kashmiriyat

• Recent Resource Value- Crossroads for rivers emerging from Himalaya

Viability of Independent Kashmir

After Mumbai “26-11”:Will India & Pakistan Fight Another War?

• Conventional wars

–1947-48 First Kashmir war–1962 Sino-Indian border war–1965 Rann of Kutch/Kashmir

war–1971 E. Pakistan/Bangladesh

war advent of mutual nuclear

capabilities• Two serious crises

–1986-87 Brasstacks crisis–1990 Kashmir crisis

• 1999 limited war in Kargil• Continued fighting in Kashmir• 2002 military standoff• 2003-04 Peace Talks• 2008 Mumbai Attacks

U.S. Policy Challenges• Balance of interests dilemma

– U.S. interests are different, less intense and more sporadic than those of local actors.

• Serves to limit U.S. influence

• Regional security vs. counterterrorism– Solve Kashmir dispute or counter terrorists?

• War prevention vs. nonproliferation– Prevent nuclear states from going to war, or prevent war-

prone states from going nuclear?– Efforts to solve regional problems might create

undesirable precedents• e.g., technical assistance for C3

• Security assistance dilemma– U.S. efforts to increase one country’s security might

increase other side’s insecurity.• e.g., missile defenses

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S.P. Mukherjee, Iconic Antidote and Progenitor:Kashmir, Leadership Lineage and the BJP in Crisis

Shyama Prasad Mukherjee1901-1953

S.P. Mukherjee, Iconic Antidote and Progenitor:

Kashmir, Leadership Lineage and the BJP in Crisis

Tripolia Bazaar, JaipurWhere Mukherjee made the

“Ek Nishan, Ek Pradhan, Ek Vidhan” speech

BJP and its Predecessors' Electoral Performance: General Elections 1951-2004

0100200300400500

Year

Parli

amen

tary

Se

ats

Congress BJP and its Predecessors

BJP HQ Delhi 2003: Mukherjee Portrait in Rear Dpty. PM Advani and BJP Gen. Sec. Naidu

Ek Vidhan, Ek Nishan, Ek PradhanOne Constitution, One Flag, One Prime Minister

Jammu and Kashmir Flag

The Two PMs:Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah

Jammu and Kashmir

Deccan HeraldWednesday, June 24, 1953

S. P. Mookerjee Is Dead

NEW DELHI, June 23 Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee, 52-year-old leader of the All India Bharatiya Jan Sangh and former Minister of the Central Government, passed away in the early hours of today at Srinagar. Dr. Mookerjee, who was under detention for entering the Kashmir State without permit, died of heart attack at 3.40 a.m. in the nursing home of the State Hospital.

Questions