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John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Post-war International System,

International Security, vol. 10, no. 4, 1986, pp. 99-142

The Cold War is not commonly an era that is characterised as peaceful, Gaddis states, however that the form

of stability experienced within the international system during this time can be viewed as an abstract form of

peace. He looks at what defines an international system- interconnectedness and a difference between the

collective behaviour of the system as a whole and the priorities of the individual units that make it up. Gaddis

states that the Cold War environment meets both of these pre requisites. Systems theory provides a basis for

differentiating between stable and unstable political configurations within the international system. The system

must retain all of its essential characteristics for stability to be possible, there cannot be a single dominant state

nor can large scale war occur. A characteristic of this system, according to systems theory, is its capacity for

self-regulation. Self-regulating mechanisms are most likely to function, in turn, when there exists some

fundamental agreement among major states within the system on the objectives they are seeking to uphold by

participating in it, when the structure of the system reflects the way in which power is distributed among its

respective members, and when agreed-upon procedures exist for resolving differences among them.

The Structural Elements of Stability

BipolarityGaddis acknowledges that bipolarity may seem in theory, like an unstable way to organise world politics.

However, there are certain structural elements present in the Cold War that were not in the multipolar

international systems that have preceded it. 1) The post war bipolar system realistically reflected where military

power resided at the end of World War II and has so for 40 years. A significant difference to the post war

settlement of WWI, which did not acknowledge the interests of Russia and Germany. 2) The post-1945 bipolar

structure involves incredibly high stakes, which according to Gaddis, induces a sense of caution and restraint

in leaders, states therefore do not require sophisticated leadership to maintain it. 3) A bipolar structure allows

alliances to be more stable due to simplicity. As the Soviet Union and the United States are each others sole

rival and since alliances are borne out of insecurity, there is not a lot of difficulty in maintaining their alliances.

4) A basic alliance system provides stability, this stability means that alliance defections are tolerated.

Independence not Interdependence

Certain aspects of the Soviet- American relationship enabled stability. Despite being extensively involved with

the rest of the world, the relationship between the United States and Russia during the Cold War has been one

of mutual independence. Gaddis notes that their geographical remoteness from each other has influenced this.

Both states were particularly economically independent, this self-sufficiency being an element of maintaining

stability. Gaddis states that the US and Soviet lack of dependency disproves the argument that

interconnectedness promotes stability.

Domestic Influences

The domestic structures of the Soviet Union and the United States has shaped their behaviour toward one

another. Gaddis argues that the structure of American capitalism does not involve aggressive expansionistaims, nor is it predicated on the inevitability of war. The United States rather employed the open door policy

which attempted to avoidmilitary confrontations yet extend the American system throughout the world without

engaging in traditional colonialism. George F. Kennans famous long telegram has influenced the US

approach to the USSR, his argument that the Soviets suspicion and paranoia stems from weakness rather than

strength encouraged the theory that the Kremlin was unlikely to actually initiate military action. Gaddis notes,

that during this period the US recognized a distinction between hostility from the Soviet Union and the

probability of going to war. The domestic structure of both states, according to Gaddis reveals that there no

inclination from both sides to risk war.

Nuclear WeaponsThe obvious caution from both the United States and the Soviet Union in regards to risking war cannot be

explained by their pacific dispositions, nor to any variations in leadership, or hesitancy due to ruin caused bythe previous World Wars. Gaddis attributes this restraint to the existence of nuclear weapons. He also

highlights the fact that there is direct evidence of what WMDs can do when used against human beings which

altered individuals perception of war, the optimism that had historically accompanied war replaced with

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pessimism due to the inclusion of the atomic bomb. Nuclear weapons have resulted in Nuclear Deterrence

which has had a stabilizing effect on the post war international system.

The Reconnaissance Revolution

The development of the reconnaissance satellite allowed, according to Gaddis, for stability to occur throughout

the Cold War and enabled the prevention of Total War. This revolution in technology has given the United

States and Soviet Union the ability to evaluate each others capabilitiesto an unprecedented degree. Gaddisalso highlights the importance of the fact that both competing powers allowed Reconnaissance Satellites to

pass over their territories. This implicit mutual agreement enabled the Americans and the Soviets to have a far

more accurate view of the others military capabilities and, to some degree, economic capabilities as well. It

also altered the possibility of a surprise attack, although not eliminated, unexpected assaults were far less

likely. This reduced the Soviet Unions geographical superiority, evening out the difference between them and

the US. The reconnaissance revolution most importantly influenced the structural stability of the bipolar system

as it minimised deception whilst increasing compliance.

Ideological Moderation

Gaddis states that although ideology was a determinant of the conflict between the United States and Soviet

Union, the moderation of ideology in order to maintain stability overcame this rivalry. This reprioritisationoccurred due to the recognition from Soviet leaders that war would not advance the cause of revolution. The

reasons for this shift of position can be attributed to the bipolar nature of the post war international system and

the fact that it legitimised the Soviet Union as a great global power. This change can also be attributed to the

proliferation of nuclear capabilities on both sides as it confirmed that there would be no victors at all, whether

capitalist or communist. Without the moderation of ideological objectives, Gaddis notes that the stability that

characterized great power relations since the end of World War II could not have been possible.

Rules of the superpower gameGaddis uses game theory to explain how order was maintained within the Cold War period without an

overarching, superior authority. Game theory argues that order evolves from a mutual agreement on a set of

"rules" defining the range of behaviour each side anticipates from the other. The assumption is that the

particular "game" being played promises sufficient advantages to each of its "players" to outweigh whatevermight be obtained by trying to upset it; rivalries can be pursued within an orderly framework, even in the

absence of a referee. These "rules" were implicit within the post war superpower relationship. Gaddis identified

several of these rules that both superpowers respected which in turn enabled stability.1) Respect for spheres

of influence. 2) Avoidance of direct military confrontation. 3) Use of nuclear weapons only as an ultimate

resort. 4) Preference for predictable anomaly over unpredictable rationality. (An unwillingness on the part of

the superpowers to trade familiarity for unpredictability) 5) Do not seek to undermine the other sides

leadership.