game 3 - ukbgf · robin makes a second anchor so might have aspirations for a backgame. trouble is...
TRANSCRIPT
Game 3
11 point match, Score is robin swaffield: 6, andy darby: 0
With a significant points difference in the match, both players will be looking to alter their checker play and cube actions. Andy should be playing for more gammonish positions and looking to send the cube over early at the hint of a gammon. Robin, on the other hand will be making gammon-safe moves such as making an advanced anchor a priority and will be wary of doubling in volatile positions when a recube to 4 would be a distinct possibility.
41: 13/9 6/5
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:41:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=167-167
1. Book1 24/23 13/9 eq: +0.191
Player: Opponent:
49.77% (G:13.75% B:0.55%) 50.23% (G:13.30% B:0.56%)
2. Book1 13/9 6/5 eq: +0.167 (-0.024)
Player: Opponent:
49.20% (G:13.72% B:0.56%) 50.80% (G:14.34% B:0.90%)
With a 21, the slot is absolutely correct. The 41 slot does not create more gammons than the split (13.72 cf 13.75%) and loses more games. However I cannot fault Andy here and I would make the same play. The games that follow can lead to more volatility (and in my opinion more interest) so the scope for Robin to make a big error, especially with the cube is increased
52: 24/22 13/8
XGID=-b----E-C---dE--ac-da---B-:0:0:1:52:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=167-162
1. 4-ply 24/22 13/8 eq: -0.496
Player: Opponent:
43.23% (G:10.90% B:0.50%) 56.77% (G:17.80% B:0.73%)
It can be counterintuitive but to play safer overall is to split early in a game to maximise the chance of getting an advanced anchor, despite the risk of getting blown away by a lucky blitz. With the lopsided score this is close to a double after one roll each and no contact! (29 millipoint error)
41: 13/9 6/5
XGID=-b----E-D---dD--ac-da-A-A-:0:0:-1:41:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=160-162
1. 3-ply 13/9 6/5 eq: +0.639
Player: Opponent:
60.45% (G:17.35% B:0.63%) 39.55% (G:9.62% B:0.37%)
41: 24/23 13/9
XGID=-b----E-D---cD--bc-cb-A-A-:0:0:1:41:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=160-157
1. XG Roller++ 24/23 22/18 eq:-0.937 Player: 36.26% (G:8.24% B:0.38%) Opponent: 63.74% (G:24.29% B:0.88%)
2. XG Roller++ 13/8 eq:-0.950 (-0.013) Player: 34.55% (G:8.17% B:0.33%) Opponent: 65.45% (G:21.29% B:0.88%)
3. XG Roller++ 22/21 13/9 eq:-0.997 (-0.060) Player: 34.49% (G:8.51% B:0.41%) Opponent: 65.51% (G:22.91% B:1.27%)
4. XG Roller++ 24/23 13/9 eq:-1.000 (-0.063) Player: 34.33% (G:8.38% B:0.36%) Opponent: 65.67% (G:23.49% B:1.20%)
Robin understandably doesn’t want to stack another checker on the 8 point but his play does create another blot which Andy can aim for. Remember Andy is desperate for a gammon. The best play creates no extra blots and fights for the most advanced anchor available.
Double/Take
XGID=-b----E-DA--cC--bc-cb-AA--:0:0:-1:00:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=155-157
Analyzed in XG Roller++ Player Winning Chances: 65.49% (G:23.63% B:1.22%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.51% (G:8.56% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.466, Double=+1.059
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.860 (-0.140) Double/Take: +1.015 (+0.015) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Just a pass at this score, 5-0 ahead this would be a take, and if this was the first game, or playing for money, this would only just be a double.
53: 24/16*
XGID=-b----E-DA--cC--bc-cb-AA--:1:1:-1:53:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=155-157
1. 4-ply 24/16* eq: +0.585
Player: Opponent:
70.44% (G:20.33% B:1.01%) 29.56% (G:5.69% B:0.20%)
2. 4-ply 8/3* 6/3 eq: +0.549 (-0.036) Player:
Opponent: 66.30% (G:25.23% B:1.28%) 33.70% (G:7.75% B:0.37%)
Hitting the outfield checker escapes a back man and gains in the race, thus winning 4% more games. There are 5% more gammons if you point and create a 3pt board which is nice but does not offset the losses.
62: Bar/23 13/7
XGID=-a----E-Da--cC--bc-cb-AA-A:1:1:1:62:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=171-149
1. 4-ply Bar/23 13/7 eq: -0.699
Player: Opponent:
26.57% (G:4.94% B:0.17%) 73.43% (G:23.88% B:1.31%)
2. 4-ply Bar/23 8/2 eq: -0.720 (-0.021) Player:
Opponent: 26.58% (G:5.09% B:0.19%) 73.42% (G:25.53% B:1.50%)
More shots to get another man back but better to duplicate 6s and keep some structure
51: 24/18*
XGID=-a----EADa--cB--bc-cb-AB--:1:1:-1:51:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=163-149
1. 4-ply 24/18* eq: +0.707
Player: Opponent:
73.37% (G:24.61% B:1.29%) 26.63% (G:4.53% B:0.17%)
22: Bar/23 13/9* 9/7*
XGID=------EaDa--cB--bc-cb-AB-A:1:1:1:22:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=181-143
1. XG Roller++ Bar/21 23/21 6/4 eq: -0.596
Player: Opponent:
28.78% (G:4.72% B:0.17%) 71.22% (G:20.04% B:0.70%)
2. XG Roller++ Bar/23 13/9* 9/7* eq: -0.685 (-0.089)
Player: Opponent:
28.96% (G:6.58% B:0.26%) 71.04% (G:27.27% B:1.70%)
3. 4-ply Bar/21 23/21(2) eq: -0.645 (-0.049) Player:
Opponent: 24.08% (G:3.11% B:0.07%) 75.92% (G:15.24% B:0.39%)
4. 4-ply Bar/21 23/21 8/6 eq: -0.648 (-0.052) Player:
Opponent: 26.41% (G:3.95% B:0.12%) 73.59% (G:19.72% B:0.71%)
5. 4-ply Bar/21 6/4(2) eq: -0.660 (-0.064) Player:
Opponent: 29.04% (G:5.85% B:0.25%) 70.96% (G:25.29% B:1.47%)
Urghh! This play is bad for money and even worse at the score. He must grab the advanced anchor while he can. Robin splits his army in twain and tries to win this going forward. Very optimistic.
52: Bar/23 Bar/20
XGID=b-----EAD---cA--bc-cb-AC--:1:1:-1:52:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=173-159
1. 3-ply Bar/23 Bar/20 eq: +0.689
Player: Opponent:
71.44% (G:26.81% B:1.57%) 28.56% (G:6.44% B:0.21%)
52: 13/8 7/5*
XGID=--a--aEAD---cA--bc-cb-AC--:1:1:1:52:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=173-152
1. 4-ply 13/8 7/5* eq: -0.812
Player: Opponent:
24.88% (G:4.76% B:0.15%) 75.12% (G:29.73% B:1.76%)
2. 4-ply 23/21 7/2* eq: -0.827 (-0.015) Player:
Opponent: 25.09% (G:4.39% B:0.15%) 74.91% (G:30.71% B:2.28%)
3. 4-ply 23/18 7/5* eq: -0.844 (-0.032) Player:
Opponent: 26.59% (G:5.04% B:0.20%) 73.41% (G:34.26% B:2.96%)
44: Bar/21 13/9 13/5
XGID=a-a--AE-E---c---bc-cb-AC--:1:1:-1:44:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=166-157
1. 4-ply Bar/21 13/9 13/5 eq: +0.662
Player: Opponent:
69.91% (G:27.37% B:1.83%) 30.09% (G:7.45% B:0.33%)
2. 4-ply Bar/21 13/9(3) eq: +0.641 (-0.021) Player:
Opponent: 70.27% (G:25.06% B:1.53%) 29.73% (G:6.59% B:0.24%)
3. 4-ply Bar/21 8/4(3) eq: +0.634 (-0.028) Player:
Opponent: 68.47% (G:27.69% B:1.79%) 31.53% (G:7.45% B:0.30%)
Andy correctly doesn’t jump in there and make the 4 pt. He beautifully distributes his checkers to try and make it next time, while preserving the 8pt, which is v useful being 6 pts away from Robin’s anchor.
65: 23/12*
XGID=--a-aAE-E---a---cc-cc-AC--:1:1:1:65:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=166-141
1. 3-ply 23/12* eq: -0.711
Player: Opponent:
28.95% (G:6.50% B:0.26%) 71.05% (G:28.82% B:2.12%)
21: Bar/23 21/20*
XGID=a-a-aAE-E---A---cc-cc-AB--:1:1:-1:21:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=155-153
1. 4-ply Bar/23 21/20* eq: +0.708
Player: Opponent:
70.64% (G:29.02% B:2.21%) 29.36% (G:5.91% B:0.21%)
63: Bar/22 12/6
XGID=--b--aE-E---A---cc-cc-AB-A:1:1:1:63:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=175-150
1. 3-ply Bar/22 12/6 eq: -0.704
Player: Opponent:
26.62% (G:4.90% B:0.14%) 73.38% (G:24.46% B:1.21%)
Robin makes a second anchor so might have aspirations for a backgame. Trouble is he is only 16 pips down after the play and to make a “2,3” backgame viable you would want to be down at least 60 pips.
53: 23/15
XGID=--b--aF-E-------cc-cc-BB--:1:1:-1:53:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=166-150
1. XG Roller++ 23/20 23/18 eq: +0.724
Player: Opponent:
75.85% (G:21.68% B:0.87%) 24.15% (G:3.67% B:0.12%)
2. XG Roller++ 23/15 eq: +0.641 (-0.082)
Player: Opponent:
70.94% (G:24.11% B:1.24%) 29.06% (G:6.08% B:0.26%)
So why is this play such an error. To answer this we should consider what Andy’s game plan should be. He should tidy up his back men and focus on making his 4 and/or 7 point and hem Robin in. Robin has no timing so his board will crunch and Andy will be faced with an end game where he cannot lose and the only question is how many gammons will he win. With this play he gives Robin the option of either rolling perfectas 11,33 and going forward leaving blots for Andy to hit to improve his timing keeping Andy busy while he tries to make the 18 or 21 point.
21: 6/4 6/5*
XGID=--a--aF-E-a-----cc-cc-BB--:1:1:1:21:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=166-142
1. 4-ply 6/4 6/5* eq: -0.670
Player: Opponent:
30.64% (G:5.28% B:0.20%) 69.36% (G:28.99% B:1.73%)
2. 4-ply 23/21 22/21 eq: -0.673 (-0.003) Player:
Opponent: 26.33% (G:4.14% B:0.12%) 73.67% (G:21.71% B:0.73%)
3. 4-ply 23/21 6/5* eq: -0.681 (-0.010) Player:
Opponent: 29.10% (G:5.26% B:0.18%) 70.90% (G:27.18% B:1.35%)
A good play from Robin, being hit improves his backgame chances whereas a flunk from Andy could see a counter prime forming. He should, of course, never have had this option.
21: Bar/24 23/21*
XGID=a-a-AAD-E-a-----cc-cc-BB--:1:1:-1:21:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=163-147
1. 4-ply Bar/24 23/21* eq: +0.665
Player: Opponent:
68.80% (G:29.16% B:1.89%) 31.20% (G:5.34% B:0.23%)
51: Bar/24 8/3
XGID=-a--aAD-E-a-----cc-cc-BB-A:1:1:1:51:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=184-144
1. 4-ply Bar/24 8/3 eq: -0.723
Player: Opponent:
29.26% (G:5.03% B:0.21%) 70.74% (G:30.32% B:2.05%)
54: 24/20* 6/1*
XGID=-a-AaAD-D-a-----cc-cc-BBA-:1:1:-1:54:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=178-144
1. XG Roller++ 24/20* 6/1* eq: +0.702
Player: Opponent:
68.70% (G:32.37% B:2.14%) 31.30% (G:5.08% B:0.23%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/20* 20/15 eq: +0.697 (-0.005) Player:
Opponent: 68.66% (G:31.85% B:2.17%) 31.34% (G:4.36% B:0.18%)
3. XG Roller++ 9/4 8/4 eq: +0.679 (-0.022)
Player: Opponent:
67.92% (G:31.61% B:2.50%) 32.08% (G:5.49% B:0.27%)
4. 4-ply 24/20* 21/16 eq: +0.690 (-0.011) Player:
Opponent: 68.04% (G:32.33% B:2.38%) 31.96% (G:4.59% B:0.19%)
5. 4-ply 24/20* 15/10 eq: +0.688 (-0.014) Player:
Opponent: 67.39% (G:33.14% B:2.59%) 32.61% (G:4.82% B:0.20%)
This the most interesting play of the match and one that could have chouette
partners coming to blows!! XG changed its mind after rollouts (Hence the symbol not being at the top of the list) and aficionados are still not convince about XG’s handling of backgames (perhaps AlphaGo and Alpha0 can get a sibling, AlphaLuckbox to show us the way…) so I will say that all these 5 plays are good! Andy’s play is what I believe most top players would do, depriving the opponent of getting a third anchor.
54: Bar/21
XGID=---AaaD-D-a-----cc-bc-BBaB:1:1:1:54:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=199-135
1. 3-ply Bar/21 eq: -0.690
Player: Opponent:
32.65% (G:4.73% B:0.20%) 67.35% (G:33.43% B:2.55%)
54: 9/4* 8/4
XGID=---AaaD-D-a-----cc-bcABBaA:1:1:-1:54:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=195-135
1. 4-ply 9/4* 8/4 eq: +0.761
Player: Opponent:
68.22% (G:36.86% B:3.22%) 31.78% (G:3.50% B:0.14%)
54: Cannot Move
XGID=---AaaD-D-a-----bb-bcbBBaB:1:1:1:54:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=199-126
1. 4-ply Cannot Move eq: -0.781
Player: Opponent:
32.00% (G:3.57% B:0.17%) 68.00% (G:38.72% B:3.46%)
21: 20/18 15/14
XGID=---AaaD-D-a-----bb-bcbBBaB:1:1:-1:21:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=199-126
1. XG Roller++ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.834 Player: 70.44% (G:38.72% B:3.32%) Opponent: 29.56% (G:3.79% B:0.19%)
2. XG Roller++ 21/20 9/7 eq:+0.828 (-0.006) Player: 70.54% (G:38.25% B:3.05%) Opponent: 29.46% (G:3.39% B:0.14%)
3. XG Roller++ 15/14 9/7 eq:+0.804 (-0.030) Player: 69.59% (G:38.01% B:3.19%) Opponent: 30.41% (G:4.04% B:0.21%)
4. XG Roller++ 9/7 5/4 eq:+0.790 (-0.044) Player: 69.01% (G:37.85% B:3.28%) Opponent: 30.99% (G:4.32% B:0.22%)
5. XG Roller++ 20/18 15/14 eq:+0.768 (-0.066) Player: 68.31% (G:37.44% B:3.09%) Opponent: 31.69% (G:3.74% B:0.16%)
The priority is the 7 point, to make the prime contiguous. There are long term benefits of preventing Robin from making the bar point. The plays of 9/7 in the list above are not to provide a cover for the ace point!
53: Bar/22
XGID=---Aa-DaD--a----bb-bcbBBaB:1:1:1:53:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=199-123
1. 3-ply Bar/22 eq: -0.704
Player: Opponent:
33.62% (G:3.70% B:0.15%) 66.38% (G:36.21% B:2.75%)
64: 18/12 5/1
XGID=---Aa-DaD--a----bb-bcbCBaA:1:1:-1:64:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=196-123
1. XG Roller++ 18/12 14/10 eq: +0.698
Player: Opponent:
66.11% (G:36.25% B:2.69%) 33.89% (G:3.99% B:0.17%)
2. XG Roller++ 18/12 5/1 eq: +0.596 (-0.102)
Player: Opponent:
61.27% (G:36.91% B:2.66%) 38.73% (G:4.01% B:0.17%)
Wrong idea. Any plays involving the 3 back men are far better than this. Bar Point, not ace point!!
41: Cannot Move
XGID=---Aa-D-D--a-a--bb-bbbCBbA:1:1:1:41:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=196-113
1. 4-ply Cannot Move eq: -0.571
Player: Opponent:
40.37% (G:3.78% B:0.20%) 59.63% (G:37.52% B:2.92%)
54: 14/10 12/7
XGID=---Aa-D-D--a-a--bb-bbbCBbA:1:1:-1:54:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=196-113
1. 4-ply 14/10 12/7 eq: +0.558
Player: Opponent:
59.56% (G:36.92% B:2.69%) 40.44% (G:4.06% B:0.17%)
2. 4-ply 21/16 14/10 eq: +0.546 (-0.012) Player:
Opponent: 58.97% (G:36.89% B:2.73%) 41.03% (G:3.72% B:0.15%)
3. 4-ply 21/12 eq: +0.529 (-0.030) Player:
Opponent: 58.64% (G:36.24% B:2.59%) 41.36% (G:3.89% B:0.15%)
62: Bar/23 8/2
XGID=---Aa-D-D------abbabbbCBbA:1:1:1:62:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=196-104
1. 3-ply Bar/23 8/2 eq: -0.647
Player: Opponent:
36.27% (G:3.37% B:0.14%) 63.73% (G:36.73% B:2.41%)
44: 10/6 9/5 8/4(2)
XGID=--AAa-D-C------abbabbbCCb-:1:1:-1:44:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=188-104
1. XG Roller++ 9/5(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0.417
Player: Opponent:
54.25% (G:34.84% B:3.24%) 45.75% (G:7.11% B:0.38%)
2. XG Roller++ 10/6 9/5 8/4(2) eq: +0.368 (-0.048)
Player: Opponent:
53.35% (G:32.94% B:2.91%) 46.65% (G:7.80% B:0.42%)
3. 4-ply 10/6 9/5 9/1 eq: +0.381 (-0.035) Player:
Opponent: 53.94% (G:33.25% B:2.46%) 46.06% (G:6.09% B:0.27%)
The 9 point is hard to clear so you might as well do it now. Andy is probably thinking that being hit is no great hardship with those blots in Robin’s home board but leaving triple shots with most covering at least one of them looks a bit too blasé.
64: 22/16* 6/2
XGID=--AAa-D-C-------a-accdCCb-:1:1:1:64:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=188-88
1. 4-ply 22/16* 6/2 eq: -0.392
Player: Opponent:
45.78% (G:7.86% B:0.38%) 54.22% (G:33.21% B:3.08%)
51: Bar/20 7/6
XGID=a-BAa-C-C-------A-accdBCb-:1:1:-1:51:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=178-104
1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 21/16 eq: +0.386
Player: Opponent:
54.72% (G:32.05% B:2.61%) 45.28% (G:7.48% B:0.38%)
2. XG Roller++ Bar/20 7/6 eq: +0.346 (-0.040)
Player: Opponent:
53.60% (G:30.94% B:2.51%) 46.40% (G:7.63% B:0.33%)
3. 4-ply Bar/20 21/20 eq: +0.343 (-0.043) Player:
Opponent: 53.83% (G:30.51% B:2.46%) 46.17% (G:8.15% B:0.35%)
What’s happening here? Andy lifts the blot which I am sure 99% of us would do but XG chooses to leave it there. It will only be hit with 55, 52 and 53 so it reasonably safe and leaving two blots on Robins 4 and 5 point make Robin’s small numbers useful.
62: 23/15
XGID=--BAaaC-C-------A--dcdBCb-:1:1:1:62:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=178-98
1. 4-ply 23/15 eq: -0.439
Player: Opponent:
43.57% (G:6.25% B:0.28%) 56.43% (G:32.98% B:2.84%)
2. 4-ply 23/17 16/14 eq: -0.452 (-0.013) Player:
Opponent: 43.29% (G:6.03% B:0.27%) 56.71% (G:33.44% B:2.87%)
21: 21/18
XGID=--BAaaC-C------AA--dcdBBb-:1:1:-1:21:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=170-98
1. 4-ply 21/18 eq: +0.350
Player: Opponent:
54.20% (G:30.25% B:2.52%) 45.80% (G:7.92% B:0.36%)
2. 4-ply 20/18 6/5 eq: +0.330 (-0.020) Player:
Opponent: 53.45% (G:30.05% B:2.57%) 46.55% (G:8.42% B:0.38%)
3. 4-ply 21/20 6/4 eq: +0.294 (-0.056) Player:
Opponent: 52.48% (G:29.26% B:2.28%) 47.52% (G:8.93% B:0.38%)
Andy correctly stays flexible, making the anchor leave a nightmare double 1s and 3s.
61: 15/8
XGID=--BA-aCaC------AA--dcdBBb-:1:1:1:61:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=170-95
1. 4-ply 15/8 eq: -0.536
Player: Opponent:
39.16% (G:4.22% B:0.17%) 60.84% (G:32.98% B:2.31%)
2. 4-ply 15/9 8/7* eq: -0.543 (-0.007)
Player: Opponent:
42.81% (G:5.98% B:0.29%) 57.19% (G:38.18% B:4.58%)
3. 4-ply 16/15 8/2 eq: -0.581 (-0.045) Player:
Opponent: 36.97% (G:4.40% B:0.12%) 63.03% (G:32.64% B:2.36%)
4. 4-ply 16/9 eq: -0.588 (-0.053) Player:
Opponent: 40.20% (G:3.86% B:0.16%) 59.80% (G:38.01% B:3.47%)
5. 4-ply 16/10 8/7* eq: -0.589 (-0.053) Player:
Opponent: 41.75% (G:5.47% B:0.25%) 58.25% (G:39.42% B:5.01%)
The bots have taught us that the big play, hitting on the 5 point is too big. The timing of the back game is OK now so trying to make a board naturally is the favoured course of action. Getting a couple of men on the bar at this stage will likely result in Black leaving a shot while bearing off but White not having a decent board to contain the blot if hit.
65: 20/9*
XGID=--BA-aCaD-------A--dcdBBb-:1:1:-1:65:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=163-95
1. 4-ply 20/9* eq: +0.655
Player: Opponent:
62.19% (G:39.18% B:3.10%) 37.81% (G:1.89% B:0.09%)
11: Cannot Move
XGID=--BA--CaD-------a--dcdBBbA:1:1:1:11:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=172-84
1. 4-ply Cannot Move eq: -0.713
Player: Opponent:
36.93% (G:1.14% B:0.05%) 63.07% (G:42.08% B:3.28%)
41: 18/13
XGID=--BA--CaD-------a--dcdBBbA:1:1:-1:41:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=172-84
1. XG Roller++ 18/14 6/5 eq: +0.682
Player: Opponent:
62.27% (G:40.72% B:3.35%) 37.73% (G:1.11% B:0.04%)
2. XG Roller++ 9/4 eq: +0.677 (-0.005) Player:
Opponent: 62.02% (G:40.84% B:3.27%) 37.98% (G:1.10% B:0.05%)
3. XG Roller++ 18/13 eq: +0.665 (-0.017)
Player: Opponent:
61.84% (G:40.24% B:3.24%) 38.16% (G:1.07% B:0.04%)
4. 4-ply 9/5 6/5 eq: +0.690 (+0.008) Player:
Opponent: 62.35% (G:41.26% B:3.54%) 37.65% (G:1.36% B:0.07%)
5. 4-ply 18/14 5/4 eq: +0.673 (-0.009) Player:
Opponent: 62.04% (G:40.85% B:3.15%) 37.96% (G:1.54% B:0.07%)
Double 5s less awkward after the recommended play.
53: Bar/22 8/3
XGID=--BA--C-D---a---a--dcdBBbA:1:1:1:53:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=172-79
1. 4-ply Bar/22 8/3 eq: -0.606
Player: Opponent:
38.05% (G:1.73% B:0.07%) 61.95% (G:36.28% B:2.39%)
53: 13/10 9/4
XGID=--BB--C-C---a---a--dcdCBb-:1:1:-1:53:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=164-79
1. 4-ply 13/10 9/4 eq: +0.662
Player: Opponent:
63.41% (G:37.90% B:2.52%) 36.59% (G:1.02% B:0.04%)
63: 22/16 8/5
XGID=--BB--C-C------a---dceCBb-:1:1:1:63:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=164-71
1. 4-ply 22/16 8/5 eq: -0.671
Player: Opponent:
37.44% (G:0.19% B:0.01%) 62.56% (G:39.84% B:2.81%)
2. 4-ply 22/13 eq: -0.717 (-0.046) Player:
Opponent: 35.15% (G:0.18% B:0.01%) 64.85% (G:39.64% B:2.61%)
Good play, Robin must make a decent board before he hits.
61: 10/4 1/Off
XGID=--BB-AC-B------aA--dceBBb-:1:1:-1:61:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=155-71
1. 4-ply 10/4 1/Off eq: +0.713
Player: Opponent:
64.38% (G:39.43% B:3.10%) 35.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43: 8/5 8/4
XGID=--BB-AC-B-------A--dcfBBa-:1:1:1:43:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=155-64
1. 4-ply 8/5 8/4 eq: -0.673
Player: Opponent:
37.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 62.70% (G:39.19% B:3.16%)
22: 6/4(4)
XGID=--BBABC---------A--dcfBBa-:1:1:-1:22:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=148-64
1. 3-ply 6/4(4) eq: +0.751
Player: Opponent:
65.23% (G:41.25% B:2.91%) 34.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51: 16/10
XGID=--BBABC---------A---cjBBa-:1:1:1:51:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=148-56
1. XG Roller++ 22/16 eq: -0.686 Player:
Opponent: 37.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 62.43% (G:39.94% B:3.26%)
2. XG Roller++ 22/17 6/5 eq: -0.694 (-0.008)
Player: Opponent:
37.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 62.68% (G:40.23% B:3.33%)
3. XG Roller++ 16/10 eq: -0.828 (-0.142)
Player: Opponent:
32.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 67.44% (G:42.08% B:3.64%)
Whoops! An oversight by Robin, he needs to let Andy play 2s. 22 leaves a single shot, 32 and 42 leave double shots and 52 and 62 triples!! The only drawback is double 1 which would make Andy’s bearoff easier.
22: Cannot Move
XGID=--BBABC---A---------cjBBa-:1:1:-1:22:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=142-56
1. 4-ply Cannot Move eq: +0.723
Player: Opponent:
66.52% (G:36.23% B:2.24%) 33.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64: 22/18 10/4
XGID=--BBABC---A---------cjBBa-:1:1:1:64:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=142-56
1. 4-ply 22/18 10/4 eq: -0.494
Player: Opponent:
40.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 59.21% (G:30.57% B:1.97%)
2. 4-ply 22/12 eq: -0.516 (-0.022) Player:
Opponent: 40.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 59.88% (G:31.08% B:2.17%)
33: 4/1(4)
XGID=--BBBBC-----------A-cjABa-:1:1:-1:33:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=132-56
1. 3-ply 4/1(4) eq: +0.635
Player: Opponent:
65.30% (G:32.76% B:0.87%) 34.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44: 18/2
XGID=--BBBBC-----------A-cfABe-:1:1:1:44:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=132-44
1. XG Roller++ 22/10 18/14 eq: -0.584
Player: Opponent:
30.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.09% (G:22.46% B:0.29%)
2. XG Roller++ 18/2 eq: -0.591 (-0.007)
Player: Opponent:
34.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 65.73% (G:28.80% B:0.54%)
Looks like the trade off between running off the gammon and staying for more shots is nicely balanced.
61: 5/Off 1/Off
XGID=--CBBBC-------------cfABe-:1:1:-1:61:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=116-44
1. 3-ply 5/Off 1/Off eq: +0.834
Player: Opponent:
75.13% (G:31.31% B:0.88%) 24.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21: 6/4 2/1
XGID=--CBBBC-------------bfABd-:1:1:1:21:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=116-38
1. 4-ply 6/4 2/1 eq: -0.881
Player: Opponent:
28.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 71.43% (G:41.73% B:1.37%)
2. 4-ply 6/3 eq: -0.917 (-0.035) Player:
Opponent: 27.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.86% (G:42.02% B:1.34%)
The slot of the ace point is useful for closing the board later but also can be handy when running off the gammon. Imagine bearing in your last man but rolling a 1.
61: 5/4 5/Off
XGID=-ABBCBB-------------bfABd-:1:1:-1:61:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=113-38
1. 3-ply 5/4 5/Off eq: +1.245
Player: Opponent:
86.05% (G:45.48% B:1.24%) 13.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2. 1-ply 5/Off 1/Off eq: +0.083 (-1.163) Player:
Opponent: 45.74% (G:21.74% B:1.34%) 54.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3. 1-ply 5/Off 4/3* eq: -0.270 (-1.516) Player:
Opponent: 32.53% (G:16.90% B:0.91%) 67.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Good roll. Now Robin must move off the 23 pt to give Andy 2s to play.
61: 23/16
XGID=-ABBCBB--------------gABd-:1:1:1:61:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=113-32
1. 4-ply 23/16 eq: -1.186
Player: Opponent:
18.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 81.83% (G:48.10% B:1.49%)
65: 4/Off(2)
XGID=-ABBCBB---------A----gAAd-:1:1:-1:65:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=106-32
1. 3-ply 4/Off(2) eq: +1.280
Player: Opponent:
84.37% (G:50.74% B:1.90%) 15.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66: 22/4 16/10
XGID=-ABBCBB---------A----eAAd-:1:1:1:66:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=106-24
1. 4-ply 22/4 16/10 eq: -1.001
Player: Opponent:
10.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 89.42% (G:19.55% B:0.27%)
A fab roll, from 50%+ gammons to less than 20%.
54: 4/Off(2)
XGID=-ABBDBB---A----------e-Ad-:1:1:-1:54:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=82-24
1. 3-ply 4/Off(2) eq: +1.085
Player: Opponent:
90.88% (G:23.79% B:0.42%) 9.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62: 10/2
XGID=-ABBDBB---A----------c-Ad-:1:1:1:62:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=82-16
1. 4-ply 10/2 eq: -1.099
Player: Opponent:
10.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 89.17% (G:28.13% B:0.52%)
2. 4-ply 10/4 3/1 eq: -1.154 (-0.054) Player:
Opponent: 8.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 91.30% (G:28.77% B:0.52%)
3. 4-ply 23/15 eq: -1.225 (-0.126) Player:
Opponent: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 100.00% (G:19.24% B:0.00%)
Still risking some gammons but needs to stay for the shot. A look at the numbers (if you are allergic to Maths then skip this bit). He is risking roughly 9% gammons to win 11% games. In money games or the start of a long match, it is correct to risk gammon losses in order to win games as long as you don’t lose twice as many gammons. i.e. 2 gammon losses are worth the risk for each game you can turnaround. This gives a value of 0.5 for what is called the Gammon
Price (or Gammon Value). In matches this can vary. The trailer values Gammons more because they enable him to catch up quicker. The leader values Gammons less. The Gammon Price can only be between 0 and 1. At the score 10 9 Crawford, the trailer values a Gammon as much as a loss and therefore has a Gammon Price of 1. This is called Gammon Go. The leader gives no value to a Gammon and has a price of 0 (Gammon Save). At DMP both players have a gammon price of 0. The Gammon Price for Andy’s gammons at this current score with Robin leading 6-0 to 11 is 0.59 so Robin needs to turnaround an extra 9% multiplied by 0.59 games to justify staying. Even with his opponent at Gammon Go a 9% risk to gain 11% would still make it correct to stay. Don’t think that even the top players go through numbers like this. The calculation of the Gammon Price is too much trouble, never mind estimates of the gammon and turnaround percentages. Experienced players just know that gammons are more valuable when trailing and vice-versa. Extreme cases like Gammon Go and Gammon Save should be committed to memory though.
53: 4/1 4/Off
XGID=-ACBDBB--------------c-Ad-:1:1:-1:53:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=74-16
1. 3-ply 4/1 4/Off eq: +0.953
Player: Opponent:
88.32% (G:17.89% B:0.03%) 11.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66: ????
XGID=-ACBDBB--------------a-Ae-:1:1:1:66:6:0:0:11:10 Pip=74-9
1. 3-ply 23/5 6/Off eq: -1.000
Player: Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Resigns a Single Game 2pts.
Robin would rather hit of course ( Andy would still be the favourite, once you have more than 8 off you are a clear favourite), but if you are going to miss this is the way to do it!
Game Summary:
robin swaffield Category andy darby
Expert (-0.0138) Total Error Advanced (-0.0160)
Expert (-0.0144) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0174)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
6.89 Performance Rating 7.98
3(2) Move Errors 6(2)
-0.303(-2.35%) Equity lost (cost) -0.383(-3.14%)
0 Double Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
0 Take Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
3(2) Total Error 6(2)
-0.303(-2.35%) Equity lost (cost) -0.383(-3.14%)
0 Jokers 2
-1.561(-10.08%) Luck +1.561(+10.08%)