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    Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635

    Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

    Ecological Modelling

    journa l homepage: www.elsevier .com/ locate /ecolmodel

    From design to digital model: A quantitative analysis approach toGarden Cities theory

    Zhiyuan Yuan a, Xinqi Zheng b,, Lina Lv a, Chunlu Xue a

    a School of Land Science andTechnology, China University of Geoscience, Beijing 100083, Chinab Schoolof Information Engineering, China University of Geoscience, Beijing 100083, China

    a r t i c l e i n f o

    Article history:

    Received 4 March 2014Received in revised form 22 June 2014

    Accepted 23 June 2014

    Available online 11 July 2014

    Keywords:

    Garden City

    Digital city modeling

    Geographic information system (GIS)

    Comparative analysis

    Land use structure

    Open green space accessibility

    a b s t r a c t

    As a complementto the development ofnew theories, the reevaluation and knowledge mining ofclassical

    theories can be beneficial for urban development. In particular, quantitative analyses for cities can now

    take advantage of geographic information systems (GIS). Proposed more than one hundred years ago,

    Ebenezer Howards Garden City is a generally acknowledged classical urban theory. On the basis ofthe

    original work, we model a digital Garden City in ArcGIS. The model is accurate to within 1% for both areal

    and length measures, and enables our further quantitative evaluation of the urban land-use structure

    and open green space accessibility. We then compare the classical theory with a modern-built area for

    the quantitative evaluation results. Zhujiajiao Town in Shanghai, winner ofthe International Award for

    Livable Communities in 2008, provides a reference. Although the central areas ofGarden City and Zhu-

    jiajiao Town have different geographical and historical backgrounds, the measured land-use structures,

    including indicators ofarea proportion and area per capita, exhibits similarities on land-use types ofres-

    idential, transportation, and ecological conservation, which offer a considerable reference for land-use

    structure ofa livable urban area. Comparison ofthe accessibility to open green spaces in both cities shows

    that the average access time from a residential area to open green space in Garden City is just 186.77 s,

    which is much shorter than that in Zhujiajiao. Our research shows that the classical Garden City theory

    can be modeled into highly accurate digital forms, allowing richer information in quantitative terms to be

    obtained than from the original theory, and enabling comparisons with modern cities. Besides, the pro-posed digital modeling approach is widely applicable to classical theories and historical planning cases.

    2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    1. Introduction

    In 1898, Ebenezer Howardproposed the GardenCity in his book

    To-morrow: A Peaceful Path to Real Reform, which has been widely

    known through subsequent editions named Garden Cities of To-

    morrow. The Garden City is characterized as a living space that

    combines the advantages of urban and rural life, with a social city

    designedto overcome further increasesin population afterthe limit

    of the Garden City is reached (Howard, 1898, 1902). The theory, its

    practical applications in Letchworth (Miller, 1989; Purdom, 1963)

    andWelwyn(Reiss, 1920), andthe resultingworldwideGarden City

    movement (Jin, 2007; Ward, 1992) have all been extensively stud-

    ied.For example, the theory has beenrecognized as the cornerstone

    of modernurbanplanning (Alexander, 1992; Buder, 1969). Further,

    Correspondingauthorat: No.29, XueyuanRoad, Haidian District,Beijing100083,

    China. Tel.: +86 13401184568; fax: +86 1082321807.

    E-mail address: [email protected] (X. Zheng).

    the idea of the towncountry magnet has caused general debate

    (Clark, 2003; Mumford, 1961), and the changes in residential living

    conditions have also been discussed (Edwards, 1913; Reade, 1913).

    Bottlenecks in the progress of urbanization, such as traf-

    fic congestion, environmental pollution, and urban smog, have

    encouraged people to explore new solutions. The development of

    further studies on classical theories and historical urban planning

    cases for modern practice can be an effective means of finding

    new solutions. Therefore, it is sensible to study Garden City the-

    ory more in-depth. However, a survey of studies on Garden Cities

    over the past 100 years suggests that Howards theory has only

    been considered qualitatively. That is, researchers have attempted

    to understand and discuss Howards idea by analyzing the text and

    accompanying diagrams in the original work, while an accurate

    analysis of the theorys physical characteristics (layout, land-use

    structure, per capita indicators, etc.) has not been researched.

    In recent decades, geographic information system (GIS) technol-

    ogy has been widely used in urban planning. The advantages

    of spatial-data organization, management, and especially spatial

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.015

    0304-3800/ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rightsreserved.

    http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.015http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03043800http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodelmailto:[email protected]://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.015http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.015mailto:[email protected]://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.015&domain=pdfhttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodelhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03043800http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.015
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    Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635 27

    analysis, make GIS particularly suitable for complicated calcula-

    tions (Fotheringham and Rogerson, 1994; Matejcek et al., 2006).

    The application of GIS in urban planning generally falls into one

    of the two categories. The first assists with the visual presentation

    and quick editing of planning schemes (Beregovskih et al., 2010;

    Malczewski, 2004), andthe secondsupports urban modeling, anal-

    ysis, and prediction for real cities (Jiang and Yao, 2010). Both are

    implemented in modern cities in the real world. Even the leading

    studies of smartcities focuson the visual representationand simple

    analysis of real cities (Al-Hader and Rodzi,2009). However, model-

    ing classical and historical theories or cases is a challenge, because

    we have only incomplete data, inaccurate diagrams, and poorly

    organized descriptions. The archeological mining of these classi-

    cal theories based on GIS, although rarely reported, can provide

    considerable benefits to modern urban planning.

    Ongoing studies of urban spatial analysis are mainly focused

    on open-space accessibility (Geurs and van Wee, 2004; Tsou et al.,

    2005), landscape pattern measurement (Herold et al., 2002; Kong

    and Nakagoshi, 2006; Seto and Fragkias, 2005), complex trans-

    portation network analysis (Brockmann and Helbing,2013; Crucitti

    et al., 2006), and energy metabolism and sustainability (Hall, 2011;

    Yang et al., 2014; Zhang et al., 2014). Since the 1950s, accessibility

    has been an important indicator for the urban green-space distri-

    bution (Van Herzele and Wiedemann, 2003). Accessibility can bemeasured by various methods, such as the buffer zone, minimum

    distance, travel impedance, andgravityindex (Luo andWang, 2003;

    Oh and Jeong, 2007; Talen and Anselin, 1998). Modern-built cities

    are generally the basis of these studies, andthe analysis of classical

    and historical theories or cases is rare.

    Therefore, our study considers the following three questions.

    First, is there a reliable modeling procedure for those classical

    urban theories presented in texts and diagrams but only available

    on papery material? If so, what are the differences between the

    modelingprocedure for cities in classical theories andmodern soci-

    ety? Second, is the urban land-use structure comparable in cities

    or towns with different geographical and historical backgrounds?

    Will the land-use structure designed by Howard be similar to that

    in modern cities? Third, as the pioneer of urban planning, Howardtried to solve the environmental problems of urbanization with a

    spatial allocation of opengreen spaces. Thus,what are the quantita-

    tive results of judging his planning scheme through an open green

    space accessibility analysis? In theremainder of this paper, we first

    reorganize the data and diagrams in Howards original work, and

    model a highly accurate digital Garden City using the ArcGIS soft-

    ware. We then quantitatively analyze Howards theory in terms of

    a land-use structure calculation and an open green space accessi-

    bilitymeasurementon the basis of the digital model. Finally, taking

    Zhujiajiao Town as a reference, we apply the urban modeling pro-

    cedure of modern cities, and analyze the results with the same

    land-use structure calculation and open green space accessibility

    measurement procedure used for the Garden City. We then con-

    trast the modeling procedure for classical theories with that formodern cities, and compare the land-use structure and open green

    space accessibility of Howards Garden City with that of modern

    Zhujiajiao Town.

    2. Method

    2.1. Modeling classical theory

    The modeling procedure provides the foundation for further

    quantitative study. We have previously attempted to model a dig-

    ital Garden City (Yuan et al., 2013a). Further improvements and

    repeated experiments have enabled us to identify the main mod-

    eling process for a digital Garden City, and this procedure is also

    suitable for other classical theories expressed by a literal descrip-

    tion and schematic pictures. The modeling process consists of

    an analysis of the original theory, the selection of an appropri-

    ate mathematical foundation, data extraction and calculation, the

    systematic organization and design of an attribute structure, vec-

    torization and digitization, verification of the model accuracy, and

    (if necessary) corrections to the model (see Fig. 1).

    2.1.1. Original theory analysis

    Analyzing the original theory ensures that the natural idea

    and characteristics are understood and accurately reflected in the

    model. The analysis is also important for the data calculations and

    framework design, which are strongly influenced by the informa-

    tion in the original work.

    The modeling process of a digital Garden City offers a specific

    example. The analysis of Howards original theory helps us under-

    stand what should and can be present and calculated in its digital

    form, and thus determine the extent and object of the model. The

    Garden City is part of a citygroup named the social city. Eachsocial

    city includes several separate urban areas (one central city encir-

    cled by several Garden Cities), agricultural areas in the intervals

    between cities, and transportation systems of highways and rail-

    roads connecting each urban area. The most detailed part of the

    theory concerns the urban area of the Garden City, and this is themost important part of our study on urban planning. Thus, we con-

    sider the models extent to be the entire social city, and focus on

    the central area of a single Garden City.

    2.1.2. Mathematical foundation selection

    Being ideal, the cities in classical theories are usually designed

    without spatial reference. Therefore, it is necessary to select a

    mathematical foundation that includes a suitable spatial coordi-

    nate system, a mapprojection thatminimizes deformation,modern

    international units, and a scale that is appropriate to the size of the

    modeled city.

    Because of theideal andhypothetical characteristics of thesocial

    city, the mathematical foundation of a digital Garden City model

    need not consider the citys geographical location. Therefore, webuild a new projection coordinate system called garden city. To

    minimize the deformation of the model, we use the Aitoff projec-

    tion because of the round shape of the social city and the Garden

    Cities. The false easting, false northing, and central meridian are all

    set to 0 because of the theorys idealistic construction. The model

    uses length units of meters. The geographic coordinate system of

    the garden city projection coordinates is GCS Beijing 1954 with

    Greenwich as the prime meridian, D Beijing 1954 as the datum,

    and Krasovsky 1940 as the spheroid.

    2.1.3. Data preparation

    The data in theories are usually scattered, incomplete, or hid-

    den within text and diagrams. Data preparation aims to form a

    systematic, complete, and accurate data list through data extrac-tion and calculation (see Fig. 2). Extracting the core points of a

    theory can make the data more systematic. The main references

    for this step are the data given in the text, urban layouts shown

    in diagrams, and geometric formulae. In some cases, data cannot

    be calculated because of deficiencies in the original work. Thus,

    it is necessary to add one or more assumptions to the authors

    design. These assumptions should be reasonable and reliable, and

    be related tothe geometricfeatures of modelingobjects,suchas the

    lengthand width of roads,area of parks,and so on. Both exact num-

    bers and numerical relations can be assumed. Some assumptions

    may prove to be false, whereasothers maybefoundtobepoorwhen

    compared to other calculation results. Such assumptions should be

    abandoned or corrected. After comparing and adjusting, the final

    datalistshouldbebasedonasinglebestassumption,orthegroupof

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    28 Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635

    Fig. 1. Modeling procedure for classical urban theories.

    assumptions that provide optimal results. The comparison of mod-

    els formed under different assumptions might offer further insight

    into the development of cities.

    For the data preparation step in the modeling of digital Garden

    City, all original data are extracted from the original work. Then,

    the corepoint system is confirmedpreciselyaccordingto the center

    points of the central city and six Garden Cities in the concentric-

    circle layout of Howards design. The calculation is performed in

    the following sequence: (1) urban boundaries of the central city

    and Garden Cities; (2) inner and outer radii of the rings of the cen-

    tral garden, the whole town, the factories and warehouses, and

    the circular railway; (3) inner and outer radii of Grand Avenue;

    Corepointssystem Modeling object

    Modeling object A Modeling objectB1 Modeling objectB2 Modeling objectB3

    Core point

    A

    Core point B 1 Core point B 2 Core point B 3

    Text descripon & Data

    Diagram pictures

    Certaindata

    Uncertaindata Assumpon

    Xi

    Calculangresult Ri

    Geometric formula

    Validassumpon

    Invalidassumpon

    Review&Contrast& Analysis

    Sasfied Data discrepancy or

    against common sense

    Correconor

    adjustment

    Opmalresults Rm

    Comparison

    Calculaon results RA

    Geometric formula

    Calculaon results RB1 Calculaon results RB2 Calculaon results RB3

    Data list (based on assumpon groups Xm)

    Fig. 2. Detailed data preparation procedure.

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    Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635 29

    (4) road (referring to radial roads connecting outer border of the

    Grand Avenue and the boundary of central urban area) widths; (5)

    widths of residential rings and avenues; and (6) inner and outer

    radii of the Crystal Palace, central park, and the ring of large public

    buildings. The calculation is based on the four following assump-

    tions: (1) the four residential rings are of equal width; (2) the 2nd,

    4th, and 5th avenues have the same widths as the road, because

    they have the same urban function (can be regarded as roads divid-

    ing two adjacent residential patches); (3) the area of the factory

    and warehouse rings in the original work does not include area of

    these roads between adjacent patches; (4) the ring of large public

    buildings and the Crystal Palace are of equal width (referring to the

    difference between inner and outer radii of the ring).

    2.1.4. Systematic organization and attribute structure design

    The model framework design must consider the available data,

    the feasibility of vectorization in a GIS software, and further

    research intentions. Each item in the model should be represented

    in feature files. Generally, point features areused to denotecritical

    points in the model, which determine the positions of objects, and

    attributes of point features should include location, coordinate,

    and governmental authority. The central lines of roads, outer con-

    tours of buildings, and park walls are signified by the line feature,

    and attributes should include the serial number, length, function,etc. Thepolygon features representareasor regions of pavements,

    buildings, and parks, and its major attributes include area,land-use

    type, and so on.

    The data framework and structure of the digital Garden City

    model includes two levels. One is the social city, including the

    central city, the Garden Cities, agricultural land, and the transporta-

    tion systems linking the central city and Garden Cities. The other

    is the urban area of a Garden City, which is reorganized accord-

    ing to land-use details, i.e., buildings (including boundaries and

    patches of building areas for residential, public, and factorial use),

    urban transportation system (including central lines, boundaries

    and patches for boulevards, avenues, streets and roads, and patches

    of their intersections), and greenspaces (including cut-off linesand

    patches of green belts, and boundaries and patches of open greenspaces).

    2.1.5. Vectorization and digitization

    Vectorization is implemented in the GIS software. The process

    follows a specific spatial sequence: (1) core points, (2) other control

    points, (3) polylines, (4) topologycheck and correction of polylines,

    (5) polygons, and (6) topology check and correction of polygons.

    For the modeling process of the Garden City, vectorization is

    implemented in ArcGIS 10.0. All geometric data is precise to three

    decimal places. The most time-consuming part is the segmentation

    and extraction ofthe road network andgreen beltsin the urbanarea

    of a GardenCity. Further,the topology is built and checked after the

    vectorization process.

    2.1.6. Accuracy verification and correction

    The model accuracy is controlled by comparing the data list

    extracted from the theory with the corresponding measurement

    results from the digital model in the GIS. If the relative error of

    certain parts is unsatisfactory, the items causing the error should

    be recalculated, and the entire model should be adjusted or rebuilt

    according to the location or calculation sequence of these items.

    The model can be accepted and used for further analysis when the

    relative errors of all parts and the entire model are small enoughto

    accurately reflect the relevant theory.

    In modeling the Garden City, the relative errors are calculated

    by comparingthe datasets obtained from theoriginalwork andthe

    digital model. We calculate the relative error of each item men-

    tioned in the original work, and summarize the average relative

    errors of the length measurements, arealmeasurements, and count

    measurements. The final digital model and accuracy calculation

    results are given in Section 3.1.

    2.2. Measurement of open green space

    On the basis of the digital model, we quantitatively measure

    the Garden Citys open green space as the proportion of the whole

    central urban area and the open green space area per capita, and

    study the accessibility in terms of travel impedance.

    The accessibility analysis measures the shortest distance from a

    starting point (only residential areas are considered in this study)

    to the destination area (i.e., the open green space). If we regard

    the travel impedance distribution as homogeneous and undiffer-

    entiated in the city, the shortest distance should be the length of

    a straight line connecting the starting point and destination area.

    However, factors such as the land-use type, population distribu-

    tion, and traffic network affect travel impedance. Various routes

    connecting the starting point and destination area are therefore

    considered, and that one with the minimum travel impedance

    is selected and used to confirm the corresponding accessibility

    between the starting point and destination area.

    In this study, we use the access time of the route with the min-

    imum travel impedance to represent the accessibility. The betterthe accessibility, the lower the minimum accumulated impedance,

    andthus the shorter the access time. We divide the entire area into

    cells (i.e., rasterization), and value each of them according to the

    impedance per unit distance. For a given walking speed, the time

    required to move diagonally through each cell can be calculated.

    Then, the total access time for each possible route linking the start-

    ing cell to the identified destination areas is easily obtained, and

    the accessibility can be confirmed by comparing the access times

    of all possible routes. The necessary calculations and comparison

    can be performed by the spatial analyst tool in ArcGIS. The spe-

    cificsteps are as follows (VanHerzele andWiedemann, 2003; Zhou

    et al., 2008):

    (1) For each factor affecting travel impedance (e.g., land-use type,population distribution, traffic network), determine the rela-

    tive travel impedance under every condition and the weight of

    each factor. Differences caused by the means of transportation

    androad grades should be taken into account. In our accessibil-

    ity analysis, the land-use type is the only factor affecting travel

    impedance in the digital Garden City. This is because the pop-

    ulation distribution is missing from the original work, and the

    effectof allthe roads canbe reflected by regarding their patches

    as a land-use type. The categories and corresponding relative

    impedances of land-usetypes are determined on thebasis of the

    land-use conditions and a summary of similar research cases in

    China (Guo et al., 2012; Hu et al., 2005; Li et al., 2008; Yin and

    Kong, 2006; Yu et al., 1999; Zhou et al., 2008; Zhou and Guo,

    2003) (Table 1).(2) Add attribute fields of factors affecting travel impedance in the

    digital model vector file and insert corresponding attributes to

    eachpatch.The impedance attributeof the patches in the vector

    file canthen be obtainedby a weighted-sumcalculation, i.e.,the

    sum of three products multiplying the travel impedance value

    under the specific condition of each factor and the associated

    weight. In the digital Garden City, the impedance of each patch

    depends on its land-use type.

    (3) Set the transportation means for access and basic travel

    speed, and assign travel speeds to patches according to their

    impedance. Travel speed is a representation of impedance

    that combines all affecting factors and transportation means.

    Because of the urban size and centralized planning of the Gar-

    den City, we only consider walking, and set a basic walking

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    30 Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635

    Table 1

    Relative travel impedanceof different land-use types forwalking in GardenCity.

    Land-use types Physical items Relative travel impedance

    Roads Boulevards, avenues, streets, roads, and their green belts 1

    Residential areas Four residential rings 3

    Open green space Central garden, central park, and the grand avenue 4

    Administrative areas Administrative ring, schools, and churches 5

    Commercial- and industrial-related areas Crystal palace, industrial ring 100

    speed of 1m/s according to the general setting ranges in traf-

    fic engineering (Oh and Jeong, 2007), regardless of the impact

    of different road grades on the travel cost. The relative travel

    speed is numerically equal to the travel impedance when the

    walking speed on a road is 1m/s.

    (4) Select the physical categories of open green space according to

    the original theory, and extract them as a single vector file. This

    is the source data for the cost distance. The open green space in

    the Garden City is composed of the central garden, the central

    park, and the grand avenue.

    (5) Convert the polygon data to raster data with the conversion

    tools in ArcGIS. Recheck the attribute representing impedance

    conditions, namely the travel speed, of each cell. In the digital

    Garden City, we use a cell size of 10m10m for rasterization.

    (6) Extract the study area (in this study, the residential areas) as

    a single polygon layer. This layer should be selected as the

    processing extent in the environment settingsin theArcGIS tool

    of cost distance. The four residential rings in the digital Garden

    City are considered to be study areas.

    (7) Calculate the minimum distance (measured in accumulated

    access time) of each cell in the study area to the open green

    space using the cost distance tool in ArcGIS, and output the

    distance raster (the distance is measured by access time). The

    whole calculation and comparison process can be performed by

    the ArcGIS software.

    (8) Classify all cells in the output raster of step (7) according to

    travel time. The intervals canbe determined autonomously.The

    classification map can be obtained in the software by setting

    the intervals in the classification label of the files properties.Statistics on the area and proportion of each accessibility class

    can also be computed with the spatial analysis tool of ArcGIS.

    This allows the accessibility distribution in the study area to be

    plotted. In thedigital GardenCity,we select300 s (5min) as the

    interval, considering the results of step (7). The equal interval

    classification map and statistics with a class interval of 5min

    walking time are shown in Section 3.2.2.

    3. Results

    3.1. Digital Garden City

    3.1.1. Interface of the digital model

    Through the modeling process described in Section 2.1, we suc-

    cessfully transformed Howards Garden City theory into a digital

    model (see Fig. 3). This digital form is equipped with systematic

    organization and structured attributes, and enables quantitative

    measurements and calculations.

    3.1.2. Accuracy verification

    We calculate the relative errors by comparing two datasets, one

    extracted from the original work and the other measured from

    the digital model (Table 2). The results confirm that the digital

    model is fit for further analysis, with an average relative error of

    0.90% for the areal measures, 0.57% for the length measures, and

    0 for the count measures. The maximum errors occur for the total

    area of the gardens and the total road length (measured along the

    centreline), and are 5.57% and 3.65%, respectively. Considering the

    high accuracy of the individual parts and the entire model, we con-

    clude that this model is accurate enough for further analysis.

    3.2. Measurement of open green space in the digital Garden City

    3.2.1. Summary statistics for open green space

    The results from the verified model show that the total area of

    open green space is 1422763.01m2, which is 35.16% of the total

    urban area. The area per capita, according to the population of

    30,000 set by Howard, is 47.43 m2.

    3.2.2. Accessibility analysis of open green space

    The statistics show that the shortest walking time from a resi-dential area tothe open greenspace is zero (for residentslivingnext

    door to an open green space). Residents living in the farthest areas

    have a travel time of 520s (82/3 min), and the average access time

    is 186.77s (about 3 min). The standard deviation of access time for

    the entire area is 86.24 s.

    Using a classification interval of 300s (5min), Fig. 4 shows a

    thematic map of the spatial variation in accessibility. Most people

    in the study area can access open space within 300s, whereas parts

    of theinnermost andoutermost rings haveaccesstimes in therange

    300520 s. According to statistics of spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS,

    some 14725 cells are within 0300 s, accounting for 89.10% of the

    four residential rings. Only 1747 (10.90%) cells have access times

    greater than 300s. Therefore, residents of the Garden City enjoy

    fairly good spatial accessibility.

    4. Discussion

    Zhujiajiao Town in Shanghai won the International Award

    for Livable Communities in 2008 (silver award for category B,

    which is aimed at populations of 20,00075,000) (United Nations

    Environment Programme, 2008). Therefore, we consider it a realis-

    tic reference for the digital Garden City model and its calculated

    accessibility given its population and urban characteristics. We

    modeled Zhujiajiaos township applying regular urban modeling

    procedure of modern cities in GIS, and analyzed its accessibility

    statistics in accordance with the process forthe digital GardenCity.

    The base map for the digitization is a regulatory land-use plan-

    ningmap. Boththe textof Zhujiajiaos Regulatory DetailedPlanning(20012020) and remote sensing image data obtained from Google

    Earth were used as references.

    4.1. Comparison of the modeling of classical theories and real

    cities

    By comparing the modeling process of the Garden City the-

    ory and Zhujiajiaos township, we can identify several differences

    between urban modeling in classical theories and the modern

    world, especially in terms of the modeling foundation and empha-

    sis, factors affecting model accuracy, and the requirements of

    modelers (Table 3).

    In addition, models based on theories may be limited because

    the data needed has not been explicitly presented in the original

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    Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635 31

    Fig. 3. From sketches (inHowards original work) to digital GardenCity (in ArcGIS 10).

    work. For example, Howard did not set the population distribution

    or house heights forhis GardenCity.Thereare also some incompat-

    ibilities between theoretical and real cities in terms of the different

    historical backgrounds. Thus, some land-use types do not exist in

    Garden City, such as multiple public utilities, and some land-use

    designs are no longer suitable for modern cities, such as ring-shaped traffic systems which were designed for gharries but are

    not suitable for cars. However, these non-existent land-use types

    and unsuitable designs provide wide scope for city-related studies.

    4.2. Similarity of land-use structures between Garden City and

    Zhujiajiao

    There are differences between the geographical and historical

    backgrounds of Garden Citys urbanarea and Zhujiajiaos township.

    However, there are also similarities, as can be demonstrated by

    land-use conditions for several urban functions. We divided land-

    use types of Garden Citys urban area and Zhujiajiaos township

    based on land-use type division in Code for Classification of Urban

    Land Use and the Planning Standards of the Development Land

    (Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the Peoples

    Republic of China, 2011) and corresponding urban functions. Area

    proportionand per capita indicators for land-usestructure arecom-

    pared (Table 4).

    The residential, transportation, and ecology land-use types are

    quite similar in both proportion and area per capita. The ecolog-ical land uses are mainly green space and water. Without water

    design, the proportion of green space in Garden City is equal to

    the sum of the water and green space in Zhujiajiao. The compari-

    son of land-use types for other functions shows large differences.

    For example, Garden City lacks public utilities, whereas Zhujiajiao

    has no industrial and warehousing areas, which cause differences

    in the land-use regions of multiple utilities, industrial areas, and

    logistics and warehouses. As Zhujiajiaos central industry, leisure

    tourism accounts for a larger proportion of commercial use than

    the Crystal Palace in Garden City. The difference in administra-

    tion and public services is partly caused by the number of sites

    of cultural relics in Zhujiajiao, with the enhancement and devel-

    opment of government during the past 100 years also playing a

    role.

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    Table 2

    Accuracy verification of digital Garden City model.

    Physical item Detail Data from original

    work

    Converted data

    from original work

    Measured data in

    digital model

    Relative

    error (%)

    Built area Area (round) 1000 acres 4046856.42 m2 4046375.77m2 0.01

    Length (radius) 1240 yards

    (approx. 3/4 miles)

    1133.86

    (1207.01)m

    1134.87 m 0.09

    Boulevards Length (width) 120 feet 36.58 m 36.58 m 0.00

    Central garden Area (round) 5.5 acres 22257.71 m2 22223.04 m2 0.16

    Central park Area (ring) 145 acres 586794.18 m2 586537.98 m2 0.04

    Crystal Palace Length (farthest distance to

    residents)

    600 yards 548.64 m 548.81 m 0.03

    Residential area Area (average area) 20 feet130 feet 6.10 m39.62 m Not expressed

    Count 5500 5500 Not expressed

    Area (the smallest area) 20 feet100 feet 6.10 m30.48 m Not expressed

    Count (residential population) 30,000 30,000 Not expressed

    Grand avenue Length (width) 420 feet 128.02 m 128.05 m 0.02

    Length (green belts length) 3 miles 4828.03 m 4827.73 m 0.01

    Area (ring) 115 acres 465388.49 m2 465330.97 m2 0.01

    Length (farthest distance to

    residents)

    240 yards 219.46 m 201.46 m 0.00

    School Area (total) 4 acres 16187.43 m2 16187.44 m2 0.00

    Count 6 6 6 0.00

    Gardens Area (total) 250 acres 1011714.11 m2 1068058.05m2 5.57

    Warehouses, factories, and markets Area (total) 82 acres 331842.23 m2 333530.21 m2 0.51

    Ring railway Length (perimeter) 4.5 miles 7242.05 m 7186.66 m 0.76

    Roads Length (total) 25 miles 40233.60 m 38763.32 m 3.65

    Areaaverage relative error 0.90

    Lengthaverage relative error 0.57

    Countaverage relative error 0.00

    As a well-recognized modern garden city, the land-use structure

    of Zhujiajiao reveals the demand of citizens for a livable and green

    urban environmentto some extent. Thesimilarity in theland useof

    Garden Citys urban area and Zhujiajiaos township demonstrates

    that Howards Garden City is livable and green, under a suitable

    land-use structureand area percapita,eventhough it wasdesigned

    more than 100 years ago.

    4.3. Comparison of open green space accessibility in Garden City

    and Zhujiajiaos township

    4.3.1. Accessibility analysis of Zhujiajiaos open green space

    The open green space in Zhujiajiaos township mainly con-

    sists of parks, squares, and structured green areas. We applied

    the relative travel impedance of Garden City, adding a relative

    Fig. 4. Classification map from the residential area to theopen green space (interval: 300s) of GardenCitys urban area.

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    Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635 33

    Table 3

    Comparison of modeling processesof classical theories and real cities.

    Items Modeling cities in classical theories Modeling real modern cities

    Modeling foundation Data list extracted from the text and diagrams Planning scheme or interpretation of the remote sensing

    image data

    Modeling e mphasis Systematic u nderstanding a nd p resentation o f the i deal

    scattered original work (predictivestudies are rare

    because of a lack of reality and spatiotemporal variation)

    Prediction and spatiotemporal studies

    Model accuracy Mostly controlled by data extraction and calculation,

    accumulated errors mainly caused by contradictionshiddenin the original work or proposed assumptions,

    careless geometric calculations, and data loss during

    vectorization

    Depends on themethods used in data transformation and

    theinterpretation of image data, errorscaused by aerialphoto techniques and interpretation

    Req uirem ent s o f m odelers Capable o f unde rs tanding t he e nt ir e t heo ry s ys tematically

    and recognizing the calculation sequence effectively

    because of theimplicit spatial logic

    Do not need to deal with the implicit spatial logic

    Table 4

    Comparison of land-use structures in GardenCitys urban area and Zhujiajiaos township.

    Codes Land-use types Area/m2 Proportion/% Area per capita/m2

    Garden City Zhujiajiao Garden City Zhujiajiao Garden City Zhujiajiao

    R Residential 1553438.46 3769343.51 38.39 39.77 51.78 58.44

    A Administration and public services 100275.25 510744.65 2.48 5.39 3.34 7.92

    B Commercial and business facilities 39200.25 853025.25 0.97 9.00 1.31 13.23

    M Industrial 271246.95 0.00 6.7 0.00 9.04 0.00W Logistics and warehouse 24658.07 0.00 0.61 0.00 0.82 0.00

    S Street and transportation 634800.39 1395792.39 15.69 14.73 21.16 21.64

    U Municipal utilities 0 27758.96 0 0.29 0.00 0.43

    G Green space 1422763.01 1428706.99 35.16 15.07 47.43 22.15

    E Water 0 1493151.31 0 15.75 0.00 23.15

    Total area 4046382.38 9478523.06 100 100 134.88 134.88

    Table 5

    Relative travel impedanceof different land-use types forwalking in Zhujiajiao.

    Land-use types Physical items Relative travel

    impedance

    Roads Streets and roads 1

    Residential areas First class residential, second class residential, traditional residential, and parking

    lots

    3

    Open green space Green area for environmental protection, structured green area, parks, and squares 4Administrative a reas Administrative a reas, p ublic u tilities, e ducation a reas, a nd c ultural-relic s ites 5

    Commercial- and industrial-relatedareas Leisure facilities, commercialareas, commercial-residentialcomplex, tourism

    featured business, external traffic areas, and municipal public utilities

    100

    Water Water 999

    impedance of 999 for water to represent the difficulty of walk-

    ing via water (Guo et al., 2012; Hu et al., 2005; Li et al., 2008)

    (Table 5). Commercialresidential complexes were grouped into

    commercial- and industrial-related areas, which have higher travel

    impedances than residential areas.

    According to our calculations, the shortest travel time from a

    residential area to an open green space is again zero, whereas

    the longest walking time is 219337.55s (approximately 365min).

    This is much longer than the maximum travel time in Garden

    City (520s). The average access time in Zhujiajiaos township is

    1038.04 s (approximately 17min), which is not long but still large

    compared with Garden City. The standard deviation of the access

    time over Zhujiajiaos entire residential area is 2522.37s. Clas-

    sification of the residential area based on a 300-s time interval

    shows that most residents can easily access open green space, but

    some areas (such as the southwest corner) have poor accessibility

    (Fig. 5).

    4.3.2. Comparison of the accessibility of open green space

    We compared the statistical results of a spatial analysis of the

    two cities (Table 6). The results indicate that residents of Zhujiajiao

    have good accessibility to open green space, with nearly half of the

    residential area located within 300s. However, the accessibility is

    still lower than inGarden City. Only77.98% of theresidentialareain

    Zhujiajiaos township has access to open green space within 600s,

    and 8.91% of the area is more than 1800s (30min) away from an

    opengreen space. Despite theworldwide recognitionof Zhujiajiaos

    green spaces, the planning and distribution of Garden Citys open

    green space is superior in terms of its accessibility.

    Table 6

    Comparison of access-time interval proportions on open green space accessibility

    in Garden Citysurban area and Zhujiajiaos township.

    Time intervals/s Area proportion

    Garden City (%) Zhujiajiao (%)

    0300 89.10 42.69

    300600 10.90 35.29

    600900 10.74

    9001200 1.78

    12001500 0.19

    15001800 0.40

    1800 8.91

    Sum 100.00 100.00

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    34 Z. Yuan et al. / Ecological Modelling 289 (2014) 2635

    Fig. 5. Classification map from theresidential area to the open green space (interval: 300s) of Zhujiajiaos township.

    5. Conclusion

    In this study, we built an accurate digital Garden City model

    in ArcGIS. The modeling procedure consists of an analysis of the

    original theory, the selection of an appropriate mathematical foun-

    dation, dataextraction and calculation, the systematic organization

    and design of an attribute structure, vectorization and digitization,

    verification of the model accuracy, and corrections to the model.

    Further quantitative studies on land-use structures and open green

    space accessibilitywere conducted on the basisof the digital model.Using the officially recognized garden city of Zhujiajiaos township

    as a reference, we showed that Howards Garden City has a similar

    land-use structure for residential, transportation, and ecology, and

    superior open green space planning. Our research expresses a new

    perspective for modelingand quantifyingclassical theory using GIS,

    and reveals the great value of the digitization of classical theories

    into models. The processes of data presentation and system design

    help us understand the theories in a clearer and more systematic

    way. In addition, characteristics that have been missed in previous

    qualitative analyses can be elicited by quantitative calculations and

    spatial analysis. Classical theories such as Garden City and other

    historical planning cases presented in text and diagrams can be

    restudied with the methods and creative perspectives promoted in

    this research.Our studyfirst systematically discussed the distinctions and dif-

    ficulties of modeling processes in classical theories and real cities,

    and then proposed a complete modeling procedure for classical

    theories. According to the urban functions of land-use types, we

    discovered similarities between the residential, transportation, and

    ecology land-use types, as wellas distinctions between administra-

    tive and public services, in Garden City and Zhujiajiao. The study

    also measured accessibility to open spaces, and demonstrated that

    all residents in Garden City can walk to open green space within

    9 min, which is much less than the maximum access time in Zhuji-

    ajiao. In future work, we will conduct further calculations with the

    digital model (Yuan et al., 2013b), compare more cities from across

    the world, and improve the model with regard to standardization,

    openness, and non-exclusivity.

    Acknowledgements

    This study wassupported by the National Natural Science Foun-

    dation of China under Grant (No. 40571119). We would like to

    express our gratitude to the editors at Editage for polishing the

    text and providing useful comments on this manuscript.

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